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So I came across some eye opening stats from football outsiders. They broke down QB's based on various in depth stats. There are 2 specific stats I'd like to focus on here.
- ALEX -- For those new to this metric, it is called Air Less EXpected, or ALEX for short. ALEX measures the average difference between how far a quarterback threw a pass (air yards) and how many yards he needed for a first down. If a quarterback throws a pass 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-15, then that would be minus-20 ALEX. The best application of ALEX is to look at third and fourth downs, when it's really crucial to get 100 percent of the need yards to extend the drive.
Ben Roethlisberger (plus-4.00) just nudged out Matt Barkley (plus-3.98) to lead the league in third-down ALEX for the second year in a row, and the third time since 2011. The fact that Barkley is near the top with some of the usual suspects (Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton) is a little surprising, but then again, how much did we really know about Barkley as an NFL passer before this season? He was a turnover-prone mess as a rookie for the 2013 Eagles, and that part of his game continued this year. However, his "YOLO" style of play also benefitted Chicago at times, and you can see that Barkley actually finished right behind Rodgers and Tom Brady in conversion rate, and Barkley also had the lowest Short% in 2016.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/alex-season-review
- FC% -- Unfamiliar with failed completions? They are one of the quickest statistics we can measure from the season's play-by-play data. A failed completion is defined as any completed pass that fails to gain 45 percent of needed yards on first down; 60 percent of needed yards on second down; or 100 percent of needed yards on third or fourth down. You can see last year's study here.
Ryan was likely not expecting to get competition from Chicago's Matt Barkley, who had the third-lowest FC% (10.9 percent) since 1989. Yeah, that randomness really happened. Barkley also had the highest ALEX this season, and the correlation between FC% and ALEX was minus-0.73. We know Barkley still ranked 26th in DVOA and threw an interception on an unseemly 6.5 percent of his attempts, but his aggressive approach as a backup with nothing to lose was refreshing to see. Barkley's passes came with an average deficit of 8.6 points, the second-worst average deficit in 2016, so he had to dig the Bears out of some big holes. He nearly did so against the Packers, Lions, and Titans, but some bad drops, questionable holding penalties, and conservative coaching cost Chicago those games in the end. Combined with his low sack rate (2.7 percent), Barkley had a very interesting statistical season, and his relevance in 2016 sure is a compliment given how far he fell to the fourth round in the 2013 draft, and how horrific he looked as a rookie with the Eagles.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/failed-completions-2016
Conclusion
- So while many QB's were completing meaningless and easy passes that only padded their stats, Barkley was consistently attempting and completing down field passes that mattered. In fact, it wasn't even close. 90% of his completions were meaningful, which was 8% better than the next QB and almost a whopping 30% better than the QB's on the bottom of the list.
- ALEX -- For those new to this metric, it is called Air Less EXpected, or ALEX for short. ALEX measures the average difference between how far a quarterback threw a pass (air yards) and how many yards he needed for a first down. If a quarterback throws a pass 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-15, then that would be minus-20 ALEX. The best application of ALEX is to look at third and fourth downs, when it's really crucial to get 100 percent of the need yards to extend the drive.
Ben Roethlisberger (plus-4.00) just nudged out Matt Barkley (plus-3.98) to lead the league in third-down ALEX for the second year in a row, and the third time since 2011. The fact that Barkley is near the top with some of the usual suspects (Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton) is a little surprising, but then again, how much did we really know about Barkley as an NFL passer before this season? He was a turnover-prone mess as a rookie for the 2013 Eagles, and that part of his game continued this year. However, his "YOLO" style of play also benefitted Chicago at times, and you can see that Barkley actually finished right behind Rodgers and Tom Brady in conversion rate, and Barkley also had the lowest Short% in 2016.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/alex-season-review
- FC% -- Unfamiliar with failed completions? They are one of the quickest statistics we can measure from the season's play-by-play data. A failed completion is defined as any completed pass that fails to gain 45 percent of needed yards on first down; 60 percent of needed yards on second down; or 100 percent of needed yards on third or fourth down. You can see last year's study here.
Ryan was likely not expecting to get competition from Chicago's Matt Barkley, who had the third-lowest FC% (10.9 percent) since 1989. Yeah, that randomness really happened. Barkley also had the highest ALEX this season, and the correlation between FC% and ALEX was minus-0.73. We know Barkley still ranked 26th in DVOA and threw an interception on an unseemly 6.5 percent of his attempts, but his aggressive approach as a backup with nothing to lose was refreshing to see. Barkley's passes came with an average deficit of 8.6 points, the second-worst average deficit in 2016, so he had to dig the Bears out of some big holes. He nearly did so against the Packers, Lions, and Titans, but some bad drops, questionable holding penalties, and conservative coaching cost Chicago those games in the end. Combined with his low sack rate (2.7 percent), Barkley had a very interesting statistical season, and his relevance in 2016 sure is a compliment given how far he fell to the fourth round in the 2013 draft, and how horrific he looked as a rookie with the Eagles.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/failed-completions-2016
Conclusion
- So while many QB's were completing meaningless and easy passes that only padded their stats, Barkley was consistently attempting and completing down field passes that mattered. In fact, it wasn't even close. 90% of his completions were meaningful, which was 8% better than the next QB and almost a whopping 30% better than the QB's on the bottom of the list.
