OT: wonder if Girardi is regretting his decision...

beckdawg · Sep 27, 2014

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/sto...game-tirade-derek-jeter-yankee-stadium-finale

It was supposed to be a festive occasion, in which Derek Jeter's New York Yankees teammates were to present their captain with gifts to express their respect and gratitude just moments before he would take the field for his final game at Yankee Stadium.

But before the gifts could be bestowed, manager Joe Girardi had a message he wished to deliver to his players.

It was not a fond farewell to Jeter, but a scathing critique of the Yankees' 2014 season, in which he expressed his disappointment with their failure to reach the playoffs for a second straight year, the first time that has happened in more than two decades.

According to clubhouse sources who were present for the critique, and backed up by interviews with more than a half-dozen players, most of whom spoke to ESPNNewYork.com off the record for fear of angering their manager, Girardi chided some players for being overweight and others for not being "hungry" enough.

pretty sure it went something like this

[video=youtube;PnIaqAsnSxU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnIaqAsnSxU[/video]

chibears55 · Sep 27, 2014

Thought about that last night myself, if he regretting it now

CSF77 · Sep 28, 2014

I doubt it. He wanted to be the manager of the Yanks and what is wrong they toss $$$ to fix it vs 3 year builds.

Tanaka gets healthy and they add Shields which pushes CC to MR match ups it has a plus impact.

The biggest thing the Yanks need to do is use F/A to fix the team while drafting strong and developing. So IMO that area needs to be cleaned up.

If the Cubs were using F/A like the market dictates then they would have been a good choice for players and managers but the ownership thinks this team is in Omaha and that market size with they way they are spending.

JZsportsfan · Sep 28, 2014

The Yankees may not be good now, but they will do everything they can to improve each and every offseason. They have a lot of age problems on that roster which is what happens when FA is your primary source of talent. Old age, means more injuries and that's what's hurt the Yanks most the past few years

beckdawg · Sep 28, 2014

Problem with the Yankees is every dollar they are over the luxury tax costs them 50% more. Even if you say their 2015 payroll is $250 mil(up $53 mil from this year), their current payroll is only $82 mil less than that and that's before you talk arbitration and FA. They are already $21 mil away from the 2014 luxury tax of $189 mil. So, it's a lock they will be over again and assuming that is the case and that they have a $250 mil max payroll that $82 mil becomes $54.6 mil. Additionally, none of the big salaries of the roughly $160 mil they already have tied up for 2015 go off the books until 2017. So, if they blow thru that $54.6 mil this year then hey aren't going to be spending anything major next year.

And keep in mind $250 mil would be a 25% increase from their 2014 opening day payroll. Even if they do go out and blow money on another Ellsbury/McCann, what happens in 2 years when those to big signings from last year are 33 like Sabathia and Teixteria are now? And then a year after that the players they sign in 2015 will probably be 33 again. Even if they keep plugging guys in this are they really getting any better? Last year they were an 85 win team. If they win tonight they will be a 84 win team. The current Yankees are a great example of how trying to win FA is a trap because unless you have limitless funds you eventually put yourself in a situation where you're on the hook for $20 mil or whatever for 6-7 years with a player who's not worth it. If you make any mistakes especially in the luxury tax era it is such a killer.

JZsportsfan · Sep 28, 2014

Yanks lose quite a bit off the payroll this year. Especially in terms of dead money. Still paying Vernon Wells, Soriano, and Rodger Clemens. Not sure what they have tied up in 2015 but I think they have room to add. Not a Scherzer/Lester type but I'm sure they will still make some good moves. But agreed, building solely through FA is a no win strategy.

chibears55 · Sep 28, 2014

i agree the Yankees wont sit on their hands and try to get better, thing is there not much out there via FA anymore for them to turn it around quickly like before.

the Yankees over the past 15-20 yrs have relied on having solid young talent come out of their system to build around and stabilize positions to where they were able to grab top FAs of need and pay them big bucks...

they haven't been lucky the past few years with adding their own top prospects except maybe Gardner and he 31 already..

all 3 OF positions are going to be 32 and older next year and signed for the next 2 to 5 years..

Catcher McCann 31 signed for the next 4 years

the IF is where they could get younger with Jeter gone and Teixera as only over 30 they have signed past this season..

then there AROD who owed 60 + over the next 3 yrs

the pitching isn't exactly put together either.. besides Tanaka who they have to see how he responds after surgery and pineda, theres not much there either..

