Remydat's Roster Evaluation

[remydat]

So there has obviously been a lot of talk about the Bears roster and whether we did enough for Fields. So I figured I would go through all the changes made and grade them from 1 to 10. Let's start with the defense. Note that while the Bears were a 3-4 in base they largely played nickel 75% of the time. So I discuss the DL in the context of Edge players (ie 3-4 OLB and 4-3 DEs) and IDL (ie 3-4 DEs and 4-3 DTs). Also won't be discussing SAM but rather the nickel back.

RE - Quinn was a 9 last year. He is one year older and don't think he replicates that year but I also think he stays fresher and we have a better backup in one of Gipson/Muhammed/Robinson so I would say this is about a 7.5 this year.

NT - Big change is the loss of Goldman but he was worse than Blackson and Tonga last year. So removing Goldman and replacing him with Blackson/Tonga to go with Tonga improving his 2nd year and I would say this goes from a 5 last year to a 6.5.

3T - This was a combination of Hicks and Nichols last year and now will be primarily Jones and Edwards. I think the run D improves but overall Hicks and Nichols provided more pass rush. So I would say this goes from a 7 last year to about a 5 this year.

LE - This was obviously Mack and Gipson last year but bear in mind, it was only 7 games of Mack. Now it will be one of Gipson/Muhammad with Robinson also in the mix. In any event whatever gains Gipson has in his thread year and improvements in the the rotation doesn't offset what Mack brought to the table in limited snaps. So I would say this has gone from an 8 to say 6.5 this year.

WLB - Think this is where Quan ends up and I think Quan is better suited to playing WLB in a 4-3 vs a ILB in a 3-4 as this D is tailor made for his skill set in terms of strengths and weakness. Playing WLB will allow him to remain unblocked more often. So I this him going from a 7.5 last year to 8.5

MLB - Morrow is a better option as the 2nd off ball LB when compared to Ogletree. He fits this D better and has the range to excel in coverage as well as to come up and hit in the run game. So I think this goes from 5 last year to a 7.

Nickel - Think this has more depth and options as Shelly, Young, Graham, Vildor are much better options than last year particularly Young and Graham in his 2nd year. We also have several S that can also play nickel in Jackson, Brisker, Hicks as well as Gordon who can move inside from CB. So I would say this has gone from say a 4.5 last year to a 7 IMO.

CB1 - Johnson was a bit inconsistent last year so I had him at around a 7. I think this year with help on the other side and the pressure the coaches put on him from a HITS standpoint, he becomes more consistent and grades out around an 8.

CB2 - 2nd CB was blackhole so this is a massive improvement. I think Gordon will be a solid 6.5-7 grade and last year we got like a 2-3 grade out of this position. This is the single greatest jump on the D.

FS - Jackson was about a 5.5 last year but I think with a clean slate and increased focus on HITS he ends up around a 6.5 this year.

SS - Gipson and DHC were adequate at around 5 or so last year but I think Brisker is a solid 7 as a rookie.

So put that all together and the DL is at -3.5, the off ball LBs are at +3, CBs and Nickel are +7.5 and Safeties are +3. So overall I see this as an upgrade of +10. The DL has regressed a bit but the improvements in the secondary will more than make up for it. We were that bad particularly at 2nd CB and the prospects we selected in Gordon and Brisker are that good IMO.

 

[remydat]

OFFENSE
QB - Without a single addition or change in scheme I think Fields naturally gets better. He has the talent, he has the work ethic and I think he ultimately has the intelligence. So I think this easily goes from say a 4 last year to a solid 7.5 this year.

RB - I think this improves as they are incorporated more into the passing game, we focus on the run more and Herbert will improves as a 2nd year player. Ebner also adds value here. So I would say they were a 7.5 last year and go to an 8.

WR1 - I envision Mooney taking another step from a solid No 2 to a higher end No 2 or low end No 1. So I am saying he goes from a 7.5 last year to an 8.5.

WR2 - Typically this would be a huge downgrade from ARob to Pringle but the simple fact is ARob was not good and also injured last year with Pringle outproducing him. So I am going to grade this as a slight downgrade as I from say a 7 to a 6.

WR3-WR6 - Bryd and Godwin were underwhelming last year and I think some combination of VJJ, St Brown, Moore, Sharpe and Petis ends up offering more with VJJ having the highest potential to me. So all told, I would grade this an upgrade from a 4 to 5.5 or so.

