Who could the Cubs trade before the upcoming deadline?

TL1961

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Like i said earlier, i'd just assume the cubs QO contreras if they don't get a decent recent return. Getting another top like 70 pick when the cubs likely have like a top 5 draft pick gives them a lot of options with money to go after various plays
Certainly a pick will be better than nothing at all, but it won't match what they could have received in trade.

That being said, my preference would be to extend him. I just thought they had given up on that idea, but perhaps not.
 

SilenceS

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I have been very supportive of the rebuild moves made by the FO over the past year, and I have heard the ex post facto rationalizations for keeping Happ and Contreras.

But bottom line they F'd up this trade deadline and misplayed their hand. Badly. Of course I don't know what they were offered but it doesn't matter, a good FO moves assets at the optimal time and gets an ROI, no excuses. This was a real head-scratcher.
Meh, what was the market for him?

I didnt see a big one. Astros have Maldonado who is not good offensively but is the absolute leader of that team. He was never not going to catch the majority and one of Contreras knocks is pitch framing.

Happ became valuable when not a lot of bats were out there. Soto changed that.

Not many teams did a whole lot besides the Padres.

Astros got Mancini and Vazquez which will be platoon types.

Padres landing everyone cost us.

The Dodgers took Joey Gallo.

The rest didnt go after big bats. The market was never huge and shrunk more with Soto.

There is no reason to give up Happ for peanuts. Contreras there is options there as well.
 

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I have been very supportive of the rebuild moves made by the FO over the past year, and I have heard the ex post facto rationalizations for keeping Happ and Contreras.

But bottom line they F'd up this trade deadline and misplayed their hand. Badly. Of course I don't know what they were offered but it doesn't matter, a good FO moves assets at the optimal time and gets an ROI, no excuses. This was a real head-scratcher.
I'm guessing they had a price they wanted for Willy and were standing firm on it......for one thing it lowers his leverage and if it was lowered enough that they may just toss an offer his way. Which is fine by me.....a 30 year old catcher than can hit, throw and run is well worth keeping plus the DH extends his shelf life. You don't find catchers like that very often. Happ still has a year of control left. It's not a big guffaw unless they turned down a great offer....but that's doubtful and also unknown.
 

TL1961

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Yanks Montgomery to Cards for Bader.....good, I hated that little PIA.
I have a friend whose daughter (with help from mom) literally stalked him to get a pic and autograph. (Not at a game. On an off day)

A different friend posted on FB that his daughter is devastated, and got a reply from another who said same thing.

Apparently Bader was a pre-teen's favorite. :ROFLMAO:
 

TL1961

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I'm guessing they had a price they wanted for Willy and were standing firm on it......for one thing it lowers his leverage and if it was lowered enough that they may just toss an offer his way. Which is fine by me.....a 30 year old catcher than can hit, throw and run is well worth keeping plus the DH extends his shelf life. You don't find catchers like that very often. Happ still has a year of control left. It's not a big guffaw unless they turned down a great offer....but that's doubtful and also unknown.
Well, obviously with Contreras unsigned, there is a possibility of getting only that pick s mentioned, But overall, I was prepared for a trade for far less than we initially hoped. I am glad they didn't do that.

Maybe it's true they screwed themselves by waiting on SD, but keeping both is preferable to "giving them away".
 

SilenceS

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Yea, Jed said it wasnt enough buyers and the teams who expressed interest werent willing to give up anything that would be better than what they value the QO pick for him.
 

beckdawg

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Certainly a pick will be better than nothing at all, but it won't match what they could have received in trade.
Not sure I agree. Compensatory picks last year started at 75 for similar situation to where the cubs will be. The 75th pick was worth $873,700 for the mets this year. Fangraphs had a roughly 40 grade on 75th and lower prospects. They had a 45 grade on Mark Vientos who the mets apparently were unwilling to include in any deal.

There's two reason I'd almost certainly rather the pick if that was where willy's market was. The first is simple. You simply have more choices of people in the draft than you do via trade and the people in the draft have less consideration for rule 5. The obvious down side is that they are farther away.

