Pace's Drafting Strategy

Enasic · Oct 13, 2016

As of this moment I still trust Pace. This is a complete rebuild and the first 2-3 years aren't going to be pretty and the current injuries certainly compounded it by a lot. As always, next year, which is year 3 of Pace's tenure, is going to be huge to his future. With the cap flexibility, I think he could get two, maybe 3 high end impact starters in free agency, and a couple of depth guys, and if he has a plus draft, he'll be right in line with expectations for when he took over. No one expected this to be an overnight turn around. There's still work to do, but I'm not ready to jump ship on Pace just yet.

Starion · Oct 13, 2016

ijustposthere said:
Top 3 picks on IR, 4th pick hurt and replaced already. Yeah, looks great.

So bad drafting is determined by unavoidable injuries?

By your logic you could have bought a cherry Porsche for $5,000, but regretted the steal because some drunk driver totals it a week later and you couldn't drive it. You must really suck at buying cars. Or GarPax could've drafted Lebron only to see him break his leg week 1, out for the year, Bulls miss playoffs. Terrible sign GarPax - fire that guy.

Outcome based thinking is logical only when the outcome is casual to the initial decision. Field injuries are completely uncontrollable.

Starion · Oct 13, 2016

What is avoidable is change for the sake of change. The revolving door of coaches and even GMs has kept this franchise down. Losing guys like Greg Olsen because he doesn't fit our system, only to can that system once it finally starts putting up 35 points per game but ends b/c of key injuries is exactly my point. Fix what's broken & let the rest play out while improving.

Tampa giving Lovie only 2 years to fix that dumpster fire talent void is another example CHI needs to stop repeating. That said Trestman was a terrible hire (Emery's worst move) but he proved his own inadequacies by losing the players' respect.

You do realize Pace's 1st two drafts were among the highest graded each year right? Not the perfect measure, but contrary to the thought of some of you guys that he sucks.

Raskolnikov · Oct 14, 2016

Rory Sparrow said:
I'm not sure if there is such a thing as a year-to-year rolling "draft strategy". I think it changes every year for every team, depending on the draft prospects, the draft position, and the current roster. Maybe the Packers had a run where they usually spent a late round pick on a QB, but I think its hard to discern an overall strategy because the picks are usually all over the place.

Someone mentioned the "2 starters per draft" rule...I think there is some merit to that, but that should be the absolute minimum in Pace's case, not some type of accomplishment. When your roster is terrible, it should be easy to 'create' a starter out of Adrian Amos. When you are picking in the top 10, your first pick should almost be a guaranteed starter, and everyone else you pick is at the top of the round.

That said, I think Amos was a good pick. Whitehair and Howard look to be "Goldman" level picks. Not sure what you have outside of that. The lack of a QB and the lack of either top10 pick panning out is a huge hole for Pace to dig out of, though.

Bullard/Bush/Hall becoming scores as well would make an overwhelming case for his drafting. Braverman might have to take over for Royal next year in the slot.

Clearly Pace can target athletes. He has shown some skill for me early, and some bonehead failures. If he would minimize his common sense mistakes he would be a great GM. Floyd/White/Bennett/Marshal/Fox/Cutler for even a minute more/

His mistakes have been few but big. His drafts and FA's solid to great. His structure and plan he needs a C- though. But hitting on players makes for much more room for error in the other areas of a football team.

ijustposthere · Oct 14, 2016

Starion said:
So bad drafting is determined by unavoidable injuries?

By your logic you could have bought a cherry Porsche for $5,000, but regretted the steal because some drunk driver totals it a week later and you couldn't drive it. You must really suck at buying cars. Or GarPax could've drafted Lebron only to see him break his leg week 1, out for the year, Bulls miss playoffs. Terrible sign GarPax - fire that guy.

Outcome based thinking is logical only when the outcome is casual to the initial decision. Field injuries are completely uncontrollable.

LOL. Who do you consider a steal in that first draft? Who's the "cherry Porsche" you got for $5,000? Kevin White? He couldn't even make it off the lot before needing new parts. Your post is pretty damn stupid. I'm holding Pace to the exact same standard that previous Bears GMs have been held to. If he's drafting guys that are injury prone and provide nothing, then yes, he is a fucking failure.

ijustposthere · Oct 14, 2016

Rory Sparrow said:
If you crash four cherry Porsche's in a row, then you probably should stop buying them. A Lexus would probably work better.

