I think he should have taken the deal with the Colts, and then kept the 4th pick and taken Andersen or Jalen?
I think if you trade to #4, you would have done it for a pick swap, '24 1st, and a 2nd in '23 and 24. Offer one less 2nd, but throw Pittman in as an alternative, unlikely but try it. Now you got the... #35, some futures. And you are the spot whoever wants Richardson is trading up to. Let's say you pulled the trade off just this past Friday. Now Richardson is working out for his pro day, spotlight on him, and every team knowing you are the trade partner to get him
If for some reason the Cardinals do get involved, and make a trade, congrats your compensation (in addition to Colts haul) is Will Anderson Jr. But likely you get a partner, and the cost is '24 1st, this year's 2nd, and whatever additional spice they can add to outdo the other bids, because that is the default bid. Maybe you also get a future 2nd, or someone offering a player in addition. Lions, Raiders, Panthers, Falcons, Titans all bidders. Even the Jets if Rodgers wait is too long.
If you "fail" to pull off the double trade down, the only potential fail I see if Cardinals trading down at #3 to QB seeking team, Will Anderson being compensation makes it pretty reasonable. But I doubt you fail in the endeavor. So you likely get #1 swapped to about #9 in the end, '24 Colts 1st, two Colts 2nd's, A team's '24 1st, '23 & '24 2nd, and maybe a sweetener.
(The way people add a swapped pick as a "2nd' 1st is annoying but I'll play along). You get three 1sts, four 2nd's. Which superchargers your next two drafts. '23 draft approximately #9, two picks in the 30-40s, Ravens #53 still. '24 draft you have THREE 1st round picks, three 2nd's. Also Colts I think as a landing spot for a QB becomes a '24 top 10 pick, they are a mess. A Panthers type team with Richardson has a lower ceiling that Panthers with Stroud, so that pick's value is increased. I get thats a little TOO far down the line to see as a GM, but think diversifying your future 1sts betters the chances they are top 5-10.
Because of this as a scenario with actual insurance policies to it, I also subscribe to Bears getting a "good" deal, not a great one. Which I think is how Poles wants to operate, he seems to want to strike fair deals, and be hospitable to other league GMs. There's just no way we shouldn't have gotten the Panthers 2nd this year (instead of #61). Which I think is kind of dumb, they wouldn't do the same for him holding the #1, but whatever. Still stoked about DJ Moore but think the possibilities were there