The other reason is because having more money in the draft allows you to do more interesting things. For example, let's say the cubs wind up with a top 5 pick. You could conceivably float to the better picks in the draft that you're willing to go over slot the extra mil or so you'll get from this pick to try to entice them not to sign with teams picking above you. Or they could do more like they did this year in the draft and try to get 3 first round type picks out of the draft rather than 1.

Ultimately, if Willy had the kind of value that is worth more than those options he would have been traded. And obviously that's to say nothing of the idea of keeping him by signing an extension
 

RacerX

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Meh, what was the market for him?

I didnt see a big one. Astros have Maldonado who is not good offensively but is the absolute leader of that team. He was never not going to catch the majority and one of Contreras knocks is pitch framing.

Happ became valuable when not a lot of bats were out there. Soto changed that.

Not many teams did a whole lot besides the Padres.

Astros got Mancini and Vazquez which will be platoon types.

Padres landing everyone cost us.

The Dodgers took Joey Gallo.

The rest didnt go after big bats. The market was never huge and shrunk more with Soto.

There is no reason to give up Happ for peanuts. Contreras there is options there as well.
I understand your point, but a good GM could have anticipated that the cards may fall along these lines, and they should have been proactive and jumped the line for trade assets.

And it doesn't really matter what the market was, they should have optimized the return regardless of market circumstances and dynamics. If they didn't like the trades offered they needed to get creative. It's really not that difficult.

Regardless of circumstances, playing musical chairs and getting left standing is a fail. Up to this point I would have graded the rebuild a B+/A-, but this deadline grade was a "D" at best. I'm not jumping off ship and the rebuild is still on track, but just being honest that they fucked this one up.
 

RacerX

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I'm guessing they had a price they wanted for Willy and were standing firm on it......for one thing it lowers his leverage and if it was lowered enough that they may just toss an offer his way. Which is fine by me.....a 30 year old catcher than can hit, throw and run is well worth keeping plus the DH extends his shelf life. You don't find catchers like that very often. Happ still has a year of control left. It's not a big guffaw unless they turned down a great offer....but that's doubtful and also unknown.
There was not and will not be a better time to move either one of them. The goal was not a "great return", it was optimize ROI and get the best return the market will offer.

Standing firm on an asking price in a trade is not a measure of discipline or leverage, it's misreading what the market will bear and unfortunately our FO does not get to dictate market returns. No excuses for this deadline fail IMO..
 

Probie2429

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They can say whatever they want but they flubbed up big time. They knew they were going to be sellers months ago and still didn’t move their best trade asset in Willy. You aren’t required to trade just on TDL day. Happ is a different story because his value is likely higher next year to a contender when he will be a pure rental.
 

RacerX

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Well, obviously with Contreras unsigned, there is a possibility of getting only that pick s mentioned, But overall, I was prepared for a trade for far less than we initially hoped. I am glad they didn't do that.

Maybe it's true they screwed themselves by waiting on SD, but keeping both is preferable to "giving them away".
They misread the market and got outplayed, and there is no evidence to suggest the alternative to keeping them was to give them away - only that t was less than what the FO thought they were worth. They were wrong.
 

beckdawg

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And it doesn't really matter what the market was, they should have optimized the return regardless of market circumstances and dynamics.
How do you know this isn't the most optimized return? Prior to this season Willy was a slightly above average hitter. It's clear that given the lack of interest in him that many teams aren't very fond of his defense. So, it's not like offers would have been better prior. Obviously this season his bat went off and they struggled to find acceptable offers.

As I've said in other posts people are acting like a top 75 pick in the draft doesn't hold value. It's entirely possible the cubs can get more value out of that pick then would ever have been offered to them. For example, Brennen Davis got $1.1 mil signing bonus as the 62nd overall pick. That's not far off what the cubs will likely get if willy becomes a FA and doesn't accept a QO.

Now sure you have to draft well but the same could be said about any trade. It's purely about scouting. There's tons of second round picks who've become super stars. Frankly if the offers weren't solid I'd prefer to see the cubs take their chances on drafting and developing someone they like than to sell low for guys who clearly aren't great prospects.
 

TL1961

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There was not and will not be a better time to move either one of them. The goal was not a "great return", it was optimize ROI and get the best return the market will offer.

