Victorious Patrick Mahomes Thanks Bears For Drafting Mitchell Trubisky

[Bearly]

the 3, 67, 111 are 2527 pts alone. They gave a third the following year and thats what made the trade lopsided. If they had added another lower round pick it might have been fair. But if i was a gm i would never give up that much to move one spot no matter where I am on the board. And i remember getting in to many arguments with you and you were pretty adamant they needed to trade up. Have you changed your position since then?

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp
The 16th pick in the 3rd round of the 2018 draft was worth 190 points at full value but that gets diminished by up to a round because it's a year later, 56 points. Split the difference if you like and the last pick of round 3 was worth 88 points. Point is, the value was in the correct range. No one making a trade assumes full value for a non current year pick and they get devalued by at least 1/2 round from a the mid round starting point since no team's following year draft position is known at the time of trade. Typically, teams devalue by a full round.

Even at full value of a mid 3rd, which would be wrong, it's 2717 for 2600 (+4%)and that is right in range with teams hold you up for when it's the 1st few picks in a draft. Whether Pace should have done so is a very valid question but the value was fine to get your guy. If it was a 4th as I had thought earlier, Pace got a deal, with the 3rd, he's right on target and being within 4% one way or the other in absolute terms is nothing to make a stink about. No one needs to like the trade but the value was correct.

JJ's trade value chart started out pretty good, got almost unusable due to QB salary demands for early picks before the rookie scale was introduced and now works pretty well again. In fact, early QB values may be low now because the risk/reward ratio of pay vs performance is better than ever. Check out what other trade ups for top 3 QBs in recent drafts have returned on trade. And again, I'm not defending the pick, just the value.

http://www.profootballlogic.com/articles/how-teams-value-draft-picks/
"The result was that teams for the most part appear to simply discount future picks by 1 round compared to current year picks,"

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

There wasnt. I referenced the fact Fox and Ragone apparently wanted someone else. There was disagreement within the Bears that mirrored the disagreement across the league. This was not a situation where a guy like Like was number 1 by everyone.

As I criticized it at the time so not hindsight. Doesnt matter who they picked. It was discussed ad naseum in several threads at the time.

Yes there was since there was one clearly better than the others.

Again, why are you conflating pre-draft analysis with results of picks after the draft which are part of evaluating the effectiveness of scouting and drafting?

Would you honestly have a problem with the tradeup if Mahomes was the pick and he was throwing the ball downfield no-look on target to Bears WRs? I would disagree wholeheartedly in that other universe where it was so.

In this universe, I blame Pace not for trading up but for picking the worst of the 3 no-brain first rounders. I see no reason why Pace has to be held more accountable for trading than he is held accountable for evaluating talent so poorly.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

If the draft was held today here's how I think it would go down:

1) Cleveland - Mahomes
2) San Fran - Watson
3) Chicago - Myles Garrett

So you see? Like my man Rust Cohle says, "Time is a flat circle. Everything we've ever done or will do, we're gonna do over and over and over again."

Therefore we're going to see Mitch walk up to that podium and hold up that #1 jersey over and over and over and over again.

ftfy

EDIT: Or TJ Watt or Juju or Christian McCaffrey or Jamal Adams

 

[Imabearsfan]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/04/12/browns-top-pick-myles-garrett-mitchell-trubisky
https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2017/04/browns_buzz_on_trading_up_myle.html
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...-taking-trubisky-over-garrett-with-no-1-pick/
https://www.sbnation.com/2017/4/27/...itchell-trubisky-adam-schefter-nfl-draft-2017
https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ll-potential-no-1-pick-in-nfl-draft-by-browns

The trade up probably wasn't required but done to prevent the Browns from doing so ahead of us. Once Mitch is gone, Browns then don't trade up a couple spots for Mahomes and trade away their next 1st rounder (12) to Houston (Watson). They wanted Mitch near where we were drafting and Pace knew it because they were talking.

So the Browns wanted Trubisky? Imabearsfan thinks this is yet another reason to NOT draft Trubisky.

 

[TheMarshallPlan]

ftfy

EDIT: Or TJ Watt or Juju or Christian McCaffrey or Jamal Adams

FTFYDILJSBNUK

So then the master plan would then be to have Glennon? Because that was the other stroke of genius back then.

I hit the like button because of your moxie.

 

[remydat]

Yes there was since there was one clearly better than the others.

Again, why are you conflating pre-draft analysis with results of picks after the draft which are part of evaluating the effectiveness of scouting and drafting?

Would you honestly have a problem with the tradeup if Mahomes was the pick and he was throwing the ball downfield no-look on target to Bears WRs? I would disagree wholeheartedly in that other universe where it was so.

