Tom Brady Effect

[Mdbearz]

There is always hype about QBs going into the draft, but this year seems to be turbo charged.

The concept that 5 QBs might be taken in the top ten seems like it is out of the ordinary. I am wondering if the entire league and the media saw that a QB really is more important than anything else when Tom Brady went to another team and won another Super Bowl?

Are there really 5 QBs in this draft worthy of a top ten pick, or is it the Tom Brady Effect?

I tend to believe History has shown us that it is a gamble no matter where you take a QB, and if you do not take one, then a team is missing out on the next TB or Mahomes, so teams are willing to risk it all.

Will the Bears risk it all and try to get one of the top 5, or will they simply be out bid due to the frenzy that seems to be happening this year?

 

[Montucky]

Yeah its become quarterback reductionist to the max now. Which is funny, because if you were to re-watch the Super Bowl it would be much more apparent that Tampa Bay's outstanding defense (Devin White should've won Super Bowl MVP) and Kansas City's poor backup offensive tackles were the big difference makers. Pat Mahomes was a total non-factor and Brady just coasted through that game.

 

[bearsfan1977]

Yeah its become quarterback reductionist to the max now. Which is funny, because if you were to re-watch the Super Bowl it would be much more apparent that Tampa Bay's outstanding defense (Devin White should've won Super Bowl MVP) and Kansas City's poor backup offensive tackles were the big difference makers. Pat Mahomes was a total non-factor and Brady just coasted through that game.

Agreed. Brady wasn’t the primary reason TB got to and won the SB.

 

[Montucky]

Agreed. Brady wasn’t the primary reason TB got to and won the SB.

Even if he was the primary reason it wasn't because he was some dynamo on the field. Tom Brady's value comes mostly from the fact that he can calm everyone down and doesn't wilt under pressure. His arm talent is less than any of these quarterbacks in the draft and he literally has zero mobility, but he's a rock that has been in the league twenty years when the average NFL career lasts barely more than two seasons.

The idea that a draft prospect is going to come in and have those intangible traits is fantasy.

 

[Mdbearz]

Yeah its become quarterback reductionist to the max now. Which is funny, because if you were to re-watch the Super Bowl it would be much more apparent that Tampa Bay's outstanding defense (Devin White should've won Super Bowl MVP) and Kansas City's poor backup offensive tackles were the big difference makers. Pat Mahomes was a total non-factor and Brady just coasted through that game.

It is hard to disagree that Tampa was a very good team without Brady, however do you think they win the big game without him? Was Tampa so good that any QB would have won a SB?

 

[aeronaut]

Tom Brady went to another team and won another Super Bowl?

More accurately, Tom Brady chose another team that had a solid OL, good WRs and a good defense, and was just missing a top QB, and helped them get to the Super Bowl and win it. Put Brady on the Texans, Jaguars, or Jets (hah), and he might not have made the playoffs. He didn't go to any of those teams because he had a choice, being a free agent, and he chose wisely, because he knows what he's doing. His football brain is clearly his most valuable asset at this point, and he used it, not to dissect defenses, but to choose a team to hitch his wagon to, and we all know how that worked out.

If there's any Tom Brady effect, I think that it will be this. Top QBs like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, maybe even Derek Carr, will be more inclined to shorter contracts, and then to use that freedom to pick a team to put themselves in a good situation, like Brady did. I can't see Wilson signing an extension with the Seahawks unless they offer him stupid big money. He wants to scan the NFL, look at 32 teams, including the Seahawks, and pick which one is the best fit for him. I could also see QBs clamoring to have option years that they can exercise, walking away from a contract and becoming a free agent if the team they are on spirals into incompetence or fails to support the offense with OL, RB, and WR picks. The rub here is the franchise tag, of course, but for QBs that ends up being so high that in many cases it might be prohibitive to use on all but the very best QB of a generation.

Conversely, when teams get a plus quarterback (well above average, not necessarily tops in the league) they will want to lock him up with a longer contract, preferably with team option years. If he's still top shelf, pay a little more to keep him on board, or renegotiate a longer term deal. After all, team options are the equivalent of a franchise tag, with a negotiated salary, not set by league fiat, and keep more control in the hands of the team.

 

[Montucky]

It is hard to disagree that Tampa was a very good team without Brady, however do you think they win the big game without him? Was Tampa so good that any QB would have won a SB?

It is really hard to say. I think they probably win that Super Bowl with or without Brady because without Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher the Chiefs' offense basically collapsed, and on top of that they ran into an extremely talented and dynamic defensive unit that could hammer that weakness.

But do they make it to the Super Bowl without Brady? I don't know. Tampa Bay had to do a lot of growing over the course of the season to reach that level they were at in the playoffs, they were pretty mediocre to start the year (they lost the fucking Bears!). Tom Brady probably had a lot to do with that growth.

