How Do the 2018 Bears Compare to Previous Playoff Teams?

[jive]

After analyzing the history of drafts under various GMs, I felt that the 2018 Bears went into the 2019 draft without any glaring holes compared to other playoff teams in the past. Many pundits in the media seem to agree too. So, I wanted to verify if that feeling had any basis in fact, so I compared the starting rosters of previous playoff teams. I did not list every playoff team, just the ones with different rosters. For example, I didn't include the 1991 team because the roster was similar to the 1990 team. I did not list a full back, but used a flex player instead since FBs are not used as commonly as in previous eras. I fit the 2018 defense as a 4-3, since that's what the Bears' defensive alignment has been for decades. Players in bold made the Pro Bowl that year, and those in italics are ones that performed below average for the season. Because it is for the season, you may see some marginal players without italics and good players with them. For example, Jim Harbaugh had a good career, but he sucked when he played for the Bears, so he shows up in italics. It depends on the year.

	​ 1990​	​ 1994​	​ 2001​	​ 2006​	​ 2010​	​ 2018​
QB	Jim Harbaugh	Steve Walsh	Jim Miller	Rex Grossman	Jay Cutler	Mitchell Trubisky
RB	Neal Anderson	Lewis Tillman	Anthony Thomas	Thomas Jones	Matt Forte	Jordan Howard
WR	Wendell Davis	Curtis Conway	Marty Booker	Bernard Berrian	Earl Bennett	Allen Robinson
WR	Ron Morris	Jeff Graham	Dez White	Muhsin Muhammad	Johnny Knox	Taylor Gabriel
TE	James Thornton	Marv Cook	Fred Baxter	Desmond Clark	Greg Olsen	Trey Burton
OT	Jimbo Covert	Andy Heck	Blake Brockermeyer	John Tait	Frank Omiyale	Charles Leno
OT	Keith Van Horne	James Williams	James Williams	Fred Miller	J'Marcus Webb	Bobbie Massie
G	Mark Bortz	Mark Bortz	Rex Tucker	Ruben Brown	Chris Williams	Kyle Long
G	Tom Thayer	Jay Leeuwenburg	Chris Villarial	Roberto Garza	Roberto Garza	James Daniels
C	Jay Hilgenberg	Jerry Fontenot	Olin Kreutz	Olin Kreutz	Olin Kreutz	Cody Whitehair
FLX	Brad Muster	Raymont Harris	Marcus Robinson	Devin Hester	Devin Hester	Tarik Cohen
DT	Dan Hampton	Chris Zorich	Ted Washington	Tommie Harris	Matt Toeaina	Akiem Hicks
DT	William Perry	Albert Fontenot	Keith Traylor	Tank Johnson	Anthony Adams	Eddie Goldman
DE	Richard Dent	Trace Armstrong	Phillip Daniels	Alex Brown	Julius Peppers	Roy Robertson Harris
DE	Trace Armstrong	Alonzo Spellman	Bryan Robinson	Adewale Ogunleye	Israel Idonije	Khalil Mack
MLB	Mike Singletary	Dante Jones	Brian Urlacher	Brian Urlacher	Brian Urlacher	Roquan Smith
OLB	Jim Morrissey	Vinson Smith	Roosevelt Colvin	Lance Briggs	Lance Briggs	Danny Trevathan
OLB	Ron Rivera	Joe Cain	Warrick Holdman	Hunter Hillenmeyer	Pisa Tinoisamoa	Leonard Floyd
CB	Donnell Woolford	Donnell Woolford	Walt Harris	Charles Tillman	Charles Tillman	Kyle Fuller
CB	Lemuel Stinson	Jeremy Lincoln	RW McQuarters	Nathan Vasher	Tim Jennings	Prince Amukamara
SS	Shaun Gayle	Shaun Gayle	Tony Parrish	Mike Brown	Danieal Manning	Adrian Amos
FS	Mark Carrier	Mark Carrier	Mike Brown	Danieal Manning	Chris Harris	Eddie Jackson

 

[Rory Sparrow]

The 1990 team had rebounded from a terrible 1989 and were still coaxing decent seasons out of the 1985 roster. I think if Harbaugh had been an elite QB, those early 90's squads might have been able to do more in the postseason. But it was a team on the way down, not on the way up.

