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  1. #1
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    Default Is fantasy football mostly luck?

    I think it's 85% luck. As much as spreadsheets and such say otherwise; none of us are in the meeting room. So we don't know what the coaches are game planning. Your stud WR could be a decoy, get injured, defense makes good adjustments, etc.

    Thoughts?

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  3. #2
    Richard Cranium ursamajor's Avatar
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    No. It is probability and maximizing it. It comes down to touches.

    I have been playing FF for 3 years now. My first year I played in 2 leagues, made the playoffs in both and won it all in 1. Last year I played in 1 league only (12 teamer), and made it to the championship game and lost.

    This year, I am in 3. My records are 6-0, 5-1, and 4-2. I have never been at .500 or lower.

    My drafting philosophy:

    Never draft a position other than RB in rounds 1 and 2 (on my 6-0 team, I took a RB in rounds 1, 2, 3.)

    Never never never draft a QB before round 5, if at all(Rivers and Cutler are the second and 4th highest scoring QB in football right now. Both were available late, or on waivers. Drafting a QB round 4 or sooner pretty much will cement your team as being your league's bitch)

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    Quote Originally Posted by ursamajor View Post
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    No. It is probability and maximizing it. It comes down to touches.

    I have been playing FF for 3 years now. My first year I played in 2 leagues, made the playoffs in both and won it all in 1. Last year I played in 1 league only (12 teamer), and made it to the championship game and lost.

    This year, I am in 3. My records are 6-0, 5-1, and 4-2. I have never been at .500 or lower.

    My drafting philosophy:

    Never draft a position other than RB in rounds 1 and 2 (on my 6-0 team, I took a RB in rounds 1, 2, 3.)

    Never never never draft a QB before round 5, if at all(Rivers and Cutler are the second and 4th highest scoring QB in football right now. Both were available late, or on waivers. Drafting a QB round 4 or sooner pretty much will cement your team as being your league's bitch)
    I'm guessing you didn't draft Adrian Peterson.
    They pit the lifers against the new boy and the young against the old. The black against the white. Everything they do is to keep us in our place.


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    Richard Cranium ursamajor's Avatar
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    I had a 1st overall in 1 league. I took Shady, as I prefer dual threat backs. In my 3 leagues, I have Bernard, Foster, Forte, Bradshaw, Lynch, and Morris. Bernard, Foster, and Forte have been my best assets. In my 6-0 league I have both Bernard and Foster. They have placed me firmly as my league's #1 scorer.

    And no, I didn't draft AP

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    Message Board Hero ijustposthere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ursamajor View Post
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    No. It is probability and maximizing it. It comes down to touches.

    I have been playing FF for 3 years now. My first year I played in 2 leagues, made the playoffs in both and won it all in 1. Last year I played in 1 league only (12 teamer), and made it to the championship game and lost.

    This year, I am in 3. My records are 6-0, 5-1, and 4-2. I have never been at .500 or lower.

    My drafting philosophy:

    Never draft a position other than RB in rounds 1 and 2 (on my 6-0 team, I took a RB in rounds 1, 2, 3.)

    Never never never draft a QB before round 5, if at all(Rivers and Cutler are the second and 4th highest scoring QB in football right now. Both were available late, or on waivers. Drafting a QB round 4 or sooner pretty much will cement your team as being your league's bitch)
    I'd say luck has a lot to do with it, but I do believe you increase your probability of victory by recognizing certain trends. Also, I used to be with you on the dominant RB theory, but I have since amended it to great success. I pretty much always try to get one round 1 and try to get a 2nd one in 2 or 3 if available, but I personally love the RB, WR, RB or RB, WR, WR setup depending on what's available. I don't go in rigid, I let the draft make my choice. Last year I went Charles, D. Thomas, Julio, then got Gore in the 4th. This year i went Forte, Jeffrey, Bernard. One thing I do agree with is no QBs prior to round 5. I got Ryan this year in 5 and Rivers in 10. Last year I grabbed Luck in 5.
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    Hidden Content Originally Posted by BuddyRyans46 Hidden Content
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    to all of the people calling me a fecal alligator.....i will accept your apologies after this Friday's presser. I trust my sources.
    Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll be among the stars. Proceed to the next level.

