is butler going to get an extension?

[czman]

If he's able to get himself to the FT line maybe 8-9 times a game at around 85%, would that offset shooting 3s at like 33% in your mind?

I care less about how many times, he just needs to shoot ~80%. If he gets to the line 8-9 times a game he will probably be limping into the playoffs.

Against the Timberwolves he twice had the ball on fast breaks and did not make the pass. One time he took a bad fall on the foul. He got the FTs, but the smart play is just to dump it off to Gasol and not take that spill. I know people really like the way he played. It made me cringe. He did not take the open jump shots. He did not show any ability to pass off penetration. He put himself in some bad spots where he could easily get injured because he did not make the smart basketball pass.

Butler does not need to be a "super star". He needs to be smart and effective. That is why I am kind of down on him. He seems to be working on things that are less important to the team and the areas that the Bulls need him to get better at are in regression. Shooting should be his number priority and he seems to be more worried about crashing the boards and trying to jump over people and get to the line.

If Butler shoots 33% from 3 this season he should not be the starter/finisher next season. You are never going to win with Noah/Butler on the floor against disciplined defensive teams in the playoffs. Not a championship at least.

 

[Papa Wheelie]

fair point about Faried but Taj would still get more than hes making right now

you say you mentioned new market but are refusing to adapt

Jimmy turned down 11m so his agent thinks he can get more and this guy is supposed to be in the know

I'm not refusing to adapt though. I actually agree with your point about the new market, and think we'll see more and more of this. That doesn't mean teams will automatically pay more money, however. Welcome to negotiating.

I've been in Business for many years and have negotiated some large deals. I just don't think the Bulls would pay Taj what Noah is getting if Taj was needing a new deal right now. Period. His position is the strength of the Bulls. Imo, if the Bulls didn't view Taj similarly to Jimmy, I could see them wanting to slot Taj just below Jimmy.

When you look at Faried getting $12.5 now, I'd bet the Bulls would start at approx $10ish for Taj and maybe go to $11. However, Taj, like Jimmy, will have a pretty good opportunity to earn more when his contract is up by playing great ball.

 

[Papa Wheelie]

I don't think ppg is as important for someone like Butler as his efficiency. 3 pointers, FTs, low TOs. He is just lacking in the 3 point shooting, but that is probably the most important piece.

I still disagree with this mentality. Jimmy, to me, looks like he's making an effort to not shoot 3's. I think that's part of his new game. It doesn't mean that he can't hit some 3's when he's hot, but he's clearly trying to slash and post more this year.

I've seen him go to shoot the 3 and then hold off. Shooting 3's is just not his strength. I don't think we'll see him try to live off it anymore. He's using his strength to drive to the rim and hit medium range jumpers instead. He can post up a lot of G's as well and has added some post moves this year.

 

[Papa Wheelie]

Rose/Jimmy have only played 300 minutes together

Maybe this is a reason why people don't get more excited about our starting backcourt? If Jimmy holds his current game and Rose stays healthy, we really could be looking at the best backcourt in the NBA imo. Their defense puts them over the top, but if they're both scoring as well, we're in for a good ride imo.

 

[Diddy1122]

Here is what I am talling you. The league does not value defense wings who cannot shot the 3. The league does not value guys who cannot stay healthy.

Since Tibs has taken over the Bulls every FA 1/2/3 that played for the Bulls has taken less money than people here thought when they left. People thought DJ and Nate would get paid and guess what they didn't. Deng thought he would get 3-4 years at 12-14 and he got 2 at 10 per.

With DJ & Nate, you are talking about two 1-dimensional players who are undersized for their respective positions. I can't speak for others but I never believed DJ or Nate would get a full midlevel contract. There's a reason those guys bounced around. They are journeymen. Deng was a victim of penny pinching last season and his poor play in Cleveland hurt his case. If he had stayed with the Bulls, it's possible he could've gotten a $12m per deal. He was averaging nearly 20ppg & shooting his best percentage since the 2011 ECF season. He still got $10m per going into his 10th season, with a lot of minutes on his body, which doesn't do much to help your argument.

Most teams want 1 defensive stopper and 3-5 guys on the perimeter who can score and shoot. If Butler shoots ~28% from 3 he is not going to get paid. Yeah if he shoots ~37% from 3 he is going to get 12 million. If he shoots 40%+ from 3 he could get a max deal.

Not sure if you remember, but I was the biggest Butler supporter when he shot ~48% from 3 for those 3 months. I thought he had turned the corner and was going to be a ~40% shooter from 3. If he can hit the open 3 with consistency, he deserves to get paid by the Bulls. If he can't he needs to go to the bench. It is going to all but impossible to beat good teams in the playoffs with Butler and Noah out there if neither can hit open shots.