The 1994 team made the playoffs because someone had to make the playoffs in the NFC. The strongest part of the team was the Conway-Graham WR duo, and the Bears didn't really utilize them to their fullest...20th in pass attempts, but 6th in rushing attempts with Lewis Tillman (3.3) and Raymont Harris (3.8)! OC Ron Turner at his finest!

2001 was strong up front on both sides of the ball. Really underrated OL. Big holes in other places. A sequence during the season had Shane Matthews completing passes to Marty Booker on 4 consecutive plays...this may not sound amazing, but I honestly can't find any instance in NFL history where a WR made catches on 4 straight plays. That said, Booker totaled 21 yards with these 4 catches...makes me want to "Shoop".

2006 different than 2018 because the defense already had the rep as being elite and the Bears had been in the postseason in 2005. I won't say the 2006 defense was better, but it was more 'proven' at that point. The 2006 offense wasn't as 'dynamic' as 2018, but the OL was better and the ball-control style meshed well with the team.

2010 is probably the best analogy to 2018. They got lucky in the playoff format back then gave them a bye, and then they got to face the 7-9 Seahawks to get to the NFC Championship. 2018 Bears had to play in the opening round despite 12-4, and they got defending champ Eagles with Nick Foles at QB. I think 2018 is overall a stronger team than 2010, if only for the fact that Trubisky is not Jay Cutler, which is good because that 2010 team greatly underachieved in the following seasons.

 

[Mdbearz]

Hard to use the Pro-Bowl as a measuring stick, because it is essentially a popularity contest, and too many players going as alternates.

The 2010 team was fortunate with the format, but they did earn the right to be there...

After 2005 the 2006 team really was a good team, but our offensive coordinator and head coach were outplayed, but I honestly feel like there will be some serious parallels to the 2018 to 2019 team. I would love for us to get another shot at the Superbowl, but with a much better coaching staff this time around.

 

[jive]

The 1990 team had rebounded from a terrible 1989 and were still coaxing decent seasons out of the 1985 roster. I think if Harbaugh had been an elite QB, those early 90's squads might have been able to do more in the postseason. But it was a team on the way down, not on the way up.

You can tell how good the Bears drafts were prior to Tobin by how the residual players still made the team competitive years later. That 1990 defense was solid in every position. I don't think Harbaugh had to be elite, he just needed to be average. Harbaugh sucked when he played for the Bears. Ron Morris and Wendell Davis weren't that good either. I don't know if it's the QB or vice versa, but the passing game as awful and we were a very one dimensional team then. Neal Anderson had as many TDs as Harbaugh, and ran for 350 yards less than what Harbaugh passed for.

The 1994 team made the playoffs because someone had to make the playoffs in the NFC. The strongest part of the team was the Conway-Graham WR duo, and the Bears didn't really utilize them to their fullest...20th in pass attempts, but 6th in rushing attempts with Lewis Tillman (3.3) and Raymont Harris (3.8)! OC Ron Turner at his finest!

This was actually an awful team. I don't get how they made it into the playoffs, but they won this homer some money that year. Anyway, there were tons of needs on this team on both sides of the ball. This was the result of poor drafts in previous years, and bad free agent signings by Wanny's regime. The O-line was actually pretty good, but there were below average players and/or players in decline everywhere. Bears went into the 95 draft with many needs and they were too many to fill in a draft, thus a downward spiral until 2001.

 

[jive]

One thing that is common with previous playoff teams is a lack of quality receivers. Hopefully this time around, we have enough talent and depth to put a bandage on that Achille's Heel.

