How Many Wins For The Cubs In 2014?

patg006 · Feb 22, 2014

beckdawg said:
So even with minimal changes you could be looking at +23 runs just by Castro returning to 2012 form and better play out of 2B and the bench.

IF Castro returns to form and IF you get better play from the bench and IF they get someone in LF to replace Soriano's pace of close to 30 HR's and 100 RBI's even though people seem to have a tough time understanding how valuable that was on a team completely missing any power outside of Soriano and IF Scheirholtz duplicates his career best season that saw him nearly double his career total in HR's.

That isn't asking for too much.

Lack of production in LF and Schierholtz returning to career form would probably more than offset the 18 runs that an improved Castro and Bonifacio would provide.

Are we really talking about Emilio Bonifacio improving the offense over Soriano??? LOL

Rizzo might not see a pitch to hit until June.

chibears55 · Feb 22, 2014

Actually it matters a lot how many starts were made by them and the percentage of starts ended up being wins for the Cubs.

A whole lot.

I am sure 2 pitchers who pitch the entire year for the Cubs should win more than 13 games.

Only it will probably take 2.5 times as many starts to reach that same total.

14 out of 65 is not an improvement over 13 out of 26.

13 wins is 13 wins no matter how you try to make it look impressive.. they won 66 games, you say their gonna be 10 games worse mainly on account of losing 2 starters who won a combined total of 13 of those 66 wins.. those 13 wins are not going to be that difficult to make up by the 2 starters that end up taking their spot in the rotation..

now if your reasoning was that samardzija, wood, and Jackson will be 10 games worse combined then last year.. then you have a point..

Just because YOU proclaim him a sleeper doesn't automatically make him a sleeper.

ummm.. yes it does cause he my sleeper..lol not everyone chooses the same player as a sleeper

The guy is a CAREER .258 hitter in the minors, yet you want to argue there is a realistic chance of him turning into a productive major league player, cause that is really what sleepers are. Players who are thought of to have a realistic chance of being a productive major league player.

are you for real ??? the kid was a top major league prospect going into last season, which that one season set him back because of his eyes situation..
I and many experts would say he has more then a legit realistic chance of being a productive major leaguer if his eyes situation if corrected..
WOW.. your starting to show your true colors here.. you seem to like calling poster fanboys, your truly coming off as just a hater here....

mike olt 2012 season in AA was pretty much like Javier Baez in 2013

354 AB .288 AVG 28 HR 82 RBI .398 OBP .579 SLG .977 OPS

patg006 · Feb 22, 2014

chibears55 said:
13 wins is 13 wins no matter how you try to make it look impressive.. they won 66 games, you say their gonna be 10 games worse mainly on account of losing 2 starters who won a combined total of 13 of those 66 wins.. those 13 wins are not going to be that difficult to make up by the 2 starters that end up taking their spot in the rotation..

now if your reasoning was that samardzija, wood, and Jackson will be 10 games worse combined then last year.. then you have a point..

Or my reasoning might be that the two starters who replace Garza and Feldman will only win 7 games in their first 26 starts. Which would put the team 6 games worse than last year.

So if they then go on to win only 10 games in their next 40 starts, that .250 percentage is still worse than the teams .407 win percentage from last year.

But you somehow want to call a lower winning percentage an improvement?

If you take the 13 wins that Garza and Feldman got last year and add 16 wins to that total (40.7% of 40 more starts, I will save you the math) that gives you 29 wins. So the two pitchers that replace Garza and Feldman will have to combine for 30 wins to improve over those two spots in the rotation from last year.

You do understand percentages don't you?

beckdawg · Feb 22, 2014

patg006 said:
IF Castro returns to form and IF you get better play from the bench and IF they get someone in LF to replace Soriano's pace of close to 30 HR's and 100 RBI's even though people seem to have a tough time understanding how valuable that was on a team completely missing any power outside of Soriano and IF Scheirholtz duplicates his career best season that saw him nearly double his career total in HR's.

Soriano wasn't on pace for 100 RBI's with the cubs. He was on pace for 83. I'll even do the math for you here. In 383 plate appearances he had 17 hrs 47 runs 51 RBIs. He finished the season with 626 PAs between the yankees and the cubs. 626/383 = 1.63.