168 MIL payroll tied up into 9 players ( including 22 mil to AROD ) , it will be interesting to see how they rebuild that roster....

beckdawg · Sep 28, 2014

JZsportsfan said:
Yanks lose quite a bit off the payroll this year. Especially in terms of dead money. Still paying Vernon Wells, Soriano, and Rodger Clemens. Not sure what they have tied up in 2015 but I think they have room to add. Not a Scherzer/Lester type but I'm sure they will still make some good moves. But agreed, building solely through FA is a no win strategy.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html

Not really. Their opening day payroll this year was $197,230,609 and they have $168.768 mil committed toward 2015. You're talking about a difference of $28.5 mil and their losing Kuroda who was supposed to be their #3, Drew/Jeter who were their starting SS's, Headley who was their starting 3B after the trade(though Arod would be back if they want him), McCarthy who would arguably be their #4, and Ichiro. You're talking probably $25 mil being tied up in a #3/4 starter they need to add considering Josh Johnson, Feldman and Harren were roughly $10 mil a piece. Between Wells and Soriano they were only paying around $7 mil anyways. Unless they go cubs style and try to reclaim some pitchers i find it hard to believe their going to fill those losses for less than $28.5 mil and that's prior to talking about getting better.

Also, one thing to remember is Tanaka has a 4 year opt out clause so if they aren't good the next two years it could opt out and that would cause them to lose their best young player currently.

CSF77 · Sep 28, 2014

beckdawg said:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html

Not really. Their opening day payroll this year was $197,230,609 and they have $168.768 mil committed toward 2015. You're talking about a difference of $28.5 mil and their losing Kuroda who was supposed to be their #3, Drew/Jeter who were their starting SS's, Headley who was their starting 3B after the trade(though Arod would be back if they want him), McCarthy who would arguably be their #4, and Ichiro. You're talking probably $25 mil being tied up in a #3/4 starter they need to add considering Josh Johnson, Feldman and Harren were roughly $10 mil a piece. Between Wells and Soriano they were only paying around $7 mil anyways. Unless they go cubs style and try to reclaim some pitchers i find it hard to believe their going to fill those losses for less than $28.5 mil and that's prior to talking about getting better.

Also, one thing to remember is Tanaka has a 4 year opt out clause so if they aren't good the next two years it could opt out and that would cause them to lose their best young player currently.

That is still enough to sign Shields as a #2 ahead of CC. I wouldn't count them out and they get A-Rod back.

beckdawg · Sep 29, 2014

CSF77 said:
That is still enough to sign Shields as a #2 ahead of CC. I wouldn't count them out and they get A-Rod back.

The problem is you're banking on a FA not being a disappointment when historically it's a crap shoot. Even players who play well at the start of the contract can often become burdens later on. And while they get Arod back he's going to be 39 and will not have played for the better part of 2 years. If the Rays and Red Sox had been any good this year would they even have got to 80 wins? The added 5.9 WAR in McCann and Elsbury and it did next to nothing record wise from last year. I see no reason a similar spending spree will make them better. Even if they get Shields they lost their best pitcher in Hiroki Kuroda to FA. If they sign both then that's likely all they have to spend in terms of high priced FAs.

CSF77 · Sep 29, 2014

beckdawg said:
The problem is you're banking on a FA not being a disappointment when historically it's a crap shoot. Even players who play well at the start of the contract can often become burdens later on. And while they get Arod back he's going to be 39 and will not have played for the better part of 2 years. If the Rays and Red Sox had been any good this year would they even have got to 80 wins? The added 5.9 WAR in McCann and Elsbury and it did next to nothing record wise from last year. I see no reason a similar spending spree will make them better. Even if they get Shields they lost their best pitcher in Hiroki Kuroda to FA. If they sign both then that's likely all they have to spend in terms of high priced FAs.

You are not considering they should have Tanaka back who was a legit ace before going down. That is why I said CC becomes a MOR which he is now.

Not to mention That team is not co dependent on 1 player to be good. They could retain Headley and move A-Rod back to SS now.

First I would have Jose Pirela start at 2B: wOBA: .388 in 25 PA but in AAA: .355 wOBA. I would ride that one out to infuse some youth.

Martin Prado they are on the hook for 22 mil. Went on 60 day with AB strain. I would concider him a 3B. wOBA was .383 in 137 AB's.

Those 2 become cost effective answers in the IF. A-Rod you move back to SS which is his natural spot.
1B Mark Teixeira: .316 wOBA. meh.... he needs to up his game.

OF:
Gardner: .331 wOBA
Ellsbury: .327 wOBA
Beltran: .310 wOBA.

Catcher: McCann .306 wOBA

I would invest into a every day player and use Prado to move around the diamond as a sub so the player he is replacing can DH that day to keep the age factor to a min. Guys like A-Rod and Beltrain should be getting the lion share for the DH duties.

It almost makes sense for them to retain Headley .347 wOBA is not bad on this team. Add to it he plays GG 3B and is a SH.

Over all if they keep working on developing the farm while funding the MLB team IE using F/A to crutch up the team until the system is healthy again then it should have minimum impact.

