Picking apart Hoyer saying he will spend this off season.

Zvbxrpl

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Sign Stroman 25 AAV. then Seager 25AAV
As much as I want to say that MLB owners "totally not" (*wink wink*) scheming quietly to band together/not pay big $$$ anymore, I think you'd be incredibly naive to think these two come here for $25 mil a year.

Pen. I would stick at the 10M range

2 losers from the #4 battle.
Wieck & Morgan LH pen arms
Wick & Heuer RH set up.

So they need a closer. Jed closed out with pitching will be the #1 priority and I can see him being aggressive on this front.
Looking at names available, I see an in-house candidate emerging for next year's closer, with potential to make a move at next year's deadline. Kimbrel and Felipe Vasquez have club options, and can't imagine the Sox/Bucs don't pick them up.

Sooo...its Brad Hand, coming off a so-so year making north of $10 mil a year. Alex Colome coming off a year he was target practice--so if you're looking to 'buy low.' If you believe Trevor Rosenthal can be healthy long enough to close out 20 games, he's a name, but probably isn't coming on a team-friendly deal.

Otherwise, you're going to have to kick the tires on guys on the wrong side of 34 like Adam Ottovino, Dellin Betances, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller, or Kirby Yates--and I think only Jansen/Miller out of these guys have had years as established closers.

I think Heuer or Wick could be in-house options, especially if homegrowing arms like Scott Efross or Manuel Rodriguez as depth in the pen pre-2022 trade deadline maintain success each had this year. Cubs rolled with Rondon before paying a high price for Chapman after Rondon struggled.
 

Chicagosports89

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As much as I want to say that MLB owners "totally not" (*wink wink*) scheming quietly to band together/not pay big $$$ anymore, I think you'd be incredibly naive to think these two come here for $25 mil a year.


Looking at names available, I see an in-house candidate emerging for next year's closer, with potential to make a move at next year's deadline. Kimbrel and Felipe Vasquez have club options, and can't imagine the Sox/Bucs don't pick them up.

Sooo...its Brad Hand, coming off a so-so year making north of $10 mil a year. Alex Colome coming off a year he was target practice--so if you're looking to 'buy low.' If you believe Trevor Rosenthal can be healthy long enough to close out 20 games, he's a name, but probably isn't coming on a team-friendly deal.

Otherwise, you're going to have to kick the tires on guys on the wrong side of 34 like Adam Ottovino, Dellin Betances, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller, or Kirby Yates--and I think only Jansen/Miller out of these guys have had years as established closers.

I think Heuer or Wick could be in-house options, especially if homegrowing arms like Scott Efross or Manuel Rodriguez as depth in the pen pre-2022 trade deadline maintain success each had this year. Cubs rolled with Rondon before paying a high price for Chapman after Rondon struggled.
I'd let alzolay compete as closer. I don't see him as a starter but think he could be a dominant pen arm. I think he has a good mentality for it too
 

CSF77

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As much as I want to say that MLB owners "totally not" (*wink wink*) scheming quietly to band together/not pay big $$$ anymore, I think you'd be incredibly naive to think these two come here for $25 mil a year.


Looking at names available, I see an in-house candidate emerging for next year's closer, with potential to make a move at next year's deadline. Kimbrel and Felipe Vasquez have club options, and can't imagine the Sox/Bucs don't pick them up.

Sooo...its Brad Hand, coming off a so-so year making north of $10 mil a year. Alex Colome coming off a year he was target practice--so if you're looking to 'buy low.' If you believe Trevor Rosenthal can be healthy long enough to close out 20 games, he's a name, but probably isn't coming on a team-friendly deal.

Otherwise, you're going to have to kick the tires on guys on the wrong side of 34 like Adam Ottovino, Dellin Betances, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller, or Kirby Yates--and I think only Jansen/Miller out of these guys have had years as established closers.

I think Heuer or Wick could be in-house options, especially if homegrowing arms like Scott Efross or Manuel Rodriguez as depth in the pen pre-2022 trade deadline maintain success each had this year. Cubs rolled with Rondon before paying a high price for Chapman after Rondon struggled.

Seager's last year was 13M. I'm not sure if he has earned the right to jump into the 30M range.

