What Would You Think is a Fair Trade for Chris Sale?

[brett05]

Chris would give the Cubs everything they want in a TOR. The White Sox should pull in an amazing haul for him. Granted, I would want Bryant, Soler, Russell and some specs and you guys want to trade us AA and Torres for him, what would be a more middle ground fair trade for him from the Cubs?

 

[knoxville7]

Chris would give the Cubs everything they want in a TOR. The White Sox should pull in an amazing haul for him. Granted, I would want Bryant, Soler, Russell and some specs and you guys want to trade us AA and Torres for him, what would be a more middle ground fair trade for him from the Cubs?

baez, vogelbach, AA, torres, and another arm?

 

[beckdawg]

Feel like you're not talking about *that* much more than what someone like Price was traded for. He's arguably worth substantially more but the problem is who can give up say 3 top 75 prospects and still be good enough to need him? If we're not talking any particular names, I'd say sale is worth 3 top 100 prospects plus 1-2 top 20 guys. Typically speaking, top in their prime pitches go for 2 top 100 guys and some back end filler.

Bryant is frankly totally unrealistic in any trade. He's on pace for over a 7 fWAR season and he may not even be at his full potential yet. There is some dispute about WAR with regard to pitching as it may not properly value pitching. Some prefer RA9-WAR. But either way Sale's best season thus far in fWAR was 5.1 fWAR and 6.2 RA9-WAR. So, one could argue that right now Bryant is a better player and may only get better.

Russell I can't imagine is going anywhere. He's holding his own at 21.5 years old and has generally been very good defensively at 2B which given what's been reported about him you would imagine would translate to SS. His UZR/150 is presently 18 which is essentially gold glove caliber. Granted it isn't really enough time to entirely evaluate but it matches with the narrative you can visually see.

You could also potentially talk on Castro. He's obviously a bit redundant given Russell and Baez/Alcantara/Bruno/Torres/Happ...etc as possible 2B options. He'd make a ton of sense as a cost controlled player for the Sox with Ramirez aging. The thing is as a sox fan I don't think you'd be getting as much with him as you think. I mean you're talking about an All Star SS despite his flaws who's 25.

As for prospects, I think Schwarber is probably off limits right now. He's hitting close to what Bryant did in the minors and his debut was fairly decent. If he does stick behind catcher even at Mike Piazza levels of defense that is a huge bat for any position let alone C. I've said my thoughts on Baez. Alcantara I'm probably too homer on to give any realistic evaluation however I feel like he has far more value to the cubs than he would in a trade.

To me if you're talking this trade you center it on Baez/Castro whomever you pick to be the starting 2B opposite Russell. I don't buy the rhetoric of Baez to LF/3B as being a real option. Given what Bryant's shown at 3B I don't think you mess with that to push him into the OF and I think playing Baez in LF is entirely wasting a good portion of his value as a defender. I think Castro has some what more value given he's a proven player and cost controlled. If you go with Castro I think you're adding probably Underwood as I imagine the sox would want some pitching back and Underwood has the best ceiling as a starter for the cubs. Then maybe you also add in Vogelbach as he clearly has more value to a AL team. As for the back end guys, Christian Villanueva and Jeimer Candelario are sort of interesting redundant names. Take one of those and maybe another low end arm like Daury Torrez. On the other hand, if you start with Baez I think you probably get him, Underwood, and one of Almora/McKinney. You might also throw in Vogelbach plus Villanueva/Candelrio and Torrez.

Like I said, I can't realistically see a sox fan think man we killed that trade. But compare it to trades in the past that were made. For example the biggest block buster in my memory was Dontrelle Willis and Miggy to the tigers. Looking back on it now Willis gets forgotten but he was arguably on a similar level to Sale at the time. At 21 he had a 3.4 fWAR season, at 22 he had a 3.2, at 23 he had a 6.5, at 24 he had 3.1 and the year prior to the deal he had a down year at 0.9 fWAR. But he was only going to be 26 and he wasn't even the best player in the trade. Florida ended up getting Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo. Maybin was #6 on BA's top 100 and Miller was #10. None of the other guys made a top 100 list. Though De La Cruz and Trahern were top 10 tiger prospects. Now keep in mind Sale is good but he's not Miggy good and that's before you consider what value Willis had in that trade.

