Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

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SilenceS

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I think people think its way easier to hit a ball where you want then it actually is to do it. Also, that approach can hurt your swing. Now, doing it from time to time just to keep the defense honest isnt a bad idea, but yet again, its a little harder then people act.
 

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Interesting but the bottom line is the game changed after the lowering of the mound. Rotations went 4 to 5. BP became more predominate. Complete game a thing of the past.

If I would ask 1 person what they thought about it, it would be Nolen Ryan.
I can help you with that.

"For one thing, they don't learn to think for themselves anymore," he growls. "Coaches started calling all the pitches in high schools and colleges. How do they know, sitting on the bench, what the guy on the mound has confidence in? That's like going out there and telling the pitcher, 'Don't hang this curveball.' I call it robot baseball, and it drives me crazy."

Ryan leans back in his seat and stretches out his right leg above the floor, as if his body is still attuned to the rhythms of game day and it's nearing time for him to take the mound. But it's been 17 years since he retired, at age 46. Since then the game has seen many changes that stick in his craw. "Pitchers have been pampered," he says. "I'd go to spring training, and all they'd do was throw on the side. Now how in the world do you learn how a hitter's going to react to your pitches without a hitter in there? I always thought that was crazy." He rattles a plastic cup full of ice and returns to his sermon. "Our expectations of them have been lowered. There's no reason why kids today can't pitch as many innings as people did in my era. Today a quality start is six innings. What's quality about that?"

http://www.jaegersports.com/press_articles.php?psid=23
 

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I think people think its way easier to hit a ball where you want then it actually is to do it. Also, that approach can hurt your swing. Now, doing it from time to time just to keep the defense honest isnt a bad idea, but yet again, its a little harder then people act.
I'd like some explanation as to how taking pitches the other way hurts your swing. That's what hitting 200 balls off a tee each day is for. As an example, I've witnessed top shelf MLBers placing a tee outside and extremely out front. I asked one why he was doing this and it was because of getting fooled on sliders and needing to make adjustments in the swing. The player I reference is at the tail end of his career and will be in the Hall of Very Good/borderline HoFer.
 

beckdawg

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I didn't say that. I specifically stated they pulled a shift on Ted Williams and he did just fine. It takes a player getting his head out of his ass to learn how to beat it.

And you're also talking about one of the greatest hitters ever. I'm not saying players can't beat it but the players have changed their approach in the steroid years to make money.

[video=youtube;Ar4zBuTV-kQ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar4zBuTV-kQ[/video]

Here's an excerpt from the OTL video I was talking about. I tried to find the whole thing but apparently it's not online. But I think this covers the point I was trying to make which is that a lot of these guys became great players by taking one approach and often times to change that might make them less of a player. Obviously the great players will adapt but not all of them will. That's why it's hard.
 

SilenceS

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I'd like some explanation as to how taking pitches the other way hurts your swing. That's what hitting 200 balls off a tee each day is for. As an example, I've witnessed top shelf MLBers placing a tee outside and extremely out front. I asked one why he was doing this and it was because of getting fooled on sliders and needing to make adjustments in the swing. The player I reference is at the tail end of his career and will be in the Hall of Very Good/borderline HoFer.

They are pitching to the shift. They arent serving a ball up on a tee and saying go the other way. Most shifts are for power guys and power guys swing for one reason. They didnt become ML players by bunting.
 

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They are pitching to the shift. They arent serving a ball up on a tee and saying go the other way. Most shifts are for power guys and power guys swing for one reason. They didnt become ML players by bunting.
Thanks, Captain Obvious. I provided a personal insight with how MLBers stay on top of adjustments, not specifically how to deal with keeping the hands back and staying inside the ball. Williams struggled with the shift for quite a while. It isn't an overnight process.
 

beckdawg

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I wouldn't put Alcantara power as Above Average, id even question if Castro power is Above Average now..

15-20 HR power out of CF is above average. Maybe I should have prefaced I was looking at things positionally not vs everyone in the league. 8 Players in CF last year had 15+ HRs.
 

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15-20 HR power out of CF is above average. Maybe I should have prefaced I was looking at things positionally not vs everyone in the league. 8 Players in CF last year had 15+ HRs.
I liked the question you raised. It's a good one for discussion. I'm wondering if it's better to look at power numbers from the perspective of where a player hits in the lineup as opposed to where they play in the field. As an example, if Alcantara can figure out MLB pitching, he is a potential leadoff man, correct? How do his potential numbers look against others in the leadoff spot?
 

chibears55

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15-20 HR power out of CF is above average. Maybe I should have prefaced I was looking at things positionally not vs everyone in the league. 8 Players in CF last year had 15+ HRs.
I dont know, maybe its because im not as high on this kid as most are to his success in the major league level...

I actually think if he doesn't pick it up the rest of year, he may start 2015 in AAA
 

beckdawg

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I liked the question you raised. It's a good one for discussion. I'm wondering if it's better to look at power numbers from the perspective of where a player hits in the lineup as opposed to where they play in the field. As an example, if Alcantara can figure out MLB pitching, he is a potential leadoff man, correct? How do his potential numbers look against others in the leadoff spot?