Shit, you might need to drop down to a safer, more dependable car. Like a Toyota Camry.

BearFanJohn · Oct 14, 2016

BPA is indeed, BS, in the first two rounds or so. I think in those rounds, when you have glaring holes, you have to draft for need. If you are contender every year or are very deep, I think you can go with BPA. The Bears are not in that situation.

The Bears almost have to draft a QB very early as that is going to be there need. Unless something weird happens like Cousins doesn't stay in Washington or Hoyer has a Rich Gannon like resurection; and I wouldn't count on either or other similar situation. So if the BPA is a right guard in the first and second the BPA theory doesn't work. And of course it depends on FA.

The Bears several positions but I think the QB need is quite obvious.

dabears70 · Oct 14, 2016

Chicago Staleys said:
"G" was the BPA for a back-up QB position of need.

FYI "G" was not a first round pick

Yes i know he wasn't a 1st round pick but he was a 2nd round pick.

dabears70 · Oct 14, 2016

Enasic said:
As of this moment I still trust Pace. This is a complete rebuild and the first 2-3 years aren't going to be pretty and the current injuries certainly compounded it by a lot. As always, next year, which is year 3 of Pace's tenure, is going to be huge to his future. With the cap flexibility, I think he could get two, maybe 3 high end impact starters in free agency, and a couple of depth guys, and if he has a plus draft, he'll be right in line with expectations for when he took over. No one expected this to be an overnight turn around. There's still work to do, but I'm not ready to jump ship on Pace just yet.

If Pace can hit on his first 3 picks of this next draft and get 2 or 3 high end impact starters and a couple of depth guys it will be big for this team. Lets say he gets 3 starters on defense and those players are a OLB, S and CB and guys like Bullard and Floyd grow and become at least decent players and we can get McPhee back for a healthy full 2017 season that could change this defense to a really good defense in one year. Then in the draft we get a QB, TE and RT and re-sign Alshon we could become a pretty good team in 2017.

ijustposthere · Oct 14, 2016

Rory Sparrow said:
Yeah, its all about "crash rating" at this point.

Hell, Pace even gets lemons when he buys used (McPhee).

didshereallysaythat · Oct 14, 2016

Rory Sparrow said:
Yeah, its all about "crash rating" at this point.

Gotta go for a Hummer then.

Jailbreak · Oct 14, 2016

The conversation about BPA is almost as funny as when you hear it from the GM prior to the draft. I wouldn't have chosen Floyd - maybe White and he might be done. I would be more conservative in the first, but that's not necessarily the path to success.

Ej63090 · Oct 14, 2016

Rory Sparrow said:
Unless the good WR is Alshon Jeffery, then he's $14,599,000 a dozen.

I would say Alshon is better than a good WR.

You figure there are 100 WRs worth anything in the league. I would say 20-50 are good. Alshon is at least top 10.

50-75 are average, 75-100 are below average.

If you knew about Jeffrey what you knew now, would you use a top 10 pick on him? Who would you be happy with in a top ten pick? Jones, Green, Brown, Fitz?

Da Coach · Oct 14, 2016

Lol at draft grades!
Miss Cleo would be a better source of prediction. The only way to tell is at least 2-3 YEARS AFTER the draft. Right now pace is looking below average

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

RacerX · Oct 14, 2016

Omeletpants said:
BPA is total bullshit. Do you think the Patriots would ever draft a QB in the first round when Brady was in his prime? You draft the BPA for your needs

BPA is not a panacea, especially for shitty teams like CHI, but it has it's place.

Also, trading down as has been explained to you countless times is a viable and feasible option at all times.

But, you are too fucking stupid to understand these notions. Oh wait, tell us more about your billion dollars in negotiations, lulz.

RacerX · Oct 14, 2016

xer0h0ur said:
I will give you Goldman but Amos is just a body. He is doing a good job not getting torched but he isn't good enough to remain the starter should legitimate competition come around to challenge him.

you are referring to the "Isaiah Frey" phenomenon.

RacerX · Oct 14, 2016

gallagher said:
I dont recall any injury red flags for White, Grasu or Floyd prior to the draft.

