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TL1961
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Wonder why they project Washington to be worse than last year. I am guessing this was pre-Scherzer?
beckdawg
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That's not really the way projections work. Putting this quite crudely, projections always trend toward average. Consider for a moment that 23 of the 30 teams are +/- 5 win of .500. They are almost always going to be overly conservative.
brett05
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That was funny
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My favorite teams
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Whats funny is this is like Vegas. They think there is bias. There is no bias just straight numbers.
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Also, I am not saying the Cubs will but these systems are based off numbers and no human decision.
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Pirates Cubs 1 game playoff at wrigley
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K Wood comes out the retirement to the save and the W?
TL1961
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What's not the way they work?
That the Nats would be projected to win more with Scherzer than without?
I understand they base much off run differential and where a team "should be" based on that vs. where they truly were. i.e. Two teams both +100 in run differential, one is 20 games over .500, the other is 5 games over. They expect these teams to be tied.
I don't the details behind all the 2015 projections. It would be based on players' numbers and more, no?
If they are conservative with every team's projection, the wins wouldn't equal the losses.
TL1961
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Pirates finish a game ahead and we host the playoff?
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vegas is totally baiting. dont be naive. a team like the cubs that have a national following with the optimism there is no way vegas doesnt take advantage of the chicago market. if anyone knows how sports betting works it would be me.
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so the computers take into account sample sizes and no sizes at the mlb level? thats awesome.
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Holy fuvk!
JZsportsfan
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:cubspalm:
Supply and demand
I hope I don't have to explain this in a 3rd thread
C'mon people this isn't difficult and it isn't Vegas "taking advantage of the Chicago market" lmao
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My point which I probably was poor at getting across was that individual players have relatively small impacts on projections and that projections tend to be lower for good teams and higher for bad teams because they shift toward the middle. If you want to see what I mean look at individual players and their streamer projections. If you look at an MVP candidate from last season you're probably going to get a lessor version of the season he had as a projection.
For example take McCutchen. Last season his actual performance was .314/.410/.542. The past 3 seasons he's hit .327 and .317 plus the numbers i just listed. Streamer has him hitting .301/.393/.504 which would be the worst season for 6.2 fWAR which would be the worst season he's had out of the past 3.
beckdawg
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Vegas' goal isn't to "bait" anyone. Their goal is to get an equal split of money on both sides of betting. They win by taking a percentage off the top of all bets. In the case of people who lose they get all the money. In the case of people who win they don't double their money because Vegas gets a cut. That's a giant misnomer about people using Vegas to mean anything. The only way they screw up is set the line really far to either side and aren't able to adjust the line enough in time for it to balance.
brett05
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Good thing I wasn't trying to be. :doh:
brett05
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Mostly right, it is S and D. Cub Fans always bet on their team thus driving down their odds below true value. No one is ever going to hit the Cubs for 50 to 100-1 because Cubs fans no matter how bad their team is, bet them and bet them hard.
TL1961
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I recall several years ago when two related casinos set the Super Bowl line differently. One was 12/5, the other 13.5. So if a person bet both, say $100 on each, and the spread was exactly 13, they would win both. If the spread was not, they would lose $10. (The 10% on one bet.)
I remember discussing with my friend in Vegas, and determining that it was the same as if they posted a 20-1 bet that the favorite would win by exactly 13. Had they done that, it would hardly get any attention. But "accidentally" setting the lines differently had bettors lined up all day. So, I guess that could be baiting. They stood to lose if that 13 had happened. But they drew in a lot more $.
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