The problem is they let the farm go to crap like Hendry did with the Cubs; but with time and quality scouting and development that can be fixed. Cubs went 100% that direction while putting up a shitter of a team.

beckdawg · Sep 29, 2014

Way too many ifs there to count on anything. You're counting on a 39 year old Arod who's not played in 2 years to be decent. You're counting on a 35 year old Teixeria who's not been good in 3 years to give you something. You're counting on a 38 year old Beltran to give you more than he did this year. You're counting on a 34 year old Sabathia who's had a 5.28 ERA this year and a 4.78 ERA the year prior with roughly equivalent FIPs to give you something. Prado will be 31. Young will be 31. Headley will be 31. Gardner will be 31. Ellsbury will be 31. McCann will be 31. Roberts will be 37. Kelly Johnson will be 33. Stephen Drew will be 32. Basically every position player who gave them major PAs is at the end of their "prime" or already past it.

I'd honestly consider taking a proposition bet right now on who wins more games next year between the cubs and yanks. I don't even think the cubs will make a major improvement with it likely being something in the 75-80 win range. But I can see the yankees falling off a cliff next year. Even if you say they bring back Headley, he's likely to get a ARam like deal of 3 yrs/$36M. Shields is probably going to cost you $15 mil a season if not more. For the sake of argument let's call those two $30 mil toward next season. The highest opening day payroll in Yankee history was in 2013 for $228,106,125(far lower luxury tax penalty that year btw) which is about $60 mil from what they already have committed prior to FA, luxury tax and arbitration. Pineda is the only major arb case so let's call that $10 mil to cover all arb cases. That puts them at $208 mil. You're probably talking $10-15 mil alone to fill out your bench and bullpen plus org depth in AAA in case of starter injuries.

I just don't see it. Not to mention the fact that their top 3 starters(Pineda, Tanaka and Sabathia) all have injury concerns going into this coming season not to mention Arod himself. None of the players they have outside of possibly Tanaka are going to carry a team. Ellsbury is a decent second or third star for positional players. Headly is probably a 6 or 7 hitter on a good team. McCann is a decent catcher but catchers aren't supposed to carry a team offensively. One injury to Ellsbury who himself has had concerns in the past and you're probably talking about a pretty crappy team. To me it's will be a case of them rearranging players who essential make them no better than they are now while simultaneously costing them a crap load of money.

chibears55 · Sep 29, 2014

beckdawg said:
Way too many ifs there to count on anything. You're counting on a 39 year old Arod who's not played in 2 years to be decent. You're counting on a 35 year old Teixeria who's not been good in 3 years to give you something. You're counting on a 38 year old Beltran to give you more than he did this year. You're counting on a 34 year old Sabathia who's had a 5.28 ERA this year and a 4.78 ERA the year prior with roughly equivalent FIPs to give you something. Prado will be 31. Young will be 31. Headley will be 31. Gardner will be 31. Ellsbury will be 31. McCann will be 31. Roberts will be 37. Kelly Johnson will be 33. Stephen Drew will be 32. Basically every position player who gave them major PAs is at the end of their "prime" or already past it.

I'd honestly consider taking a proposition bet right now on who wins more games next year between the cubs and yanks. I don't even think the cubs will make a major improvement with it likely being something in the 75-80 win range. But I can see the yankees falling off a cliff next year. Even if you say they bring back Headley, he's likely to get a ARam like deal of 3 yrs/$36M. Shields is probably going to cost you $15 mil a season if not more. For the sake of argument let's call those two $30 mil toward next season. The highest opening day payroll in Yankee history was in 2013 for $228,106,125(far lower luxury tax penalty that year btw) which is about $60 mil from what they already have committed prior to FA, luxury tax and arbitration. Pineda is the only major arb case so let's call that $10 mil to cover all arb cases. That puts them at $208 mil. You're probably talking $10-15 mil alone to fill out your bench and bullpen plus org depth in AAA in case of starter injuries.

I just don't see it. Not to mention the fact that their top 3 starters(Pineda, Tanaka and Sabathia) all have injury concerns going into this coming season not to mention Arod himself. None of the players they have outside of possibly Tanaka are going to carry a team. Ellsbury is a decent second or third star for positional players. Headly is probably a 6 or 7 hitter on a good team. McCann is a decent catcher but catchers aren't supposed to carry a team offensively. One injury to Ellsbury who himself has had concerns in the past and you're probably talking about a pretty crappy team. To me it's will be a case of them rearranging players who essential make them no better than they are now while simultaneously costing them a crap load of money.

Yankees seem to be in a similar situation as the 10/11 cubs except a bit older and more expensive...
not sure how their system is and if they have top prospects ready to make a jump but it looks as if their going to be counting on some baseball old arms and legs to carry them next year..

as far as AROD goes, i have a feeling there going to be some kind of deal made between MLB, Yankees, and him for him to step down and retire..
if not and he returns to NY, which will be a clubhouse, fan and media disaster for the team, i just don't see him being any better then what Jeter gave them this year.