TE/FB - I think the TE/FB room has more depth with Kmet, Shaun, Griffin, Blasingame, and Allen but still not sure there is a red zone threat as good as Graham was. Having said that, I think Kmet takes a bit more of a step up so I have this as an upgrade from say a 6 last yer to a 7.

LT - Peters was surprisingly good last year and I don't see Borom, Davenport or Jones matching him. Having said that I think we will be passable here with one of those guys emerging so I would view this as a downgrade from 7.5 to about 6.5.

LG - Whitehair seems old as fuck but he is still only going to be 30 next year. He is no longer worth his contract IMO but the new scheme fits him better and so I think he holds steady overall with a 6.5 grade.

C - Mustipher was terrible last year and based on the metrics Patrick was not much better. Having said that, I think he will stabilize the C position and help with the overall cohesiveness of the OL as he is a better fit for the new scheme than Mustipher was for the old one. So I would consider this an upgrade from a 4.5 to a 6.5.

RG - This is a bit of an unknown right now with Daniels being solid for us last year with a 7.5. I am assuming Thomas emerges as a rookie to take this spot. Expecting him to provide below average to average line play at 5 but this is the one spot we could stand to upgrade before the season.

RT - Think Jenkins will have a solid season here and thus project his as an upgrade from what Ifedi, Borom and Jenkins provided last year in limited action. Thus I have this going from a 6 to a 7.

So all in I think the improvement at QB is +3.5, RB +0.5, WR +2, TE + 1 and OL -0.5. So overall the offense is net +6.5. The reality is the improvement on O comes from us having a lot of young guys that I think will get better as Fields, Jenkins, Borom, Herbert feel like guys that will take a huge leap in year 2. Meanwhile, Mooney and Kmet will take huge steps in their 3rd year and Monty is steady at RB.

 

[remydat]

SPECIAL TEAMS
K - Santos is as steady as they come so I think this is a push as he stays at around a 7.5

P - Nothing splashy here but I think Gill looks to be more consistent so I have Gill as a slight upgrade from 6.5 to 7.

KR - Herbert was quite good last year but I think we have a lot of options with Herbert, Ebner, and VJJ so I think this is a slight upgrade from 6.5 to 7.

PR - This was a bit more erratic last year and I think the options above as well as Newsome if he sticks around will allow for a better PR team so I have this going from 5.5 to 6.5.

Coverage - I think we have re-focused on making sure back ups can play Special Teams so I think our coverage units improve from a 6.5 to a 7.5.

So net that is a gain of +2

COACHING
And finally there is the coaching. LFG!

HC - I think similar to Lovie Smith, Eberflus will bring energy and discipline back to the team. I also think he also appears more polished as a head coach and the fact he is not calling the D will allow him to remain in that Executive HC role which I think is a better fit. Thus I view this as a massive upgrade from about +3.5 to say +7.

OC - Getsy again seems a bit more polished and measured as a coach. I also like his offensive scheme a lot more as it is much more QB friendly and has mechanism built in to make the job easier for a young QB. The Andy Reid system is certainly dynamic but also more complicated imo. I also think Getsy will design an O that tries to utilize the strengths of the Fields which we can already see with the WR, RB and OL acquisitions. We have opted for speed because Fields likes throwing deep but also because when he throws short, he needs to see the reward in YAC to encourage him to buy in. So we have WRs and RBs that can stretch the field but also get YAC on shorter play. On the OL, we have gone with an athletic line which will help as Getsy moves the pocket for Fields as well as incorporates RPOs that need a more agile line. So I would say this goes from a +3 to a +7

DC - I think the new scheme here is a better fit for some key players like the DEs, Quan and the secondary. I will say I was high on Desai from an Xs and Os perspective but this D will allow guys to stoping thinking and start reacting and hitting. All in all though I expect the improvement in the players to larger come from from experience and talent so I would call this a push at 6.5.

So all in that is a +7.5 upgrade due to coaching. Overall then the total upgrade points so to speak are as follows.

Defense +10
Offense +6.5
Special Teams +3
Coaching +7.5
Total = +27

 

[Omeletpants]

Least talent in NFL

 

[VickAshley✅️verified]

Least talent in NFL

Houston literally says hi, IGNORAMUS

 

[Les Grossman]

I love how players only get better in the NFL and never get worse.

 

[remydat]

I love how players only get better in the NFL and never get worse.

