DATA on Bears' quiet improvements and areas of suckiness.

wazzupi

wazzupi

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Hooker in the first tj watt in the second round get er done
I think Eddie Jackson is an underrated FS prospect.
 
northsiderbearcub

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Jack Lame said:
Here's a stat for you. 3-13. In my world that is fucking awful.
Click to expand...

9379c28fa9ce61fb9f3d1a624c16b066.jpg




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Starion

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Jack Lame said:
Here's a stat for you. 3-13. In my world that is fucking awful.
Click to expand...

^ ^ Jack is hired by Boeing as an safety investigator after a big plane crash.

Arrives to scene of wreckage. Staff approach with findings.

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Jack:
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Jack:
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Starion

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airtime143 said:
As much as I want to see improvement, I have a hard time looking at the raw numbers and being encouraged- the health needs to improve and we need to see production.

Looking at the defensive splits is fairly disheartening- http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2016_opp_splits.htm

What you can see is 674 plays ran by the opposition where they were leading or tied- and rushing YPA is in the 4.5 range in that situation.
Passing wise, in the same game situation, the bears are in the high 90's for passer rating given up- and that is with the bears at 22nd in pass attempts against. 2/3rds of the ints came when the opposition was up by over 1 score with a high win probability.

All of that paints a picture of a defense that was unable to get off the field when their team was behind.

With the injuries and dismal offensive output this year, I am just as mystified as to what this defense is now as I was in september.
At least last year we had a lot more competative games that showed us that the defense could hold in a tight spot at times.

A defense that can occasionally makes stops when the other team is going 3 runs and punt or two runs pass and punt to eat the clock and end the game does not really teach us a lot.

Hopefully the injury situation is better next year and hopefully the 2015 improvement carries over.
As for this year, All I can grade them is incomplete/not enough relevant data.
Click to expand...

Injuries can't get much worse, so average injuries would be an improvement straight up. Depth is growing also.

Yes, there are some ugly stats too for sure. My point isn't necessarily to encourage but to discourage all the blind hate that everything sucks, because that's just not true. And yes, MUCH still TBD with different players seeing snaps and returning guys showing who they are/aren't. Fuller, White, Grasu? Who knows.

Great point about INTs being when behind. Makes perfect sense. Guys trying to do too much to catch up at the same time, + defense can attack more relentlessly with a cushioned lead. Bad combo for lesser talented QB (worse yet for Cutler forcing things).

Passing DEF stats further support need for better DB talent.

Good post. Thanks.
 

The Hawk

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All of the data in the world cannot make up for the fact that this team is 9-23 over two seasons. It also cannot make up for the fact that this team cannot stop people when they have to and score when they need to.
 

The Hawk

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My favorite teams
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  1. Chicago Blackhawks
One other point. Good teams need good playmakers do they not? Look at the turnovers. The Bears do not have a playmaker on defense. They really do not have a playmaker on offense either. Yeah they have a very good running back in Howard but he's not there yet as a playmaker. A few years ago, they had Marshall, Bennett, Forte, Hester, and Jeffrey on offense and Urlacher, Briggs, and Peanut on defense. Those were EIGHT wonderful playmakers in their own right. That is why they won what they won. If they had a quarterback, they might have won a title.

But be realistic, folks, and don't promote this sea of Rubbish into something that they aren't, namely playmakers. They are a long, long way away from being good.
 
nc0gnet0

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Stats can be misleading, and you left out some key ones.

Bears were 30th in time of possession
They were second to last in average starting field position.
23rd in red zone td percentage
 

The Hawk

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nc0gnet0 said:
Stats can be misleading, and you left out some key ones.

Bears were 30th in time of possession
They were second to last in average starting field position.
23rd in red zone td percentage
Click to expand...

Yep. Awhile back, they used to get a shitload of turnovers. And they were pretty good in turning those turnovers into points. Now they are terrible at it. The defense can not stop anyone and were really bad in 3rd down situations. Yeah, they were pretty good at moving the ball when Hoyer was in there and when Barkely didn't face good defenses. But when they faced a good pass rushing team, the offense crumbled and for some stupid reason, they didn't run the ball enough with Howard.

But taking a small subset of statistics and using them to try and prove this team was better than the record showed, doesn't get it for me.
 
Starion

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The Hawk said:
Yep. Awhile back, they used to get a shitload of turnovers. And they were pretty good in turning those turnovers into points. Now they are terrible at it. The defense can not stop anyone and were really bad in 3rd down situations. Yeah, they were pretty good at moving the ball when Hoyer was in there and when Barkely didn't face good defenses. But when they faced a good pass rushing team, the offense crumbled and for some stupid reason, they didn't run the ball enough with Howard.

But taking a small subset of statistics and using them to try and prove this team was better than the record showed, doesn't get it for me.
Click to expand...

Small set?...only the entire season stats, and the intent of the thread is to get people to add more stats to the discussion vs. eyeball tests.
^^ Great stats btw nc0gnet0
What does is mean when you say "can't stop anyone when itn mattered"? Is there a time when it doesn't matter?

At one point they were actually pretty good for 3 & out stats & 3rd down. By the end of the season after full-on tank mode went into effect, pulled even more starters, that surely got worse also.
 

TL1961

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BearsFan51 said:
Consistent weapons in the red zone will help scoring as well as better play calling. I give Loggains credit all things considered however the issue of RZ scoring is always a reflection of the play caller and is a sign that you could be weak at that position on the staff. He'll be the make or break part of this team.
Click to expand...

Poor red zone scoring is a sign of weakness at QB more than play caller or WR.

Someone suggested AJ and Miller being on the field will give us red xone weapons. Well, perhaps. But a QB makes the difference. Sucks that there isn't a great option this year.
 

PickSix

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Some of these seemingly good stats are skewed by how bad we are.
Since we are always playing from behind:
- Teams run the ball against us rather than pass to run out the clock.
- Our offensive stats look better than normal because we play against soft prevent defenses way above the league norm.
 
Starion

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Absolutely. That's why yards alone, even yards/play won't = Ws until the overall POINTS measures improve.

Usually the very best pass DEF when rated by total yards allowed, are bad teams facing clock killing running drives. Should look more at yards/play, # of plays, 3rd down efficiency, and turnovers, all weighted by points scored/allowed.
 
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