Things I Believe About This Draft...

[Bearly]

I used to find the draft utterly fascinating until 'mock draft insanity' where there's a mock draft every day by national/local, unconnected to front office jagoffs who use logic for some but sheer laziness because 32 individual write ups and explanations are tedious when you have a deadline and an editor up your ass. Now I find them to be tedious and useless and wish that the NFL took a page out of the NBA/NHL playbook of having the draft a month right after the championship series/Superbowl because 3ish months after the Superbowl when real college to NFL buzz starts as early as week 2 of college season--its just exhausting.

Its exhausting because its so easy to get sucked in, but when it comes to making sense of things, connecting dots--for some its as simple as "I was able to trade down and get umpteen more picks/trade up without giving up the farm in a mock draft simulator so why can't the bears do it?" when it really isn't that simple. It especially doesn't help that most every NFL team (especially the bears and Ryan Pace) are silent. When an idea is met with silence, no matter how wrong it can be--the idea has plenty of room to grow because pundits do their job of generating the buzz.

People assume Wilson over Fields, Jones, and Lance for the mysterious element. If Wilson comes out last year he's a 6/7th rounder or undrafted. Nobody wants a guy struggling to throw for 2300 yards and 11 TDs with 9 INTs against better collegiate competition. But when he looked good--which he did often in 2020 (albeit against incredibly inferior competition) followed by a pro day where he could show off, he looked like a guy who you could stir the pot with, which is why pundits who need to pump out constant mock drafts love the guy. It's why the Chris Simms' of the world put him as the #1 overall guy ahead of Lawrence. Stir the pot and generate interest/conversation.

I also think Wilson's hype comes from the lack of controversy because as soon as Trevor Lawrence decided to return to Clemson for the 2020 season, he was the consensus #1 pick for this draft. And that's not very sexy. You can't make that pop to people to get them to keep watching or clicking or engaged when they know for the next segment/article you're talking about the same consensus top guy over and over. When everybody knows the answer to the big question--its a letdown and you lose attention. I don't root against him, wouldn't be shocked if the Jets make him #2 but will also not be shocked to see the kid have a big drop-off and be the 4-5th guy taken. People don't want to see that/believe that because some jackass who wasn't good in the league/was the son of a HOF says he's the best. That's where the mind comes in because you can easily convince yourself when you see Wilson at his pro day jogging and slinging gorgeous looking bombs without pads or pressure of a big, fast 250-300 pound LB/DL trying to earhole him. How many board scouts' heads will explode if Wilson falls to 10?

I find how teams invest time/money in a kid to be fascinating as well. I think its window dressing when you see the underwear Olympics--because there's plenty of tape to see how fast a guy really is/how good his technique/hands/feet are as opposed to seeing a guy work out with cameras in a big, empty stadium. That an interview between GM/Coach/Execs and an early 20-something could be the reason a kid who is a bust for team A is a HOF for team B. It's a double-edged sword though, especially when you hear a team lacking due diligence on a guy--whether they knew then ignored something obvious or the kid had skeletons in his closet that were perfectly hidden until they weren't.

/rant

I pay them no mind unless the Bear are drafting in the top 12 or so. Way too difficult to postulate what might be left after that and in most drafts before that.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

I posted a link to an article that said the mock draft industry is just a way to generate clicks.

Ed Bouchette: Mock drafts have gotten out of control

We now get mock drafts that begin as soon as the season ends and are updated almost weekly.

www.post-gazette.com

This one is a fantastic article. Same one?

That's an interesting idea to move the draft up, and I would agree with it. The problem is that the NFL does a fantastic job of making sure their season is the full 12 months, and ESPN and the like are willing to oblige. Moving it up has its benefits: such as giving QBs more time to prepare. (Not for nothing, but I think QBs should not count against the salary cap, but that is a whole other conversation)

I think the NFL could benefit from moving up the draft so that it's not fighting with the beginning of real baseball season (a welcome for fans come springtime) and the Masters with NBA/NHL wrapping up regular seasons.

The tapes of the kids are already there. Give GMs a month to talk to kids privately/meet them in a big setting for X amount of time like the combine then get it over with before spring camps.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Ed Bouchette: Mock drafts have gotten out of control

We now get mock drafts that begin as soon as the season ends and are updated almost weekly.

www.post-gazette.com

This one is a fantastic article. Same one?

Not the one I'm thinking of, but it may have been linked within the article. Mine was from Drew Magary, but here is another one that completely (and rightfully) shits on the idea:

What's The Point Of Mock Drafts?