 

[aeronaut]

It is hard to disagree that Tampa was a very good team without Brady, however do you think they win the big game without him? Was Tampa so good that any QB would have won a SB?

I don't think any QB would have beaten the Packers at Lambeau. Put maybe the top 1/3 of QBs in the league on TB, and they win. But if they had, say, Trubisky, or Wentz, or Foles, or Darnold (as they were then, nobody knows what the young ones will turn into later) they lose badly.

Sadly, that game was a lot closer than the Super Bowl. And if LeFleur didn't decide to kick the field goal, it could have turned out differently. I can't imagine Rogers, after the game, not wishing he could pick a team to play for like Brady did.

 

[aeronaut]

(they (Bucs and Brady) lost (to)the fucking Bears!).

They lost to the Bears because Brady lost track of what down it was. He threw the incomplete on 4th down, and thought it was 3rd down. If he had remembered it was 4th down, he might have thrown that pass differently, or done something else altogether. Rare mental miscue by a great QB.

Had Brady remembered the spike to stop the clock and adjusted accordingly, and the rest of the season went the same we'd be picking around 14 now instead of at 20 - Arizona or Minnesota would have lost to the Saints, and we'd have an easier time trading up for a new QB, or getting a more solid player wherever we pick. I'm not advocating tanking for draft position, especially that early in the season, but the 'what ifs' this year are interesting to contemplate.

 

[Montucky]

They lost to the Bears because Brady lost track of what down it was. He threw the incomplete on 4th down, and thought it was 3rd down. If he had remembered it was 4th down, he might have thrown that pass differently, or done something else altogether. Rare mental miscue by a great QB.

Had Brady remembered the spike to stop the clock and adjusted accordingly, and the rest of the season went the same we'd be picking around 14 now instead of at 20 - Arizona or Minnesota would have lost to the Saints, and we'd have an easier time trading up for a new QB, or getting a more solid player wherever we pick. I'm not advocating tanking for draft position, especially that early in the season, but the 'what ifs' this year are interesting to contemplate.

A lot happened in that game for it to get that point though. The Buccaneers in their playoff form would have beaten that Bears team by thirty points.

 

[ZenBear34]

More accurately, Tom Brady chose another team that had a solid OL, good WRs and a good defense, and was just missing a top QB, and helped them get to the Super Bowl and win it. Put Brady on the Texans, Jaguars, or Jets (hah), and he might not have made the playoffs. He didn't go to any of those teams because he had a choice, being a free agent, and he chose wisely, because he knows what he's doing. His football brain is clearly his most valuable asset at this point, and he used it, not to dissect defenses, but to choose a team to hitch his wagon to, and we all know how that worked out.

If there's any Tom Brady effect, I think that it will be this. Top QBs like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, maybe even Derek Carr, will be more inclined to shorter contracts, and then to use that freedom to pick a team to put themselves in a good situation, like Brady did. I can't see Wilson signing an extension with the Seahawks unless they offer him stupid big money. He wants to scan the NFL, look at 32 teams, including the Seahawks, and pick which one is the best fit for him. I could also see QBs clamoring to have option years that they can exercise, walking away from a contract and becoming a free agent if the team they are on spirals into incompetence or fails to support the offense with OL, RB, and WR picks. The rub here is the franchise tag, of course, but for QBs that ends up being so high that in many cases it might be prohibitive to use on all but the very best QB of a generation.

Conversely, when teams get a plus quarterback (well above average, not necessarily tops in the league) they will want to lock him up with a longer contract, preferably with team option years. If he's still top shelf, pay a little more to keep him on board, or renegotiate a longer term deal. After all, team options are the equivalent of a franchise tag, with a negotiated salary, not set by league fiat, and keep more control in the hands of the team.

Even if he was the primary reason it wasn't because he was some dynamo on the field. Tom Brady's value comes mostly from the fact that he can calm everyone down and doesn't wilt under pressure. His arm talent is less than any of these quarterbacks in the draft and he literally has zero mobility, but he's a rock that has been in the league twenty years when the average NFL career lasts barely more than two seasons.

The idea that a draft prospect is going to come in and have those intangible traits is fantasy.

4600 yards, 40 tds(2nd in the NFL). Brady was the reason they got to and won the Super Bowl after going 7-9 last year. These are crazy takes. It's all about the quarterback. It's always all about the quarterback. And Brady is still elite.

 

[Montucky]

4600 yards, 40 tds(2nd in the NFL). Brady was the reason they got to and won the Super Bowl after going 7-9 last year. These are crazy takes. It's all about the quarterback. It's always all about the quarterback. And Brady is still elite.

The 2016 Philadelphia Eagles went 7-9 too and won the Super Bowl the next year with Nick Foles as their quarterback.

 

[aeronaut]

The Buccaneers in their playoff form would have beaten that Bears team by thirty points.

