Comp Picks

WindyCity · Feb 14, 2019

I have been doing some reading about comp picks and although the actual formula is a secret OTC has done a nice job of breaking it down.

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

https://overthecap.com/draft/

This is foreign territory for the Bears so I thought I would write a little about it.

There are only 32 comp picks handed out so your lost players must qualify in the top 32 for a pick to be rewarded. There is a maximum of 4 per team.

FA Values to Draft Round

10 million + [3rd]

7.5 million + [4th]

5.5 million + [5th]

3.5 million + [6th]

2.1 million + [7th] *The bottom cut off is determined by the top 32 qualifying contracts. It changes every year.

Determining Your Comp Picks

It is based on a cancelling system. Your signings cancel out similar contracts that your players signed in the same round or a round below. A signing cannot cancel a round about.

Ex. If Adrian Amos signs an 8/season contract [4th round] and the Bears sign Cam Wake fro 5 million [6th round] he would not cancel out the loss of Amos and they would he would count as a comp pick.

Long story short if the Bears do not sign anyone in the 4th round range they should get 4th round picks for Callahan and Amos.

Players that Do Not Count Against Comp Picks

-Re-signing you free agents like Bobbie Massie

-Trading for players.

-Signing players after June 1st

-Players who were cut by their teams and are not true free agents

JoJoBoxer · Feb 14, 2019

Players who were cut by their teams and are not true free agents

Can you explain how a player who is cut is not a true free agent?

What situation would that be?

dabears70 · Feb 14, 2019

WindyCity said:
I have been doing some reading about comp picks and although the actual formula is a secret OTC has done a nice job of breaking it down.

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

https://overthecap.com/draft/

This is foreign territory for the Bears so I thought I would write a little about it.

There are only 32 comp picks handed out so your lost players must qualify in the top 32 for a pick to be rewarded. There is a maximum of 4 per team.

FA Values to Draft Round

10 million + [3rd]

7.5 million + [4th]

5.5 million + [5th]

3.5 million + [6th]

2.1 million + [7th] *The bottom cut off is determined by the top 32 qualifying contracts. It changes every year.

Determining Your Comp Picks

It is based on a cancelling system. Your signings cancel out similar contracts that your players signed in the same round or a round below. A signing cannot cancel a round about.

Ex. If Adrian Amos signs an 8/season contract [4th round] and the Bears sign Cam Wake fro 5 million [6th round] he would not cancel out the loss of Amos and they would he would count as a comp pick.

Long story short if the Bears do not sign anyone in the 4th round range they should get 4th round picks for Callahan and Amos.

Players that Do Not Count Against Comp Picks

-Re-signing you free agents like Bobbie Massie

-Trading for players.

-Signing players after June 1st

-Players who were cut by their teams and are not true free agents

The Bears are very close to being in the place to earn some comp picks and like you said that could happen as soon as 2020 if we don't re-sign Amos and Callahan and don't replace them with players at their value and we're close because we have players like D.Bush and S.McManis who just might be able to replace one of both of them. It would be a little scary having both Bush and McManis taking over such important roles but sure would be nice having some extra draft picks in 2020 for sure.

WindyCity · Feb 14, 2019

JoJoBoxer said:
Can you explain how a player who is cut is not a true free agent?

What situation would that be?

For a released player they are a free agent, but for comp picks it is only true UFAs who's contract has expired and who are not subject to waivers.

Penny Traitor · Feb 14, 2019

dabears70 said:
The Bears are very close to being in the place to earn some comp picks and like you said that could happen as soon as 2020 if we don't re-sign Amos and Callahan and don't replace them with players at their value and we're close because we have players like D.Bush and S.McManis who just might be able to replace one of both of them. It would be a little scary having both Bush and McManis taking over such important roles but sure would be nice having some extra draft picks in 2020 for sure.

Wait.

So players they lose this year nets the team Comp Picks next year?

That seems wrong, but I have had an easier time discussing Quantum Physics over NFL Compensation Picks.

pseudonym · Feb 14, 2019

Wow. Thanks for the education.

remydat · Feb 14, 2019

Why are we assuming the Bears let both Amos and Callahan walk? And if we saying we let Callahan walk because of his injury history then how likely is it that another team is going to compensate in the range that warrants a 4th round pick?

WindyCity · Feb 14, 2019

remydat said:
Why are we assuming the Bears let both Amos and Callahan walk? And if we saying we let Callahan walk because of his injury history then how likely is it that another team is going to compensate in the range that warrants a 4th round pick?

I am operating under the assumption that the Bears are going to get priced out on both of them. Multiple publications are projecting Callahan at 7+.

Swinging a multi year deal at 7 or more annually is going to require restructuring money and moving it into the future.

So, I do not think the Bears are going to "let them walk" I am not sure the Bears are going to be able to compete with the open market. Until they re-sign I will assume they are leaving because of the Bears cap space.