17 * 1.63 = 28 HRs
47 * 1.63 = 77 runs
51 * 1.63 = 83 RBIs

Sorry but someone who hits .254/.287/.467 with that pace isn't that valuable especially out of a LFer. You're talking about a less valuable Chris Carter who also in LF hit .223/.320/.451 with 29 hrs 64 runs 82 RBIs. Are you seriously going to sit here and suggest that a Chris Carter level player is something you can't replace? And Soriano did such a bang up job "protecting" Rizzo last season.

As for Bonifacio, why are you comparing him to Soriano? Clearly he would be taking Barney's job.

chibears55 · Feb 22, 2014

If you take the 13 wins that Garza and Feldman got last year and add 16 wins to that total (40.7% of 40 more starts, I will save you the math) that gives you 29 wins. So the two pitchers that replace Garza and Feldman will have to combine for 30 wins to improve over those two spots in the rotation from last year.

You do understand percentages don't you?

LMAO.. so its ok for you to play the IF game..
alright then, so based on those percentages Arrieta should be a 15 game winner this year if he makes all his starts, and Hammel going off of last years percentages and getting that bump from going to NL from AL , should project to be a 12-13 game winner.. so ok not quite 30 but pretty damn close at 27-28 projected wins going by your method of percentages..

Arrieta and Hammell are pretty much in the same boat with Garza and Feldman last year with winniing percentages...

beckdawg · Feb 22, 2014

Also I'll throw this up. This is from David Schoenfield who has exactly 0 reason to favor the cubs.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/44022/ranking-the-teams-30-through-25

27. Chicago Cubs

How they can get to 90 wins: Score 101 more runs, allow 67 fewer.

Big offseason moves: Acquired OF Justin Ruggiano from the Marlins for OF Brian Bogusevic. An old-fashioned challenge trade!

Most intriguing player: Starlin Castro. Once deemed one of the game's rising stars (remember that Sports Illustrated cover?), Castro hit just .245/.284/.347 in 2013 and reminded Cubs fans more of Mick Kelleher than of a franchise building block. He may have run into a lot of bad luck -- his line drive rate was consistent with his previous seasons -- and he's still just 24. But with prospect Javier Baez soon to be ready, this looms as an important year for Castro and his future with the Cubs.

Due for a better year: Joining Castro in the bad luck department was first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who posted a low .258 average on balls in play despite a solid 20.6 percent line drive rate. Rizzo still managed 65 extra-base hits even though he hit just .233. Look for a big uptick in his triple-slash numbers.

Due for a worse year: Travis Wood was the big surprise, going 9-12 but with a 3.11 ERA while pitching 200 innings. Wood is pretty unique among major league starters: a smallish lefty without an overpowering fastball who pitches up in the zone. But he mixes his 88-90 mph fastball with a cutter that rides in on right-handed batters, plus a changeup and occasional slider, and rarely, a curveball. He's any extreme fly ball pitcher -- only A.J. Griffin and Max Scherzer allowed a higher percentage of fly balls among starters -- which can lead to (A) a lower BABIP (which Wood had) and home runs (which weren't a problem in 2013 as Wood allowed just 18). I believe Wood is for real -- his cutter helps generate a lot of infield popups, for example -- but odds are a few more balls will leave the ballpark this year and the ERA rises.

I'm just the messenger: The Cubs scored their fewest runs per game since 1981 and finished 14th in the NL in runs scored for the second straight season. In Wrigley Field, that's unacceptable. But this continues a long string of bad Cubs offenses. Since winning 90 games in 1998, the Cubs have ranked higher than seventh in the NL in runs just once -- in 2008, when they ranked first and won 97 games. That's also the only season since 1998 the Cubs have reached 90 wins. Luckily, there appears to be help soon on the way with Baez, Kris Bryant and Albert Almora, the team's past three No. 1 picks, plus outfielder Jorge Soler and second baseman Arismendy Alcantara.

The final word: Like the Astros, the Cubs have benefited in building up their farm system by essentially accepting that losing is OK. The Cubs could improve with a more effective bullpen -- they lost 14 games they led heading into the seventh inning and eight they led heading into the eighth -- but I still see a team with holes in the rotation past Wood, Jeff Samardzija (who could get traded) and the mediocre Edwin Jackson and a lineup counting on big improvements from Castro and Rizzo. But wait 'til next year, Cubs fans ... wait 'til next year.

Prediction: 68-94

patg006 · Feb 22, 2014

beckdawg said:
Soriano wasn't on pace for 100 RBI's with the cubs. He was on pace for 83. I'll even do the math for you here. In 383 plate appearances he had 17 hrs 47 runs 51 RBIs. He finished the season with 626 PAs between the yankees and the cubs. 626/383 = 1.63.

