Post Draft Mock Offseason

RacerX

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If I was GM, I would not invest $80 million in ARob.

Not in the same cringe ballpark as Quinn, just instinctively seems like a poor investment.
 

rawdawg

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what if the bears got a draft pick(s) back in the Daniels for hurst deal? I’m not sure @remydat meant it would be a straight up swap...maybe he did. I think if the bears got like a 3rd or 4th round pick back in the deal, it’d be worth considering

Not to me. And it's not that I'm sold on Daniels or anything, but a starting caliber OG is worth more than a backup TE. Even with the extra draft pick, I'd just hold on to Daniels. If Daniels is good, I'd gladly pay him what he's worth. If I can't pay him then could still get a comp pick for him. Hurst gives you 0 upside. He was overdrafted, isn't very productive, and will be 28 before he takes his next snap. 3rd or 4th round pick might have upside, but not as much as a guard that hasn't even turned 24 yet.
 

remydat

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I still wouldn't re-sign ARob yet. The Bears have no reason to pay him 20M/year when the market this offseason hasn't dictated you need to pay him that much. And ARob has no reason to sign that deal without seeing if the post-Covid cap number will go up in 2022. Plus with Fields, I would gear the offense and weapons toward a more vertical passing attack. While Robinson can definitely get vertical, Fields excelled with speedy WRs who DBs can't stay with for 2.5-3 seconds. I also look at Houston with Watson last year. Watson was great already with Hopkins, but having a bunch of speedy guys running crossers and deep corners and outs led to a career best season for him. That's the kind of offense Fields had at Ohio St, and what I see as the best fit at this level. Not to mention, it's basically what Nagy ran with KC the last couple years, and what I think he would love to run in Chicago.

I don't mind the Hicks and Graham cuts, but they would have happened by now if they were in the cards. I'd love a Breeland signing. I'd even add a DE because of Edwards being out the first 2 weeks (and Tonga probably being inactive most games).

But that Daniels/Hurst trade is terrible, IMO. Daniels simply has way more value than Hurst. I'm not trading a starting OG for what would be a #2 TE here, who's also 4 years older. If Daniels shows he can improve and stay healthy, then it's a no brainer to pay him 5-10Mil at 24 years old. You're not even thinking about a long-term deal with Hurst. For all the stuff about needing 2 TEs for this offense, when the Bears were putting up 30ppg against bad defenses late in the year, Graham wasn't on the field 1/2 the time.

The Texans weren't an actual good team though. There is something to be said for having a reliable target to help move the chains which is what I view ARob as. You have other guys to help get vertical but when it is 3rd and 5, having a bunch of vertical guys isn't as useful as having a guy that can make the tough catch and get a first down.

We differ on Daniels. Whitehair can't realistically be moved and I view Borom as more of a RG. where does Daniels play in 2022? He isn't worth 5-10m more than Mustopher IMO. He has been an average to below average G/C for 3 years now. As for Hurst, depending on how 2021 goes, I would possibly resign him before I would Daniels as there is no natural replacement for him as the move TE as Kmet is the inline TE.
 

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Not to me. And it's not that I'm sold on Daniels or anything, but a starting caliber OG is worth more than a backup TE. Even with the extra draft pick, I'd just hold on to Daniels. If Daniels is good, I'd gladly pay him what he's worth. If I can't pay him then could still get a comp pick for him. Hurst gives you 0 upside. He was overdrafted, isn't very productive, and will be 28 before he takes his next snap. 3rd or 4th round pick might have upside, but not as much as a guard that hasn't even turned 24 yet.

that’s fair. I just also think it’s fair to think we have some young guys not about to hit FA, that we can groom to take Daniels spot, while picking up a TE replacement for graham that saves us $$ for this season.