Even if you ignore HR's Alcantara has a lot of doubles power in particular. Additionally, personally I'd prefer Alcantara in the 2 hole. As for the question,

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2013

Looks like "average" if you normalize over 162 games for the league and use only games started out of the the 1 hole is 11.84 HRs and 15.79 out of the #2 hole. So, that's perhaps a tad off but it's hard to separate out bench players/subs here.
 

SilenceS

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Alcanatara can never bat leadoff unless he cuts down K's. I want to say he is over 27% right now and that def. would not play.
 

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Also, if we are talking by position. Baez bat plays even more at second. Add in his supposed plus D at second and great base running instincts and you are talking a 2nd baseman that league hasnt seen is quite sometime.
 

chibears55

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Also, if we are talking by position. Baez bat plays even more at second. Add in his supposed plus D at second and great base running instincts and you are talking a 2nd baseman that league hasnt seen is quite sometime.
We will know a lot more after he goes through a full MLB season in 2015 but I look at Javier Baez as the cubs potential Robinson Cano at 2B..
 

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Alcanatara can never bat leadoff unless he cuts down K's. I want to say he is over 27% right now and that def. would not play.
Agreed. This isn't what he was doing in AAA though, was it?
 

beckdawg

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We will know a lot more after he goes through a full MLB season in 2015 but I look at Javier Baez as the cubs potential Robinson Cano at 2B..

I get why you're going here but I don't think it's a great comparison. Cano came up as a high contact guy with great average. For example his first 3 years were 2.9%/12.3%, 3.5%/10.6%, 5.8%/12.7% with 14, 15, and 19 HRS, and .297/.320/.458, .342/.365/.525, and .306/.353/.488. I know I've said some negative things about Baez but he's never going to be that. Totally different hitter. When I was doing the prospect by the numbers things I actually looked up similar players and to be blunt, there weren't any at least at 2B. This is why I pointed out him playing 3B made more sense to me. There are some guys with similar numbers to him here and in corner OF spots.

Honestly, if you wanna go upside on Baez the better comp. is Alfonso Soriano with less speed as far as 2B goes. If you'd like to see similar types I did a quick look up for you on fangraphs

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...rost=0&age=0&filter=19038&players=0&sort=11,d

This is every player from 1950-present with < 10% bb rate and > 20% K rate which is likely very generous for where Baez will be.
 

chibears55

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I get why you're going here but I don't think it's a great comparison. Cano came up as a high contact guy with great average. For example his first 3 years were 2.9%/12.3%, 3.5%/10.6%, 5.8%/12.7% with 14, 15, and 19 HRS, and .297/.320/.458, .342/.365/.525, and .306/.353/.488. I know I've said some negative things about Baez but he's never going to be that. Totally different hitter. When I was doing the prospect by the numbers things I actually looked up similar players and to be blunt, there weren't any at least at 2B. This is why I pointed out him playing 3B made more sense to me. There are some guys with similar numbers to him here and in corner OF spots.

Honestly, if you wanna go upside on Baez the better comp. is Alfonso Soriano with less speed as far as 2B goes. If you'd like to see similar types I did a quick look up for you on fangraphs

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...rost=0&age=0&filter=19038&players=0&sort=11,d

This is every player from 1950-present with < 10% bb rate and > 20% K rate which is likely very generous for where Baez will be.
yea your right Soriano at 2B would've been the better comparison outside the 30+ SB threat...

I was looking at more the power/ SLG threat at 2B as far as a Cano comparison.. yea he would have to drastically cut down on the Ks to be where Cano is Avg. wise..
 

SilenceS

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Agreed. This isn't what he was doing in AAA though, was it?

Alcantara has always struck out at a high clip for not being a power guy. In AA, he figured out how to walk. Then he struggled walking in AAA but then figured it out. He was at 22.7% K rate when he was called up. He has to walk to counteract that because he doesnt have near the power potential. You cant get on base. You cant bat leadoff. This is part of Alcantara game that worries me. Time will tell if he can adjust.
 

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I get why you're going here but I don't think it's a great comparison. Cano came up as a high contact guy with great average. For example his first 3 years were 2.9%/12.3%, 3.5%/10.6%, 5.8%/12.7% with 14, 15, and 19 HRS, and .297/.320/.458, .342/.365/.525, and .306/.353/.488. I know I've said some negative things about Baez but he's never going to be that. Totally different hitter. When I was doing the prospect by the numbers things I actually looked up similar players and to be blunt, there weren't any at least at 2B. This is why I pointed out him playing 3B made more sense to me. There are some guys with similar numbers to him here and in corner OF spots.

Honestly, if you wanna go upside on Baez the better comp. is Alfonso Soriano with less speed as far as 2B goes. If you'd like to see similar types I did a quick look up for you on fangraphs

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...rost=0&age=0&filter=19038&players=0&sort=11,d

This is every player from 1950-present with < 10% bb rate and > 20% K rate which is likely very generous for where Baez will be.
That's a very interesting comparison. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember Soriano being a plus defender at 2B, which is one of the reasons the Nationals wanted to move him to LF?.
 
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