What to hope for from 3M to close out the season?

[remydat]

The die has been cast and 3M (Mental Midget Mitch) is back as the starter and rightfully so. Not because he has earned it per se but because Foles has certainly lost it the last few games. Foles is a lock to return next year with the best case scenario being he is a good backup behind a better QB or worse case he is a stopgap starter behind an improved OL. In any event, this is 3M's last audition for the Bears and prospective suitors in free agency so here is what he needs to do IMO to take advantage of it.

1. When 3M was successful for periods of time in 2018, that success was built off of his mobility. Three shoulder injuries later and 3M appears gun shy to run the ball which has resulted in a precipitous decline in his performance under pressure. 3M legit went from a top 5 QB against pressure (both running and passing) in 2018 to one of the worst QBs at handling pressure in 2019 and his short stint in 2020. The only way he is going to salvage some value is for him to not be afraid to run particularly on 3rd downs. He has to find the right balance between keeping his eyes downfield to see if a big play develops vs taking what the defense has given him and scramble for whatever yards he can get. 2018 3M seemed to be developing that balance but he has regressed significantly in that regard as teams have tried to adjust somewhat by taking the run away. However, teams seem to be less inclined to spy on 3M now presumably because they have noticed his dialing back the run so it is time for 3M to go back to it so that teams are forced to devote one man to spying him opening up opportunities in the secondary.

2. We all know 3M's great struggle as a QB thus far has been reading defenses particularly zone. Part of the reason he has earned the 3M moniker. As he has had time to sit and reflect on what got him benched as well as see another QB run the offense over an extended period of time, ideally you would hope he has developed a greater appreciation of the nuances of the offense. This inability to read defenses has manifested itself in the fact that 3M has always been bottom of the league when it comes to passer rating when in a clean pocket. This has always been my biggest rebuttal to everyone that blames all his struggles on the OL. It simply isn't the case. Mitch has never finished higher than 18th (2018 again) when it comes to passer rating in a clean pocket and the last 2 years he has been at the very bottom of the NFL. His passer rating the last 3 years in a clean pocket is 100.5, 93, 97.1. This looks good at first glance but as a QB you really need to be around 105 or higher passer rating in a clean pocket to really be effective as this is where you have to earn your keep. And this isn't something that only elite QBs do. Kirk Cousins is at 116.9 in a clean pocket, Teddy Bridgewater is at 116.7. Tua the rookie from Miami is at 113.4. This really has been 3M's biggest failing as a QB thus far in the NFL and this is not the OL's fault. When given the opportunity to go thru progressions and find the open man, 3M simply has not done it at a rate that is necessary to be a good QB in this league. That goes back to again being able to read defenses quickly and be decisive with the ball.

Fix both of the above and you basically have a top 10-15 QB in the NFL but that is easier said than done. If he hovers around 100 passer rating in a clean pocket but then can go back to being one of the better QBs against pressure then you pretty much have 2018 Mitch but the real leap in his development is going to be improving his numbers in a clean pocket because at the end of the day all QBs still spend the bulk of their time throwing without pressure. Joe Flacco and Daniel Jones lead the NFL in pressure percentage and they both still spend 56% and 57% of the time in a clean pocket. 3M was clean 75.5% and Foles despite all the pressure he faces having played better defenses is still clean 65% of the time.

 

[hebs]

Why did Tua get benched? I missed the reason outside of “he wasn’t playing well”.

 

[Black Rainbow]

This inability to read defenses has manifested itself in the fact that 3M has always been bottom of the league when it comes to passer rating when in a clean pocket.

Good post.

...And we'll be reminded of this on Sunday. As someone who's watched football since the 80s, you either got it at this point or you never will. We all know he's got great work ethic...you know he studies film...but it's not translating on the field. He's processing too slow and when he's overwhelmed he panics by rolling out or dumping off - often not seeing open WRs.

He'll be 27 years old next season. How long are we going to keep watching the same thing?

 

[Da Bears Oregon]

Why did Tua get benched? I missed the reason outside of “he wasn’t playing well”.

Ouch! That left a mark.......

 

[HearshotKDS]

I’m a bit worried Mitch goes 4-2 in the last 6 games and Bears are dumb enough to pull a Bortles and extend him. Outside of GB the last teams on the schedule are weak (although HOU and MIN are probably trending up), and one thing Mitch has done well in his career is beat up on bad teams. Still rooting for the Bears to win, but hoping the FO has the wisdom to not make any decisions solely based on the last 6 games of the season.

 

[Chris Sojka]

The o line is trash. Trubisky needs to carry them with his legs.