He shot 38% from 3 his 2nd year in the league. He is capable of doing it again. Your basic argument here is that if he can't hit 3's at a high rate, he's worthless and should be benched? And I'm the one who has no clue and doesn't watch much basketball? :smh: A game changing defender like Butler is not a bench player, on any team. But he's much more than that which I feel you don't give him credit for. With the way he played in pre-season and his debut the other night, if he gets back to that 38%, he will likely be in the 18-20ppg range, which will easily get him paid by any team.

As for his game against the Timberwolves.....that is not sustainable. 15 ft is ridiculous. He also was 2 for 5 on shoots outside the paint. I know every wants to crown Butler the next big thing because he played well against a bad defensive team with no shot blocking. The regular season is just for grins. The Bulls are a playoff team every year now. Butler was the primary reason the Bulls lost in the playoffs. He would not shoot open jumpers frequently enough and the Wizards were able to play 5 on 3 because they did not respect Noah or Butler shooting the ball. That is exactly what will happen in the playoffs this season if he cannot shoot and hit open jumpers. The playoffs are the last thing people see before they give out contracts.

The bold is 110% false. He was not the primary reason. Did you think that Bulls team last year had a chance against the Wizards in that series? I know I didn't. They were too young, too quick, and too athletic for our banged up team that limped into the playoffs with a sorry excuse for a bench outside of 1 good player. How about the beloved DJ Augustin shooting less than 30% from the field? Or Boozer regressing into a pile of hot garbage? Or Noah being eaten alive by Nene inside? There's lots of reasons why the Bulls lost that series with the main one being they simply weren't as good as the Wizards

As for the Wolves game itself, everyone has been screaming for years that the team needs a 2-guard who can create his own shot and get to the line. There was no clearer a display of that than Saturday night. To top it off, he stepped cooly to the line and drilled 2 game winning FT's in a hostile environment. Since preseason, Jimmy has been making big plays, on defense and offense. His confidence is growing, and it shows. With how hard of a worker he is, I have no reason to believe he won't continue to improve all facets of his game.

 

[Diddy1122]

You have no clue what you are talking about.

per 36 minutes ppg/reb/ast
Tony Allen: 13.8/5.3/2.3 all-defense 1st team twice 2nd team once
Jimmy Butler: 12.1/5/2.2 all defense 2nd team once

Shooting: fg/3p/ft
Tony Allen: 48/26/73
Jimmy Butler: 43/31/78

Tony Allen is older, but being young does not mean you will get better. There career numbers are very similar. Tony Allen rates out very favorably to Butler in advanced defensive metrics.

My guess is you don't watch much basketball. Do you remember Tony Allen giving the best scorer in basketball fits?

Oh brother not another metrics guy. Butler is taller, longer, stronger, faster, more athletic, a better passer, can handle the ball, draws more defensive attention, more fouls... do I need to keep going?

For someone claiming that I don't watch much basketball, I don't know how you can compare Butler's game at this point to Tony Allen's. And yes he is younger which doesn't automatically guarantee he will improve, but it sure as HELL gives him a better chance of it. Jimmy Butler simply is not a mid-level guy right now. He's worth more. Tony Allen, a 32 year old semi-regular starter who's shown no significant improvement in years IS a mid-level guy. If you had said Jimmy is in the $7-9m range, that I could understand more, but $4-6m is just ridiculous. Most young players who've just shown flashes of being a consistent game changer in some aspect of the game get more than the mid-level exception. Jimmy's already made an All-Defensive Team while still on his rookie contract. Taj hasn't even made one yet and he's making $8m this season.

And yes I remember Tony Allen guarding LeBron. Do you remember Jimmy harassing him into a 17pt 8-23 performance in a Bulls OT win back in March?

 

[Raskolnikov]

Well, I think the Bulls made a big mistake here. They don't have the flexibility to let a player hit Restricted free agency. Surely several teams covet Jimmy, which is a problem. They should have paid him 12 if he wanted 12. It might seem impossible, but nothing is going to get easier for the Bulls and if there is one player that is core to me beside Rose it is Jimmy. Noah is pretty core for his attitude, but if I had to choose he is third to me.

After that its all considerably less important, though we have hopeful talent like McBuckets and Mirotic we would be reluctant to part with, and we have veterans like Gasol, Gibson, and Dunleavy who we love for different reasons. I'm starting to hope we don't trade Dunleavy and just see what Thibs can do with continuity.

Dunleavy is likely a better player than we receive in return for him, and anything we need on the roster we have a form of on the bench that knows the defense. Trading Dunleavy for a future 1 is a possibility, but we will be lucky to receive that and reluctant to let him go for less when we have a stockpile of 2's already.