There's always the chance some team goes stupid and offers crazy prospects for him but I really can't see him fetching much more than that. I was amazed the A's gave up Russell for Shark frankly. The only other teams besides the cubs I can see even having the prospects are Houston, the Dodgers, the twins(no go in division) and maybe Boston. And there in lies the problem. If the put Sale out there and the cubs offer Baez/Underwood/McKinney + minor parts and the Sox say no then who's going to give them more?

 

[beckdawg]

Also for what it's worth, fangraphs talked about this here to an extent http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-its-time-to-blow-up-the-white-sox/

For the cubs it was Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, and Arismendy Alcantara, plus they have to absorb Melky Cabrera in the deal as well. He also mentioned the Dodgers giving up Seager/Urias + eating John Dank's money.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Chris would give the Cubs everything they want in a TOR. The White Sox should pull in an amazing haul for him. Granted, I would want Bryant, Soler, Russell and some specs and you guys want to trade us AA and Torres for him, what would be a more middle ground fair trade for him from the Cubs?

I don't either side would make this trade for about 50 different reasons, PR not the least among them, but I think Schwarber, Baez and McKinney is probably the ballpark that Sale is worth and a good measuring stick for the type of players another team might give up. For my money he's the best lefty in baseball right now, all due respect to Clayton Kershaw, and he's under team control through 2019. Again I don't think these two teams could make a trade of this magnitude. If it didn't work for the Sox they'd be paying for it for a decade in bad PR. I do think the Sox explore his market though because they will still have a cost controlled very good starter in Quintana and two potential TOR starters in Rodon and Fullmer. With Abraeu and Garcia already on the roster, Tim Anderson looking like a real hitter in the system and the 3 near ready prospects Sale could bring back the Sox could compete as early as 2017. I'm not sure a bold move like that is in their DNA though.

 

[Grizzly]

As for me, I would not sell the farm for any pitcher.
1-You have the injury factor
2-The fact they pitch only once every 5 days (if your lucky)
I've been really happy with the way the Cubs have been doing things so far. Unless the Cubs feel guys like Baez or Schwarber are not going to be stars in the league then by all means get what you can. I wouldn't trade guys who could be stars for 10 years for a pitcher. Use free agency for TOR pitchers.

 

[TL1961]

Josh Vitters, Brett Jackson, Felix Pie and Corey Patterson

 

[brett05]

Also for what it's worth, fangraphs talked about this here to an extent http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-its-time-to-blow-up-the-white-sox/

For the cubs it was Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, and Arismendy Alcantara, plus they have to absorb Melky Cabrera in the deal as well. He also mentioned the Dodgers giving up Seager/Urias + eating John Dank's money.

That article was really bad. I read that which inspired me to post this.

 

[brett05]

AA is not a piece for the White Sox. They have that already in the system. Vogelbach is a guy they like but is never a guy that really helps if that makes sense for the White Sox.

I think if Sale was traded you'd have to give up at least one between Soler and Russell as being the best piece of the trade from the Cubs perspective.

I think Sale pulls in a lot more than Price for multiple reasons. Let's forget who is better, Sale is younger, signed long term, signed for super cheap dollars, and absolutely obliterates the NL when he pitches.

I agree on the teams mentioned that could trade for Sale and for the most part agree that the White Sox would probably not get fair value for Sale in a trade.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think Schwarber is a better bat than Soler so that's why I mentioned him. I would gladly trade Soler, Baez and McKinney for Sale. If I'm the Sox though I insist on Schwarber.

 

[brett05]

I think Schwarber is a better bat than Soler so that's why I mentioned him. I would gladly trade Soler, Baez and McKinney for Sale. If I'm the Sox though I insist on Schwarber.

