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I know Roberts has said Kershaw won't pitch tonight but if Maeda is looking shaky he may change his mind like he did vs Washington.
TC in Mississippi
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The key is to get to Maeda early. Lester will lock it down.
czman
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I don't think there's any chance of that. This is a 7 game series, not 5. Even if the dodgers lose, I bet they like their chances with Kershaw in game 6 and Hill + everyone else in game 7 against up and mostly down Arrieta
fatbeard
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That would be a disastrously stupid decision in a completely different situation. Game 5 against the Nationals was win or go home; no matter what happens tonight, Game 6 will be an elimination game and the Dodgers need Kershaw fresh and fully rested to either win or stay alive. Putting Kershaw in the game if Maeda is shaky robs them of the ability to do that.
DJMoore_is_fat
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I think Rizzo could have a big night tonight. I think he'll be happy to face a right handed pitcher. LA has been tough on him with so many lefties. Maeda's stuff isn't great and he doesn't really go deep in games ever. So this could be another taxing bullpen night for LA.
The longer the series goes, the tougher it will be for LA to beat us. Our depth and bullpen will increasingly have an impact -- especially in light of Roberts having to exhaust his team to advance beyond the NLDS.
LA had us on the ropes going into Game 4 and the Urias melt down in the 4th inning was extremely costly. They could have put us away. Now if we win tonight, it's trouble for LA.
The longer the series goes, the tougher it will be for LA to beat us. Our depth and bullpen will increasingly have an impact -- especially in light of Roberts having to exhaust his team to advance beyond the NLDS.
LA had us on the ropes going into Game 4 and the Urias melt down in the 4th inning was extremely costly. They could have put us away. Now if we win tonight, it's trouble for LA.
TL1961
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When would he change his mind? You mean if Maeda looks shaky in the game, that Kershaw would come in and pitch like a start? No way.
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I agree with your point, the temptation has to be on Roberts mind though. The media has brought it up to him a few times. One thing not mentioned is, would Kershaw's arm be able to go on short rest and how effective would he be, and would he be willing to do it regardless?
TC in Mississippi
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I think the guy is hurting and they are trying to manage it as well as possible. Herniated discs are no laughing matter. I've lived with 3 for many, many years and I don't do anything physical for a living. No way they go to him tonight in a non elimination game. Much like Maddon did last night Roberts is going to dance with the guys that brung him and start Kershaw on regular rest on Saturday hoping it's an elimination game on their side.
fatbeard
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Kershaw has never thrown on 3 days rest. The Dodgers have to consider the long term costs of how they treat a guy with a bum back, after he's already thrown something like four times in 10 days. And no matter what, the Dodgers have to win 1-2 games on the road. They absolutely need Kershaw at his best in order to do that.
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It's a good way to shorten a pitchers career, I think it was O. Hersheizer that made some short rest appearances in the same World Series back when he was relevant and ended up not being the same after that?
TC in Mississippi
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I think one thing we all need to think about when questioning manager's decisions is that they know a lot more than we do. I think is timely because of the second guessing of Maddon over the last few days and this business with Roberts and Kershaw. Yes, they make mistakes but often decisions are based on data and in Kershaw's case, medical information we could not possibly know. You don't have to agree with those decisions but sometimes looking at the fact that there might be logic behind them is a good plan. Just a thought.
DJMoore_is_fat
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God, I'd love to be coming back to Wrigley up 3-2. We'd have two cracks at Kershaw and Hill. Hill dominated us in LA but he looked badly shaken during his start in Washington. I don't think it would be easy for him pitching Game 7 at Wrigley.
The longer the series, the more the odds tilt in our favor -- with our depth and rested bullpen. Plus if Kershaw pitches Game 6, he certainly will be unavailable out of the pen the next day. That leaves Jansen, who will be able to go -- but might be called upon for two innings the previous night.
We just need to win tonight. Our guys are already coming around plus they know they can get to Maeda. Huge, huge Game 5. I hope they enjoy Lester, Wood and Chapman.
The longer the series, the more the odds tilt in our favor -- with our depth and rested bullpen. Plus if Kershaw pitches Game 6, he certainly will be unavailable out of the pen the next day. That leaves Jansen, who will be able to go -- but might be called upon for two innings the previous night.
We just need to win tonight. Our guys are already coming around plus they know they can get to Maeda. Huge, huge Game 5. I hope they enjoy Lester, Wood and Chapman.
DJMoore_is_fat
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I call BS. I know twice as much as Maddon.
Last night was hysterical when he didn't pinch hit Montgomery and I went ballistic on him. Two seconds later Montgomery gets a massive base hit LOL. Classic Fat DJ.
Boobaby1
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Just win tonight is all I ask. If we do that, we will get through to either Kershaw or Hill.
I know Kershaw is the best......but he is also human and not immune to losing. We just have to pitch like we did against him Sunday night.
I can think of nothing more epic than winning tonight, and beating Kershaw in a hostile environment with a WS invite hinging on every pitch, hit, or run.
DanTown
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To another end, I assume that when he makes decisions on pitching changes, who to go to, etc he has a ton of data on it
- How the hitter fares against similar pitchers
- How the pitcher fares against similar hitters
- What will Roberts do to counter his move
- Who has it that day in terms of energy and who might be a little tired
- In that moment, how is the pitcher's mechanics
- Is someone nursing an injury
It's very easy to say "Maddon should do X" but it's a lot harder to do that when you realize how little of the available information we have.
My assumption is I agree with you about Roberts that Kershaw is not 100% ready to go back on short rest for the third straight time.
DanTown
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Yeah but that was an easy decision.
T6, 5-2 game.
Available hitters on bench: Coghlan, Almora, Ross, Montero, Soler
Due up for LA: Pederson, Grandal, Toles
If he goes to Coghlan, he burns his best lefty bat off the bench so the move is likely Soler to hit there. You're not too concerned with that but you're also burning your best bat from the right side in the sixth inning, winning by three. But more importantly, he really doesn't want to have to use a lefty in medium leverage to get Pederson/Grandal/Toles in the sixth inning. With a three run lead, you're less concerned with getting more runs and more concerned with getting more outs and Montgomery was the best choice to get through the bottom of the sixth.
He really can't use Travis Wood this early in the next inning because that would only leave Chapman and Zastryzny to get through the heart of the Dodgers order in the later innings and you really don't want to have Zastryzny make his first appearance in multiple weeks in a three/four run game. I don't think Joe thought Montgomery would get a hit but it didn't make sense to take him out and it didn't make sense to bunt him over either. It worked out as well as you want but it was clearly the only option Joe had (Motgomery batting).
TC in Mississippi
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Absolutely the right decision no matter how it went down. The fact that Montgomery got a hit is called having your cake and eating it too.
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You were wrong. And you suck.
DJMoore_is_fat
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I was told last night all would be forgiven if I simply wiped Silence's ass though.
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