 

[The Hawk]

Maybe this is a reason why people don't get more excited about our starting backcourt? If Jimmy holds his current game and Rose stays healthy, we really could be looking at the best backcourt in the NBA imo. Their defense puts them over the top, but if they're both scoring as well, we're in for a good ride imo.

That is pretty ridiculous. "Best backcourt in the NBA"? Butler is a SF trying to play SG. They need a good shooting guard. BTW......Martin lit them up with everyone on the team guarding him

 

[czman]

He shot 38% from 3 his 2nd year in the league. He is capable of doing it again. Your basic argument here is that if he can't hit 3's at a high rate, he's worthless and should be benched? And I'm the one who has no clue and doesn't watch much basketball? :smh: A game changing defender like Butler is not a bench player, on any team. But he's much more than that which I feel you don't give him credit for. With the way he played in pre-season and his debut the other night, if he gets back to that 38%, he will likely be in the 18-20ppg range, which will easily get him paid by any team.

He shot 42% in March and 56) in April. Outside of those 25 games he has been ~30 3 point shooter. I honestly thought he turned the corner at the end of the 12-13 season. Last showed that those 25 games were an anomaly and he is a ~30 shooter from 3.

If you think he can shoot at ~38% that is fine. I want him to show it, and not for a month and a half. It seems to me that we are disagreeing on his skill set. Do you really think he will get 12 million a season if h shots ~30% from 3 again this season. I agree if he shoots ~38% from 3 he is going to get paid and should. If shoots ~30% he is not going to get the money people are talking and if a team offers that to him, the Bulls should sign and trade him and take the exception.

 

[czman]

With DJ & Nate, you are talking about two 1-dimensional players who are undersized for their respective positions. I can't speak for others but I never believed DJ or Nate would get a full midlevel contract. There's a reason those guys bounced around. They are journeymen. Deng was a victim of penny pinching last season and his poor play in Cleveland hurt his case. If he had stayed with the Bulls, it's possible he could've gotten a $12m per deal. He was averaging nearly 20ppg & shooting his best percentage since the 2011 ECF season. He still got $10m per going into his 10th season, with a lot of minutes on his body, which doesn't do much to help your argument.

We can look at Marco, Watson, Brewer, Hamilton, Teague, Radmanovic, Korver. In fact I cannot think of one perimeter oriented player outside of Rose that has increased his value significantly since Tibs has been here.

 

[czman]

After reading the replies it seems that everyone thinks Butler is going to shoot a higher % from 3, be a more consistent score, stay healthier, and be a better facilitator then he was last season.

Last season he shot 40% from the field, 28% from 3 and missed 16 games. If he misses ~2 weeks shoots under 30% from 3 and under 44% from the field will he still be worth 12 million a season? I just want to understand what people think he has to do to get 12 million a season. I have a hard time understanding what people think he will do. My guess is 44/31/78 (fg/3p/ft) and 13/4/2 (ppg/reb/ast) with 2 steals and 1 block a game.

 

[clonetrooper264]

After reading the replies it seems that everyone thinks Butler is going to shoot a higher % from 3, be a more consistent score, stay healthier, and be a better facilitator then he was last season.

Last season he shot 40% from the field, 28% from 3 and missed 16 games. If he misses ~2 weeks shoots under 30% from 3 and under 44% from the field will he still be worth 12 million a season? I just want to understand what people think he has to do to get 12 million a season. I have a hard time understanding what people think he will do. My guess is 44/31/78 (fg/3p/ft) and 13/4/2 (ppg/reb/ast) with 2 steals and 1 block a game.

FWIW, what I think he needs to do to earn 12M is 45/33/80 for percentages and 16+/6/2/2/1 for stats. Do I think he will do that? Not necessarily, but I do believe he is capable.

 

[RoseMVP1]

I hope Jimmy continues to play with a chip on his shoulder so he can prove his doubters wrong. He was homeless and wasn't supposed to amount to anything, became a d1 athlete, was only considered to be a borderline NBA player, and now he's on the verge of a huge contract. He's been proving people wrong his whole life. Bulls are going to wish they gave him the 12-14 he wanted.

 

[Diddy1122]

I hope Jimmy continues to play with a chip on his shoulder so he can prove his doubters wrong. He was homeless and wasn't supposed to amount to anything, became a d1 athlete, was only considered to be a borderline NBA player, and now he's on the verge of a huge contract. He's been proving people wrong his whole life. Bulls are going to wish they gave him the 12-14 he wanted.

