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Been some talk that the Cubs could move Darvish. If that's the case, time to rebuild... right?
CSF77
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I would call this unlikely. It makes sense as Yu can get a mega return. His remaining deal is 12 AAV less then his value right now. So this would bring back (2) top 100 players.
As much as Bouer is talked about he is sitting 30-35 AAV and Yu costs far less and the difference is minimal
But.
I see Jed not selling off his ace. I see the Cubs in a mini turn over not a overhaul. This time next year payrolls should expand and the Cubs could be in very solid shape. Tax reset where they can add a stud or 2.
The world of if it was me:
sell Bryant extend Baez and Rizzo. In July.
Promote Davis and Marquez.
Sit on that for the year.
Off-season push for Lindor. Go over cap and not worry about the push back.
Jed can cement himself this way to get out of Theo's shadow.
As much as Bouer is talked about he is sitting 30-35 AAV and Yu costs far less and the difference is minimal
But.
I see Jed not selling off his ace. I see the Cubs in a mini turn over not a overhaul. This time next year payrolls should expand and the Cubs could be in very solid shape. Tax reset where they can add a stud or 2.
The world of if it was me:
sell Bryant extend Baez and Rizzo. In July.
Promote Davis and Marquez.
Sit on that for the year.
Off-season push for Lindor. Go over cap and not worry about the push back.
Jed can cement himself this way to get out of Theo's shadow.
Grimace
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I'd like Lindor over Baez. I'd be fine with extending Rizzo 4-5 years max with team options for longer. I think Davis and Marquez definitely need more time in the minors. I don't really care either way with Yu, but it all depends on the return if traded and it's not a seller's market right now.
beckdawg
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Sounds like were there to be a trade it would likely center around CJ Abrams. Abrams is interesting because he's kind of raw but has some really interesting tools. If that is indeed the case, I think he's an interesting building block. With Davis you have a guy who can probably play CF but would be excellent in RF too. Abrams is probably going to end up in CF if he doesn't stick at SS. The cubs with Howard and a yet to sign but all but a lock to sign IFA Cristian Hernandez are well suited for middle infield depth.
I think you'd have to also get 2 interesting pitching prospects for the deal to make sense. One of the names being floated with Abrams is Adrian Morejon. Obviously I'd love to get Gore in a trade but sounds like he's out. Luis Patiño is probably also off the table. Morejon would probably be their next best piece and his k/9 rates make him an interesting gamble. He's your fairly typical high k rate bad walk rate type guy. Some of those guys figure their command out and become Max Scherzer and some end up struggling because of it. But, as a second piece in a trade i'd be willing to gamble a bit.
I think i'd also want someone like Cole Wilcox as a third piece and then whatever filler pieces make the rest of the deal work. Ideally, I'd like the cubs to find a power hitting 3B as well some where in all this trade talk. I actually like Abrams quite a bit were this trade to happen but they don't have a ton of obvious middle of the order power bats in the farm system right now and SD doesn't have any obvious choices there as well.
I think you'd have to also get 2 interesting pitching prospects for the deal to make sense. One of the names being floated with Abrams is Adrian Morejon. Obviously I'd love to get Gore in a trade but sounds like he's out. Luis Patiño is probably also off the table. Morejon would probably be their next best piece and his k/9 rates make him an interesting gamble. He's your fairly typical high k rate bad walk rate type guy. Some of those guys figure their command out and become Max Scherzer and some end up struggling because of it. But, as a second piece in a trade i'd be willing to gamble a bit.
I think i'd also want someone like Cole Wilcox as a third piece and then whatever filler pieces make the rest of the deal work. Ideally, I'd like the cubs to find a power hitting 3B as well some where in all this trade talk. I actually like Abrams quite a bit were this trade to happen but they don't have a ton of obvious middle of the order power bats in the farm system right now and SD doesn't have any obvious choices there as well.
CSF77
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I would target Gore myself. Take back Meyers to offset pay then send over Amaya. Cubs are blocked for him and the Padres have a few question marks at Catcher.
CJ was interesting but I would hold off on adding another MI.
Listening to the podcast by Boras kept going to Yelch as a comp. for Bryant. He never says things with out reason. That must be the target payday that he will accept. That in mind years/$215M (2020-28), plus 2029 option. That might be doable (front load and make the back end cheap) and they instead look to cut Javy and target Lindor for SS.
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CSF77
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That said Caratini is groomed and still with control. Darvish and him connect anyways. Sending a proven duo then promoting Amaya is another option and gives the Pads a proven starting catcher.
Some things to bounce around at least.