I love how people can't read. Literally the first guy I mention Quinn I have going from a 9 rating this past year to a 7.5 rating. That is getting worse. The reason I have the other guys getting better is because the team is literally filled with a bunch of younger players who still aren't in their prime years. I have no idea why anyone would assume guys like Gipson, Muhammed, Quan, Johnson, Gordon, Brisker, Morrow, and Graham can't get better.

So let's recap. I have older players declining and younger players getting better. Derp!

 

[Omeletpants]

Houston literally says hi, IGNORAMUS

Only an idiot would argue if the Bears have the 31st or 32nd talent in the league

 

[VickAshley✅️verified]

Only an idiot would argue if the Bears have the 31st or 32nd talent in the league

Then that literally makes you yourselve the idiot IGNORAMUS

 

[HearshotKDS]

I think its likely Brisker will be a good safety, but I also think the difference between an average safety and a good (not great) safety in the NFL has one of the smaller impacts relative to other positions on the D.

One area I do think will makea huge difference - if the CB2 lives up to his billing - is the improvement at DB2 and 3. last year you saw the Bears opponents eventually figured out that the Bears didn't have 3 NFL caliber CBs - Offenses started basically playing "find the Vildor" and either burned him or called route combos that put S over his side to make lose-lose choices. Not going to dig it up but i believe if you look at a week by week DVOA graph of the Bears defense there is a massive cliff at like the 1/3 mark of the season which is basically the "teams found Vildor" nosedive.

 

[Bust]

Least talent in NFL

CJ Stroud can be had with the #1 or #2 pick.

He may have 100 touchdowns in 2 seasons at ohio state.

 

[remydat]

I think its likely Brisker will be a good safety, but I also think the difference between an average safety and a good (not great) safety in the NFL has one of the smaller impacts relative to other positions on the D.

One area I do think will makea huge difference - if the CB2 lives up to his billing - is the improvement at DB2 and 3. last year you saw the Bears opponents eventually figured out that the Bears didn't have 3 NFL caliber CBs - Offenses started basically playing "find the Vildor" and either burned him or called route combos that put S over his side to make lose-lose choices. Not going to dig it up but i believe if you look at a week by week DVOA graph of the Bears defense there is a massive cliff at like the 1/3 mark of the season which is basically the "teams found Vildor" nosedive.

Yeah but I think given the big plays we gave up last year in the secondary many of which were on the Safeties that Brisker stands to have a larger than normal impact if he is more disciplined and is truly a 2nd guy that can cover deep consistently. Agreed on CB2 and NB.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

SPECIAL TEAMS
K - Santos is as steady as they come so I think this is a push as he stays at around a 7.5

P - Nothing splashy here but I think Gill looks to be more consistent so I have Gill as a slight upgrade from 6.5 to 7.

KR - Herbert was quite good last year but I think we have a lot of options with Herbert, Ebner, and VJJ so I think this is a slight upgrade from 6.5 to 7.

PR - This was a bit more erratic last year and I think the options above as well as Newsome if he sticks around will allow for a better PR team so I have this going from 5.5 to 6.5.

Coverage - I think we have re-focused on making sure back ups can play Special Teams so I think our coverage units improve from a 6.5 to a 7.5.

So net that is a gain of +2

COACHING
And finally there is the coaching. LFG!

HC - I think similar to Lovie Smith, Eberflus will bring energy and discipline back to the team. I also think he also appears more polished as a head coach and the fact he is not calling the D will allow him to remain in that Executive HC role which I think is a better fit. Thus I view this as a massive upgrade from about +3.5 to say +7.

OC - Getsy again seems a bit more polished and measured as a coach. I also like his offensive scheme a lot more as it is much more QB friendly and has mechanism built in to make the job easier for a young QB. The Andy Reid system is certainly dynamic but also more complicated imo. I also think Getsy will design an O that tries to utilize the strengths of the Fields which we can already see with the WR, RB and OL acquisitions. We have opted for speed because Fields likes throwing deep but also because when he throws short, he needs to see the reward in YAC to encourage him to buy in. So we have WRs and RBs that can stretch the field but also get YAC on shorter play. On the OL, we have gone with an athletic line which will help as Getsy moves the pocket for Fields as well as incorporates RPOs that need a more agile line. So I would say this goes from a +3 to a +7

DC - I think the new scheme here is a better fit for some key players like the DEs, Quan and the secondary. I will say I was high on Desai from an Xs and Os perspective but this D will allow guys to stoping thinking and start reacting and hitting. All in all though I expect the improvement in the players to larger come from from experience and talent so I would call this a push at 6.5.

