Alozay : You penciled him in the 2022 rotation like a sure thing though.
Mills : Meh yes but, Thor is talented and could be an ace but he'll come with high risk.
2015 : Dude they had 5 decent and fairly proven rotation pieces and a can't miss prospect in Bryant / Soler / Russell / Schwarber and Baez. Your 2022 projection doesn't have any of that other than Davis who could have an impact like that. Also these guys other than Russell easily had 20 HR or more pop upside in their bat. Horner at best is a Tommy La Stella / Amaya at best right now seems to be a defensive catcher (Willson hit .353 in the minors proving he's a hitter but Amaya has yet to do something of this caliber) and that isn't enough to build off of. And what is the likelihood of Arenado signing with a rebuilding team when he hates losing with the Rockies? I think your projections this time are flat out not being objective enough.
Bryant was not a Cub on opening day. 20/20 doesn't apply to pre-events.
Soler busted as a Cub. Russell busted as a Cub. It happens. You can go around saying ya 2015 was locked in because it was after the fact. Opening day it was hype a new manager and a investment into Lester.
Alozay I am penciling him in until he busts. If he busts then adjust as needed. I listed him as a #4. It is not like I was banking on him. They started Mills so this is not a huge reach. But you have to see what you have and Jed is going to start him as of right now. So yes you have to pencil him in with the current situation. If we were talking Marquez then no. He was not a part of the team rotation and saw 1/3 of a inning. Could he? Unlikely but he could dominate hitters in S/T and force it. For sure it could happen with his talent.
Thor
2017: On April 30, Syndergaard left the game after experiencing tightness in his right biceps. The next day, on May 1, he was placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a torn lat muscle in his right arm.
[55][56] He was transferred to the 60-day disabled list on May 7.
[57]
2018: He was placed on the disabled list at the end of May and was activated on July 12, after missing the whole month of June with a strained
ligament in his right index finger. On July 22, he was again placed on the disabled list after contracting
hand, foot and mouth disease,
[62
2020[edit]
On March 24, 2020, Syndergaard was diagnosed with a torn UCL in his right elbow and underwent
Tommy John surgery on March 26, putting him out for the entire 2020 season.
[
IDK if I would call him fragile. TJ is so common I'm more concerned of pitchers who never got it because it is pending.
If it was the same thing over and over then I would pull up the shades on no. But Lat, Index finger then UCL. It happens but if it was shoulder then I would run away. That is the one that wrecks a career.
But this is the world of what if.
What I believe happens: They buy short term to flip. They will flip Davies, Baez, Bryant and Rizzo. Next year he signs filler 1 year deals to flip like he did with Scott Feldman and continues to acquire prospects. I don't see him going into a season to tank. He will field a team that could win the division and if they are not in it he sells if he is in it he will add cheap players if any. I don't see a huge investment unless it has control attached that he can either resell or take forward with.
2021: I see Phiggy resigned to back up Contreras. They need a starting LF. They need a 5th starter. I doubt that he goes with 3 guys.
If it was me I would sign Profar for LF and Archer for the rotation. Archer would be a 1 year flip. Profar could end up a multi year because he can man 3B after Bryant is traded. So that one could be a problem solver.
2022: That is where they will create a vacuum in cap space. Around 110 mil. Will they invest? I feel this would fall under Tom Ricketts wanting to contend or create profit. That is the driver.
If he wants to contend then Lindor should be the main target. They should have a need for a SP. Thor has the most upside. Grey might be a good target also if they are looking at a mid rotation type.
If they are looking to flip again. SS I would move Nico there. Bote to 2B Profar to 3B. Jon Grey depends if he is in the situation Archer is in now. 1 year prove it deal and flip to a contender. Matz would be on the market. Daniel Norris. So there are a few mid-back end types that wouldn't bust the bank and could be used as chips.