I think it kinda depends on what style offense the bears use with fields. Do they want to use a lot of 2 TE sets? If so, graham can’t be relied on to block anyone. Hurst, I’m not real familiar with his blocking abilities to be completely honest, but it’s gotta be better than Jimmy’s lol

now, maybe it’d just be better to cut graham and sign a blocking TE in FA. As long as said blocking TE can catch the ball a little bit
 

remydat

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I would sooner trade Allen Robinson II than extend him. Either way, I am as done with him as a Bear as much as he is done with the Bears. Lets get back that 2022 first that was away for Justin Fields and get the cap flexibility to drop ten million on Eric Fisher for a one year deal.

If you could get a 1st for ARob then I would trade him in a heartbeat but realistically not sure that is going to happen.
 

ThatGuyRyan

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The top 20 from last year (yards) - starting to change my stance on this a little but I think you still pay Arob. (Drafted in the 2nd btw) :p
1620164844024.png

First Round: 8
Second Round: 3
Third Round: 5
Fifth Round: 2
Sixth Round: 1
UDFA: 1
 

vabearsfan15

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No point in cutting/trading Hicks and Miller now. If we couldn't fetch any draft picks before draft, I don't think anyone is interested now that most have filled their needs. Also, teams don't want to take on Hick's 12 mil salary and the benefit of cutting Miller is so miniscule, we might as well keep him on since we have no depth at wide receiver.

Jimmy Graham should be first cut/restructured if we need to make cap space.

I'm all for letting the young guys battle out on the Offensive Line. Maybe add a cheap vet on a prove it deal incase their is an injury. But for now, its time to see what we have. At the end of last season some of those guys performed well. Between Mustipher, Bars, Jenkins, Borom, Simmons, Hambright, we have plenty of guys to duke it out for positions. That of course in addition to Whitehair, Ifedi, and Daniels

I think the plan right now though is to sit back and see who else teams cut and becomes available. If there is a decent wide receiver, tight end, or even young defensive end upgrade from Akiem Hicks, that may change some things. Also keep an eye out to see what cheap vets options we can get on the OL.
 

remydat

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Not to me. And it's not that I'm sold on Daniels or anything, but a starting caliber OG is worth more than a backup TE. Even with the extra draft pick, I'd just hold on to Daniels. If Daniels is good, I'd gladly pay him what he's worth. If I can't pay him then could still get a comp pick for him. Hurst gives you 0 upside. He was overdrafted, isn't very productive, and will be 28 before he takes his next snap. 3rd or 4th round pick might have upside, but not as much as a guard that hasn't even turned 24 yet.

Hurst isn't a backup TE. He was 14th in the NFL in yards at TE and is more of a downfield threat than Kmet. If we play 2 TE sets about 35% of the time and then if they split the other 70% of snaps 60-40 in favor of Kmet then you get Kmet playing 77% of snaps {(35% + (70% * 60%)} and Hurst playing 63% of the time {35% + (70% * 40%)}.
 

remydat

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If I was GM, I would not invest $80 million in ARob.

Not in the same cringe ballpark as Quinn, just instinctively seems like a poor investment.

You really aren't going to. Realistically it is a 12 million cap hit for this year and 21 million for next year after which you can cut him and save either 12 million in 2023 (8m dead cap) or 16 million 2024 (4 million dead cap). So it is more like a 2 year deal worth 41 million with the ability to continue it beyond that if he remains a 1200 yard WR.

That actually saves cap space relative to franchising him 2 years in a row without pissing him off because he is guaranteed to get 41 million the next 2 years rather than having to play with the uncertainty of an injury.

Having said that if we can trade him not opposed to it but trying to force him to play on the tag this year is a recipe for him to become a locker room issue with a rookie QB. Just not a good way to start off Fields career. You need to sign him longer team if he stays or fine trade him. I want no part of him being disgruntled and bringing the locker room down with a rookie QB there.
 

rawdawg

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The Texans weren't an actual good team though. There is something to be said for having a reliable target to help move the chains which is what I view ARob as. You have other guys to help get vertical but when it is 3rd and 5, having a bunch of vertical guys isn't as useful as having a guy that can make the tough catch and get a first down.