Standing firm on an asking price in a trade is not a measure of discipline or leverage, it's misreading what the market will bear and unfortunately our FO does not get to dictate market returns. No excuses for this deadline fail IMO..
I disagree on both counts, at least with Happ. How can you say there's never a better time if the market wasn't there this year, and the Cubs have another year of control? Besides, it's not a foregone conclusion they have to trade him.

And not standing firm means you didn't get what you felt was worth it to you. It doesn't mean you overvalued them. It means you made a decision on a minimum price that made trading the better option, and teams didn't meet it.
 

Castor76

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They misread the market and got outplayed, and there is no evidence to suggest the alternative to keeping them was to give them away - only that t was less than what the FO thought they were worth. They were wrong.
How can you say they were wrong when you have no idea what they were offered? Rightly or wrongly, they felt what they were offered was not enough to trade the players away. Only time will tell there. It's not as if the Cubs are in a financial crunch and need to shed payroll. Happ is still under control for another season. And it's not like Jed could have made Willy a lefty bat to trade away, which seems to be what was mostly being sought after.
 

TL1961

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One thing is undeniable. Couch GM is the easiest job in the world.
 

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Jed must think he'd get a better prospect in 2nd comp round after he QO's Willy that whatever teams were offering. The rumor mill said the Mets weren't dropping good prospects for rentals, so no reason to give him away for the sake of doing it.

Happ was disappointing. Thought his value could have been maximized as the team he could have gone to had another year of him and he's crushing it and is utility.
 

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They misread the market and got outplayed, and there is no evidence to suggest the alternative to keeping them was to give them away - only that t was less than what the FO thought they were worth. They were wrong.
I love the "you go with the best return the market will offer"......LOL. So, you are LA and you don't want to pay Ohtani the following season.....the best deadline offer you get is Ortega and Schwindel from the Cubs. You jump on it, right? I mean it's the best offer. You don't wait till the off season to try and get more. You take it because it doesn't really matter what the market was because it was the optimized return at this deadline. The best ROI you can get....so, you take it.
 

RacerX

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How do you know this isn't the most optimized return? Prior to this season Willy was a slightly above average hitter. It's clear that given the lack of interest in him that many teams aren't very fond of his defense. So, it's not like offers would have been better prior. Obviously this season his bat went off and they struggled to find acceptable offers.

As I've said in other posts people are acting like a top 75 pick in the draft doesn't hold value. It's entirely possible the cubs can get more value out of that pick then would ever have been offered to them. For example, Brennen Davis got $1.1 mil signing bonus as the 62nd overall pick. That's not far off what the cubs will likely get if willy becomes a FA and doesn't accept a QO.

Now sure you have to draft well but the same could be said about any trade. It's purely about scouting. There's tons of second round picks who've become super stars. Frankly if the offers weren't solid I'd prefer to see the cubs take their chances on drafting and developing someone they like than to sell low for guys who clearly aren't great prospects.
I acknowledge your theory to be a plausible scenario for Contreras, though I find it slightly improbable - he was a high value target for many teams heading into the deadline. And you haven't addressed the Happ sitch.

How can you say they were wrong when you have no idea what they were offered? Rightly or wrongly, they felt what they were offered was not enough to trade the players away. Only time will tell there. It's not as if the Cubs are in a financial crunch and need to shed payroll. Happ is still under control for another season. And it's not like Jed could have made Willy a lefty bat to trade away, which seems to be what was mostly being sought after.
I think you just typed a bunch of nonsense:
1. So doesn't matter if a G.M. is "right or wrong" as long as he follows his feelings? No, fuck his feelings, he gets paid for accretive transactions and he failed in this regard, this particular time. ( I am still a strong supporter overall)
2. Well of course only time will tell, we all know that, but we are analyzing the non-moves based on what we know today.
3. The Cubs balance sheet has absolutely zero to do with the Happ decision , Nothing. Nada.
4. So the rationale after the fact - though some of us knew this before the deadline - is that Contreras doesn't bat lefty?

I disagree on both counts, at least with Happ. How can you say there's never a better time if the market wasn't there this year, and the Cubs have another year of control? Besides, it's not a foregone conclusion they have to trade him.

