MLB draft(June 3-5)

[beckdawg]

So, I'm gonna have a bunch more to say on this but wanted to get something posted before the draft actually started. To quickly summarize, the current belief is the draft has like a top tier of 6 guys. Overall it's viewed a little bit weaker than an average draft in particular because of the lack of pitching. It's really pretty bleak at the top of the draft for pitching.

As for what the cubs may do, it's usually pretty hard to have any confidence as late as they pick but it seems like this year the rumors are even more difficult to follow because after those top 6 guys it seems more team oriented as to which teams like which players and the boards of two teams may vary wildly. Having said that, expect the cubs to draft really heavily in position players in the first 10 rounds. In particular I suspect they will draft a bunch of college hitting. The down side is that they may not have high ceilings but my best guess as to what happens is they use their very limited draft pool to spend big on like 2-3 guys and then use the other 7-8 picks mostly on college players they get to sign under their respective slots. So, what that may look like is potentially something similar to last year where they went pretty heavily over slot on Brennen Davis and Roederer and then most of the rest of the top 10 rounds was just college guys under slot. I could definitely see them doing something like this where they take 2 or so high school hitters they think have upside and then use the other picks on college bats to fill their barren A+ and AA rosters with some hitting.

Simply put, don't be surprised if there's not a bunch of interesting guys. Cubs have been one of the better teams developing hitters so even if guys look pretty meh, cubs have turn them into guys like Bote and Giambrone. I've also read that some believe high school hitters these days are slightly more likely to sign than they used to be which would benefit the cubs.

Anyways I plan to watch the draft live and I'll keep things updated with any info I can find.

 

[TL1961]

I won't pretend to know much about most guys getting drafted, but I did see that Bobby Witt Jr is considered the best SS prospect since ARod, and with him going #2 tonight, he and his dad become the highest drafted Father-Son duo ever.

 

[beckdawg]

I won't pretend to know much about most guys getting drafted, but I did see that Bobby Witt Jr is considered the best SS prospect since ARod, and with him going #2 tonight, he and his dad become the highest drafted Father-Son duo ever.

I'm not sure he's consensus consider that good. I mean people think he's good but people don't think he's particularly better than any normal top 5 type prospect. Rutschman is being viewed as more the generational type player at C.

 

[beckdawg]

Rumors leading up to the pick are the cubs are probably taking Kody Hoese if he's there. He's not been taking yet but people aren't sure he falls to the cubs.

 

[beckdawg]

Rumors leading up to the pick are the cubs are probably taking Kody Hoese if he's there. He's not been taking yet but people aren't sure he falls to the cubs.

And the dodgers just took him 2 picks before the cubs lol

 

[TL1961]

Who do you want the Cubs to take here, Beck?

 

[TL1961]

I read that the Cubs have a low pool total, but I hope they don't overdraft here to save $.

I wouldn't mind Malone. Get some pitching.

 

[beckdawg]

Ryan Jensen | Rank: 99
School: Fresno StateYear: JuniorPosition: RHPAge: 21 DOB: 11/23/1997Bats: R Throws: RHeight: 6'0" Weight: 180 lb.Previously drafted: Never
WATCH

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45
Fresno State has had its fair share of high profile draftees, most recently first rounders Taylor Ward in 2015 and, of course, Aaron Judge in 2013. The Bulldogs haven't had a pitcher go in the top five rounds in over a decade, with Tanner Scheppers and Justin Wilson both going that high in 2008. Both were starters in college and made it to the big leagues as relievers, a path Jensen could very well take after pitching well as Frenso State's Friday night starter this spring.
Jensen has arm strength to spare, with a fastball that sits from 94-98 mph. He's able to maintain his velocity deep into his starts, showing plenty of 97-98 mph heaters in the seventh and eighth inning of his starts. When he finds his arm slot, it can have plus life, but he often loses it, causing it to be flat and very hittable. His slider will show flashes of being an above-average pitch, but it's not consistent. He does have an upper-80s changeup with some fade that might be average, but he doesn't use it much. Jensen has a tendency to over stride at times, which makes it tougher for him to repeat his delivery and command the baseball.
With some effort to his delivery and an undersized frame, many see Jensen moving to the bullpen, with his power stuff playing up and allowing him to move more quickly. There is some feel for pitching here, so a team could send him out as a starter and see how it looks at the outset of his career.

 

[beckdawg]

Seems like someone they may be saving a little money on. BA have him at 109

 

[TL1961]

How are we always out of money?

A 6'0" pitcher ranked two rounds lower than we drafted him?

The Cardinals are given an extra pick every year before our second pick, and we have to compete taking guys three rounds too high for financial reasons?

That's not going to sustain a farm system.

 

[beckdawg]

How are we always out of money?

A 6'0" pitcher ranked two rounds lower than we drafted him?

The Cardinals are given an extra pick every year before our second pick, and we have to compete taking guys three rounds too high for financial reasons?

That's not going to sustain a farm system.

Well the cubs draft late and don't get free compensation picks like the cards do. That's how. I wouldn't be *that* disappointed by the guy. He fits the mold of where pitching development is going. Also keep in mind that the difference in value between like 20 and 90 isn't as much as the difference between 5 and 20. The talent pool falls off and becomes fairly similar.

I mean the cubs may just love the guy. I doubt they are solely doing this to save money but if you love a guy and you can save some money for later that's kind of useful. Plus this draft is really shitting for pitching at the top of the draft and college arms are hard to get later.