If it seems like every NFL reporter or analyst does a mock draft or four, that’s because just about NFL reporter or analyst does a mock draft or four. If you’re wondering why so much pre-draft coverage is saturated with glorified guesswork, consider this: People really, really want to read mock...

deadspin.com

 

[playthrough2001]

I used to find the draft utterly fascinating until 'mock draft insanity' where there's a mock draft every day by national/local, unconnected to front office jagoffs who use logic for some but sheer laziness because 32 individual write ups and explanations are tedious when you have a deadline and an editor up your ass. Now I find them to be tedious and useless and wish that the NFL took a page out of the NBA/NHL playbook of having the draft a month right after the championship series/Superbowl because 3ish months after the Superbowl when real college to NFL buzz starts as early as week 2 of college season--its just exhausting.

Its exhausting because its so easy to get sucked in, but when it comes to making sense of things, connecting dots--for some its as simple as "I was able to trade down and get umpteen more picks/trade up without giving up the farm in a mock draft simulator so why can't the bears do it?" when it really isn't that simple. It especially doesn't help that most every NFL team (especially the bears and Ryan Pace) are silent. When an idea is met with silence, no matter how wrong it can be--the idea has plenty of room to grow because pundits do their job of generating the buzz.

People assume Wilson over Fields, Jones, and Lance for the mysterious element. If Wilson comes out last year he's a 6/7th rounder or undrafted. Nobody wants a guy struggling to throw for 2300 yards and 11 TDs with 9 INTs against better collegiate competition. But when he looked good--which he did often in 2020 (albeit against incredibly inferior competition) followed by a pro day where he could show off, he looked like a guy who you could stir the pot with, which is why pundits who need to pump out constant mock drafts love the guy. It's why the Chris Simms' of the world put him as the #1 overall guy ahead of Lawrence. Stir the pot and generate interest/conversation.

I also think Wilson's hype comes from the lack of controversy because as soon as Trevor Lawrence decided to return to Clemson for the 2020 season, he was the consensus #1 pick for this draft. And that's not very sexy. You can't make that pop to people to get them to keep watching or clicking or engaged when they know for the next segment/article you're talking about the same consensus top guy over and over. When everybody knows the answer to the big question--its a letdown and you lose attention. I don't root against him, wouldn't be shocked if the Jets make him #2 but will also not be shocked to see the kid have a big drop-off and be the 4-5th guy taken. People don't want to see that/believe that because some jackass who wasn't good in the league/was the son of a HOF says he's the best. That's where the mind comes in because you can easily convince yourself when you see Wilson at his pro day jogging and slinging gorgeous looking bombs without pads or pressure of a big, fast 250-300 pound LB/DL trying to earhole him. How many board scouts' heads will explode if Wilson falls to 10?

I find how teams invest time/money in a kid to be fascinating as well. I think its window dressing when you see the underwear Olympics--because there's plenty of tape to see how fast a guy really is/how good his technique/hands/feet are as opposed to seeing a guy work out with cameras in a big, empty stadium. That an interview between GM/Coach/Execs and an early 20-something could be the reason a kid who is a bust for team A is a HOF for team B. It's a double-edged sword though, especially when you hear a team lacking due diligence on a guy--whether they knew then ignored something obvious or the kid had skeletons in his closet that were perfectly hidden until they weren't.

/rant

That’s a rant but a number of your points are spot on. There’s way too much time from the end of the season to the draft. It should be two weeks after the start of the free agency window. Free agency should begin sooner too.

 

[baredown]

The NFL is the 800lb gorilla of sports. It doesn't react to other sports and their seasons. It does whatever it wants, and they all do their best to stay out of its way. The draft is the NFL's flagship event of its off-season. From a marketing perspective, sticking the draft right at the middle of their off-season is optimal for keeping the NFL a year-round enterprise. Moving the draft up a month or so would just leave them with a bigger post-draft hole to fill in order to keep fan interest high. Don't see the NFL changing what's currently working great for them...

 

[baredown]

There's too narrow a focus here on perceived need (QB, OT, WR) with regard to the high picks. My interpretation of Pace's track record with his high picks (rds 1-3...) is that he looks to build/sustain the talent base, not fill needs with those picks.
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Your not wrong but we've lacked those 1st round picks and positions like QB and LT tend to only get value in round one so emphasizing that is not wrong think.

Everyone would love to see a quality QB or sure-thing LT available at 20. The probability of that happening is zero for QBs and damn near zero for LTs. Yes, you can take a developmental QB or decent LT at 20 and then hope for the best, but that's being myopic in terms of the big picture. At 20, you want to be drafting someone who projects to be a cornerstone player for the next 5-6 years. The way this draft looks likely to fall out, the value at 20 may well be on the defensive side. I'm good with that. Leave the developmental QB or mid-level LT pick for later. You shouldn't pass on top-level talent because of needs elsewhere. That's GM-101...

