Yoenis Cespedes Granted Free Agency

[Captain Obvious]

really? are you seriously going there? cmon man.

"If we're somehow" That's not saying we will be or I think we will be at all. It's purely hypothetical of the 2% chance we have to be good.

 

[Rice Cube]

I'm amused that everyone is strongly arguing what Theo is going to do when Theo has the best poker face in recent GM history :lol:

Nobody knows crap. "We" aren't going to do anything. The Cubs will do what they think is best. We have no idea what that something is that they will do. There is no guarantee of anything except random strategic leaks and even those are not always reliable. Chill the fuck out and wait and see.

Thank goodness none of us are GMs.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

I'm amused that everyone is strongly arguing what Theo is going to do when Theo has the best poker face in recent GM history :lol:

Nobody knows crap. "We" aren't going to do anything. The Cubs will do what they think is best. We have no idea what that something is that they will do. There is no guarantee of anything except random strategic leaks and even those are not always reliable. Chill the fuck out and wait and see.

Thank goodness none of us are GMs.

one of more reasoned posts on this thread

if you think you know whats going to happen(even suggesting it)...you're completely BSing yourself...theo goes about his business confidentially...dont try to read too much into the tea leaves..

 

[Captain Obvious]

one of more reasoned posts on this thread

if you think you know whats going to happen(even suggesting it)...you're completely BSing yourself...theo goes about his business confidentially...dont try to read too much into the tea leaves..

If you don't suggest it, what fun is a forum? Forums without arguments aren't fun. That's why I stay around here, because no one sees things my way. It'd be a lot more fun if 90% of the people who disagree had reasoning and logic behind their thoughts, but it's fun nonetheless. Plus, it's pretty easy to see what Theo is doing, building assets, as he has said. Cespedes, Soler, and Concepcion are all assets. It makes sense.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

If you don't suggest it, what fun is a forum? Forums without arguments aren't fun.

where in my post did i imply that? you have to understand this isnt what theo is doing in the offseason right now isnt the only topic in this forum

That's why I stay around here, because no one sees things my way. It'd be a lot more fun if 90% of the people who disagree had reasoning and logic behind their thoughts, but it's fun nonetheless. Plus, it's pretty easy to see what Theo is doing, building assets, as he has said. Cespedes, Soler, and Concepcion are all assets. It makes sense.

or he could do something completely different because something else pops up...or maybe he has a different plan in mind

 

[Captain Obvious]

where in my post did i imply that? you have to understand this isnt what theo is doing in the offseason right now isnt the only topic in this forum




or he could do something completely different because something else pops up...or maybe he has a different plan in mind

Yeah, he's gone half the off-season building assets building toward the future, but now he's going to change things up.

*Maybe* he does have a different plan, but it's not hard to see how the Cubs are being connected to the Cubans and let's be serious here, Theo isn't a Special person. He realizes that this is the last chance we can assert ourselves as a big market in the international free agent scene. Do you *really* think he's going to pass up the opportunity?

 

[Rice Cube]

He might pass up the opportunity if Cespedes wants more money than he's worth. That's what a smart GM/baseball president would do.

 

[Captain Obvious]

He might pass up the opportunity if Cespedes wants more money than he's worth. That's what a smart GM/baseball president would do.

Agreed, but how much do you think he's worth? Over 6 years, I certainly think he's worth at least 50 million. I'd go up to 70ish million.

 

[Rice Cube]

Agreed, but how much do you think he's worth? Over 6 years, I certainly think he's worth at least 50 million. I'd go up to 70ish million.

Wouldn't go higher than $35MM. I'd be okay with $40MM. If he wants more he can be a Marlin.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Wouldn't go higher than $35MM. I'd be okay with $40MM. If he wants more he can be a Marlin.

You really only think he's going to be an 8 win player?

 

[Rice Cube]

You really only think he's going to be an 8 win player?

No, but I wouldn't pay him on the same scale as a regular free agent or even a guy in arbitration. I'd give him a contract that reflects that he needs to actually prove something before he makes real money, similar to what first-round draftees make when they sign. It'd be unwise, to say the least, to assume that Cespedes will be a 3-4 win player each season of his contract.

 

[Captain Obvious]

No, but I wouldn't pay him on the same scale as a regular free agent or even a guy in arbitration. I'd give him a contract that reflects that he needs to actually prove something before he makes real money, similar to what first-round draftees make when they sign. It'd be unwise, to say the least, to assume that Cespedes will be a 3-4 win player each season of his contract.

Fair enough, but some factors to keep in mind... he's the last big time IFA we can go nuts on. Theo & other teams know this. He's not a regular FA, or an arby guy or a draftee. He's an IFA. Let's look at the latest big IFA, Chapman. 6 years 30 million for a reliever. Cespedes' is an Adam Jonesish player with upside. AKA much better than a reliever. While 60 million may be too high, it's not like he wouldn't be worth it. I mean for him to be worth it, he'd have to be worth 12 wins, or 2 wins per year. That's a regular starter. His defense would likely be a little above average, he has an absolutely beautiful swing, odds are he'd manage to be worth at least a few runs with the bat. If we play him in CF, he gets the position boost too. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to be a 2 win player throughout the deal at all. Plus, he has upside so he could always outperform these predictions--that's all they are. All in all, I think 50ish million will be about right and it's not a bad signing. If Thoyer go a different direction, so be it, but it's not like he would be a terrible signing at that much.