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  7. #6
    Richard Cranium ursamajor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ijustposthere View Post
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    I'd say luck has a lot to do with it, but I do believe you increase your probability of victory by recognizing certain trends. Also, I used to be with you on the dominant RB theory, but I have since amended it to great success. I pretty much always try to get one round 1 and try to get a 2nd one in 2 or 3 if available, but I personally love the RB, WR, RB or RB, WR, WR setup depending on what's available. I don't go in rigid, I let the draft make my choice. Last year I went Charles, D. Thomas, Julio, then got Gore in the 4th. This year i went Forte, Jeffrey, Bernard. One thing I do agree with is no QBs prior to round 5. I got Ryan this year in 5 and Rivers in 10. Last year I grabbed Luck in 5.
    Meh, if I can't put a legit, high usage starting RB in my flex spot, I am not happy.

    I go heavy on RB, and will trade to the guy who is WR rich and 0-3

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    Message Board Hero ijustposthere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ursamajor View Post
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    Meh, if I can't put a legit, high usage starting RB in my flex spot, I am not happy.

    I go heavy on RB, and will trade to the guy who is WR rich and 0-3

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    LOL. Well, I'm not saying it's a bad thing, I've just been burned by RBs more often than any other position. The top guy is the most important. If you hit on that top RB pick, it's easier to have a balanced team. If I feel the WR in the 2nd round is more valuable than the RBs available, I will not hesitate to grab one. My teams scoring have gone through the roof since I adopted a more balanced approach. To each his own though, no reason to change what works for you.
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    Hidden Content Originally Posted by BuddyRyans46 Hidden Content
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    to all of the people calling me a fecal alligator.....i will accept your apologies after this Friday's presser. I trust my sources.
    Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll be among the stars. Proceed to the next level.

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  9. #8
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    People don't trade in my league so trying to acquire a WR is difficult.
    They pit the lifers against the new boy and the young against the old. The black against the white. Everything they do is to keep us in our place.


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  11. #9
    Richard Cranium ursamajor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ijustposthere View Post
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    LOL. Well, I'm not saying it's a bad thing, I've just been burned by RBs more often than any other position. The top guy is the most important. If you hit on that top RB pick, it's easier to have a balanced team. If I feel the WR in the 2nd round is more valuable than the RBs available, I will not hesitate to grab one. My teams scoring have gone through the roof since I adopted a more balanced approach. To each his own though, no reason to change what works for you.
    Undoubtedly, other players draft will try to get creative, and do something hilarious, like draft a TE in the 1st rd. So that pushes the talent down lower by a spot. I love being in leagues with players like this, because it lets you draft more talent than you have a right to

    I have my own means of drafting, it has worked well for me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ursamajor View Post
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    Undoubtedly, other players draft will try to get creative, and do something hilarious, like draft a TE in the 1st rd. So that pushes the talent down lower by a spot. I love being in leagues with players like this, because it lets you draft more talent than you have a right to

    I have my own means of drafting, it has worked well for me.

    Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk
    Haha, you and me both. I laugh my ass off at some picks. I like when people take defenses and kickers early too. Hell, I go through an entire draft without taking either if I feel like it. I've learned that one kicker and one defense emerges every year on the waiver wire.
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    Hidden Content Originally Posted by BuddyRyans46 Hidden Content
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    to all of the people calling me a fecal alligator.....i will accept your apologies after this Friday's presser. I trust my sources.
    Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll be among the stars. Proceed to the next level.

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  13. #11
    Oh I member! Scoot26's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ursamajor View Post
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    Undoubtedly, other players draft will try to get creative, and do something hilarious, like draft a TE in the 1st rd. So that pushes the talent down lower by a spot. I love being in leagues with players like this, because it lets you draft more talent than you have a right to

    I have my own means of drafting, it has worked well for me.

    Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk
    This is true.. I had the #9 pick this year in a 10 team league...I benefited from knowing the guy at #10 would just keep drafting by the draftboard rankings. Only after he had two QBs and eneded a D and kicker did he not draft that way. Can't really say it worked out that much to my benefit though. While I started 3-0 and am now 5-1...I won those first three games not scoring a lot of points..the other teams just scored less. I'm a hawk for FA pickups and have managed to make a trade.