 

[JoJoBoxer]

This is surprising, because typically, the next class is always the better class. At least in the minds of most people. I'll say this, and I've said this before, and I'll always say it: nobody knows anything about quarterbacks.

And like most years, one of the top QBs in the following year was this years' underwhelming QB.

 

[aeronaut]

I think Mills has a chance to out-perform a few of the top 5 with more experience. He has some great tools to work with.

It is a statistical certainty that one of the QBs drafted after the top 5 will outperform at least 2 of the ones drafted in the top 5. Problem is that no one knows who that one overachiever is (or who the dogs of the top 5 are). Will be interesting to look back at this in 4 years and see how it shakes out. As long as the Bears don't sell the farm to trade up for one of the dogs, ....

At least when we picked Tru in 2017, we didn't sell the farm, we just tossed in a 3rd because Pace got snookered. We didn't give up next year's anything for that pick. If we trade up this year, giving up way more than we would normally, and it doesn't work out, we'll suck until 2026 or so.

 

[Bearcub13]

I'm going to jump in here and say Teven Jenkins might be getting a little too much early love. Let me explain. His arms are truly an issue for tackle, his body is still immature for the NFL, and he is probably a natural guard. I know our line was such an anchor at the end of last season it is easy to be a little desperate, but I don't see this kid as any kind of a quick fix. He should however end up being a solid pro. He may not quite fit where we are at right now. I know our line coaches know, I guess we have to trust that they beat their knowledge through Pace's hair product into his thick husked coconut in time for the draft.

 

[playthrough2001]

@dennehy

That's how I'd rank the tackles too, except I'd have Samuel Cosmi in there before Radunz and Eichenberg. But all are good players and Day 1 starters. I do worry about Jenkins at LT because he's played RT primarily, but he's a monster. I don't really see the Bears taking a tackle at 20 though.

I also love Thomas Graham as mentioned in the OP.

I'd love to see the Bears double up at WR. Get a slot guy early and then a developmental outside guy late. Replace Miller with a starting caliber player and replace Wims at the end of the depth chart, maybe with a guy that can play some special teams as well as develop on the outside.

I could also see them double up at CB with a Day 1 starter on the outside early and maybe someone to compete at nickel late in the draft. Those guys named in the OP are all solid (Adebo an outside CB, but the others are nickels). The Bears have a LOT of bodies at CB, but I don't think there would be too many heartbroken over cutting Burns, Roberson, Joseph and maybe even Shelley and Trufant.

Zaven Collins is interesting. I would be very disappointed if the Bears picked a LB in the 1st, unless they traded Roquan for Russell Wilson or something. Even then, it be pushing it.

The Bears came away with Graham in the 6th which I think is an absolute steal and only possible because of the opt out.

Teven Jenkins is not a Packer and the fact that he is a Bear with a second round pick is home run.

Also, I want to change my QB call to Fields over Wilson and I’ll claim temporary insanity for my initial take. However, I do think Wilson will be good and the Jets are doing a nice job building around him already.

 

[playthrough2001]

@playthrough2001

I am on hiatus from the Bears until they get a real QB. But you asked so nicely.

There is no mountain tall enough, no river wide enough, no valley low enough that should keep the Bears addressing the OT position.

There is a distinct possibility that Leno will be gone by season's start if they find a better left tackle.

One guy they could target in a later round is Walker Little.

He was a top rated guy until an injury occurred. He is a possible value pick in an early mid level round; he may even go late second.

If they say fuck it and draft a guy in the first at position. Teven Jenkins.....

If they don't fix the oline now, the Bears are done this season before it started. Trubisky will not be there to hide the oline problems.

I'm not even thinking about another position unless the Bears can trade up and get a QB.

I am disinterested to a fault right now....

Your hiatus is officially over. Please get back to work.

 

[modo]

Your hiatus is officially over. Please get back to work.

trade up get a QB and get Jenkins....big wins

 

[Anytime23]

The Bears came away with Graham in the 6th which I think is an absolute steal and only possible because of the opt out.

Teven Jenkins is not a Packer and the fact that he is a Bear with a second round pick is home run.

Also, I want to change my QB call to Fields over Wilson and I’ll claim temporary insanity for my initial take. However, I do think Wilson will be good and the Jets are doing a nice job building around him already.

It's not insanity. Its homerism. You're changing your calls based on after the fact circumstances of your favorite team landing Fields. The pro-Ryan Pace arguments you've been making now make more sense. Its simply homerism, not stupidity, which is way better. Glad we could settle this.

 

[playthrough2001]

It's not insanity. Its homerism. You're changing your calls based on after the fact circumstances of your favorite team landing Fields. The pro-Ryan Pace arguments you've been making now make more sense. Its simply homerism, not stupidity, which is way better. Glad we could settle this.

It’s actually just having some fun.