In this universe, I blame Pace not for trading up but for picking the worst of the 3 no-brain first rounders. I see no reason why Pace has to be held more accountable for trading than he is held accountable for evaluating talent so poorly.

Again no he wasn't. If Trubs was clearly better than the others then Fox and Ragone would not have favored other QBs. So no there was no consensus among the Bears. Pace and some of his scouts favored Trubs and Fox and some other people favored other QBs. Furthermore there was no consensus across the league. Trubs didn't emerge as the likely top QB until late in the process. Contrast that with Luck who was presumed to be the No 1 QB in his class for years. The point as I said in another post is that the draft is an inexact science so trading up only makes sense if it is a slam dunk. Luck was a slam dunk. No sensible GM would have argued Trubs was a slam dunk with 1 year starting. They may still consider him the top QB but he was not a slam dunk by any means.

You argument is a hindsight one which is not what I am arguing. I am arguing about the decision made at the time not in hindsight and whether the process that arrived at that decision was sound. Go back to the 30 foot shot with 20 seconds on the clock example. It is a dumb shot but if it goes in then obviously people will not complain as much ie hindsight. However, that doesn't mean it wasn't a dumb shot. Whether it was a good shot or not is based on the situation at the time not evaluating the result and deciding after the fact. You can't actually teach people that a shot is good based on whether it goes in or not. You have to teach them the concepts and principles behind when it makes sense to take a shot or not.

The flaw in the draft process is that Pace thought he was the smartest guy in the room. He obviously discounted any contrary evidence regarding Trubs like the fact Fox did not have him No 1 to the point he didn't even bother to let the Coach know. He also discounting all the discussion about the draft class being weak (turns out they were wrong) but the point is there was all this information that would lead one to be cautious. In a situation like that, I would not favor a trade up because while I may be confident in my pick, recognizing that the draft is a crapshoot, I would understand there is always uncertainty and act accordingly.

So my point is freezing out the HC and some of his staff is not the correct process for evaluating talent. Ignoring what others are saying is not the correct process for evaluating talent. It may still work out but the process is still a dumb fucking process. In this case it didn't work out but even if it had, I would still say that is not the correct process to follow. The fact the process is flawed probably also explains why he keeps trading up in early rounds and it fails more often than not. Again smartest guy in room syndrome.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

Again no he wasn't. If Trubs was clearly better than the others then Fox and Ragone would not have favored other QBs. So no there was no consensus among the Bears. Pace and some of his scouts favored Trubs and Fox and some other people favored other QBs. Furthermore there was no consensus across the league. Trubs didn't emerge as the likely top QB until late in the process. Contrast that with Luck who was presumed to be the No 1 QB in his class for years. The point as I said in another post is that the draft is an inexact science so trading up only makes sense if it is a slam dunk. Luck was a slam dunk. No sensible GM would have argued Trubs was a slam dunk with 1 year starting. They may still consider him the top QB but he was not a slam dunk by any means.

You argument is a hindsight one which is not what I am arguing. I am arguing about the decision made at the time not in hindsight and whether the process that arrived at that decision was sound. Go back to the 30 foot shot with 20 seconds on the clock example. It is a dumb shot but if it goes in then obviously people will not complain as much ie hindsight. However, that doesn't mean it wasn't a dumb shot. Whether it was a good shot or not is based on the situation at the time not evaluating the result and deciding after the fact. You can't actually teach people that a shot is good based on whether it goes in or not. You have to teach them the concepts and principles behind when it makes sense to take a shot or not.

The flaw in the draft process is that Pace thought he was the smartest guy in the room. He obviously discounted any contrary evidence regarding Trubs like the fact Fox did not have him No 1 to the point he didn't even bother to let the Coach know. He also discounting all the discussion about the draft class being weak (turns out they were wrong) but the point is there was all this information that would lead one to be cautious. In a situation like that, I would not favor a trade up because while I may be confident in my pick, recognizing that the draft is a crapshoot, I would understand there is always uncertainty and act accordingly.

So my point is freezing out the HC and some of his staff is not the correct process for evaluating talent. Ignoring what others are saying is not the correct process for evaluating talent. It may still work out but the process is still a dumb fucking process. In this case it didn't work out but even if it had, I would still say that is not the correct process to follow. The fact the process is flawed probably also explains why he keeps trading up in early rounds and it fails more often than not. Again smartest guy in room syndrome.

I think this is a misunderstanding. There is one QB clearly better than the others: Mahomes.

It was Pace's job to get the best QB out of the 3.

Most of what you wrote is true. Smartest guy in the room included (and heartily seconded here).

I posted saying I don't blame Pace for trading up IF he got the best QB out there - IF that QB panned out to be the guy.