    I broke your cardinal sin by drafting Peyton in the 2nd. I drafted Green at #9 and he's missed time due to injury. My strategy was to go WR/WR (Green and Marshall was my plan) but the guy who picked after me was a Peyton fan. I guess I was looking at that as good trade bait. But he ended up with Luck. He did offer me in Week 2 Luck, Lynch, Hilton, and M. Bennett for Peyton, Green, Ellington, and Fred Jackson, but then retracted his offer (which he commonly does...he wants to trade, but always pulls back on his offers and rejects offers you give him).

    The guy who is in first (also 5-1) drafted Graham-Murray-Brown-R. Jennings. He also has Josh Gordon sitting on his bench.
    They pit the lifers against the new boy and the young against the old. The black against the white. Everything they do is to keep us in our place.


  14. #12
    Oh I member! Scoot26's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ijustposthere View Post
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    Haha, you and me both. I laugh my ass off at some picks. I like when people take defenses and kickers early too. Hell, I go through an entire draft without taking either if I feel like it. I've learned that one kicker and one defense emerges every year on the waiver wire.
    I don't understand the early taker of defenses either. The guy who is #1 in my league currently mostly due to the great starts Antonio Brown, Murray, and Matt Ryan had... drafted Seattle in the 10th round. Their defense hasn't exactly played up to par to numerous other defenses. I also laugh because whoever drafts a defense first causes a run on defenses then among the rest of the group. I can say only the guy who panicked that round and took NE Defense has worked out for him.

    I currently stream defenses..In past years I usually spent the first 6 weeks trying to find that perfect scoring D on the waivers. This year I'm mostly going with whoever is playing Jacksonville if I can help it.
    They pit the lifers against the new boy and the young against the old. The black against the white. Everything they do is to keep us in our place.


  15. #13
    1-888-NEED-HIM brett05's Avatar
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    I think there's luck in it, but so it is in the NFL as well to a level. You gotta make sure your GM drafts the right guys and signs the right FAs. in Fantasy you don;t have to worry about play calling so a good GM makes the difference. I've been in a pretty competitive league for 9 years now and missed the super bowl once. Another guy in the league has never missed the playoffs. Good GM matters a lot in fantasy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scoot26 View Post
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    I don't understand the early taker of defenses either. The guy who is #1 in my league currently mostly due to the great starts Antonio Brown, Murray, and Matt Ryan had... drafted Seattle in the 10th round. Their defense hasn't exactly played up to par to numerous other defenses. I also laugh because whoever drafts a defense first causes a run on defenses then among the rest of the group. I can say only the guy who panicked that round and took NE Defense has worked out for him.

    I currently stream defenses..In past years I usually spent the first 6 weeks trying to find that perfect scoring D on the waivers. This year I'm mostly going with whoever is playing Jacksonville if I can help it.
    LOL, yeah I love the run on defenses. In my league this year it started in round 6. I was laughing my ass off. 2 in round 6, 1 in 7, and a shitload in 8. I think 3 teams didn't have a D by the end of round 10. During that time I got Reed, Wayne, Rudolph, Rivers, Lamar Miller, and DeAndre Hopkins before I went defense in 13.
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    Hidden Content Originally Posted by BuddyRyans46 Hidden Content
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    to all of the people calling me a fecal alligator.....i will accept your apologies after this Friday's presser. I trust my sources.
    Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll be among the stars. Proceed to the next level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by brett05 View Post
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    I think there's luck in it, but so it is in the NFL as well to a level. You gotta make sure your GM drafts the right guys and signs the right FAs. in Fantasy you don;t have to worry about play calling so a good GM makes the difference. I've been in a pretty competitive league for 9 years now and missed the super bowl once. Another guy in the league has never missed the playoffs. Good GM matters a lot in fantasy.
    Yeah definitely luck involved. Last year was the best team I ever put together and it was getting tore up by big injuries. I lost Julio Jones, then Gronk, then Jordan Reed, then Mayo, then Alonso, but I was still killing everyone. One unlucky bounce in the championship game and I end up losing even though I scored 118 or some shit like that. Sucks too, because I had an incredible comeback to take the lead by the slimmest of margins. If SF recovers that onside kick last year in week 16, I would've been $500 richer. My second best team also suffered big injuries in the first round of the playoffs and I got bounced. Those are the breaks. I make my bones recognizing trends though and jumping on players/Ds before they break out though. Last year was KCs D and Keenan Allen. Hoping I find that guy this year, maybe Jarvis Landry.
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    Hidden Content Originally Posted by BuddyRyans46 Hidden Content
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    to all of the people calling me a fecal alligator.....i will accept your apologies after this Friday's presser. I trust my sources.
    Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll be among the stars. Proceed to the next level.

