IST: Cubs @ Pirates

Well it looks like the Pirates only played for CSF77's pride in the 9th inning.

Cubs win 101!

For a guy who's offensive struggles were supposed to be his down side, Almora hitting .290/.309/.477 as a rookie is a really positive sign. Obviously he needs to up his walks some but the more impressive thing is he's actually hitting for some decent power.

beckdawg said:

For a guy who's offensive struggles were supposed to be his down side, Almora hitting .290/.309/.477 as a rookie is a really positive sign. Obviously he needs to up his walks some but the more impressive thing is he's actually hitting for some decent power.

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Just might give him an opportunity to go into ST as his job to lose for starting CF

Wonder if they will send him to winterball get more AB in to work on being more selective

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beckdawg said:

For a guy who's offensive struggles were supposed to be his down side, Almora hitting .290/.309/.477 as a rookie is a really positive sign. Obviously he needs to up his walks some but the more impressive thing is he's actually hitting for some decent power.

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He needs to get his walks up a lot, not just "some". The .290/.309 slash line is nice from a hitting perspective, but not good at all from a strictly OBP standpoint. What it means is when a player is slumping, they provide zero production versus a player who can take some pitches.

chibears55 said:

Just might give him an opportunity to go into ST as his job to lose for starting CF

Wonder if they will send him to winterball get more AB in to work on being more selective

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I am not sure winter ball is the place to learn to be selective. Len is always talking about he wont be surprised if Almora is on the post season roster, at least the first series when they will probably have 11 pitchers, then switch for a pitcher for the 7 game series.

Parade_Rain said:

He needs to get his walks up a lot, not just "some". The .290/.309 slash line is nice from a hitting perspective, but not good at all from a strictly OBP standpoint. What it means is when a player is slumping, they provide zero production versus a player who can take some pitches.

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I mean it depends on what you're expecting out of him. Obviously yeah you'd love a guy in the .340 OBP range but there's only 73 players in the league right now who have that. For me it's more about being a usable starter. Right now a "league average" hitter is at .259/.326/.425. He's only 17 points off that in terms of OBP which equates to like 2-3 points in walk rate over a full season.

As for providing nothing when slumping, the type of hitter he is doesn't really slump in the traditional sense because 85% of the time he's up at bat the ball ends up in play. Ultimately, for players like that it's more about the BABIP gods. However, I would argue that players who are putting the ball in play are more valuable than high walk rate guys when both are slumping because outs in play can advance runners and become sacrifices. For example, Heyward this year despite hitting fairly terribly still has a 8.8% walk rate which is pretty decent and I doubt many would really sing his praises. Conversely, even if you get an out as a high contact type you might end up with a sacrifice and you also make the defense actually do something. That can cause errors and such.

Also, I haven't dug into the data at all but I'd be inclined to believe that Almora over time might turn into one of those pesky hitters who just continually wastes pitches until he gets something he likes. That's your more traditional "lead off hitter" before OBP became in vogue. And if he does become that, even if you're slumping so long as you make a pitcher work you do damage by getting into their bullpen sooner. Given his extremely high contact rate it seems reasonable to believe he has the hand eye coordination for that.

Anyways, if he is around league average in terms of his triple slash I'll honestly take that. Anymore would just be gravy because defensively he's going to save you a ton of runs.

beckdawg said:

I mean it depends on what you're expecting out of him. Obviously yeah you'd love a guy in the .340 OBP range but there's only 73 players in the league right now who have that. For me it's more about being a usable starter. Right now a "league average" hitter is at .259/.326/.425. He's only 17 points off that in terms of OBP which equates to like 2-3 points in walk rate over a full season.

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He's not 17 points off. Average league OBP is .067 higher than BA. To be truly league average OBP would be closer to .359. Yes. I know that would put him in the "elite" category just outside the top 40. He needs to be a bit more patient and take some walks.

Anyone worried about Grimm and Rondon? I think every one else is in pretty good shape (well, Strop still needs to work his way back) -- but Grimm and Rondon had pretty poor outings. I want to see them have confidence going into October.

The Chapman addition was huge. Rondon hasn't really looked like himself all year -- with the injuries and such.

DJMoore_is_fat said:

Anyone worried about Grimm and Rondon? I think every one else is in pretty good shape (well, Strop still needs to work his way back) -- but Grimm and Rondon had pretty poor outings. I want to see them have confidence going into October.

The Chapman addition was huge. Rondon hasn't really looked like himself all year -- with the injuries and such.

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He has had a bad 8 innings in the past two months. He was lights out before that. He is working off some rust. Grimm is being tested right now by Maddon. He left him in against lefties the other day. Rondon and Strop are going to get some work before the week is up. The games arent dictating if they pitch or not. Maddon already has that decision before the game.