^^^ This is why I've always supported this kid and truly believe he's on the verge of breaking through. He's been counted out his whole life and has risen to every occasion with hard work, determination and humility. After being taken with the last pick in the 1st round of the 2011 draft, he came to the team a quietly reserved country guy. Now he's a team leader, considered by his teammates to be the toughest guy on the team, and the best player since camp (in Thibs words btw). He's shown an abundance of confidence in himself and his game. It feels like the real Jimmy is finally emerging.

We should be in for a fun season!

 

[Diddy1122]

After reading the replies it seems that everyone thinks Butler is going to shoot a higher % from 3, be a more consistent score, stay healthier, and be a better facilitator then he was last season.

Last season he shot 40% from the field, 28% from 3 and missed 16 games. If he misses ~2 weeks shoots under 30% from 3 and under 44% from the field will he still be worth 12 million a season? I just want to understand what people think he has to do to get 12 million a season. I have a hard time understanding what people think he will do. My guess is 44/31/78 (fg/3p/ft) and 13/4/2 (ppg/reb/ast) with 2 steals and 1 block a game.

It's all about what the market will be after the increase in salary cap, which is expected to rise significantly. A contract last off season for someone like Jimmy may not have come close to $12m. I'd say it'd be more like Taj's $8m. But with more teams being able to spend more, Butler's value will likely increase over that number.

However, regardless of the salary cap, Butler already made an All-NBA Defensive team while still on his rookie contract. That's pretty rare in the NBA, and even more rare for a player taken as the last pick in the 1st round. That alone puts him right at the $8m mark regardless of if his offense improves dramatically this year or not. If he makes another All-NBA Defensive team again this year (something I think is an absolute certainty) there is no way he is receiving less than $8-9m per. If he produces the shooting numbers you proposed but is 17/6/3 (ppg/reb/ast), I think he will get $12m per. I also think that he will get close to, if not better than those numbers this season.

We can look at Marco, Watson, Brewer, Hamilton, Teague, Radmanovic, Korver. In fact I cannot think of one perimeter oriented player outside of Rose that has increased his value significantly since Tibs has been here.

Marco certainly increased his value. He just played an important role on the NBA Champion Spurs. Watson played big minutes in a tough ECF series against the Heat last season with Indiana. Brewer had been fighting injuries his last season with the team, which unfortunately robbed him of most of his athleticism. Hamilton was already on his way out in the league and was brought in to simply come off screens and knock down open jumpers. Teague was a gamble from the get-go as a draft pick and was a victim of the luxury tax. Radmanovic, I mean seriously, he was nothing more than a warm body for practice.

You named one player who Thibs increased his value significantly in your own post. Kyle Korver. After two seasons under Thibs, Korver turned into a game changer with his shooting, and a capable defender despite his limited athletic ability. I never wanted him to be traded, and especially not for a trade exception that was never used. When teams played the Bulls there were 2 names right at the top of the chalk board, Derrick Rose and Kyle Korver. If anything, Korver is undervalued in his current contract. The amount of defensive attention he draws on any given play is almost invaluable.

 

[ursamajor]

After reading the replies it seems that everyone thinks Butler is going to shoot a higher % from 3, be a more consistent score, stay healthier, and be a better facilitator then he was last season.

Last season he shot 40% from the field, 28% from 3 and missed 16 games. If he misses ~2 weeks shoots under 30% from 3 and under 44% from the field will he still be worth 12 million a season? I just want to understand what people think he has to do to get 12 million a season. I have a hard time understanding what people think he will do. My guess is 44/31/78 (fg/3p/ft) and 13/4/2 (ppg/reb/ast) with 2 steals and 1 block a game.

He will average no less than 16 points a game. I think 18 is where he ends up.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

 

[Papa Wheelie]

That is pretty ridiculous. "Best backcourt in the NBA"? Butler is a SF trying to play SG. They need a good shooting guard. BTW......Martin lit them up with everyone on the team guarding him

Not before getting a hefty fine for a premature celebration, only to lose the game. We'll see when we see Jimmy and Derrick play together for a while, Right? That was the point, right?

 

[ursamajor]

21 points on 15 shots, 9 boards, 1 steal, 2 blocked shots.

The Bulls should have given him the 12 mil

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

 

[The Hawk]

Not before getting a hefty fine for a premature celebration, only to lose the game. We'll see when we see Jimmy and Derrick play together for a while, Right? That was the point, right?

I hope you are correct. I really do. I just do not see the two as the best back court in the NBA considering you have one guy playing out of position.

 

[clonetrooper264]

I hope you are correct. I really do. I just do not see the two as the best back court in the NBA considering you have one guy playing out of position.

I don't see them as the best because of Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry.

This whole "Butler is not a guard" thing is old...he can play SG and SF. Not out of position.