 

[jive]

After 2005 the 2006 team really was a good team, but our offensive coordinator and head coach were outplayed, but I honestly feel like there will be some serious parallels to the 2018 to 2019 team. I would love for us to get another shot at the Superbowl, but with a much better coaching staff this time around.

Interestingly when I looked at these rosters, I found that the 2006 roster didn't have any glaring holes going into the following draft. Sure, we could have used upgrades in the passing game, but we didn't have anyone below average. Even Sexy Rexy was able to hold it together for most of the year, and Berrian and Muhammad were productive.

But one thing the 2018 team has that 2006 didn't is depth at offensive positions. I think the defense is just as good, and we'll see about the coaching staff.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

I don't think Harbaugh had to be elite, he just needed to be average. Harbaugh sucked when he played for the Bears. Ron Morris and Wendell Davis weren't that good either. I don't know if it's the QB or vice versa, but the passing game as awful and we were a very one dimensional team then. Neal Anderson had as many TDs as Harbaugh, and ran for 350 yards less than what Harbaugh passed for.

Harbaugh's Rate+ in his 4 years as starter was 108, 96, 100, 94. Not great, but not sucking. Probably would have been better off trying to develop Flutie, but I doubt those early 90's Bears teams knock off any of the NFC East teams with anything other than an elite QB.

 

[jive]

Harbaugh's Rate+ in his 4 years as starter was 108, 96, 100, 94. Not great, but not sucking. Probably would have been better off trying to develop Flutie, but I doubt those early 90's Bears teams knock off any of the NFC East teams with anything other than an elite QB.

I don't know where you're getting your numbers from, but I have ratings of 81.9, 73.7, 76.2, and 72.1 which I consider below average. He never threw for more than 15 TDs in a season for the Bears, and when he did get 15 TDs, he had 16 INTs. He had terrible yards per game, yards per completion, and TD to INT ratio. He would be average if it were the 1960s, but for the 90s, he was atrocious. If Bears era Harbaugh is average, then Kyle Orton would be elite.

 

[FirstTimer]

I don't know where you're getting your numbers from, but I have ratings of 81.9, 73.7, 76.2, and 72.1 which I consider below average. He never threw for more than 15 TDs in a season for the Bears, and when he did get 15 TDs, he had 16 INTs. He had terrible yards per game, yards per completion, and TD to INT ratio. He would be average if it were the 1960s, but for the 90s, he was atrocious. If Bears era Harbaugh is average, then Kyle Orton would be elite.

Rate+ isn't the same as raw passer rating. Go to PFR and read up on it. Distilled down: Rate+ is a normalized league average for passer rating based on a three year rolling average of qualified passers. 100 is set to league average. A Rate+ of 108 for Harbaugh in a given seasons means that basically his raw passer rating number of 81.9 was 8% better than the league average for that season. Think of Rate+ as kind of like OPS+ in baseball statistics. It's a good way to see how a 91.2 passer rating in 1987 was a hell of a lot more impressive than a 91.2 in 2007. Helps keep era in perspective. Also, to be clear...there's no subjective adjustment to the numbers in the formula. It's just compiling the data and normalizing the numbers.

Basically...you're evaluation of Harbaugh's passer rating raw numbers relative to his era..is...wrong. For instance, you lump in his 81.9 raw number as being "below average"...it was actually 9th best in the NFL in 1990. In 1997 his passer rating was 86.2...good enough for 8th best in the NFL. In today's terms those raw numbers would have placed him 29th and 27th respectively.

 

[FirstTimer]

Getting away from the statistical mumbo jumbo I like the OP. I made a comment earlier this year that the 2018 Bears reminded me of the 1991(or maybe it was the 1990 Bears) in that they were a good team but not ready to deal with the elites in the NFC in the playoffs. I think the table above does show though throughout everything the Bears biggest limiting factor in the last half dozen playoff runs has been the QB position. When and where it decides to jump up and bite the team has varied but it shows up at some point.

