Jake Arrieta wants to stay

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/base...-open-to-long-term-contract.html#.U-tLEYBdVdK

How much would you sign him for?

An extension is tricky with him. He's only been great one season and the Cubs already control him for the next 3 years till he turns 31. I'd wait till 2015/2016 to work out an extension

Cubs shouldn't even go there til the very earliest 2015 off season

If you can lock him up at a great discount this offseason, I feel like you do it because of the savings.

from Linked Article said:

‘‘I like pretty much everything about Chicago and the team that’s in place now, with the guys that are coming up. It’s hard not to want to stay here.’’

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Read it and weep, Sox trolls. Even MLBers see what's starting to happen on the North Side.

Quote from Chris Archer:

“I think that the Cubs are going to be a surprise this offseason because there are guys, there are top-10 players, starting pitchers especially who want to go pitch there.”

JZsportsfan said:

Quote from Chris Archer:

“I think that the Cubs are going to be a surprise this offseason because there are guys, there are top-10 players, starting pitchers especially who want to go pitch there.”

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Yea players see that the cubs are set up nicely going forward offensively with young stud hitters who can also flash the leather a bit..

Don't surprise me that under 30 YO top starters wouldn't mind being a part of that going forward.

Players also realize that winning 1 world series with the cubs would not just make them bigger locally then the 85 bears but nationally too..

JZsportsfan said:

Quote from Chris Archer:

“I think that the Cubs are going to be a surprise this offseason because there are guys, there are top-10 players, starting pitchers especially who want to go pitch there.”

Click to expand...

Players aren't completely stupid. They know a few factors themselves. They know the talk of the Cubs system, and maybe even a bigger issue here is that they know the Cubs are a major market getting ready to spend in the near future. That's something that the Pirates, Rays, A's and a few other teams can't do even though they are a couple of steps ahead of the Cubs with players in place.

Then you can look at other larger market team like the Phillies, Angels, and even the Tigers who a couple are still competitive, but their days are certainly numbered and they will have to really spend to contend as they don't have the greatest influx of talent coming up anytime soon.

Doesn't mean the Cubs are a shoe-in to land whomever they want, but it may give them a little advantage for certain players. As usual. only time will tell.

He is going into Arb1 this year. He will be 29 in March. He will be a F/A at 32. I can see why he wants to get locked up now. When he hits F/A his projectable value is lower due to age.

IDK they could give him a 5 year deal. Give him 4 mil next year then 6 the following then 8. 12 then a 16 mil offer. Puts him at 34 YO and 46 mil richer. Could make it a even 50 with a sign bonus.

It hurts little and gives some stability to the rotation.

Captain Obvious said:

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/base...-open-to-long-term-contract.html#.U-tLEYBdVdK

How much would you sign him for?

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Could have replaced Arrieta with Shark and the article reads the same from last off season.

chibears55 said:

Players also realize that winning 1 world series with the cubs would not just make them bigger locally then the 85 bears but nationally too..

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:no:

CSF77 said:

He is going into Arb1 this year. He will be 29 in March. He will be a F/A at 32. I can see why he wants to get locked up now. When he hits F/A his projectable value is lower due to age.

IDK they could give him a 5 year deal. Give him 4 mil next year then 6 the following then 8. 12 then a 16 mil offer. Puts him at 34 YO and 46 mil richer. Could make it a even 50 with a sign bonus.

It hurts little and gives some stability to the rotation.

Click to expand...

Shouldn't the Cubs just risk it? Meaning don't extend him at all. Why risk it? To save money? As if they aren't rolling in it now how much more so when the other revenue streams kick in. So if Arrieta falls off for whatever reason, no loss and if he succeeds it just costs a few back end dollars when more dollars are available.

You dont lock him up now. It was like Wood last year when people thought he was on his way to being a solid number 2 for years. One year means very little. He comes back next year and performs then the Cubs will talk. Until then, he is cost controlled and not worth negotiations.

SilenceS said:

You dont lock him up now. It was like Wood last year when people thought he was on his way to being a solid number 2 for years. One year means very little. He comes back next year and performs then the Cubs will talk. Until then, he is cost controlled and not worth negotiations.