Agree completely. The Bears had yet to have the wheels fall off, and the Bucs hadn't found their sea legs yet (pun intended). Thirty might be too low.

 

[aeronaut]

Brady was the reason they got to and won the Super Bowl after going 7-9 last year.

Consider that in their super bowl loss, that was the first game for Mahomes that he did not throw a touchdown pass, despite making it into Bucs territory at least 5 times. Brady had zero to do with that statistic. And while 31-9 seems like a blowout, 31-21 is much closer. Give the Chiefs a catch instead of a drop on one of the 4th down plays late, and it's 31-28. So the defense kept KC's vaunted offense out of the end zone (sure, without either starting tackle), and Brady did a decent job putting up points for the win.

While Brady played well, and is still elite, there's no question in my mind that the TB defense was a critical component in winning that super bowl, and I think a lot of people agree with me on that.

"It's all about the quarterback. It's always all about the quarterback."

If that's the case, why doesn't Brady win the super bowl every year? He has played 21 seasons, and only 7 wins and 3 losses in the Super Bowl. Maybe the team around him has something to do with it too. Maybe he left New England because he thought he would have a better chance to win the Super Bowl somewhere else, somewhere with an OL, and a D. (Sure, he also wanted to prove to the world that he wasn't just riding on the coat tails of Belichick the Genius who could win a super bowl with any old team. But he could have stayed, could have gone to about half the teams in the league, and he picked TB because they were good, not because it didn't matter.)

 

[aeronaut]

The 2016 Philadelphia Eagles went 7-9 too and won the Super Bowl the next year with Nick Foles as their quarterback.

And the 2016 Eagles beat, as we all know, the Pats and Tom Brady. If it's all about the quarterback, well, doesn't that make Foles the GOAT, then? Or maybe Eli Manning, with two wins over Brady in the super bowl.

 

[Midway Fields]

Agreed. Brady wasn’t the primary reason TB got to and won the SB.

Bahahahahaha

They hadn’t been to the playoffs in like 13 years.

Good one.

 

[Midway Fields]

Even if he was the primary reason it wasn't because he was some dynamo on the field. Tom Brady's value comes mostly from the fact that he can calm everyone down and doesn't wilt under pressure. His arm talent is less than any of these quarterbacks in the draft and he literally has zero mobility, but he's a rock that has been in the league twenty years when the average NFL career lasts barely more than two seasons.

The idea that a draft prospect is going to come in and have those intangible traits is fantasy.

Dude...

He threw for 40 tds 12 ints 4600 yards and was clutch as always in the playoffs.

The only reason the Bucs won it all was because of Tom Brady. Period.

 

[HeHateMe]

IMAGINE BELIEVING THE GOATEST GOAT TO EVER GOAT AT QB IN THE NFL IS JUST REALLY GOOD AT CALMING PEOPLE DOWN LOL WOW

 

[Pegger]

I think it's a combination of a few things:

1 - Brady - As you mentioned, he's made the position potentially overemphasized, but there's no denying it's the most important position on the field.

2 - QBs retiring - This would be Brees, Rivers and to a lesser extent Alex Smith, but there are also QBs who look almost done line Big Ben and Matt Ryan who's best days are probably behind them. This creates a vacuum of talent for that position.

3 - Draft Class - This year does seem fairly loaded with a lot of guys with 1st round grades. What NFL teams are probably doing is taking a look ahead to the 2022 draft and seeing the position appears to be lite. There could always be someone like a Joe Burrow who goes from being a 4th-5th round prospect to the #1 overall pick, but at this time there's no 'Trevor Lawrence' type talent you can see a mile away. As it stands there are 4 QBs with potential first round grades. They are Oregon's Tyler Shough, Ol Miss' Matt Corral, USC's Kedon Slovis and North Carolina's Sam Howell. It's really early, but those guys all have 1st to 3rd round grades, meaning there are a lot of questions on what type of prospect they will be, and the next tier seem to have 4th or later type grades.

4 - Specific team pressures to get a QB - There are some GMs and HCs on the ropes and need to land someone for the future to secure their own employment. Bears are a great example, but there's also a bunch of teams who if they don't get their signal caller now they are just putting back their rebuild.

Anyway, it's fascinating. Vegas currently has the number of QBs drafted in the first round at 5.5, so they are pretty confident about Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, Fields and Lance will be there and it's a coin flip if someone else joins that group. In the past 20 years we've had more than 4 QBs drafted in the first round once, being 2018. This year they are expecting at least 5, which is sorta bonkers. I'm not sure if 6 QBs have ever been drafted in the first round.

 

[Montucky]

Dude...

He threw for 40 tds 12 ints 4600 yards and was clutch as always in the playoffs.

The only reason the Bucs won it all was because of Tom Brady. Period.

What do you mean clutch? Tampa Bay blew out Kansas City, that game was never even close and it had not much to do with Tom Brady. You are letting season statistics betray what you watch with your own eyes.