The best QBs lead their teams to the playoffs by year three as the primary starter

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Research shows that QBs who have been named to the All-Pro team over the last 30 years all but one of them have led their team to the playoffs by their third year as the primary starter. If Justin Fields is ever going to be in the conversation as a great QB who can consistently lead the Bears to the playoffs, and to a Super Bowl appearance he'll have to get the Bears to the playoffs this year.

 

Bearcub13

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Research shows that QBs who have been named to the All-Pro team over the last 30 years all but one of them have led their team to the playoffs by their third year as the primary starter. If Justin Fields is ever going to be in the conversation as a great QB who can consistently lead the Bears to the playoffs, and to a Super Bowl appearance he'll have to get the Bears to the playoffs this year.

The best posters have a clue....just sayin'
 

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Where’s the source of the research? Also there are “bad QBs” who made the playoffs their third year
 

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Just looked at the stats for 2021 and Fields attempted 270 passes.

Dalton/Foles attempted 271.

But OP wants to count that the same as Drew Brees first “primary” season when he’s already spent a year on the bench. (Still threw 27 passes rookie season). Then gets to throw 526 passes in year 2.

So Fields first season (rookie year where he gets half the passes) counts the same as Brees second season?

Anyone should be able to see these are very different situations.
 

Canth

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Where’s the source of the research? Also there are “bad QBs” who made the playoffs their third year

He is defining great as making All-Pro. At QB, there is only a single All-Pro QB in a given year. So, the research was just to list all the NFL All-Pro QB's by year and state whether or not they made playoffs by what he determined to be their 3rd year as the primary starter. As noted in a post above, he's already moved that goalpost for Fields to make the forecast look worse for Fields relative to what he did for other guys in the list (ie, this year or bust when he has used criteria for others that would give Fields in to 2024)

It would be a bit easier to read if he just listed the All-Pro QB's rather than by year considering the number of repeats.

The actual list is 14 QB's going back '92 and the exception to the playoffs by year 3 to make the list was Gannon
  • Randall Cunningham
  • Steve Young (5 times)
  • Brett Favre (2 times)
  • Kurt Warner
  • Peyton Manning (5 times)
  • Rich Gannon
  • Steve McNair
  • Tom Brady (4 times)
  • Drew Brees
  • Aaron Rodgers (5 times so far)
  • Cam Newton
  • Matt Ryan
  • Patrick Mahomes (2 times so far)
  • Lamar Jackson
I don't necessarily disagree with the general premise. IMO, it would be more fair to say that Fields needs to take the team to the playoffs at least once while on his rookie contract so that you know he is the guy that can lead the team to the playoffs before giving him a huge 2nd contract. Especially with the money now involved with the QB position, that seems reasonable to me.

For those that actually watch the games and understand context, Fields's rookie year with Nagy was a complete shitshow and a case study in how to not handle developing a qb, imo. That should be considered a throwaway year. So, he is year 2 of this particular 3 year clock. I think he makes a big jump and I said elsewhere, I expect the team to be in the playoff hunt. Hard to say right now if they can actually make it this year, but that's why they play the games.
 

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He is defining great as making All-Pro. At QB, there is only a single All-Pro QB in a given year. So, the research was just to list all the NFL All-Pro QB's by year and state whether or not they made playoffs by what he determined to be their 3rd year as the primary starter. As noted in a post above, he's already moved that goalpost for Fields to make the forecast look worse for Fields relative to what he did for other guys in the list (ie, this year or bust when he has used criteria for others that would give Fields in to 2024)

It would be a bit easier to read if he just listed the All-Pro QB's rather than by year considering the number of repeats.