There would be two issues. Do the White Sox scouts think Schwarber can play C. The Sox probably have little to no interest in Baez until he proves he can hit major league pitching. With Soler there wouldn't be a need for McKinney. Russell, McKinney, Schwarber and someone like Pierce might make the needle move.

 

[CSF77]

Fair value:

It will take 2 blue chips. So it starts with Baez as 1. Now the Cubs top arm is Carl Edwards but I wouldn't call him a blue chip right now. He has a better chance becoming a closer at this point. I would want a legit SP prospect. Cubs would have to give Duane Underwood. He has been healthy and pitches in the upper 90's. Of all of the starting pitching prospects they have he seems the one that will end up a major league starter for years to come.

So Baez and Underwood is the starting point.

Seeing how they have a 1 and a 1B type going on they would have to add 2 more quality pieces. Not filler. Vogelbach is a no brainier. Big LH power at DH. Will make a good 1/2 combo for year to come with Baez at SS or 2B. Don't matter to be honest here. The 4th player I would take Alcantara.

From the Sox perspective:

Alexei has a 2016 club option for 10 mil. Cheap by today's standards. That trade would put Baez at 3B, Alexei at SS, Alcantara at 2B, Abreu at 1B. DH LaRoche. He goes to F/A after 2016 and Vogelbach would be in AAA that year. So they would have his replacement league ready when needed. Ace they have Rondon already. They should try to extend shark and let Underwood develop.

What they would be getting is 2 starters in the IF. A project-able arm and a DH that compares with Schwarber at hitting.

That is a fair offer. Given Baez could become a 30-40 HR bat at SS in 2017 for them and Vogelbach putting up near .400 OBA and 30 HR power splitting Baez and Abreu. Add to it the current cheap cost for that power. That in turn given payroll flexibility to start to reload the pitching staff.

 

[brett05]

Fair value:

It will take 2 blue chips. So it starts with Baez as 1. Now the Cubs top arm is Carl Edwards but I wouldn't call him a blue chip right now. He has a better chance becoming a closer at this point. I would want a legit SP prospect. Cubs would have to give Duane Underwood. He has been healthy and pitches in the upper 90's. Of all of the starting pitching prospects they have he seems the one that will end up a major league starter for years to come.

So Baez and Underwood is the starting point.

Seeing how they have a 1 and a 1B type going on they would have to add 2 more quality pieces. Not filler. Vogelbach is a no brainier. Big LH power at DH. Will make a good 1/2 combo for year to come with Baez at SS or 2B. Don't matter to be honest here. The 4th player I would take Alcantara.

From the Sox perspective:

Alexei has a 2016 club option for 10 mil. Cheap by today's standards. That trade would put Baez at 3B, Alexei at SS, Alcantara at 2B, Abreu at 1B. DH LaRoche. He goes to F/A after 2016 and Vogelbach would be in AAA that year. So they would have his replacement league ready when needed. Ace they have Rondon already. They should try to extend shark and let Underwood develop.

What they would be getting is 2 starters in the IF. A project-able arm and a DH that compares with Schwarber at hitting.

That is a fair offer. Given Baez could become a 30-40 HR bat at SS in 2017 for them and Vogelbach putting up near .400 OBA and 30 HR power splitting Baez and Abreu. Add to it the current cheap cost for that power. That in turn given payroll flexibility to start to reload the pitching staff.

Alcantra has no value for the White Sox. They have him already. The one thing the White Sox have is MI utility type guys. Again, Baez moved the needle before he got a run at the show, his value has dropped considerably. I think it would have to be Schwarber over Vogelbach if they are looking for a long term slugger to basically just DH.

EDIT: Plus I think a team is going to have to give up a proven Major League young player in on the deal.

 

[CSF77]

There would be two issues. Do the White Sox scouts think Schwarber can play C. The Sox probably have little to no interest in Baez until he proves he can hit major league pitching. With Soler there wouldn't be a need for McKinney. Russell, McKinney, Schwarber and someone like Pierce might make the needle move.

Every one expected Baez to struggle. He was rushed up. The thing with him is you have to look at his BB%. As long as it hovers around 10% he is having good AB's. That will translate latter on in his career when he is not feeling so over matched. Basic tool set.

