To QB or not to QB

JBSurfer

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As the draft is the next event for us, I looked at the Super Bowl winning QBs. Obviously Brady skews it a little, but over the last 20 years only 1 QB has been drafted in the 1-9 positions in a draft and won a super bowl, not named Manning. That belongs to the amazing Trent Dilfer 20 years ago. Josh Allen has that chance still this year.

Had a few in the 10-12 range, and then all over the place after that. But kind of signals to me to stay put and draft. QB is the most important, but looks like it's not the same as the 80s and 90s were.
 

Penny Traitor

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I would step back from just Super Bowl wins and look at playoff appearances. Thatat probably tells a better story because winning a Super Bowl is a team effort and Tom Brady won almost 30% of them.

I mean...Nick Foles is a Super Bowl MVP. He still ain't winning any fans in Chicago because of it.
 

KoreanBear

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As all things in the universe, what is low now will rise and what is high now will fall eventually.

Don't lose hope my bears fans. Time will come. Just eat healthy and exercise so you don't die before it happens.

I say within 20 yrs da bears will see a true franchise qb. Mark it, u heard it here first!!
 

gallagher

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It seems like OP is searching for some sort of causal link between draft position and Superbowl wins.

That ain't how logic works, bud. Hell, you state a 20 year period, call out Brady for skewing the results, and then elect to eliminate both mannings. So you're looking at, what, 10 Superbowls in a 20 year period?

I don't think you are going to get any useful information from that kind of analysis, my guy. Or, at the very least, there isn't a pattern to follow based on this information.
 

ChiKhan

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As all things in the universe, what is low now will rise and what is high now will fall eventually.

Don't lose hope my bears fans. Time will come. Just eat healthy and exercise so you don't die before it happens.

I say within 20 yrs da bears will see a true franchise qb. Mark it, u heard it here first!!
If Cleveland winning a playoff game is a sign of how the whole world has flipped upside down. Get ready because when the time comes that the bears have an elite QB the day of judgment is coming.
 

KoreanBear

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If Cleveland winning a playoff game is a sign of how the whole world has flipped upside down. Get ready because when the time comes that the bears have an elite QB the day of judgment is coming.
BOOM!
 

ThatGuyRyan

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I'd love for Chicago to stay put there will be a good tackle there or WR, hopefully Slater or Cosmi. Roll with Limp Dick Nick next year and for all I care pickup CJ Beathard or some other journeyman and tankt/not tank 2021. Get Pace and Nagy the fuck out of here, start building inside out starting 2022.
 

ViggyStargdust

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As the draft is the next event for us, I looked at the Super Bowl winning QBs. Obviously Brady skews it a little, but over the last 20 years only 1 QB has been drafted in the 1-9 positions in a draft and won a super bowl, not named Manning. That belongs to the amazing Trent Dilfer 20 years ago. Josh Allen has that chance still this year.

Had a few in the 10-12 range, and then all over the place after that. But kind of signals to me to stay put and draft. QB is the most important, but looks like it's not the same as the 80s and 90s were.

What is the logic of limiting it to 1-9? Seems pretty arbitrary and eliminates literally the last QB who won a Super Bowl in Mahomes, who was drafted 10, not to mention Roethlisberger who has 2 rings and was drafted at 11?
 

WindyCity

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I am not sure "not QBing" is an actual option this year.
 

ViggyStargdust

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In the last ten or fifteen years it is almost the case that you don’t even play in a Super Bowl unless you’re a first or second round pick. The only exceptions to this obviously being Brady, Russell Wilson, Kurt Warner in 2008, Matt Hasselback in 2005, and Nick Foles (which excludes the fact that Wentz started 13 games that season and was 11-2). Warner and Brady of those guys being random HOF at the bottom of the draft.
 

JBSurfer

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What is the logic of limiting it to 1-9? Seems pretty arbitrary and eliminates literally the last QB who won a Super Bowl in Mahomes, who was drafted 10, not to mention Roethlisberger who has 2 rings and was drafted at 11?

Really, just trying to point out that trading up to a certain number doesn't translate to super bowls. Everyone wants to trade inside the top 10. Add in all of them. Seems to be no direct correlation between QB draft pick and winning super bowls. Add in the Manning's. One of those was after changing teams. It's exciting to get a QB, but kind of thinking it's not as important as I thought to find in the top of the draft.
 

Toast88

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Except that there's actually a huge causal relationship between having a highly drafted QB and winning the Super Bowl.

Eight of the last 20 Super Bowl winners have been drafted #11 or better. That's BY FAR the group statistically most likely to have Super Bowl winners.

Can people outside of there win a Super Bowl? Absolutely. But there's an incredibly strong statistical bent toward those who have been drafted high.

(For bookkeeping purposes, the other 12 are Brady times 6, Russell Wilson (3rd), Nick Foles (3rd), Brad Johnson (9th!), Aaron Rodgers (late 1st), Joe Flacco (mid 1st), and Drew Brees (2nd))
 
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Spartan

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As the draft is the next event for us, I looked at the Super Bowl winning QBs. Obviously Brady skews it a little, but over the last 20 years only 1 QB has been drafted in the 1-9 positions in a draft and won a super bowl, not named Manning. That belongs to the amazing Trent Dilfer 20 years ago. Josh Allen has that chance still this year.

Had a few in the 10-12 range, and then all over the place after that. But kind of signals to me to stay put and draft. QB is the most important, but looks like it's not the same as the 80s and 90s were.
Interesting but Brady skews it more than just a little when talking specifically about the last 20 years. Also, what kind of witchery is this? Eliminating 2 QBs and 4 SB wins at once by just using the surname of Manning. You've now eliminated half of those 20 years (6 w/Pats winning and 4 with Mannings winning.) But that's not enough for you. You then put the cutoff at 1-9 rather than just first rounders, in general, whereas you eliminate another 5 SB wins w/first rounders. That only leaves us with a mere 5. Then, as if that's all not enough, you completely discount the fact #2 pick Wentz is actually a SB winner.
 

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Luckily there seems to be more and more good QB's, only a matter of time before Bears get a good QB.
 

mattb78

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Its a good point OP, you can find a good QB outside of the top 5 picks. It can happen.

Bears probably do need to draft a QB if they feel it upgrades their roster, even if a player of higher value is on the board.

QB is the only position where you have to throw BPA out the window. Because improving a QB, even incrementally, likely makes the team better than substantially improving the team at another position.

So if you get to 20, and you feel Mac Jones is better than Foles, you take him. Or you trade back to the early 2nd and get Trask if you think he upgrades the position.

That logic only really applies to the QB. Otherwise, its almost always BPA.
 

JD Trendleton

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Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Jackson, Allen, Goff, Mayfield in the divisional round. Seems like you need a quarterback at minimum as good as Baker Mayfield to be a contender in the divisional round.
 

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