The actual list is 14 QB's going back '92 and the exception to the playoffs by year 3 to make the list was Gannon
  • Randall Cunningham
  • Steve Young (5 times)
  • Brett Favre (2 times)
  • Kurt Warner
  • Peyton Manning (5 times)
  • Rich Gannon
  • Steve McNair
  • Tom Brady (4 times)
  • Drew Brees
  • Aaron Rodgers (5 times so far)
  • Cam Newton
  • Matt Ryan
  • Patrick Mahomes (2 times so far)
  • Lamar Jackson
I don't necessarily disagree with the general premise. IMO, it would be more fair to say that Fields needs to take the team to the playoffs at least once while on his rookie contract so that you know he is the guy that can lead the team to the playoffs before giving him a huge 2nd contract. Especially with the money now involved with the QB position, that seems reasonable to me.

For those that actually watch the games and understand context, Fields's rookie year with Nagy was a complete shitshow and a case study in how to not handle developing a qb, imo. That should be considered a throwaway year. So, he is year 2 of this particular 3 year clock. I think he makes a big jump and I said elsewhere, I expect the team to be in the playoff hunt. Hard to say right now if they can actually make it this year, but that's why they play the games.

Now this is fair and much more logical than some random 3 year cutoff.
 

botfly10

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Research shows that QBs who have been named to the All-Pro team over the last 30 years all but one of them have led their team to the playoffs by their third year as the primary starter. If Justin Fields is ever going to be in the conversation as a great QB who can consistently lead the Bears to the playoffs, and to a Super Bowl appearance he'll have to get the Bears to the playoffs this year.


fuckidiot doesn't understand that statistics are not individuals

I mean holy fuck, his "research" includes an individual that is an exception and invalidates his entire argument before he even gets to fields

fkin Special person
 
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fuckidiot doesn't understand that statistics are not individuals

I mean holy fuck, his "research" includes an individual that is an exception and invalidates his entire argument before he even gets to fields

fkin Special person
What part of great QBs lead their teams to the playoffs in year three do you not understand? Rich Gannon is it. If you want to add in Steve Young that's two for your side.

Justin Fields will get in done in year three or he'll be on the scrap heap.
 

botfly10

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What part of great QBs lead their teams to the playoffs in year three do you not understand? Rich Gannon is it. If you want to add in Steve Young that's two for your side.

Justin Fields will get in done in year three or he'll be on the scrap heap.

you did it again

you invalidated your own argument

been done before, can be done again
 

mecha

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lest we forget, in terms of the Bears entire roster on both sides of the ball, the cupboard was bare. lol

Peyton Manning couldn't take these bums to the playoffs. I appreciate the fact that Poles is at least making a genuine effort to rebuild using long game strategy. we'll see how it works out.
 

PrideisBears

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Fat Daniel blocked me on twitter and CCS because he couldnt handle debating me. Fat tard.
Word on the street is he can go toe to toe with anyone about the bears……………unless they use simple stats to back up their claim
 

remydat

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The Bears should compete for a playoff spot this year. Whether they make it or not will depend on Fields, the rest of the team and health. Making definitive claims at this point is just stupid. We will have to see how this season unfolds and whether any shortcomings by the Bears are due to Fields or something else.
 

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The Bears should compete for a playoff spot this year. Whether they make it or not will depend on Fields, the rest of the team and health. Making definitive claims at this point is just stupid. We will have to see how this season unfolds and whether any shortcomings by the Bears are due to Fields or something else.
The only definitive stat that I am resting my hat on is the PPG this offense scores when Fields starts. With all the lucky bounces it takes for talented teams to make the wildcard, I think PPG is the stat that tells us if Fields is helping the team or holding them back.

Do what you have to to make the points happen. Passes work. Runs work. Passes that turn into runs are awesome sometimes. Using the threat of QB1 taking off to open up space behind a defender coming up to stop the scramble is even more awesome. "Great QBs find a way" and other similar arguments are a nifty way to ignore what happens on any given play or the context of the game leading into that moment, while at the same time demanding specific outcomes. The only objective standard of Fields' total performance that takes his progress into account comes down to points the offense puts on the scoreboard.
 

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