We differ on Daniels. Whitehair can't realistically be moved and I view Borom as more of a RG. where does Daniels play in 2022? He isn't worth 5-10m more than Mustopher IMO. He has been an average to below average G/C for 3 years now. As for Hurst, depending on how 2021 goes, I would possibly resign him before I would Daniels as there is no natural replacement for him as the move TE as Kmet is the inline TE.

Texans being good or not doesn't matter. And I agree about having a reliable target. But a $20M reliable target is a tough pill to swallow. I think that's where a guy like Kmet should come in. Not to mention whoever they could get to replace Graham as TE2, and you still have Cohen and Montgomery in short yardage. Robinson's true value IMO is beating man coverage on the outside, which is where he would be missed.

As for Daniels, I think if he plays well then he plays somewhere in 2021. I certainly am not penciling in a 5th round pick in his spot this or next year, before I see Borom play. And like I said, if somehow Daniels is good and Borom manages to show a ton of promise, then I'd rather have a solid 2021 guard + comp pick in 2023 than Hayden Hurst. Hurst is nothing.
 

remydat

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No point in cutting/trading Hicks and Miller now. If we couldn't fetch any draft picks before draft, I don't think anyone is interested now that most have filled their needs. Also, teams don't want to take on Hick's 12 mil salary and the benefit of cutting Miller is so miniscule, we might as well keep him on since we have no depth at wide receiver.

Jimmy Graham should be first cut/restructured if we need to make cap space.

I'm all for letting the young guys battle out on the Offensive Line. Maybe add a cheap vet on a prove it deal incase their is an injury. But for now, its time to see what we have. At the end of last season some of those guys performed well. Between Mustipher, Bars, Jenkins, Borom, Simmons, Hambright, we have plenty of guys to duke it out for positions. That of course in addition to Whitehair, Ifedi, and Daniels

I think the plan right now though is to sit back and see who else teams cut and becomes available. If there is a decent wide receiver, tight end, or even young defensive end upgrade from Akiem Hicks, that may change some things. Also keep an eye out to see what cheap vets options we can get on the OL.

Incorrect. Every dollar spent on Hicks and Miller is a dollar you can't roll over. Unless Hicks and Miller are the difference between a SB team or not then save the 14 million. Even if you don't spend it this year then it becomes 14 million you can spend next year.
 

remydat

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Texans being good or not doesn't matter. And I agree about having a reliable target. But a $20M reliable target is a tough pill to swallow. I think that's where a guy like Kmet should come in. Not to mention whoever they could get to replace Graham as TE2, and you still have Cohen and Montgomery in short yardage. Robinson's true value IMO is beating man coverage on the outside, which is where he would be missed.

As for Daniels, I think if he plays well then he plays somewhere in 2021. I certainly am not penciling in a 5th round pick in his spot this or next year, before I see Borom play. And like I said, if somehow Daniels is good and Borom manages to show a ton of promise, then I'd rather have a solid 2021 guard + comp pick in 2023 than Hayden Hurst. Hurst is nothing.

It does matter because they struggled when the vertical passing was cut off like it was when Watson played the Bears. They didn't really have a WR that could consistently win in the short and intermediate game one on one which becomes important when facing better defenses. It also takes longer for vertical routes to develop which leads to sacks.

I am not penciling Broom in for his spot. I said it would be Fisher, Whitehair, Mustipher, Ifedi and Jenkins this year. Daniels simply isn't a significant enough upgrade over any of those guys. He and Ifedi had basically the same grade and that is with Ifedi again playing a tougher schedule because Daniels got his ass handed to him by TB and then was gone for the rest of the year.

In 2022 any one of Borom, Mustipher, Bars, Ifedi, etc can give you what Daniels does. He legitimately has not distinguished himself relative to any of those guys.
 

rawdawg

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Hurst isn't a backup TE. He was 14th in the NFL in yards at TE and is more of a downfield threat than Kmet. If we play 2 TE sets about 35% of the time and then if they split the other 70% of snaps 60-40 in favor of Kmet then you get Kmet playing 77% of snaps {(35% + (70% * 60%)} and Hurst playing 63% of the time {35% + (70% * 40%)}.