You posted saying you blame him for trading up, but I doubt you or anyone would have good reason to blame a trade-up if the crapshoot pans out. It may not be smart to ride all your chips on red 7 - hell, at that point it's smarter not to even play - but if you win, you win.

I get it: if he hit on Mahomes, he would be an insufferable prick "knowing" everything even more than he already is.

The clusterfuck around the drafting process is its own hell but if that clusterfuck landed Mahomes at 2 overall, you would be right in saying that the process is fucked up and he suffers from
"smartest guy" syndrome and misuses resources BUT both of us would be happy to land Mahomes in a Bears uniform - regardless of the insanity in the process that got us the best QB.

It would be true in that parallel universe that we would be doubting his process and having to deflect the defense mechanisms of "Yeah but he traded up and BEAT CLE to get Mahomes! GM of the century! Best GM ever!"

 

[remydat]

I think this is a misunderstanding. There is one QB clearly better than the others: Mahomes.

It was Pace's job to get the best QB out of the 3.

Most of what you wrote is true. Smartest guy in the room included (and heartily seconded here).

I posted saying I don't blame Pace for trading up IF he got the best QB out there - IF that QB panned out to be the guy.

You posted saying you blame him for trading up, but I doubt you or anyone would have good reason to blame a trade-up if the crapshoot pans out. It may not be smart to ride all your chips on red 7 - hell, at that point it's smarter not to even play - but if you win, you win.

I get it: if he hit on Mahomes, he would be an insufferable prick "knowing" everything even more than he already is.

The clusterfuck around the drafting process is its own hell but if that clusterfuck landed Mahomes at 2 overall, you would be right in saying that the process is fucked up and he suffers from
"smartest guy" syndrome and misuses resources BUT both of us would be happy to land Mahomes in a Bears uniform - regardless of the insanity in the process that got us the best QB.

It would be true in that parallel universe that we would be doubting his process and having to deflect the defense mechanisms of "Yeah but he traded up and BEAT CLE to get Mahomes! GM of the century! Best GM ever!"

Yes then this is a misunderstanding. I was saying since there was no Luck in that draft, he should not have traded up. I said it then and I said it now so I am judging him on the circumstances that existed at the time and saying it was silly to trade up and it was silly to freeze out his Coach and those that disagreed with him on Trubs.

But of course, if it ends up working out then no one is going to belabor the point. And quite frankly if he had a good record of hitting on these then I would say that maybe the process does work for him. That was why I brought up Curry. He hits enough of those long 3s that while it may be dumb for others to shoot them, it isn't for him. However, Pace doesn't have that track record as he has whiffed on Floyd, Trubs, and Miller in terms of 1-2 round trade ups.

So to close, I think his process was flawed and continues to be flawed when it comes to trading up and his falling in love with his own opinion. Having said that, if he were actually right more often than not and had for example taken Mahomes then I would not make a big deal about it.

 

[TailGator]

KC jumped 17 spots in the 1st round because they spotted some things in Mahomes THAT OTHERS DID NOT!!!!
When was the last 1st Rd QB taken with a trade up of at least 17 spots? Sanchez of Jets??

Nobody knew he would be this good---But Obviously KC didn't think he would SUCK to move up that many spots

For that big of a jump (17 spots) I'd love to know from Nagy what they saw and why? He was in the room now whether or not the GM shared anything with any of the coaches besides Reid is another question

 

[Bearly]

But there was a Luck+ in this draft. The issue is actually being the smartest guy in the room so to be able to recognize it like Reid.

 

[remydat]

But there was a Luck+ in this draft. The issue is actually being the smartest guy in the room so to be able to recognize it like Reid.

By Luck I mean someone virtually everyone agrees is the best QB prospect. That obviously wasnt the case with Mahomes as otherwise he would have been drafted at 1.

Luck wasnt just considered the beat QB He was considered the beat player in the draft at any position.

 

[Bearly]

Still, GMs move like crazy for QBs in almost any draft and right or wrong, Trubs was the #1 guy by most accounts. You don't need to be Luck to see that sort of movement. Sure Pace was wrong to do it in retrospect but the fact you personally didn't feel it viable at the time doesn't make it so. It does make it appear you were correct

 

[remydat]

Still, GMs move like crazy for QBs in almost any draft and right or wrong, Trubs was the #1 guy by most accounts. You don't need to be Luck to see that sort of movement. Sure Pace was wrong to do it in retrospect but the fact you personally didn't feel it viable at the time doesn't make it so. It does make it appear you were correct

Sure I agree that just because I feel that way doesnt mean it is true. I am just saying my personal philosophy is I would not trade up unless it was as sure a thing as possible.

I also dont like the idea of ignoring what the head coach thinks. To me that is just dysfunctional.