SilenceS · Sep 29, 2014

chibears55 said:
Yankees seem to be in a similar situation as the 10/11 cubs except a bit older and more expensive...
not sure how their system is and if they have top prospects ready to make a jump but it looks as if their going to be counting on some baseball old arms and legs to carry them next year..

as far as AROD goes, i have a feeling there going to be some kind of deal made between MLB, Yankees, and him for him to step down and retire..
if not and he returns to NY, which will be a clubhouse, fan and media disaster for the team, i just don't see him being any better then what Jeter gave them this year.

He will play for the Yankees. The Yankees wont release him. They owe to much money. They are hoping he gets injured so they can claim their insurance policy on him. A Rod is really fucking them. Also, ARod plans to play. They say he has been 3 times a day workouts

nwfisch · Sep 29, 2014

I'm betting he doesn't regret 2009.

JZsportsfan · Sep 29, 2014

nwfisch said:
I'm betting he doesn't regret 2009.

He still would have won it in 2009...

CSF77 · Sep 29, 2014

Worst case he just DH's and they sign Headley full time 3B. Stephen Drew is up for F/A for SS.

With a payroll that can get into the 250 mil area and they have....I never count that team out.

Home run for them is signing Sandoval for 3B, Drew for SS. Then Bonifacio for 2B.

Line up becomes:
CF Ellsbury
LF Gardner
DH A-Rod
1B Tex
RF Beltrain
3B Sandoval
C McCann
SS Drew
2B Bonfacio

Not to mention having 2 SH's gives line up flexibility.

I would take a flyer on Aaron Harang then. Dude soaks IP. Maybe Beckett after on a buy low to fill out the rotation.

CSF77 · Sep 29, 2014

I'd honestly consider taking a proposition bet right now on who wins more games next year between the cubs and yanks. I don't even think the cubs will make a major improvement with it likely being something in the 75-80 win range. But I can see the yankees falling off a cliff next year. Even if you say they bring back Headley, he's likely to get a ARam like deal of 3 yrs/$36M. Shields is probably going to cost you $15 mil a season if not more. For the sake of argument let's call those two $30 mil toward next season. The highest opening day payroll in Yankee history was in 2013 for $228,106,125(far lower luxury tax penalty that year btw) which is about $60 mil from what they already have committed prior to FA, luxury tax and arbitration. Pineda is the only major arb case so let's call that $10 mil to cover all arb cases. That puts them at $208 mil. You're probably talking $10-15 mil alone to fill out your bench and bullpen plus org depth in AAA in case of starter injuries.

It is almost a good bet. Cubs could be worse or better next year as it is going to become more dependent on players in development vs buy low rentals. Higher potential but higher growing pains.

I don't expect them to splash the F/A in position players. They really do not need to. Now SP is another story. If they do not take a plunge here this team will sit 65-70 again.

If they get 2 SP and Baez adjusts this team could become play off worthy. Alcantara it me is a add in not a core. Any adjustment he makes will help but he is not an impact bat like Soler/Rizzo/Baez/Bryant. I would rather they keep status que with Cog as the lead off and have Castro hitting 2. Then use Alcantara lower in the order to split up some RH bats. He still has some pop in his bat theat would be in a RBI spot then.

Papa Wheelie · Oct 4, 2014

I was surprised he didn't take the Cubs job myself, especially since his wife was from Chicago. He could have been a major hero winning in Chicago. I sure do hope he regrets it cuz I think he made a mistake.

Zvbxrpl · Oct 4, 2014

The most historic franchise in baseball where he's won the world series as a manager and thrice as a player for them?

I don't think he's worried or has regrets. The Yankees are the Yankees. They won't be down for much longer.

Lets also look at the firing time, last year. Yankees were expected to be competitive, though many were 50-50 on them making the postseason. The Cubs, though the future is bright, trotted out a dud team this year as they played for the draft pick and experience for cornerstone players moving forward Rizzo, Castro, Arrieta, and some bullpen guys.

Same thing is going to happen in 2015, and maybe 2016. And after this year, I like Rick, he's done a heck of a job improving some of these guys (as has Bill Mueller/Bosio).

Also, Girardi is the second highest paid manager to Socia at 4.5 mil that can go up (Socia is over 5), and while I can't find Renteria's salary, I'm willing to wager it isn't that much......and would the cubs have offered the 4 years, 20 mil to match or beat that, which I couldn't see happening.

Bottom line is the Yankees wanted to keep him and kept him. Cubs got Ricky. So far Ricky has done enough in my books to merit a second year as manager.

Though I wish Minnesota waited another year or two before firing Gardenhire. When the core is up and producing, that would be a guy I want......

OT: wonder if Girardi is regretting his decision...

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