17 * 1.63 = 28 HRs
47 * 1.63 = 77 runs
51 * 1.63 = 83 RBIs

Alright, fair enough.

28 HR's 77 runs and 83 RBI's.

Who on the Cubs roster is going to give you that in LF this year?

Ryan Sweeney?? Whose career 162 game averages come out to .278/.336/.383 and 5 HR's 65 runs and 55 rbi's??

Justin Ruggiano?? Whose career 162 game averages come out to .251/.315/.432 and 19 HR's 56 runs and 56 rbi's??

Those are valuable numbers from your LF??

That is what is going to protect Rizzo this year??

I never said that Soriano was producing at an elite level. Just that there isn't anyone on the roster who can replace his numbers in LF. We aren't comparing what Soriano did against the rest of the league. We are comparing Soriano and what he did last year to the people who are on the Cubs roster this year.

CSF77 · Feb 22, 2014

I believe the floor is last years team. 2013 Castro had a career worst year. The rotation was decent for the most part but the pen blew. Last year run production sucked also.

This year: Rotation look about the same as last. Feldman=Hammels. Arreta>Carlos V. (Garza was not around enough IMO), Shark ?, Wood ?, Jackson I doubt will produce another turd like that. His history has not been Bad/Bad/Bad it has been Bad/great/avg. I expect a bounce back.

Run production. IDK this it the catch. Just the glimpse of Olt bashing them into the parking lot this is under debate pretty fast. I've said Olt fixes himself then the Garza trade becomes a huge fleece of talent off of the Rangers. As the Rangers did not even make a play off run with what was given up and they did not even retain Garza.

patg006 · Feb 22, 2014

chibears55 said:
LMAO.. so its ok for you to play the IF game..

That isn't an IF game. Those are the FACTS from last year.

The Cubs actually went 16-10 in the games that Garza and Feldman started, so if you add that to the 16 wins the Cubs actual .407 winning percentage would give you from 40 more starts, that means that for there to be an improvement over what Garza and Feldman provided last year, the two starters that are replacing them will have to have the Cubs win 33 of their starts or basically be .500 in the games started.

It doesn't matter what Arrieta and Hammell did last year.

We are talking about what will have to happen THIS year to be an improvement over what Garza and Feldman provided last year.

The IF game would be that Arrieta and Hammel duplicate last year's winning percentages.

chibears55 · Feb 22, 2014

patg006 said:
That isn't an IF game. Those are the FACTS from last year.

The Cubs actually went 16-10 in the games that Garza and Feldman started, so if you add that to the 16 wins the Cubs actual .407 winning percentage would give you from 40 more starts, that means that for there to be an improvement over what Garza and Feldman provided last year, the two starters that are replacing them will have to have the Cubs win 33 of their starts or basically be .500 in the games started.

It doesn't matter what Arrieta and Hammell did last year.

We are talking about what will have to happen THIS year to be an improvement over what Garza and Feldman provided last year.

The IF game would be that Arrieta and Hammel duplicate last year's winning percentages.

lol.. whatever.. you feel 55 wins I say 70.. come Sept. we shall see who closer. .

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beckdawg · Feb 22, 2014

patg006 said:
Who on the Cubs roster is going to give you that in LF this year?

Different type of approach. As shocking as this may sound, the cubs last year were a bit of a HR or nothing team. They were second in the NL in HRs with 172. They had 576 RBIs. Roughly 1 in 3 of their RBI's came via a HR(just counting the batter not players on base). If you compare that to the top 5 NL teams in RBIs you have STL(17%), COL(24%), CIN(23%), ATL(28%), and ARI(20%). So, it's not the HR's from Soriano I care about because honestly they really don't matter. It's RBIs that matter or more accurately runs created.

The way the cubs go from being a terrible offense to at best probably NL average is to increase their team batting average and OBP. I gave an example earlier that showed 34% of their plate appearances were by guys who were sub .290 OBP. Unsurprisingly the cubs were 14th in the NL with .300 team OBP. OBP directly correlates to runs. The top 5 teams in NL OBP were STL, CIN, LAD, COL, and ARI who were 1st, 3rd, 7th, 2nd, 5th respectively in runs. So, in order for the cubs to be "better" offensively they have to improve their .300 team OBP. NL average was .315 with tops being the cards at .332. The cubs team BA last year was .238.