 

[Bearly]

Fox? Passing? Fox wanted Glennon and to draft a different position.
Not a great source but http://sportsmockery.com/2017/12/logic-pairing-ryan-pace-john-fox-flawed/

 

[remydat]

Fox? Passing? Fox wanted Glennon and to draft a different position.
Not a great source but http://sportsmockery.com/2017/12/logic-pairing-ryan-pace-john-fox-flawed/

Nah Tribune did an in depth where it was noted Fox had Watson as his top QB.

Fox, who rated Watson as his top quarterback, didn’t learn of Pace’s intention to select a quarterback until the morning of the draft, according to multiple people with knowledge of the situation. Other prominent figures in the organization received the Trubisky news from Roger Goodell’s mouth as the NFL commissioner announced the pick on live TV from a stage in Philadelphia.

In fact, coach John Fox rated the Clemson star as his top quarterback in the 2017 class. So did quarterbacks coach Dave Ragone.
But ultimately, Ryan Pace and Josh Lucas had fallen harder for Mitch Trubisky, believing the North Carolina quarterback had greater pocket presence and accuracy.

But ultimately, Ryan Pace and Josh Lucas had fallen harder for Mitch Trubisky, believing the North Carolina quarterback had greater pocket presence and accuracy.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

Also details how several observers thought their profess was flawed. Again Pace ultimately decided he was smartest guy in room ignored what guys like Fox and Ragone thought and didnt do proper due dilligence on some of the other QBs.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Sure I agree that just because I feel that way doesnt mean it is true. I am just saying my personal philosophy is I would not trade up unless it was as sure a thing as possible.

I also dont like the idea of ignoring what the head coach thinks. To me that is just dysfunctional.

That's the thing. Pace probably did think Trubisky was a sure thing.

So to me, the problem is his talent evaluation at the QB position. Not him making the bold trade up.

 

[Bearly]

Nah Tribune did an in depth where it was noted Fox had Watson as his top QB.

Fox, who rated Watson as his top quarterback, didn’t learn of Pace’s intention to select a quarterback until the morning of the draft, according to multiple people with knowledge of the situation. Other prominent figures in the organization received the Trubisky news from Roger Goodell’s mouth as the NFL commissioner announced the pick on live TV from a stage in Philadelphia.

In fact, coach John Fox rated the Clemson star as his top quarterback in the 2017 class. So did quarterbacks coach Dave Ragone.
But ultimately, Ryan Pace and Josh Lucas had fallen harder for Mitch Trubisky, believing the North Carolina quarterback had greater pocket presence and accuracy.

But ultimately, Ryan Pace and Josh Lucas had fallen harder for Mitch Trubisky, believing the North Carolina quarterback had greater pocket presence and accuracy.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

Also details how several observers thought their profess was flawed. Again Pace ultimately decided he was smartest guy in room ignored what guys like Fox and Ragone thought and didnt do proper due dilligence on some of the other QBs.

Rating and wanting aren't the same. Just because Ragone preferred Watson doesn't mean Pace didn't listen. He's allowed to go a different way and Fox already had one foot out the door. Pace didn't want anyone to know they were QB shopping so kept interviews secret and to a minimum.

 

[remydat]

That's the thing. Pace probably did think Trubisky was a sure thing.

So to me, the problem is his talent evaluation at the QB position. Not him making the bold trade up.

Yes I am sure he did but again if there is dissent within the ranks that should be considered.

Rating and wanting aren't the same. Just because Ragone preferred Watson doesn't mean Pace didn't listen. He's allowed to go a different way and Fox already had one foot out the door. Pace didn't want anyone to know they were QB shopping so kept interviews secret and to a minimum.

I am not suggesting Pace has to give up ultimate decision making. I am saying if everyone in that room is not convinced Trubs is the best QB then that should be considered. If Fox and Ragone had Watson No 1, the solution isn't freezing them out and doing less due dilligence on Watson. It is fully airing out the reasons for that dissent and doing more due dilligence not less.

As for being secretive, it is absurd for that secrecy to include not telling the people responsible for coaching talent required. It suggests you dont trust your coach to keep a secret which is quote dysfunctional.

 

[jive]

Sometimes, I just think it's the curse of Bobby Layne.

 

[Alpha Male]

Rating and wanting aren't the same. Just because Ragone preferred Watson doesn't mean Pace didn't listen. He's allowed to go a different way and Fox already had one foot out the door. Pace didn't want anyone to know they were QB shopping so kept interviews secret and to a minimum.

Doesn't seem like he listened to his coaches. He didn't even meet with watson while he met with trubisky many times. And just because it was fox's lame duck season doesn't mean he should not take his wants into consideration.