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Wood's FIP that year was 3.89. His ERA was 3.11. So something was off with him in the first place. BABIP: last year .248 this year .321.

Even so last winter meeting they tried to extend him and he turned them down. That is fact. He wanted to up his value first vs signing a lowball deal. Big mistake.

The problem with him is he is a cutter pitcher who is missing his location. His BABIP is wover league avg and his BB/9 went up by a full walk. That is his problem right now. Live buy the cutter die by the cutter. IMO he needs to work on location and developing a broader repertoire.

On Arrieta:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-jake-arrieta-the-new-jesse-chavez/

Is Jake Arrieta the New Jesse Chavez?
by Eno Sarris - June 19, 2014

Corey Kluber gave us Kluberization: the ditching of a bad four-seam for a better two-seamer. Dallas Keuchel gave us The Keuchel Excercise: the turfing of a bad curve for a better slider. Is Jake Arrieta following the Jesse Chavez Legacy? It certainly looks like he’s in the process of a major change in his pitching mix, and it might be what allows him to finally make good on all the promise that he’s shown to date. It should at least help him improve his command.

Jesse Chavez dropped his four-seam fastballs for a cutter, for the most part. That was important because of his iffy command. You need your fastballs for strikes, and look at his relevant career rates on the four-seamer, two-seamer, and cutter, courtesy BrooksBaseball:

Pitch Type Ball Whiffs GB%
Fourseam 34.30% 8.29% 26.64%
Sinker 32.17% 4.96% 48.18%
Cutter 29.82% 9.06% 42.46%
Looks pretty clear that the cutter is a better pitch than his four-seam fastball. And so he’s gone from using the four-seamer 30+% of the time years ago to less than 3% this year. And the cutter is up to 40%, or second-highest in baseball. And his walk rate is at a career-best.

For more evidence that Chavez is using his cutter as a fastball, let’s look at his usage per count. Fastball usage in baseball is highest in 3-0, 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, and 0-0 counts respectively. Four-seamers and two-seamers are used 65% of the time in those counts. Cutters and sliders are used 17% of the time. Chavez uses his fastball in those counts 41% of the time, and uses his cutter 34% of the time.

Let’s look at the relevant fastball rates for our new Jesse Chavez candidate, Jake Arrieta. Here they are over the last three years. (The broadcast team calls Arrieta’s slider a cutter, and so we’ll go with their name for the pitch.)

Pitch Type Ball Whiffs GB%
Fourseam 38.08% 6.95% 36.17%
Sinker 35.37% 4.79% 46.20%
Cutter 36.42% 13.20% 39.66%
It’s not as clean-cut here. The cutter does better than his four-seamer, if not by the same margins. This year, though, the margins have increased — his ball rate on the slider is down below 30%. It certainly looks like Arrieta has begun to follow the path set forth by Chavez:

Pitch Type 27-May 3-Jun 8-Jun 13-Jun 18-Jun
Fourseam 25.5% 17.3% 11.8% 23.2% 23.8%
Sinker 36.2% 27.0% 31.2% 10.1% 25.7%
Cutter 12.8% 26.0% 34.4% 43.4% 32.3%
He’s never used the cutter more than 15% for a season, and now he’s doubling that number regularly all of a sudden. Maybe we can believe his improved walk rate.

But there’s more to it than just raw usage — Arrieta was also using the pitch in fastball counts in yesterday’s seven-inning, 11-strikeout, one-walk win. His first pitch of the game was a cutter, and he threw the cutter on the first pitch against a third of the batters he saw. That’s almost three times higher than his first pitch cutter usage over the last three years (12%) and higher than the league’s first pitch cutter/slider usage as well (17.6%). That trend holds for those last five games, when Arrieta has used his cutter 24% in the fastball counts described above (57% for his fastballs). Not quite as stark as Chavez, but still different than league average.

Of course there are risks with this approach. Dan Duquette banned the cutter from the Orioles’ organization, and it looks like the “baby slider” version of the cutter might have some bad velocity outcomes. Dan Haren, the starter that’s currently throwing the most cutters in baseball, admits that he agrees that the cutter causes velocity loss. Then you have to add in injury risk. Jeff Zimmerman has found increased injury risk among heavy breaking ball users, and even if the ASMI doesn’t agree, there are others that back Zimmerman’s findings.