And not standing firm means you didn't get what you felt was worth it to you. It doesn't mean you overvalued them. It means you made a decision on a minimum price that made trading the better option, and teams didn't meet it.
You have to believe Happ is at his optimal career value right now, who has faith he will stay healthy and play at this level ever again?
Also, my point regarding return trade value was that it was the FO's duty not to make a non-market valuation target, or else to get creative and cobble together a trade package. Not that hard, really.

I love the "you go with the best return the market will offer"......LOL. So, you are LA and you don't want to pay Ohtani the following season.....the best deadline offer you get is Ortega and Schwindel from the Cubs. You jump on it, right? I mean it's the best offer. You don't wait till the off season to try and get more. You take it because it doesn't really matter what the market was because it was the optimized return at this deadline. The best ROI you can get....so, you take it.
I said the best market value, and in your example the consideration for Ohtani is obviously a joke and not anywhere near equal consideration, so not sure what point you are trying to make.
 

beckdawg

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I acknowledge your theory to be a plausible scenario for Contreras, though I find it slightly improbable - he was a high value target for many teams heading into the deadline. And you haven't addressed the Happ sitch.
Happ I don't think had to be moved this deadline. Like I can understand your thought process that someone will almost always have more value in july vs october-december. But I think in his case there's far less pressure to move him. I also think there's benefit to not moving him with regard to FA. Like if you're a FA and see the cubs sell off 6 all-star players in 2 years are you really in a hurry to sign? Having happ around makes the team look slightly more appealing to FAs IMO.

As for Willy being high value... idk anymore tbh. Like it's easy for us as cub fans to say that. But I think people under rate how much defense and framing has come into C in the minds of MLB teams. I think the front office likely had the right value on him but the issue is other teams may view him differently based on needs. Like clearly the Mets wanted him and a name in the media was Mark Vientos. But if you ask me I don't want him. He's very much a wisdom like bat only he plays 1B which is to say a bad average and lots of power. If that's the "fair value" out there for willy I would rather gamble on a draft pick. Maybe you find someone like Davis who people questioned his swing but he had very good tools for his other 4 and you can develop him. With a player like that if you fix their flaws the upside is big but with someone like Vientos i just don't really see the upside. He's a power hitting 1B.... but 1B are pretty easy to find.

Matt Allen was really the only name the mets had that very much interested me. TB and cleveland I never saw making the trade because I think they are very big into the framing thought process. Like wise houston went out and got Vazquez who's better defensively.
 

TL1961

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I acknowledge your theory to be a plausible scenario for Contreras, though I find it slightly improbable - he was a high value target for many teams heading into the deadline. And you haven't addressed the Happ sitch.


I think you just typed a bunch of nonsense:
1. So doesn't matter if a G.M. is "right or wrong" as long as he follows his feelings? No, fuck his feelings, he gets paid for accretive transactions and he failed in this regard, this particular time. ( I am still a strong supporter overall)
2. Well of course only time will tell, we all know that, but we are analyzing the non-moves based on what we know today.
3. The Cubs balance sheet has absolutely zero to do with the Happ decision , Nothing. Nada.
4. So the rationale after the fact - though some of us knew this before the deadline - is that Contreras doesn't bat lefty?


You have to believe Happ is at his optimal career value right now, who has faith he will stay healthy and play at this level ever again?
Also, my point regarding return trade value was that it was the FO's duty not to make a non-market valuation target, or else to get creative and cobble together a trade package. Not that hard, really.


I said the best market value, and in your example the consideration for Ohtani is obviously a joke and not anywhere near equal consideration, so not sure what point you are trying to make.
So......one of your arguments is trade Happ now because he could get injured someday? His value is at an all time high as though he's playing so far over his head he could never be this valuable again? That's insane.

Also, your entire argument is built around saying "No" to a deal is automatically the wrong move. ANY deal is better than no deal. If both were FA's, both had declared they'd never sign an extension and you receive no pick as compensation, then that may be so. But that's not the case at all.

A GM's job is not to make moves for the sake of saying he made moves, contrary to your way of thinking.

You claim his example on Otahni is a joke because it is not "market value", as opposed to potential offers you know nothing about that the Cubs allegedly turned down. How do you know they were offered "market value", when they themselves determined they weren't?

Why do fans think they know more than GMs, and how do fans determine all these offers were made when there's no evidence of any such thing?
 

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