Sculpt · Feb 14, 2019

WindyCity said:
FA Values to Draft Round

10 million + [3rd]

7.5 million + [4th]

5.5 million + [5th]

3.5 million + [6th]

2.1 million + [7th] *The bottom cut off is determined by the top 32 qualifying contracts. It changes every year.

Ex. If Adrian Amos signs an 8/season contract [4th round] and the Bears sign Cam Wake fro 5 million [6th round] he would not cancel out the loss of Amos and they would he would count as a comp pick.

Thanks for the info, Windy!

If your example happened, would Bears comp pick be the difference in $ between Amos and Wake: $3mil = 7th pick (which I would have assumed)? or full value of Amos: 4th?

remydat · Feb 14, 2019

WindyCity said:
I am operating under the assumption that the Bears are going to get priced out on both of them. Multiple publications are projecting Callahan at 7+.

Swinging a multi year deal at 7 or more annually is going to require restructuring money and moving it into the future.

So, I do not think the Bears are going to "let them walk" I am not sure the Bears are going to be able to compete with the open market. Until they re-sign I will assume they are leaving because of the Bears cap space.

Fair enough if they end up costing that much.

ZOMBIE@CTESPN · Feb 14, 2019

Last time we had comp picks I believe JA wasted those picks on okwo and Wolfe? It’s been that long since we had a good enough roster to get comps lol

alexbear1 · Feb 14, 2019

dabears70 said:
The Bears are very close to being in the place to earn some comp picks and like you said that could happen as soon as 2020 if we don't re-sign Amos and Callahan and don't replace them with players at their value and we're close because we have players like D.Bush and S.McManis who just might be able to replace one of both of them. It would be a little scary having both Bush and McManis taking over such important roles but sure would be nice having some extra draft picks in 2020 for sure.

Hard to replace Callahan I think. He's really very good in the slot. However injuries are his weakness as we all know.

WindyCity · Feb 14, 2019

Sculpt said:
Thanks for the info, Windy!

If your example happened, would Bears comp pick be the difference in $ between Amos and Wake: $3mil = 7th pick (which I would have assumed)? or full value of Amos: 4th?

From the reading I have done it does not add or subtract.

Contracts at the same level cancel out 1 to 1.

Sign Wake 5 million Lose Lynch for 5-Cancelled

Sign Wake for 5 lose Lynch for 3.5-Cancelled.

You cannot lose a higher comp contract based on a lower one or multiple lower ones. If Amos leaves for 8 million then we would have to sign someone for an average of 7.5 to lose that pick.

zack54attack · Feb 14, 2019

These are always confusing but this is a good breakdown. Thanks!

PolarBear · Feb 14, 2019

Always found this interesting and I have always noticed that New England takes advantage of this a lot.

If we can get two 4th round picks next year for Amos and Callahan, I think you let them walk, bring in competition for guys like Bush, Tolliver, Mcmanis through lower level FA's and draft picks. They are not the cornerstones of the defense.

The Bears have big money tied up in Mack, Hicks, Fuller and Goldman already and I would like them to tie Jackson into that mix.

As long as we have that fundamental core of players, the defense will be fine.

iueyedoc · Feb 14, 2019

Jamais Vu said:
Wait.

So players they lose this year nets the team Comp Picks next year?

That seems wrong, but I have had an easier time discussing Quantum Physics over NFL Compensation Picks.

Playing time and post season honors also affect the comp pick, so until the player has a season away from the team losing him, his exact round status is unknown.

Penny Traitor · Feb 14, 2019

iueyedoc said:
Playing time and post season honors also affect the comp pick, so until the player has a season away from the team losing him, his exact round status is unknown.

That makes sense.

Or at least as much sense as one can make of this looney system.

dabears70 · Feb 14, 2019

remydat said:
Why are we assuming the Bears let both Amos and Callahan walk? And if we saying we let Callahan walk because of his injury history then how likely is it that another team is going to compensate in the range that warrants a 4th round pick?

I wasn't assuming that we'd lose both i was just using it as an example if we did but i think we'd definitely sign one of them.

dabears70 · Feb 14, 2019

alexbear1 said:
Hard to replace Callahan I think. He's really very good in the slot. However injuries are his weakness as we all know.

He really is a great NB/Slot guy but as you said the injury issues are an issue. In his 4 years with us he's played in 9, 11, 12 and 13 games last year so he is playing in more games as the hears go on and in 2015 when he played in 9 games he only started 3 of those games so he wasn't even our full time NB at that time and in 2017 he started just 6 of the 12 games he played but not sure why that was. I love what the guy does when he is healthy and for the right price i'd be fine with him being the one out of him and Amos that we sign.

WindyCity · Feb 14, 2019

One of the beat guys said that Callahan has a chronic hip issue that the new staff and he finally figured out a plan that worked.

It might have been Biggs who said it is a maitenance thing more than a dabilitating thing.

Comp Picks

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