Doesn't matter. If those payers had been healthy and productive, Pace would get all the credit, so it's only fair if he takes the blame for their lack of productivity.

While those 3 may one day turn out to be decent NFL players, they have sucked balls in terms of ROI (i.e., what have we gotten from them to date).

Here's the real litmus test on evaluating draft picks: if you knew then what you know now, would you still draft them where you did?

Answer for White/Grasu/Floyd: ahh, hell no.

RacerX · Oct 14, 2016

Starion said:
What is avoidable is change for the sake of change. The revolving door of coaches and even GMs has kept this franchise down. Losing guys like Greg Olsen because he doesn't fit our system, only to can that system once it finally starts putting up 35 points per game but ends b/c of key injuries is exactly my point. Fix what's broken & let the rest play out while improving.

Tampa giving Lovie only 2 years to fix that dumpster fire talent void is another example CHI needs to stop repeating. That said Trestman was a terrible hire (Emery's worst move) but he proved his own inadequacies by losing the players' respect.

You do realize Pace's 1st two drafts were among the highest graded each year right? Not the perfect measure, but contrary to the thought of some of you guys that he sucks.

Three years for a draft pick, 2-3 years for a HV, GM, whatever - it's all a load of B.S.

There is NO magical timeline, at each and every juncture you can make an evaluation. Obviously with a larger sample size you can make a more informed evaluation.

But in some, perhaps many, cases - one can determine in short order whether a guy is a keeper or not.

Spunky Porkstacker · Oct 14, 2016

RacerX said:
Doesn't matter. If those payers had been healthy and productive, Pace would get all the credit, so it's only fair if he takes the blame for their lack of productivity.

While those 3 may one day turn out to be decent NFL players, they have sucked balls in terms of ROI (i.e., what have we gotten from them to date).

Here's the real litmus test on evaluating draft picks: if you knew then what you know now, would you still draft them where you did?

Answer for White/Grasu/Floyd: ahh, hell no.

Too bad Pace couldn't have used your litmus test, based on "hind sight" for all of his draft picks.

gallagher · Oct 14, 2016

RacerX said:
Doesn't matter. If those payers had been healthy and productive, Pace would get all the credit, so it's only fair if he takes the blame for their lack of productivity.

While those 3 may one day turn out to be decent NFL players, they have sucked balls in terms of ROI (i.e., what have we gotten from them to date).

Here's the real litmus test on evaluating draft picks: if you knew then what you know now, would you still draft them where you did?

Answer for White/Grasu/Floyd: ahh, hell no.

Well I guess everyone is different, but I wouldnt be giving Pace credit with the health an development of any player, regardless of where he is picked. Pace would get some credit for identifying the talent and being a part of building a good team, but accolades/criticism for player development pretty much always goes to the coaches and the player himself. When Hester was lighting the NFL on fire early in his career, the credit all went to Hester and Lovie Smith. If you were a Bears fan, you would also talk up Toub's ST unit. I have yet to hear anyone praise Angelo for gambling on a returner with a high draft pick.

Of course, there are times where a draft pick's lack of success falls squarely on the GMs shoulders, but that is usually when a player is a shitty scheme fit (Emery with McClellin), or where the GM picks a guy disregarding the red flags (Farmer and Manziel for the Browns).

As for your litmus test, well I guess we all have our own opinions on what makes a successful draft choice, and your test is a fair one. At the very least it is simple and consistent. For me, however, given that the average NFL career is still between 3-4 years, the test is "would I sign this guy to a second contract, and give him a significant raise relative to his draft position?" If the answer is yes, then I would say it was a successful pick. We'll have to discuss whether White was worth the selection at the end of his rookie contract.

Pace's Drafting Strategy

Who are the brain police?

CCS Donator

CCS Donator

CCS Donator

Message Board Hero

My favorite teams

Message Board Hero

My favorite teams

CCS Donator

Well-known member

My favorite teams

Well-known member

My favorite teams

Message Board Hero

My favorite teams

Well-known member

Block someone

My favorite teams

Anti-Exultant Cruise Dire

Well-known member

Silicon Valley CA Bears H

Silicon Valley CA Bears H

Silicon Valley CA Bears H

Silicon Valley CA Bears H

CCS Donator

Nothing left to do but smile, smile, smile

My favorite teams