Eh. 14th in NFL in yards, but played 71% of the snaps for the team that threw the ball more than any other. Robert Tonyan had more yards and he played 61%. At 28, and in a clear timeshare, he'd get nowhere near those numbers. And he's not nearly the redzone weapon at 6'4" that a guy like Graham is at 6'7". There's a reason they declined his 5th year option, and it's not just because they are in cap hell. He's actually a below average player.
 

vanavyman

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Extend A Rob
Extend Nichols

I would personally look for a cheaper option at UTE, but I doubt they will

Hicks, I think they keep, but if they moved him and rolled the cap space into next season I would not be opposed.

I do not think we sign anyone of note. If they think Jenkins can play LT then let him do that, I wouldn't sink real money into a OT coming off a major injury.

There is more 2022 cap space. but it is far from a flush year.

2022 is the target.
Really like the idea of signing A Rob and Nichols. They need to mod Quinn's contract to get some money.
 

rawdawg

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It does matter because they struggled when the vertical passing was cut off like it was when Watson played the Bears. They didn't really have a WR that could consistently win in the short and intermediate game one on one which becomes important when facing better defenses. It also takes longer for vertical routes to develop which leads to sacks.

I am not penciling Broom in for his spot. I said it would be Fisher, Whitehair, Mustipher, Ifedi and Jenkins this year. Daniels simply isn't a significant enough upgrade over any of those guys. He and Ifedi had basically the same grade and that is with Ifedi again playing a tougher schedule because Daniels got his ass handed to him by TB and then was gone for the rest of the year.

In 2022 any one of Borom, Mustipher, Bars, Ifedi, etc can give you what Daniels does. He legitimately has not distinguished himself relative to any of those guys.

Mustipher, Bars and Ifedi are all older than Daniels. 2 of them wouldn't have seen the field if Daniels didn't get hurt, so I don't know how you can say they give you what he does. Borom hasn't played a snap yet, and probably won't for a long time. I'm not trying to argue that Daniels has distinguished himself here, but his competition is a 5th round rookie, a UDFA undersized C with 5 games of decent play, a UDFA with maybe 2 games of decent play if you squint and add all his partial games together, and a failed 1st round pick with a handful of decent play at RG that would also require 5-10M (since he's getting 4.5 this year) to re-sign this offseason.

If your reasoning is that Daniels isn't good enough, you at least have to admit he has the most upside of those other guys you named because he's younger than all but 1 and was more highly regarded coming out in his draft class than all but Ifedi, who already failed harder than Daniels has.

If your reasoning is that Daniels is going to get too expensive if he performs well, then what's the downside? Isn't good guard play ideal? Good guard play in 2021 + a comp pick is better than a downgrade at guard and a below average 2nd TE also for a year.
 

circusboy666

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With Fields now in the fold, here is how I would approach the rest of the offseason.

1. Extend Arob - New deal 4 years 81m with 16m SB. Base salaries are 8m, 17m, 20m and 20m with first 2 years guaranteed so 41m guaranteed in total. Cap hit for 2021 is 12m saving us 5.8m in cap space. With Fields in the fold give him a reliable No 1 target thru the first 4 years of his contract as he is developing. ARob gets his 20m a year so he can shut up and more importantly 41m in first 2 years of the deal after which he can be could while saving 12m against 2023 cap or 16 million against 2024. Win win for everyone.

2.Cut Graham - I have no idea why he is still around. He is not part of the future with Fields and offers very little outside of the red zone. For those concerned about TE, I have a solution further below. 7m saved

3. Cut/Trade Hicks - He is on the last year of his deal and the money could be put to better use. We can also recoup a late round pick next year which Pace does well with. I am thinking a 5th-6th rounder or so. Hicks is still good when healthy but he hasn't been healthy the last few years and he has also been responsible for a lot of silly penalties. Nichols is also in his last year and I think we need to give him the keys in terms of letting him play Hicks role to see what we have in him. We also have some decent guys to play the other DE spot and Goldman returning at NT. 11.5m saved

4. Cut/Trade Miller - I don't think he is part of the future as too inconsistent and we have several slot options to replace him. I don't see him worth signing to a contract beyond this year so see if you can get a 5th-6th rounder for him. I think the future for the Bears is ARob, Mooney, Newsome, Kmet as the starters with my TE solution below operating in 2 TE sets. 1.5m saved.