 

[Bearly]

I hope to see progressions and good choices with the ball and his legs. No giving up yards running OB when he can dump the ball or forcing it when pressured. More downfield throws than we've seen from Foles.

Expectations are a bit different but I remain hopeful.

 

[JesusHalasChrist]

I hope he plays well enough to get the Bears a 5th rd comp pick

 

[Anytime23]

If you check his diaper post-game and it isn't filled with doodoo, i think its a major success.

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

The o line is trash. Trubisky needs to carry them with his legs.

Will be slightly improved with coward off the field. Like a pile if shit, instead of trash... the dude is not an OL Special person coaching staff.

 

[bamainatlanta]

My hope - Mitch has a psychotic mental breakdown at the half and retires but on his way out the door, he beats Foles & Nagy senseless and Foles/Nagy havr to retire as well. Win-win-win

 

[Adipost]

Good point on the clean pockets, and that is why the offensive line will look much improved Sunday night. Opposing defenses would rather Trubisky throw from a clean pocket than scramble out of the pocket.

The primary goal of most defenses is to keep Trubisky in the pocket. So the edge rushers have to stay disciplined and maintain the edge. This will take a major burden off of the OT’s.

Teams are also now playing a lot of 8 man zones against Trubisky, which was started by the Packers. This, again, takes a major load off of the Oline. Even with 7 man zones, they occasionally deploy a spy, which again results in a 3 man rush.

For Trubisky, it’s going to come down to what’s always been his issue. Can he diagnose coverages at NFL speed and make the proper reads.

 

[remydat]

Why did Tua get benched? I missed the reason outside of “he wasn’t playing well”.

He had a foot injury and did look to twist it a bit. But yes he was not playing well.

But he illustrates my point. In that game he was pressured on 14 of 26 dropbacks or a whopping 54% of the time. His rating on those snaps was 45.8

By contrast on the 12 dropbacks he wasnt pressured he posted a QB rating of 108.3 which is much better than 3M's 97.1 this season in clean pockets.

So again 3M's problem is he simply doesnt take advantage of clean pockets like even rookie QBs who otherwise sucked do.

 

[WindyCity]

I hope he plays at an elite level. Tears it up for 6 games and then the Bears fire Nagy and Pace and franchise tag Mitch.

They through him under the bus, he climbed up through the hatch, like in Speed, and then drives the bus over them... while Nick Foles watches.

 

[remydat]

The o line is trash. Trubisky needs to carry them with his legs.

So you mean he needs to do what franchise QBs are supposed to do?

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

So you mean he needs to do what franchise QBs are supposed to do?

What would Mitch need to do for you to take the 3M name away?

 

[MikeDitkaPolishSausage]

If you check his diaper post-game and it isn't filled with doodoo, i think its a major success.

I think I’d rather see this then the Bears winning. How often do you get to see a grown man shit his diaper? At least we have seen Bears wins in the past.

 

[Leomaz]

I’m a bit worried Mitch goes 4-2 in the last 6 games and Bears are dumb enough to pull a Bortles and extend him. Outside of GB the last teams on the schedule are weak (although HOU and MIN are probably trending up), and one thing Mitch has done well in his career is beat up on bad teams. Still rooting for the Bears to win, but hoping the FO has the wisdom to not make any decisions solely based on the last 6 games of the season.

4-2 will not get Mitch resigned unless there is playoff wins.....meaning more than 1. This Bears team should be rid of its coaching staff and GM after this season. The only reason it won’t be is because of the pandemic and all the excuses that come with it.

 

[hebs]

He had a foot injury and did look to twist it a bit. But yes he was not playing well.

But he illustrates my point. In that game he was pressured on 14 of 26 dropbacks or a whopping 54% of the time. His rating on those snaps was 45.8

By contrast on the 12 dropbacks he wasnt pressured he posted a QB rating of 108.3 which is much better than 3M's 97.1 this season in clean pockets.

So again 3M's problem is he simply doesnt take advantage of clean pockets like even rookie QBs who otherwise sucked do.

I think Tua’s sample size is too small for a use case.

also

Mitch has a lot of room for improvement and I’m not sure he’s capable of doing so. It would be nice to see him succeed as a Bear, being a fan and all... but I don’t see it happening.

 

[HearshotKDS]

4-2 will not get Mitch resigned unless there is playoff wins.....meaning more than 1. This Bears team should be rid of its coaching staff and GM after this season. The only reason it won’t be is because of the pandemic and all the excuses that come with it.

Yeah I hope so but this FO has made head scratching moves before. Like an ex-President once said:
“fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me— you can't get fooled again.”“