Stroman has never proven to be a top tier talent to date. He is a fucking #2 pitcher and the staff ace here. 25 mil is a solid offer for a guy that has never had a 4+ fWAR season.

Just being real. We are not talking about a Cy-Young winner or a guy that sits in the 2-2.5 ERA zone year after year.

As far as a 30+M arm. Max but he is short term. But longer term 25AAV for a 30 YO. 7 years sure.
 

CSF77

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But ya the age of the 30+m mega might be over. I see it as long term 25M range. 30+ are for hired guns in a winning window.

We saw this with Bauer. He went big on a short. Yankees are the Yankees with Cole. They write their own rules. Boston somewhat the same thing with Sale.

Cubs can pay top but choose not to. Marcus is a 7/175. That is a fair offer. It is Lester cash and that is a fair offer for a guy that is not a true 1. Could he be? Maybe but not to date.
 
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CSF77

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On pen arms. I can see Jed signing Yates hoping for a rebound. That has been his MO.

Wade Davis is another that I could see in a mothball attempt to get some pitchers corrected in the pitching lab

So to be honest I don't see a big name. I see some broken guys that they feel are fixable vs over spending on a closer.

Now if they are in it then the deadline is when closers are hot. So I see maybe 2 has been closers in to pass on how they fell apart stories and how not to suck as you age.
 

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Anyone else get the email just a bit ago from ricketts? He basically said to expect the cubs to be active in free agency and to compete in 2022 for a playoff spot.

certainly wasn’t the language you’d expect if the plan was to still suck next year and to not be active in free agency this offseason
 

Chicagosports89

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As far as the pen, I wouldn't spend much money. I'd have Alzolay, Thompson, Marquez, Wick, Heuer all penciled in down there. I'd love to sign a couple SP's and see Kilian end up in the rotation. Then potentially move Steele into the pen as well. A pen with those arms could be really good.
 

knoxville7

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As far as the pen, I wouldn't spend much money. I'd have Alzolay, Thompson, Marquez, Wick, Heuer all penciled in down there. I'd love to sign a couple SP's and see Kilian end up in the rotation. Then potentially move Steele into the pen as well. A pen with those arms could be really good.
Agreed. Some starting pitching and an OF would be on my list
 

Chicagosports89

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Agreed. Some starting pitching and an OF would be on my list
If they really plan on competing next year, I'd be all in on scherzer. He just continues to dominate and hasn't really seen a decline in his stuff.

I'd think the white Sox would be all over a guy like him to give them a playoff tested ace to also help the young guys learn.
 

knoxville7

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If they really plan on competing next year, I'd be all in on scherzer. He just continues to dominate and hasn't really seen a decline in his stuff.

I'd think the white Sox would be all over a guy like him to give them a playoff tested ace to also help the young guys learn.
Yeah, I mean if they are really going for it going for it next year he makes sense. At the same time, it’d probably be a hard sell to a guy at his age that the cubs are ready to go win next year…even if there’s a splash signing or two before max makes a decision
 

CSF77

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Yeah, I mean if they are really going for it going for it next year he makes sense. At the same time, it’d probably be a hard sell to a guy at his age that the cubs are ready to go win next year…even if there’s a splash signing or two before max makes a decision
Not a intelligent signing. I would rather believe Stroman would be in the cross hairs.

To be a smart signing the Cubs window of talent would be on the team vs A ball or below.

As of right no the only semi sure thing is Davis next year. The rest is AAAA talent getting a shot.

It is going to take more than one guy to make 2022 competitive.

What would it take?

Let's see.

1. Sign Stroman. That gives a solid #2-3 type to go along with Kyle. Can scale him up but 23M AAV is fair.

2. Trade for Kimbrel. Flip the Sox 2 players from the depth pool. 10-20 rank range.

3. Resign Tepera. It worked.

4. Invest into a leverage lefty.

That gets them close to what they were pre deadline. Let's face it this is 50-60M just to get back. And that factors in the hitting falling back. Let's face it even if it regresses the traded hitters shat the bed so the bar is not high here.

SP. Let's see youth vs underperforming vets. Come on now. This is a wash with upside potential as the hitting was.