These moves get you to about 31 million in cap space. Signing the draft class takes about 5 million so that leaves you 26m in cap space. Now here is where it gets fun.

5. Sign Eric Fisher - 3 years 30 million, 15m SB with base salaries of 3m, 7.5m, 7.5m. A bit of a gamble given the achilles injury but this is a signing that perhaps happens closer to August once we have better medicals. That would give us a line of Fisher, Whitehair, Mustipher Ifedi and Jenkins which would be much improved from last year IMO with guys like Borom, Bars, Simmons, waiting in the wings to provide depth. I have left out Daniels because of the following.

6. Trade Daniels to the Falcons for Hayden Hurst - The Falcons drafted Pitts and then did not pick up the 5th year option for Hurst. So his time with the Falcons is coming to an end. We are unlikely to resign Daniels as if Ifedi is worth 5m, Daniels can probably get 5-10m on the open market in 2022. We also still have Bars, Borom, Simmons, etc. as depth and quite frankly should be drafting OL every year so I think getting a move TE like Hurst to pair with Kmet and replace Graham is worth Daniels. I think long term the best OL is going to be Fisher, Whitehair, Mustipher, Borom and Jenkins.

7. Sign Bashaud Breeland - 3 years 18 million, 9m SB with base salaries of 2m, 3m and 4m - Veteran signing that can provide cover while the young CBs continue to develop.

The above still leaves about 15 million of cap space that can be used during the year or rolled over to the 2022 cap if not used.
If you still had 15 million why wouldn’t you keep Hicks a proven playmaker and heart of the defense.
 

remydat

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Eh. 14th in NFL in yards, but played 71% of the snaps for the team that threw the ball more than any other. Robert Tonyan had more yards and he played 61%. At 28, and in a clear timeshare, he'd get nowhere near those numbers. And he's not nearly the redzone weapon at 6'4" that a guy like Graham is at 6'7". There's a reason they declined his 5th year option, and it's not just because they are in cap hell. He's actually a below average player.

Tonyan isn't available and is had less options ahead of him. MVS would be the 4th best WR on the Falcons behind Julio, Ridley and Gage. This is precisely why ARod is pissed in GB because his weapons suck and thus Tonyan gets more opportunities as he is really the 2nd best option outside of Adams.

Also you said he played 71% of snaps and I am saying he would play about 63% of snaps so in a time share he gets pretty similar production as you talking an 8% reduction in snaps. They declined his 5th year option because they drafted Pitts. We don't have Pitts. Pitts is a pass catcher and makes Hurst redundant since Hurst is also a pass catcher. They signed a blocking TE already.

Hurst is is a better and younger player than Graham at this stage of their careers. And Daniels is average to below average and not a clear upgrade over Whitehair, Mustipher or Ifedi.
 

remydat

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If you still had 15 million why wouldn’t you keep Hicks a proven playmaker and heart of the defense.

Because that 15 million can be rolled over for next year or used if someone unexpected becomes available. If you spend 12 million of cap on Hicks this year then it is gone forever and Hicks doesn't make us a SB contender. If I save 11 million by cutting him that 11 million can be used this year or not year to sign someone that is going to be hear longer term.
 

circusboy666

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Bc Hicks legit changes the game. Hicks makes that defense so much more dangerous and with Goldman coming back Hicks Goldman and Nichols is nasty as hell.
 

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The lack of love for Daniels is disheartening. There is nothing to suggest that he wouldn’t have been great if he hadn’t gotten hurt.

@HawkBear can you believe this shit?
 

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