The 2014 cubs may not have as much power but this is their triple slash line up

C - Castillo .269/.341/.407
1b - Rizzo .238/.324/.412
2b - Bonifacio .262/.322/.340
3b - No idea who ends up here but last year 3B hit .221/.314/.434
ss - Starlin Castro .283/.322/.404
lf - Junior Lake .284/.332/.428(albeit small sample size)
cf - Ryan Sweeney .278/.336/.385
rf - Nate Schierholtz .265/.314/.438 vs righties Ruggiano .256/.328/.506 vs lefties

My argument is that this sort of line up boosts the 2013 cubs OBP to some where in the neighborhood of .310-.315 if not higher. Sure some players will play worse than their career numbers but some likely will play better. .310 to .315 OBP would be around the Brewers(74 wins last year .311 OBP), San Diego(76 wins .308 OBP), Washington(86 wins .313) and Pittsburgh(94 wins .313 OBP).

In other words, the point is you don't replace Soriano's production with one guy. If the cubs get this sort of improvement in OBP from LF, 2B, and SS specifically, they are a better team. And while yes that is an "if," OBP is a little more consistent than say BA because players tend to walk at a similar rate year to year where as BA is semi-affected by BABIP.

patg006 · Feb 22, 2014

beckdawg said:
It's RBIs that matter or more accurately runs created.

I agree.

But who on the Cubs roster will provide more RBI's than Soriano did last year?

Who on the Cubs roster will slug .467 in LF this year?

The way the cubs go from being a terrible offense to at best probably NL average is to increase their team batting average and OBP.

It takes more than that though.

You could have a single followed by two walks followed by a strike out and a double play. You batting average for the inning would be .333 and your OBP would be .500 yet you would not have created any runs because your slugging would be .250.

You can have 1 HR followed by 3 strike outs and have a BA and OBP for the inning of .250 but would have created one run cause your slugging would be 1.000.

Now don't confuse this with me saying that OBP is not important because it is, but SLG is the most important offensive stat in my opinion.

A player with a higher slugging percentage will create more runs than a player with a higher OBP on average.

8 out of the top 10 players in RC27 according to ESPN slugged over .500 last year. Only Votto and Choo slugged under .500 and Votto was at .491.

The advantage that slugging gives over OBP, in my opinion, is the ability to advance runners multiple bases.

A single followed by a double that scores the runner is worth more than three walks or singles that advance a runner one base.

A single followed by a double will produce more runs than two singles even though in those two situations the BA and OBP will be equal.

I rate offensive stats in the following order, SLG, OBP and then BA.

beckdawg · Feb 22, 2014

Oh one last thing, about Rizzo seeing pitches to hit. I'll humor you and say teams pitch around him. That in turn should increase his OBP seeing more walks unless he gets impatient and starts chasing out of the zone pitches. There hasn't been a defined conclusion based in the stat community but I'm not sure walks are a bad thing for middle of the order hitters. The discussion comes up a lot when talking about Joey Votto who lead the league last year with 18.6% walk rate. Now, I'm not comparing Rizzo to him because Votto hit .305 as well and Rizzo's top end is likely .270-.280 range. However, if Rizzo walks say 4% more next year that would put him at around 15% walk rate and if his average stays the same next year you're looking at something like a .233/.350/.419.

Obviously being on base is always a good thing. However, the question becomes how do you get people in? If Castro is on 1B and they walk Rizzo then you're relying on the #4 guy to get a hit. Besides my issues with Soriano's OBP, he hit .254 with the cubs last year. For the sake of argument, Schierholtz and Ruggiano have career BA of .265 and .256. So in terms of getting a hit they are arguably better than the 2013 Soriano was with the cubs. In fairness, what that doesn't show is a player who's got more potential for extra base hits. In other words, prototypical #4 hitters have more power and thus will get more doubles allowing for first to home scores rather than first to second or possibly third singles to the outfield.