So the Cubs have plenty of questions going in. Might makes sense to pull deals for stabity.

Kimbrel make sense? No. If they are in it in July? Yes.

Signing a 37 YO ace? No why would he bother? So he can waste his twilight watching bad baseball?

Only a Cub fan would entertain the idea.
 

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Yeah, I mean if they are really going for it going for it next year he makes sense. At the same time, it’d probably be a hard sell to a guy at his age that the cubs are ready to go win next year…even if there’s a splash signing or two before max makes a decision
Everytime I hear this kind of talk, I think of two things 1) Kenny Williams and his yearly quick fixes and 2) Miracle Hair growing cream. What do they have in common?

Neither one of them work.
 

Chicagosports89

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Not a intelligent signing. I would rather believe Stroman would be in the cross hairs.

To be a smart signing the Cubs window of talent would be on the team vs A ball or below.

As of right no the only semi sure thing is Davis next year. The rest is AAAA talent getting a shot.

It is going to take more than one guy to make 2022 competitive.

What would it take?

Let's see.

1. Sign Stroman. That gives a solid #2-3 type to go along with Kyle. Can scale him up but 23M AAV is fair.

2. Trade for Kimbrel. Flip the Sox 2 players from the depth pool. 10-20 rank range.

3. Resign Tepera. It worked.

4. Invest into a leverage lefty.

That gets them close to what they were pre deadline. Let's face it this is 50-60M just to get back. And that factors in the hitting falling back. Let's face it even if it regresses the traded hitters shat the bed so the bar is not high here.

SP. Let's see youth vs underperforming vets. Come on now. This is a wash with upside potential as the hitting was.


So the Cubs have plenty of questions going in. Might makes sense to pull deals for stabity.

Kimbrel make sense? No. If they are in it in July? Yes.

Signing a 37 YO ace? No why would he bother? So he can waste his twilight watching bad baseball?

Only a Cub fan would entertain the idea.
Personally I'd go stroman and someone like Paxton or old Yankee whose on Minnesota now, can't remember his name right now. I was just mentioning Scherzer if they really plan on competing. Offense I'd look at Correa and Schwarber. Hope the nl gets dh. And put Correa at ss, hoerner at 2b and madrigal dh. Bullpen could just be loaded with young arms. I'd bring guys like chafin and tepera back cheap, but im not paying any real money for BP arms
 

TL1961

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Not a intelligent signing. I would rather believe Stroman would be in the cross hairs.

To be a smart signing the Cubs window of talent would be on the team vs A ball or below.

As of right no the only semi sure thing is Davis next year. The rest is AAAA talent getting a shot.

It is going to take more than one guy to make 2022 competitive.

What would it take?

Let's see.

1. Sign Stroman. That gives a solid #2-3 type to go along with Kyle. Can scale him up but 23M AAV is fair.

2. Trade for Kimbrel. Flip the Sox 2 players from the depth pool. 10-20 rank range.

3. Resign Tepera. It worked.

4. Invest into a leverage lefty.

That gets them close to what they were pre deadline. Let's face it this is 50-60M just to get back. And that factors in the hitting falling back. Let's face it even if it regresses the traded hitters shat the bed so the bar is not high here.

SP. Let's see youth vs underperforming vets. Come on now. This is a wash with upside potential as the hitting was.


So the Cubs have plenty of questions going in. Might makes sense to pull deals for stabity.

Kimbrel make sense? No. If they are in it in July? Yes.

Signing a 37 YO ace? No why would he bother? So he can waste his twilight watching bad baseball?