But, 450 innings into a career that has seen results that don’t follow his upside, and still sporting a fastball averaging nearly 94 mph, Arrieta has velocity to lose and command to gain. Now he’s got his walk rate down to a career best at least partly due to throwing his cutter more often in fastball counts, and he may have that in common with Jesse Chavez. All it took was a new approach.

Would Scott Boras even 'allow' him to sign an extension?

Come on now. He is a agent. The decision is the players.

I hope Arrieta gets traded, just for mere entertainment value.

CSF77 said:

Come on now. He is a agent. The decision is the players.

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That is true... but I think a major reason you sign with an agent like Boras is because you share the same philosophy of getting every single dollar that you can...

theberserkfury said:

That is true... but I think a major reason you sign with an agent like Boras is because you share the same philosophy of getting every single dollar that you can...

Click to expand...

After only 13 months with the Cubs, right-hander Jake Arrieta
already seems to feel pretty strongly about two things:

First, that he can be the ace of the pitching staff, even if the Cubs sign a front-line starter such as Jon Lester.

‘‘I don’t see why not,’’ Arrieta said.

And second, that he wants to stay in Chicago for the long term, even if it means potentially overriding the counsel of agent Scott Boras, who typically likes to take his best clients to free agency as early as possible.

‘‘I don’t think I’m a guy that’s going to ask for an astronomical amount of money,’’ Arrieta said Tuesday. ‘‘But I think if there’s a fair deal to be reached, I’m in
100 percent.

‘‘I like pretty much everything about Chicago and the team that’s in place now, with the guys that are coming up. It’s hard not to want to stay here.’’

Arrieta (6-4, 2.77 ERA) has been the Cubs’ de facto ace since right-hander Jeff Samardzija was traded to the Oakland Athletics on July 4.
After opening the season on the disabled list because of a sore shoulder, he has settled into an 18-start run unlike any he had in his 72 career starts before this season.

If Arrieta had enough innings to qualify for the league leaders, a level he should reach next week against the San Francisco Giants, his ERA would rank seventh in the National League.

‘‘I’ve made a lot of strides; I’ve kind of developed,’’ said Arrieta, who thinks he has, at 28, finally unlocked all the potential his stuff promised since he started climbing the best-prospects lists in 2009 and 2010. ‘‘I’ve put myself, as far as I’m concerned, into those sorts of categories. But that said, there’s still a lot of work to be done. . . . Just all the rigors that go into being in a rotation at the highest level, in a spot like that, as a No. 1 guy. I think I’ve put myself in that conversation.’’

Whether the Cubs’ pursuits of Lester, 2012 Cy Young Award winner David Price or anyone else are successful.

‘‘With the guys that we have here and the guys that are coming, we put a couple of guys like that in this rotation, it’s going to be a lot of fun to watch over the next couple of years,’’ Arrieta said.

Which brings him back to long-term thoughts and that ‘‘fair deal’’ thing. Arrieta is headed into his first winter of arbitration eligibility. That’s where left-hander Travis
Wood was last winter, coming off an All-Star season, when the Cubs raised the idea of a long-term
extension. Wood chose to wait.

‘‘I don’t think it’s out of the question,’’ Arrieta said of his willingness to sign a long-term deal. ‘‘I don’t think there’s been anything formal in the works, but this is an organization that I’ve really seen a transformation take place — from a team that was scuffling for a number of years to one now that’s really trying to compete for a world championship. And I want to be a part of that for years to come.’’

So did Samardzija. And the sides never came close to agreeing to what the other side thought was a ‘‘fair deal’’ during extension talks.

Whether anticipated payroll flexibility in coming years makes a difference from the Cubs’ side this time around or faith in the rebuilding process does from Arrieta’s side, Arrieta said having Boras for an agent doesn’t preclude a deal.

‘‘The decision comes down to what I want to do,’’ Arrieta said. ‘‘Scott is very good about giving me all the information and letting his clients make the final decision.

‘‘There’s a lot of negative talk about the way Scott does things, but I think it’s pretty clear he’s the best in the business. What it really boils down to is what I want, what the team wants, and we kind of go from there.’’

Email: gwittenmyer@suntimes.com