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  18. #16
    Richard Cranium ursamajor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scoot26 View Post
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    This is true.. I had the #9 pick this year in a 10 team league...I benefited from knowing the guy at #10 would just keep drafting by the draftboard rankings. Only after he had two QBs and eneded a D and kicker did he not draft that way. Can't really say it worked out that much to my benefit though. While I started 3-0 and am now 5-1...I won those first three games not scoring a lot of points..the other teams just scored less. I'm a hawk for FA pickups and have managed to make a trade.

    I broke your cardinal sin by drafting Peyton in the 2nd. I drafted Green at #9 and he's missed time due to injury. My strategy was to go WR/WR (Green and Marshall was my plan) but the guy who picked after me was a Peyton fan. I guess I was looking at that as good trade bait. But he ended up with Luck. He did offer me in Week 2 Luck, Lynch, Hilton, and M. Bennett for Peyton, Green, Ellington, and Fred Jackson, but then retracted his offer (which he commonly does...he wants to trade, but always pulls back on his offers and rejects offers you give him).

    The guy who is in first (also 5-1) drafted Graham-Murray-Brown-R. Jennings. He also has Josh Gordon sitting on his bench.
    Well, it worked out for you so far...I took Rivers on waivers (as I did last season) he is 2nd to only Luck, and is out scoring Peyton...

    All I can do is point to my success, w/my method. But I win early and often employing it.

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    Message Board Hero ijustposthere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ursamajor View Post
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    Well, it worked out for you so far...I took Rivers on waivers (as I did last season) he is 2nd to only Luck, and is out scoring Peyton...

    All I can do is point to my success, w/my method. But I win early and often employing it.

    Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk
    My team always starts off slow even though I score a shitload. It's crazy the buzz-saws I always seem to go against the first 3-4 weeks. This year I was #2 in scoring and 1-3 LOL. It tends to eventually even out though. As long as my scoring is consistent, I'm never really concerned. I'm averaging 112 a week, even with an 86 point dud in there, up to 3-3 now.
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    to all of the people calling me a fecal alligator.....i will accept your apologies after this Friday's presser. I trust my sources.
    Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll be among the stars. Proceed to the next level.

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    CCS Donator Run the ball's Avatar
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    Is poker 85% luck, of course not. There is luck involved, especially when it comes to injuries and such, however knowing what you're doing and having a solid strategy goes a long way.


    Also, it seems like you guys need be in more competitive leagues, it also greatly improves the experience, IMO.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Run the ball View Post
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    Is poker 85% luck, of course not. There is luck involved, especially when it comes to injuries and such, however knowing what you're doing and having a solid strategy goes a long way.


    Also, it seems like you guys need be in more competitive leagues, it also greatly improves the experience, IMO.
    Yeah, they get insane. I haven't been able to afford it the past couple seasons, and since we had a falling out with some friends + more difficult schedules, we lost close to half of our yahoo league from two years ago. Those were insanely competitive, and a ton of fun. The guys that we found to replace them aren't nearly as good, and don't do much talking either. I love the trash talk.
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    to all of the people calling me a fecal alligator.....i will accept your apologies after this Friday's presser. I trust my sources.
    Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll be among the stars. Proceed to the next level.

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    1-888-NEED-HIM brett05's Avatar
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    Haven't had a drop in years.
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    Message Board Hero ijustposthere's Avatar
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    Yeah, it was an unfortunate situation. Unavoidable on our part (my friend and I run the league). As a result of the falling out we lost him, his wife, his brother-in-law, and one of his buddies. My cousin also happened to drop out because travel makes it difficult for him to keep up.
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    to all of the people calling me a fecal alligator.....i will accept your apologies after this Friday's presser. I trust my sources.
    Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll be among the stars. Proceed to the next level.

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    I play draftkings and I had the slots for Mon and tonight's game.

    I need help.

    I have 1 RB slot and 1 Flex slot open. I pretty much am stacked w patriot WRS Bc we know the jets suck.

    I don't know if I should play Ivory and Verren in slot( I had Gore Monday); or if I should bank on Vereen and Branden Bolden to split carries?

    I don't know if I wanna roll w a RB by committee for day or just use Ivory and Vereen.

    Any suggestions?

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