Some things to bounce around at least.
beckdawg
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Well not sure it matters now with Snell being traded but they aren't trading Gore. He's close enough to the majors that they don't get a bunch of value out of trading him when they can just slot him in the rotation this year or next.
CSF77
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If I am them I wouldn't either. That said if I'm Jed I am not trading a league ace unless I am getting a ace level prospect. That is the need for the Cubs. Not another SS.
The Cubs already have talent in SS in Howard. They have talent in Davis in CF. They have Nico at 2B who played up at 2B far better than expected.
The Cubs are not in a situation to firesale right now. Trading Darvish should be only for a ace in return. He is rated better than Q was and Q got 2 top 100 talent with out taking on a bad deal. So in value Darvish + Caritini for Meyers + Gore is a fair trade. If the Pad's want to pass that is fine. Then move on vs taking a lesser return.
CSF77
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I believe that the Cubs are accually in a really good place right now. Sure they have expiring deals and that really hides the good things going on.
They have a ace and a #2. They have a #4 in training this year and a #3 on the Cusp. Mills is a fine #5.
They have a CF on the Cusp. Their CF can move to left.
The the main 2 losses this year just need time to fix itself.
The potential losses:.
Rizzo. 1B is a easy replace. The leadership is not. You extend.
Bryant. It is Boras fear that drives this one. I will go against the grain and say if 9/215 inks it you do it. Bryant is a top 15 talent in baseball.
Baez. He has holes to his game. He could be upgraded or traded or resigned to a 20 AAV deal. With SS deep in 2022 and 3B weak it makes more sense to lock up Bryant and play the market at SS. Howard is pending and signing a lesser SS to bridge the gap could be a smart okay to get a payroll break.
Just my take. As much Hype Baez gives he is still a .330-.300 OBA player. Bryant is more .400-.360. then consider the 2022 market where SS is thick and 3B is weak. The investment makes sense in this viewpoint.
Just my take. The Cubs can do nothing and just let time fix their issues. Make smart investments and use F/A for minor adjustments vs splash moves.
They have a ace and a #2. They have a #4 in training this year and a #3 on the Cusp. Mills is a fine #5.
They have a CF on the Cusp. Their CF can move to left.
The the main 2 losses this year just need time to fix itself.
The potential losses:.
Rizzo. 1B is a easy replace. The leadership is not. You extend.
Bryant. It is Boras fear that drives this one. I will go against the grain and say if 9/215 inks it you do it. Bryant is a top 15 talent in baseball.
Baez. He has holes to his game. He could be upgraded or traded or resigned to a 20 AAV deal. With SS deep in 2022 and 3B weak it makes more sense to lock up Bryant and play the market at SS. Howard is pending and signing a lesser SS to bridge the gap could be a smart okay to get a payroll break.
Just my take. As much Hype Baez gives he is still a .330-.300 OBA player. Bryant is more .400-.360. then consider the 2022 market where SS is thick and 3B is weak. The investment makes sense in this viewpoint.
Just my take. The Cubs can do nothing and just let time fix their issues. Make smart investments and use F/A for minor adjustments vs splash moves.
beckdawg
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Snell trade actually brought back a pretty decent return. Patiño is a 60 grade on fangraphs. Hunt and Wilcox are both 45's. Mejía's star has fallen but he was a 50 and well regarded.
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beckdawg
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Sounds like this trade with SD isn't over.
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I would guess this is Caratini not Contreras given they just got Nola and Caratini catches Darvish
CSF77
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Like I said it would have to be Gore if Caritini is in play. He makes the most sense as Darvish has excelled working with him and he is now a top 1/3 framer.
There is nothing wrong with this trade as long as Gore is part of it.
With Snell added the Pads do not need to hold him now. They have a eliete core in Snell, Darvish, Lampert, Davies and Paddock.
Gore is effectively blocked. This could be a real scenerio.
There is nothing wrong with this trade as long as Gore is part of it.
With Snell added the Pads do not need to hold him now. They have a eliete core in Snell, Darvish, Lampert, Davies and Paddock.
Gore is effectively blocked. This could be a real scenerio.
CSF77
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Nola < Caritini
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If you're going to rebuild, do it. Trade him. I don't want to wait around and try to rebuild in 2-3 years.
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Sounds like Jake Cronenworth is going to be part of the deal just based on them grabbing Kim from korea to play at 2B. He's an interesting piece though I'm hoping he's more a third piece. I'm not sure what that means for Nico though. I'm guessing he moves to CF.
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If they are going to blow it up, then I hope they trade everyone...not just Yu
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Yu were good while it lasted.