 

[Black Rainbow]

Anything less than a NFC Championship game for the '19 Bears will be a disappointment.

 

[fenderpfunk]

Ahh the days of Walt Harris.

 

[jive]

Rate+ isn't the same as raw passer rating. Go to PFR and read up on it. Distilled down: Rate+ is a normalized league average for passer rating based on a three year rolling average of qualified passers. 100 is set to league average. A Rate+ of 108 for Harbaugh in a given seasons means that basically his raw passer rating number of 81.9 was 8% better than the league average for that season. Think of Rate+ as kind of like OPS+ in baseball statistics. It's a good way to see how a 91.2 passer rating in 1987 was a hell of a lot more impressive than a 91.2 in 2007. Helps keep era in perspective. Also, to be clear...there's no subjective adjustment to the numbers in the formula. It's just compiling the data and normalizing the numbers.

Basically...you're evaluation of Harbaugh's passer rating raw numbers relative to his era..is...wrong. For instance, you lump in his 81.9 raw number as being "below average"...it was actually 9th best in the NFL in 1990. In 1997 his passer rating was 86.2...good enough for 8th best in the NFL. In today's terms those raw numbers would have placed him 29th and 27th respectively.

That's interesting about Rate+. You learn something new everyday.

However, stats aside, I still think Harbaugh's play sucked. I watched pretty much every single game he has played since his rookie year. He was far from NFL ready his rookie year, or even his second year. Even with a couple years on the bench, he still sucked. He had poor pocket presence , no ability to throw downfield, accuracy issues, and poor decision making. Even though he might have been in the top ten for QB rating, we were dead last in passing offense with Harbaugh.Even in his best year, he had stinkers and multi-interception games that cost us wins. I still remember the game where he audibled into a pick six and Ditka got in his face and chewed him out on the sideline. I thought toward the end of 91 he'd get better, but he returned to suckage.

Neal Anderson was an excellent receiver and Harbaugh's favorite target. Neal made some amazing catches on poorly thrown balls that made Harbaugh's paltry stats better. Neal Anderson was the heart and soul of that offense until his health declined. As he declined, so did our offense.Harbaugh didn't help.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

I think this season we will finally be in that tier 1 level of the NFC like the rams and saints were last season. I think this is the year Drew’s arm falls off down in NO since we saw signs of that last season and allows us and the rams to fight for that 1 seed.

 

[Porkchop]

Compared to 2010, 2018's defense was better in almost every regard. DL was superior, LB's were superior and secondary was superior. 2010 had some major defensive stars in Urlacher, Peppers, Briggs and Tillman. Difference is that 2018 had that as well with Mack, Hicks, Fuller and Jackson, but they also had a superior 5 to 11 on defense as well.

Offensively, I think the 2018 Bears were better at practically all spots minus RB and TE. Forte and Olsen were huge weapons, and guys that the Bears simply didn't have in 2018. However, the 2010 offensive line was arguably one of, if not, the worst unit I have ever had the displeasure of witnessing. They were truly a brutally incompetent group and got Cutler destroyed on many an occasion. 2018's group wasn't stellar by any stretch, but they were the fucking 90's Cowboys compared to the 2010 squad.

They lucked out in the playoff format, but they also wrote their own demise. They could have easily eliminated the Packers from the playoffs and prevented their eventual drive to a Super Bowl.

 

[FirstTimer]

That's interesting about Rate+. You learn something new everyday.

However, stats aside, I still think Harbaugh's play sucked. I watched pretty much every single game he has played since his rookie year. He was far from NFL ready his rookie year, or even his second year. Even with a couple years on the bench, he still sucked. He had poor pocket presence , no ability to throw downfield, accuracy issues, and poor decision making. Even though he might have been in the top ten for QB rating, we were dead last in passing offense with Harbaugh.Even in his best year, he had stinkers and multi-interception games that cost us wins. I still remember the game where he audibled into a pick six and Ditka got in his face and chewed him out on the sideline. I thought toward the end of 91 he'd get better, but he returned to suckage.