 

[zack54attack]

Keith Law had him at No. 32. Baseball America had him No. 109.

 

[TL1961]

Well the cubs draft late and don't get free compensation picks like the cards do. That's how. I wouldn't be *that* disappointed by the guy. He fits the mold of where pitching development is going. Also keep in mind that the difference in value between like 20 and 90 isn't as much as the difference between 5 and 20. The talent pool falls off and becomes fairly similar.

I mean the cubs may just love the guy. I doubt they are solely doing this to save money but if you love a guy and you can save some money for later that's kind of useful. Plus this draft is really shitting for pitching at the top of the draft and college arms are hard to get later.

Why do we have less money to spend because we draft later?

 

[TL1961]

Well the cubs draft late and don't get free compensation picks like the cards do. That's how. I wouldn't be *that* disappointed by the guy. He fits the mold of where pitching development is going. Also keep in mind that the difference in value between like 20 and 90 isn't as much as the difference between 5 and 20. The talent pool falls off and becomes fairly similar.

I mean the cubs may just love the guy. I doubt they are solely doing this to save money but if you love a guy and you can save some money for later that's kind of useful. Plus this draft is really shitting for pitching at the top of the draft and college arms are hard to get later.

Well, I see one projection that they will use the money on a HS position player. But that's no shock. I mean, if you draft to save money, it's to use it later.

I hope he is closer to Keith Law's projection than the other two mentioned.

I am not trying to dog on a guy specifically. More unhappy that we always seem to be in a bind on draft money and international money. I get it if you spend a lot one year and it hurts the next - isn't that the case with international money?

But we haven't used that much in a long while, have we?

 

[beckdawg]

Why do we have less money to spend because we draft later?

The way the draft works is you get money for each pick you have. I could link you to the exact values but the way it works effectively is each pick goes down in value. So, if you have the #1 pick you get $8,415,300 for just that pick. But if you have the #27 pick like the cubs do you get $2,570,100. This means teams at the top of the draft can have more wiggle room with their picks because if they can for example sign the #1 pick for $6 mil that means they have an extra $2 mil they can spend on their 2nd or 3rd or whatever pick. The other issue as i mentioned is that smaller market teams get additional picks after the first round. The cubs don't get that so... ya

 

[TL1961]

I see that AZ has two competitive balance picks and the Cards zero. Did Stl trade one in the Goldschmidt deal?

AZ has two comp picks after Rd 1, then two comp balance picks. They literally pick 6 times before Round 3.

 

[TL1961]

The way the draft works is you get money for each pick you have. I could link you to the exact values but the way it works effectively is each pick goes down in value. So, if you have the #1 pick you get $8,415,300 for just that pick. But if you have the #27 pick like the cubs do you get $2,570,100. This means teams at the top of the draft can have more wiggle room with their picks because if they can for example sign the #1 pick for $6 mil that means they have an extra $2 mil they can spend on their 2nd or 3rd or whatever pick. The other issue as i mentioned is that smaller market teams get additional picks after the first round. The cubs don't get that so... ya

That is what I figured. But if the reasoning is that you get less to spend on #27 than on #1, it is also because #27 should cost you less.

That would seem to indicate (in a perfect world) everyone would draft players where their talent dictates.

Why can't we afford the 27th ranked guy at 27? (as an example - not suggesting they must draft according to some analyst's exact ratings)

 

[beckdawg]

I see that AZ has two competitive balance picks and the Cards zero. Did Stl trade one in the Goldschmidt deal?

AZ has two comp picks after Rd 1, then two comp balance picks. They literally pick 6 times before Round 3.

I believe they did yeah.

 

[TL1961]

So, to sum it up in admittedly oversimplistic terms - the better you are, the lower you draft, and the less you have to spend - a somewhat double whammy on trying to keep teams competitive, and then, on top of that, MLB hands out free picks to teams not based on record, but on population within city limits, implying top drawing teams like StLouis are at a competitive disadvantage without extra picks!

I have hated that stupid system for years!

 

[beckdawg]

So, to sum it up in admittedly oversimplistic terms - the better you are, the lower you draft, and the less you have to spend - a somewhat double whammy on trying to keep teams competitive, and then, on top of that, MLB hands out free picks to teams not based on record, but on population within city limits, implying top drawing teams like StLouis are at a competitive disadvantage without extra picks!

I have hated that stupid system for years!

I wouldn't sweat it that much. Thing to remember about the MLB draft is after the first 10 or so picks the talent is much flatter than say the NFL draft. There's gonna be guys in the 2nd round who are better than top 20 picks. Additionally the thing to remember is that not every team values the same types of players. That's kind of why draft rankings are weird. Houston in particular has changed the way teams drafted with their way of selecting pitchers. Had you looked at some of their guys a few years ago they likely would have been ranked different than things turned out.

Either way, the end of the day the cubs took a starter who hit 98. The main reason he's low is some think he ends up a reliever but then... I mean is that the worst thing in the world for the cubs right now?

Also Passan is reporting the cubs almost took Matthew Allan who would have been more in line with typical views but worried about sign ability. It's possible they took Jansen here with the idea of taking Allen in the second round. That sort of stuff happens time to time. Draft is kind of hard to view pick by pick. You sort of have to look at it after the draft to see who signs and where they potentially saved money for better players.