 

[Jntg4]

Fair enough, but some factors to keep in mind... he's the last big time IFA we can go nuts on. Theo & other teams know this. He's not a regular FA, or an arby guy or a draftee. He's an IFA. Let's look at the latest big IFA, Chapman. 6 years 30 million for a reliever. Cespedes' is an Adam Jonesish player with upside. AKA much better than a reliever. While 60 million may be too high, it's not like he wouldn't be worth it. I mean for him to be worth it, he'd have to be worth 12 wins, or 2 wins per year. That's a regular starter. His defense would likely be a little above average, he has an absolutely beautiful swing, odds are he'd manage to be worth at least a few runs with the bat. If we play him in CF, he gets the position boost too. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to be a 2 win player throughout the deal at all. Plus, he has upside so he could always outperform these predictions--that's all they are. All in all, I think 50ish million will be about right and it's not a bad signing. If Thoyer go a different direction, so be it, but it's not like he would be a terrible signing at that much.

1st Bold: Who gives a fuck how his swing looks? He can swing with a bat that sticks out of his ass for all I care as long as he has some discipline and can put balls in play and drive them deep.

2nd Bold: Stop with the Thoyer shit.

 

[Rice Cube]

Cespedes isn't covered under the CBA because he's more than 23 years old. If the CBA were to force Theo/Jed's hands, they'd go after Soler, who is allegedly still 19.

Guys who are only worth 2 wins a year don't get multi-year contracts. With this kind of player you pay less and hope for more. This isn't like Pujols or Fielder where you know they will put up five wins for a while and pay them as such; this is a Cuban guy who isn't that young anymore who mashed in an inferior league who is now transitioning to MLB where they're better prepared and will make better adjustments.

That said, if they decided to go after him and spend that much money...well, it ain't my money, but they'd better be damned sure that it pans out as a good investment. This signing is scouting-heavy, and you simply don't know how the guy will do in MLB even with fancy spreadsheets. I'm sure the Cubs have their models and projections and stuff, but the unknown should temper what they would be willing to spend, or would be wise to spend.

 

[Captain Obvious]

1st Bold: Who gives a fuck how his swing looks? He can swing with a bat that sticks out of his ass for all I care as long as he has some discipline and can put balls in play and drive them deep.

2nd Bold: Stop with the Thoyer shit.

I give a fuck how his swing looks. If you notice some of the best hitters in the leagues(Pujols and Mauer come to mind) have the best mechanics. Flaws in the swing = holes that MLB pitchers can exploit. If you want balls in play and driven deep, mechanics are where it starts at. Not hard to figure that out.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Cespedes isn't covered under the CBA because he's more than 23 years old. If the CBA were to force Theo/Jed's hands, they'd go after Soler, who is allegedly still 19.

Guys who are only worth 2 wins a year don't get multi-year contracts. With this kind of player you pay less and hope for more. This isn't like Pujols or Fielder where you know they will put up five wins for a while and pay them as such; this is a Cuban guy who isn't that young anymore who mashed in an inferior league who is now transitioning to MLB where they're better prepared and will make better adjustments.

That said, if they decided to go after him and spend that much money...well, it ain't my money, but they'd better be damned sure that it pans out as a good investment. This signing is scouting-heavy, and you simply don't know how the guy will do in MLB even with fancy spreadsheets. I'm sure the Cubs have their models and projections and stuff, but the unknown should temper what they would be willing to spend, or would be wise to spend.

CBA doesn't apply to guys over 23? 2 wins is looking more like his floor, than his ceiling. 2 wins is going to get him 60. If we pay 60 and get anything extra, it's just a plus. I think that is certainly worth his upside. He may not be young, but that's kinda irrelevant. We're paying for his prime years, it's not like he is a prospect who hasn't been able to put it together. No we don't know what he'll do, but look at his swing. He's got a really really sweet swing and that is likely to translate to the MLB, at least more so than someone with a lesser swing. He's been scouted to have plus defense too. He's a very promising player and he's worth the risk, IMO.

 

[Jntg4]

I give a fuck how his swing looks. If you notice some of the best hitters in the leagues(Pujols and Mauer come to mind) have the best mechanics. Flaws in the swing = holes that MLB pitchers can exploit. If you want balls in play and driven deep, mechanics are where it starts at. Not hard to figure that out.

It doesn't fucking matter how someone's swing looks. All that matters is how well they can produce with it. This isn't a hard concept.

For someone all caught up in sabermetrics and not advocating the eye test on most occasions, you should know better than this.

 

[Captain Obvious]

It doesn't fucking matter how someone's swing looks. All that matters is how well they can produce with it. This isn't a hard concept.

For someone all caught up in sabermetrics and not advocating the eye test on most occasions, you should know better than this.

Are you fucking dense? I'm not saying it isn't about results. I'm saying that if we want results him having a gorgeous swing is going to help him. It does fucking matter how his swing looks when you're investing 50+ million dollars. You don't invest that kind of money into a Tyler Colvin type player who has a flawed swing that MLB pitchers know how to exploit. You can't exploit a flaw if there is no flaw, can you? That's part of why he is worth it. What's so hard to understand?

 

[Jntg4]

Are you fucking dense? I'm not saying it isn't about results. I'm saying that if we want results him having a gorgeous swing is going to help him. It does fucking matter how his swing looks when you're investing 50+ million dollars. You don't invest that kind of money into a Tyler Colvin type player who has a flawed swing that MLB pitchers know how to exploit. You can't exploit a flaw if there is no flaw, can you? That's part of why he is worth it. What's so hard to understand?

Missing Point Completely. #CaptainOblivious

 

[Captain Obvious]

Missing Point Completely. #CaptainOblivious

Not at all. You just don't know how to read. You said it's about production, which it is. But we don't have him yet. Should we sign every Cuban with a glove to a 60 million dollar contract? No. So how do we know? Skillset. If he has a great swing, odds are he is going to have success hitting at the MLB level. You have to find out who is going to produce before you invest a shitton of money in them to produce.