Neal Anderson was an excellent receiver and Harbaugh's favorite target. Neal made some amazing catches on poorly thrown balls that made Harbaugh's paltry stats better. Neal Anderson was the heart and soul of that offense until his health declined. As he declined, so did our offense.Harbaugh didn't help.

I think it's pretty clear from Harbaugh's later career that the issue may not have been Harbaugh but the Bears medieval offensive mindset. Harbaugh was an average QB in Chicago playing in a regressive out dated scheme. He was just "a guy". You're overstating his "suckage" imo.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

I think it's pretty clear from Harbaugh's later career that the issue may not have been Harbaugh but the Bears medieval offensive mindset. Harbaugh was an average QB in Chicago playing in a regressive out dated scheme. He was just "a guy". You're overstating his "suckage" imo.

Harbaugh posted a higher Rate+ (108) with Wendell Davis/Ron Morris/Cap Boso than Jay Cutler (103) with Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery/Martellus Bennett. WOW!

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Compared to 2010, 2018's defense was better in almost every regard. DL was superior, LB's were superior and secondary was superior. 2010 had some major defensive stars in Urlacher, Peppers, Briggs and Tillman. Difference is that 2018 had that as well with Mack, Hicks, Fuller and Jackson, but they also had a superior 5 to 11 on defense as well.

Not sure. Urlacher is a HOFer, Peppers will be a HOFer, and Tillman is probably the best CB in franchise history. Mack is incredible for sure, but Hicks is no Peppers, Fuller is no Tillman, Floyd is no Briggs. Not saying that 2010 D is better than 2018 D, but I don't think 2018 is superior in all aspects.

 

[Penny Traitor]

They lucked out in the playoff format, but they also wrote their own demise. They could have easily eliminated the Packers from the playoffs and prevented their eventual drive to a Super Bowl

A lot of that luck had to do with letting the Packers into the playoffs. They took out the Eagles early to set up the unlikely match-up with Seattle and then beat the Falcons at home so the Bears never had to.

All the Bears had to do to get back to the Super Bowl was beat a team they see twice a year on their home field.

 

[Porkchop]

Not sure. Urlacher is a HOFer, Peppers will be a HOFer, and Tillman is probably the best CB in franchise history. Mack is incredible for sure, but Hicks is no Peppers, Fuller is no Tillman, Floyd is no Briggs. Not saying that 2010 D is better than 2018 D, but I don't think 2018 is superior in all aspects.

This is referring specifically to the 2018 season, so overall careers are not a factor.

Mack would be the comparison to Peppers, not Hicks, and I'd take 2018 Mack over 2010 Peppers in a millisecond. His numbers were superior despite playing less games than Peppers.

Tillman v. Fuller is IMO a toss up referring to those particular years. Tillman had more tackles and forced fumbles, Fuller had more picks and passes defended.

Floyd wouldn't be compared to Briggs. Briggs and Urlacher would be pitted against Smith and Trevathan. Rose-colored glasses off, those two groups were very comparable in those respective years. Despite being a rook, Smith was an absolute monster last season leading the team in tackles and Trevathan was right behind him. Again, this is just those years and this isn't prime Urlacher. He was 32 and while far from washed up wasn't 2005-06 form that we were accustomed to seeing.

But again, the key difference is 5 through 11 on 2018's squad.

This essentially comes down to:

2010: Harris, Idonije, Jennings, Manning, Tinoisamoa, Toeaina and Adams
vs.
2018: Goldman, Smith, Trevathan, Nichols, Floyd, Amos and Prince

Personally, I'm taking 2018 and not looking back on that one. Not to mention, 2018 had superior depth as well.