The thing is players struggle. Baez was a top 10 prospect so he was just on the radar more. What will help him early on is to take walks. That overshadows a high SO%. The top 2 NL rookies are falling into this. Joc and Kris. Both SO a bunch but it is their high BB% that is pushing up their values. The guy with the most HR's will end up the NL Rookie of the year between those 2.

 

[CSF77]

Alcantra has no value for the White Sox. They have him already. The one thing the White Sox have is MI utility type guys. Again, Baez moved the needle before he got a run at the show, his value has dropped considerably. I think it would have to be Schwarber over Vogelbach if they are looking for a long term slugger to basically just DH.

EDIT: Plus I think a team is going to have to give up a proven Major League young player in on the deal.

Teams are not going to over pay for Sale with Price on the market in the offseason. Price will cost a 1st round pick and with the way the Cubs are playing that is a late 20's pick. Not a big deal to be honest.

Reality is they are not going to give up any player that is not replaceable.

Add to it you undervalue Alcantara. SH that has 20 HR power. Can be moved around like Zorbrist. Is running 8-10% BB with good speed. Plays strong D at 2B. This is a guy that you could develop as a lead off type.

The main point is they would be able to fill roles on the team at cheap cost. Then they can use that savings towards the rotation.

If I am Theo I am thinking at best Kaz this year. Next year Price.

Edit: If it wasn't for Bryant and Russell (Theo's guys) it would be Baez and Alcantara (Hendry's guys) playing. It really comes down to that.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

It depends.......

I would have no problem parting with Almora, Vogelbach, Baez or Castro, and CJ Edwards for Sale, Spencer Adams and Jace Fry.

But if Kenny were going to entertain talks, how does he not ask for Schwarber off the bat (pun intended), and plug him in day 1 at DH or in the OF, or let him play Catcher. Kenny doesn't like to baby guys, Theo does.

Sale would cost one of Russell, Schwarber, or Bryant. Bryant's off the table. I know everybody on the South Side is DYING to get rid of Alexei Ramirez.

For some stupid reason when Waddle & Silvy go to break, if Im too bored to listen to commercials driving home I turn on Boers and Bernstein, who are just assholes. After being assholes (deservedly so) to dipshit callers, they rag Ramirez for being god awful.

It would depend who Kenny likes. Kenny doesn't like a certain kind of ball player the way Theo does. Theo's guys walk. Kenny's guys hit. Kenny may love Starlin Castro because his offensive game is simple. See the ball, hit the ball. Kenny likes his players like that. He may love Baez.

Hard to see him not demanding Schwarber. Kenny has the upper hand. Sale is under contract until 2019, is it?

So my final offer: Schwarber, Vogelbach, CJ Edwards, Almora and Baez for Sale, Adams, and a PTBN later--who I'd ask for Fullmer or Zack Erwin (2nd round pick after Fullmer) this winter/upcoming spring or whenever he's able to be dealt.

And then Theo can go back to bulk drafting hitting. Cubs get a true TOR ace and future TOR potential arms, albeit 18 and 20, Sox get a AED jumpstart on their currently dead future and their laughable offense.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I disagree with you on Price over Sale. I read the other day that Sale would get the largest haul in trade that a pitcher has ever gone for and I believe that. You're talking a cost controlled 26 year old who on a given day is the best lefty in the game. Price will sign for 7 year and roughly $220 million at 30 years old. Sale would rebuild the Sox farm in one fell swoop. I'm not sure if I'm the Cubs I trade for him, if he were available, but I sure would take a look.

 

[Nick]

Would not trade Bryant or Russell straight up for him. Yes sale is Great with and good contract buy my fair of injury for him is pretty high.

 

[CSF77]

Rather trade for Jose Quintana. Would cost less and he fits in as a 2nd LH pitcher on the staff.

 

[brett05]

Would not trade Bryant or Russell straight up for him. Yes sale is Great with and good contract buy my fair of injury for him is pretty high.

And I understand that. Theo would in a heart beat. Any GM would.