Only a Cub fan would entertain the idea.
There is no reason to give two players if you want Kimbrel back. Just take on the salary
 

CSF77

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Ricketts: Cubs Will Be “Active” In Free Agency

By Steve Adams | October 15, 2021 at 5:58pm CDT

Three full offseasons have elapsed since the Cubs signed Yu Darvish to a six-year contract, and the only multi-year arrangement they’ve signed with a free agent in the offseasons since was a two-year, $5MM deal to utilityman Daniel Descalso. Even including the in-season three-year contract Craig Kimbrel signed in 2019, the Cubs’ total free-agent expenditures over the past three years comes to just under $82MM — about 65 percent of the total figure they gave to Darvish alone. Suffice it to say, they haven’t been especially active — at least not by the standards of a former $200MM-payroll club that plays in one of the game’s largest markets.
Team chairman Tom Ricketts has attributed the downturn in spending to myriad factors. As far back as 2019, he claimed that the Cubs “didn’t have any more” resources to commit to payroll, and in the years since he’s referenced the “dead-weight loss” associated with paying the luxury tax and “biblical” losses during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The 2021 season, of course, saw the Cubs blow up the core of their World Series-winning 2016 team. They traded Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez (as well as several other veterans) prior to the deadline. Now, with a much cleaner payroll slate, Ricketts has publicly indicated for the first time in several years that the club plans to spend to some extent this winter.
“We have the resources necessary to compete in 2022 and beyond, and we will use them,” Ricketts wrote in a letter to season ticketholders Friday. “We will be active in free agency and continue to make thoughtful decisions to bolster our roster.” He goes on to stress that the organization “respects” the “high expectations” of fans and shares their desire to win. “We commit to fielding a competitive team reflective of your unrivaled support,” Ricketts added.
Cubs fans will surely be relieved to see any ownership mention of spending after a few seasons marked by payroll cuts. That said, Ricketts’ use of “thoughtful” might not set the stage for major expenditures — particularly when taken in conjunction with president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer’s recent comments about being “opportunistic.” Hoyer noted that the type of flashy, aggressive moves made when teams strive to “win the offseason” can quickly become detrimental once the initial excitement fades.
Having gone out of his way to promise that the club will be active in free agency, Ricketts will surely push the front office to spend to some degree. The more meaningful question will come down to what constitutes an “active” offseason, particularly after Hoyer’s more measured comments last week. Gordon Wittenmyer’s recent interview with Carlos Correa over at NBC Sports Chicago will no doubt have Cubs fans dreaming of a mega-deal for a new franchise shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine the team going in such an aggressive direction not even a year into this retooling/rebuilding process.
Hoyer has been clear that this won’t be a full teardown to the extent of the Cubs’ prior rebuild, but Chicago is lacking depth all over the diamond. Pouring so many resources into one position at a time when there’s a dire need for starting pitching, outfield help and long-term options elsewhere in the infield would register as a surprise. The Cubs probably do have that type of financial wherewithal — we’ve seen as much in the past — but Hoyer’s comments portend a series of smaller-scale signings aimed at addressing many areas of need up and down the roster.
 

CSF77

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I'm using the words. Thoughtful and opportunistic.

Thoughtful: We will spend but not all in one basket.

Opportunistic: We will buy low on guys.

#1: SP Good Bad Overpriced

Brett Anderson (34)
Chase Anderson (34)
Tyler Anderson (32)
Chris Archer (33)
Jake Arrieta (36)
Trevor Bauer (31) – can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM
Dylan Bundy (29)
Trevor Cahill (33)
Alex Cobb (34)
Johnny Cueto (36) — $22MM club option ($5MM buyout)
Zach Davies (29)
Anthony DeSclafani (32)
Danny Duffy (33)
Mike Fiers (37)
Mike Foltynewicz (30)
Kevin Gausman (31)
Chi Chi Gonzalez (30)
Jon Gray (30)
Zack Greinke (38)
J.A. Happ (39)
Matt Harvey (33)
Andrew Heaney (31)
Rich Hill (42)
Merrill Kelly (32) — $4.25MM club option ($500K buyout)
Clayton Kershaw (34)
Yusei Kikuchi (31) — Mariners can exercise four-year, $66MM extension; if not, Kikuchi has one-year, $13MM player option
Kwang-Hyun Kim (33)
Corey Kluber (36)
Wade LeBlanc (37)
Jon Lester (38)
Michael Lorenzen (30)
Jordan Lyles (31)
Carlos Martinez (30) — $17MM club option ($500K buyout; contract also contains $18MM club option for 2023)
Steven Matz (31)
Wade Miley (35) — $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Matt Moore (33)
Sean Nolin (32)
James Paxton (33)
Wily Peralta (33)
Martin Perez (31)
Michael Pineda (33)
Jose Quintana (33)
Robbie Ray (30)
Garrett Richards (34) — $10MM club option
Carlos Rodon (29)
Eduardo Rodriguez (29)
Aaron Sanchez (29)
Max Scherzer (37)
Matt Shoemaker (35)
Drew Smyly (33)
Marcus Stroman (30)
Noah Syndergaard (29)
Jose Urena (30)
Vince Velasquez (30)
Justin Verlander (39)
Michael Wacha (30)
Alex Wood (31)

We can go one here. Most of these guys I know little about but those might be guys targeted because Jed sees something in them.

