I believe you are 100% correct. He was gone then some dipshit leaked it and the Bears backed off because they were exposed as being the dipshits we all know they are. Had it not been leaked, he was gone. A 16-14 comeback win over a winless team is the same as a loss cosmetically.
At this point, none of this matters. There's a lot of smoke now not just around Nagy, but Pace as well. And with the rumor churn dying down, I'd wager that both camps have been told to knock it the fuck off, and that
"whatever our decision will be at the end of the year, our mind is already made up, so if any more leaks from either camp happen, it will only reflect poorly".
Which is why the spin for the most part has stopped. The last thing George McCaskey wanted to do was to have to come down and address the coaches and the team.
Pace and Nagy both likely are gone after their childish leak war in the media...