So all in that is a +7.5 upgrade due to coaching. Overall then the total upgrade points so to speak are as follows.

Defense +10
Offense +6.5
Special Teams +3
Coaching +7.5
Total = +27

I like your overall premise and agree in general on the net improvement. Not sure why so many people are down on the offseason.

That said, I think you were a bit generous on the grades from last year. If 5 is truly average, that is.

Biggest takeaways though. Fields should improve. Coaching should improve. And the secondary should improve (although it might take a bit of time).

 

[Hawkeye OG]

TLDR version?

 

[didshereallysaythat]

TLDR version?

Multiple superbowls over the next decade.

 

[Milky]

Not mentioned in the OP but I have a feeling Cruikshank will get a decent amount of snaps playing a sort of SS/SLB/NB role. If used smartly having him on the field with other skill diverse DB’s (Brisker-SS/FS/NB and Jackson FS/NB) could cause a good amount of confusion. Hopefully for the other team.

A little hesitation by the opposing QB is often the difference in getting a sack and not getting a sack. If the addition of all these DB’s can create that hesitation I for one believe the pass rush will be just fine. Even if Quinn takes a step back (he almost certainly will) I think they’ll be ok. Muhammad is a good player and Gipson really came on late last year, I’m hopeful he’ll take the next step. Plus they have another middling vet in Attouchu and a raw athlete in Robinson to throw reps at and keep the real pass rushers fresh.

 

[SugarWalls]

Me fine with some small upgrades to scores at OL but I’m curious about this 1 to 10 scale.

I thought the OL was well below average and iirc they allowed the leagues most sacks. If you want to put some of that on fields then fine, but I don’t see how they graded out before the upgrades. I feel like they should all be below 5 besides maybe peters and Daniels.

Any improvements by the line will mostly need to be through scheme, which I realize you accounted for, but this is easily a bottom 5-10 unit unless some young guys really outplay expectations.

 

[remydat]

I like your overall premise and agree in general on the net improvement. Not sure why so many people are down on the offseason.

That said, I think you were a bit generous on the grades from last year. If 5 is truly average, that is.

Biggest takeaways though. Fields should improve. Coaching should improve. And the secondary should improve (although it might take a bit of time).

Me fine with some small upgrades to scores at OL but I’m curious about this 1 to 10 scale.

I thought the OL was well below average and iirc they allowed the leagues most sacks. If you want to put some of that on fields then fine, but I don’t see how they graded out before the upgrades. I feel like they should all be below 5 besides maybe peters and Daniels.

Any improvements by the line will mostly need to be through scheme, which I realize you accounted for, but this is easily a bottom 5-10 unit unless some young guys really outplay expectations.

Bears pass block win rate was 6th in NFL. Think they will naturally look better as we will run more plays were the ball should be out in under 2.5 seconds. Think last year you did have Fields holding the ball too longer but also the scheme really did not prioritize balance the deeper players with really quick throws.

I also sort of equated to PFFs grades. So for example, Whitehair's overall grade was 66 which on a 10 point scale I just equated to 6.5. Peters was 77 which I equated to 7.5, Mustipher was 51.8 but I thought he really sucked so knocked him down to 4.5. Daniels was 71 and I thought he was a bit better than that so gave him 7.5 and Ifedi abd Borom were 61 or so at RT which I gave them 6.0.

On the PFF grading scale. Most guys are at 60 or above and anything below 6 is pretty bad.

 

[Omeletpants]

Then that literally makes you yourselve the idiot IGNORAMUS

Keep arguing difference between 31 and 32 fucko

 

[msadows]

Bears pass block win rate was 6th in NFL. I also sort of equated to PFFs grades. So for example, Whitehairs overall grade was 66 which on a 10 point scale I just equated to 6.5. Peters was 77 which I equated to 7.5, Mustipher was 51.8 but I thought he really sucked so knocked him down to 4.5. Daniels was 71 and I thought he was a bit better than that so gave him 7.5 and Ifedi abd Borom were 61 or so at RT which I gave them 6.0.

Much more young unproven talent on this team that IMO they can find a solid starting 5.

Much prefer it to Ryan Pace's method of signing a bunch of bums who are solid at best. Just hope that fields doesn't die in the process, but I'm sure he will be fine.