SS would be #2.
Back up catcher #3.
Closer #4.


So with what was said. I still believe if Jed can get Rodon at a low price or a incentive based deal that has escalators with innings pitched marks it falls under opportunistic.

Stroman is a guy that I can see Jed targeting and paying him Darvish money. He has 1000 innings on his arm right now. Last year he made 18.9M so we are talking 20M year 1 with a upscale. He started 33 game. Which lead the league. 4 years of 30 games pitched +.

I just really see him as the #1 target this off season. Rodon is a if he takes our deal guy.
 

CSF77

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There is no reason to give two players if you want Kimbrel back. Just take on the salary

Why even resign if you don't want talent in return.

Kimbrel is worth 2x 45 scaled prospects. The buyers would be teams in the window.

If Jed goes out and buys pitching. IE gets a 1 and 1A and pushes Hendricks back to MOR (Which he is) then lets the kids fight for the 4/5. Locks down a SS. I'm not saying Correa. That would be noted as a #1 goal and not a thoughtful signing.

Shortstops

Javier Baez (29) 4.5 bWAR (Nice come back)
Carlos Correa (27) 7.2 bWAR
Mike Freeman (34) -0.5 bWAR
Freddy Galvis (32) 1 bWAR
Erik Gonzalez (30) -0.4 bWAR
Jose Iglesias (32)-0.6 bWAR
Miguel Rojas (33) — $5.5MM club option vests with 500 PAs in 2021 ($500K buyout)
Corey Seager (28) 3.7 bWAR
Marcus Semien (31) 7.1 bWAR (Going to get paid)
Andrelton Simmons (32) 1.4 bWAR
Trevor Story (29) 4.2 bWAR
Chris Taylor (31) 2.7 bWAR (Dark Horse)
Jonathan Villar (31) 1.8 bWAR

The most bang for the buck has to be Semien. I believe that he will ask very high as his value is up with Correa minus 4 years of control. My personal fav is Seager. I'm not sure if Jed will pay what it takes to sign him. Villar is a intelligent signing. But he is not a starting SS.

It's a tough call but I'm leaning towards Seager. If they plan to be fluid then Villar and Taylor become higher priority.

End of the day I would much rather have a SS to build the IF around. They are not going to go to 30M AAV which it will take to sign Semien or Correa. So that pushes the envelope to the 2nd tier guys. Seager, Story and Baez. Story has interest. Baez should resign to play with his BFF.

But you never know. Jed might target Simmons for well under market and play the D first hand and let the O come from elsewhere. It would be a mistake. 2018 was the last year he was relevant.
 

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But ya the age of the 30+m mega might be over. I see it as long term 25M range. 30+ are for hired guns in a winning window.

We saw this with Bauer. He went big on a short. Yankees are the Yankees with Cole. They write their own rules. Boston somewhat the same thing with Sale.

Cubs can pay top but choose not to. Marcus is a 7/175. That is a fair offer. It is Lester cash and that is a fair offer for a guy that is not a true 1. Could he be? Maybe but not to date.
Lester had a chip and playoff numbers.
 

Castor76

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I wouldn't be mad if the Cubs offered Scherzer a 2 year 60M deal with bonuses that could make it 70M if he got 200 IP in the year. Maybe have a 2M bonus at 175 IP and 3M at 200 IP. Maybe have a 3rd year vesting option that could lock in with 350 IP over the two seasons. If the Cubs are going to have 100-125M in payroll flexibility, Scherzer might no be a bad get. He has a ton of playoff experience and could at least be a flippable piece for a team in contention should the season not go well.
 

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