Grimm's story is the same as it's always been. He absolutely has to get his breaking ball over the plate. If he can't, they feast on his fastball....for awhile there, he was doing just that and looked pretty good. He's got a good heater but not good enough to live off of....needs to throw the breaking ball for strikes to be successful.

Almora doesn't do enough in terms of slugging (his .477 is highly unsustainable) and taking pitches to consider him a regular yet. I think he can be a good defensive guy and I think he makes sense in a platoon sense with Javy. Have to remember next year, Schwarber coming back will mean the Cubs probably play Baez less and more Almora in CF. Right now, his competition for playing time will be which of him or Baez takes the next step in developing in to a hitter with more well rounded approach because you can't play those two guys everyday in a lineup.

Parade_Rain said:

He's not 17 points off. Average league OBP is .067 higher than BA.

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Is that not just arguing semantics? Players who hit for higher average don't need to walk as much to sustain a higher OBP. If you wanna argue high average hitters with low walk rates are more susceptible to streaks or whatever fine but at the end of the day it doesn't particularly matter if you walk more or hit for higher average when determining your OBP. You're getting on base the same amount.

beckdawg said:

Is that not just arguing semantics? Players who hit for higher average don't need to walk as much to sustain a higher OBP. If you wanna argue high average hitters with low walk rates are more susceptible to streaks or whatever fine but at the end of the day it doesn't particularly matter if you walk more or hit for higher average when determining your OBP. You're getting on base the same amount.

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No. Your position assumes that a guy who swings doesn't slump. He will slump. He doesn't have a book on him yet. Needs to learn to walk a bit more so even when the bat fails, he can be productive getting on base.

Parade_Rain said:

Well it looks like the Pirates only played for CSF77's pride in the 9th inning.

Cubs win 101!

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Vogelsong should have retired years ago.

beckdawg said:

For a guy who's offensive struggles were supposed to be his down side, Almora hitting .290/.309/.477 as a rookie is a really positive sign. Obviously he needs to up his walks some but the more impressive thing is he's actually hitting for some decent power.

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That is his only issue. He brings everything you want in a player. But he is lacking in taking walks. I'm not sure it is true but when he got drafted he did not have this walk issue.

But

He fell into a trap that young players fall into. To get noticed you have to hit and be aggressive as a hitter. Vs taking pitches and working up getting on base.

I really don't believe he fits the profile they are looking for in a every day player until he can run a 10% walk rate.

Diehardfan said:

Grimm's story is the same as it's always been. He absolutely has to get his breaking ball over the plate. If he can't, they feast on his fastball....for awhile there, he was doing just that and looked pretty good. He's got a good heater but not good enough to live off of....needs to throw the breaking ball for strikes to be successful.

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Was watching the game. His slider they sat on. It was his main offering. I've felt it is a solid wipe out pitch when up in the count but he should be using a located fastball with a change to keep them honest earlier in the count. Then when they are behind and at strike 2 then throw them in the dirt.

His break is pretty deep is started over the plate where it will end in the dirt. He was starting it up and in and it broke over the plate and the hitter just waited on it because he was not using his fastball as his main offering.

CSF77 said:

Was watching the game. His slider they sat on. It was his main offering. I've felt it is a solid wipe out pitch when up in the count but he should be using a located fastball with a change to keep them honest earlier in the count. Then when they are behind and at strike 2 then throw them in the dirt.

His break is pretty deep is started over the plate where it will end in the dirt. He was starting it up and in and it broke over the plate and the hitter just waited on it because he was not using his fastball as his main offering.

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While he has a slider...he never throws it. He also has a sinker...never throws that either. He's a two pitch pitcher...needs to hit the zone with both to be effective.

[video]http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=518748&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=pcount&s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017[/video]

It's going to be weird to watch this team pitch in the playoffs. I never know what to expect when any of them take the mound. Jake is by far the most frustrating guy I've ever seen. It's like two steps forward/two steps back. I'd settle for 2014 Arrieta over this version. So strange to see a guy just lose it mid-season like that.

DanTown said:

It's going to be weird to watch this team pitch in the playoffs. I never know what to expect when any of them take the mound. Jake is by far the most frustrating guy I've ever seen. It's like two steps forward/two steps back. I'd settle for 2014 Arrieta over this version. So strange to see a guy just lose it mid-season like that.

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Honestly i don't trust him at all now

Parade_Rain said:

Needs to learn to walk a bit more

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Isn't that exactly what I said in the initial post? My point was more he needs to be in the 5-6% walk rate range(3.6% right now). You made it seem like he needed to be in the 8-10% range and that's where I took issue.