In that case, I really don't feel like looking up line drive percentages. So, I'll concede that aspect for the moment. However, Lake, Bonifacio and presumably Castro if he rebounds give the cubs something they didn't have last year which is speed. The cubs stole 63 bases last year which was 13th in the NL. Lake has stole around 20 in the minors in about 400ish PAs so given a full MLB season you're talking 20-25. Castro 25 in 2012 but because he wasn't on base in 2013 only got 9. Bonifacio stole 40 in 2011 and has a 61 steal season in the minors. Between those 3 players alone you could be talking double the amount of stolen bases not to mention the ability to take extra bases on singles to the OF. Basically, you're talking about changing the cubs from a pretty piss poor mashing team into more of a small ball team.

beckdawg · Feb 22, 2014

patg006 said:
You could have a single followed by two walks followed by a strike out and a double play. You batting average for the inning would be .333 and your OBP would be .500 yet you would not have created any runs because your slugging would be .250.

It's a fair point and i mention it in the post above about Rizzo/protection. However, again it does bring to light the fact that Soriano still only was a .254 hitter with the cubs last year. He had 24 doubles and 1 triple to go along with his 17 HRs in his 383 PAs. To give a comparison, Lake in 254 PAs had 16 doubles. So, I'm not sure I'd classify Soriano as a doubles machine. His extra base hits have almost always been his HRs. In 2002 he had 51 but never more than 43 after that year. His triples tend to fade with his age and stolen bases(eg overall decrease in speed). If you look at projections for this year they put Lake at around 28 doubles given 600 PAs. That's vs the 32 Soriano actually had last season(both cubs and yanks combined).

Now that's maybe not apples to apples since I doubt they play lake in the #4 slot. All I'm trying to say is the drop off from Soriano's production is as large as it seems. If his OBP was in the .310-.315 range I think we're having a totally different conversation. In that case I feel he's a much more valuable player. My problem with him is he didn't hit for a great average(borderline below average to bad) and his OBP was 21st worst out of 140 qualified players and those were 2 things as a whole the entire cubs team didn't do well. So, while losing his slg is regrettable, adding someone who's got a much higher OBP and BA is quite desirable.

It's entirely possible for Lake to have a hot half season and fall off hard like Rizzo did this coming year. But the only way you find out is if you send Lake out there every day. It's also possible the cubs get guys on base and strand them. But, if that is indeed a problem, by midseason you likely will be seeing Baez. Again, maybe he performs and maybe he doesn't in the major leagues. But what I do know for a fact is that the cubs didn't get on base last year and that hampered them scoring runs. If they get in a situation where they are constantly getting on base and stranding guys I honestly see that as a substantial upgrade even if they aren't scoring more runs. They maybe then can try to add a piece at the deadline. On the contrary, if they repeat 2013 and don't get on base it doesn't really matter if they have Pujols in his prime because he wouldn't be driving anyone in and no one would be driving him in either.

patg006 · Feb 22, 2014

Well obviously the best case scenario is the team improves it's OBP while maintaining the same SLG.

I just don't think that trading SLG for OBP will guarantee an increase in runs.

HurricaneDij39 · Feb 22, 2014

Optimist says 75...Realist says 69...

JosMin · Feb 22, 2014

Why are you guys still arguing about this shit? You keep forgetting -- the Cubs are going 162-0

STFU already.

CSF77 · Feb 22, 2014

SLG matters most in the 4-5 spots in the order. OBA impacts 1-6. Maybe #7 if you have a good hitting 8 hitter.

They both matter but when constructing a team OBA means more potential RBI's on base.

With the Cubs they had a generally good idea when they had Dejesus, Castro, Rizzo, Sori, Schierholtz at the top. Castro had a shitty year at the plate and Dejesus was injured. But for a budget it was the right mix.

This year I hope the move past Barney and go with the guy from KC as a lead off. SH and runs a career .322 OBA. Castro is more suited as a 2 hitter vs a lead off.

I doubt they do this as if anything they like to keep Barney out there.

Outside of that it comes down to Olt at 3B overcoming last year. He has a history of having his OBA 100 points over his BA while putting up solid SLG. He screams #4 hitter if he pans out.

Lake I like as a 6 hitter. Can bunt or hit for power. Walks at about 5%. Not good to give heavier AB's to that but his hitting ability is good for RBI's.

Over all they could end up generating more RBI's due to more opertunites.

Look at 2012. Sori crushed it and they ended up with 106 losses. Next year better staff lacked RBI. Under 100 losses. So the stronger staff made a diffrence even losing Sori's SLG.

They approached it investing into the pen and rotation. I can see 70 wins if Olt hits this year and they move past Barney wasting a line up spot. Maybe a few more if Baez come up and crushes.

I wouldn't say 100 losses though. The talent is ok. But not bad. They just need to shed the low OBA types.