Trade deadline banter

chibears55 said:

I still think one of Schwarber Russell or Baez is getting moved for another cost controlled starter....



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I can't imagine it happens before the offseason. For one thing, you'd also have to more Lackey either in that deal or some other deal because they presumably will be over the luxury tax again and eating $8 mil + whomever you're getting for one rotation slot is a lot of money when you tack on additional penalty. That plus other than Gray I'm not sure any quality starters are moving. The Rays have passed the Yankees in the standings so presumably Archer is out. And while you might be able to get someone like Daniel Norris for the right package, are you really going to slot in someone who's unproven into the #5 slot via a trade? Obviously if you have a guy like Montgomery in the BP you might give him a shot without being proven but to go out and trade for someone unproven is pretty risky in the middle of a playoff race.

The Mets probably should trade Jacob deGrom but i doubt they will. Tigers pretty much have said they aren't trading Fulmer. Can't see Carlos Martinez getting traded and even if he were the cubs wouldn't be the team. Sean Manaea would be a nice get but Oakland has no real reason to trade him unless they are striping everything down a la the white sox. Marcus Stroman has a good ERA but he's got pretty middling underlying numbers and the dude is really small for a starter. Danny Duffy just re-signed with KC in the offseason. Dan Straily seems pretty average.

So I mean you look at the list of guys who fit that sort of mold and they are pretty few and far between. If the mets would consider something around Baez ++ for deGrom that would seem fairly worth while but Sandy is pretty notoriously difficult to trade with. That being said, Baez would solve SS/3B/2B for them until Amed Rosario is ready. But like I said, I don't see that happening. Only other guy I'd probably be excited over is Manaea but good luck with that deal as he's not a FA until 2023.

beckdawg said:

I can't imagine it happens before the offseason. For one thing, you'd also have to more Lackey either in that deal or some other deal because they presumably will be over the luxury tax again and eating $8 mil + whomever you're getting for one rotation slot is a lot of money when you tack on additional penalty. That plus other than Gray I'm not sure any quality starters are moving. The Rays have passed the Yankees in the standings so presumably Archer is out. And while you might be able to get someone like Daniel Norris for the right package, are you really going to slot in someone who's unproven into the #5 slot via a trade? Obviously if you have a guy like Montgomery in the BP you might give him a shot without being proven but to go out and trade for someone unproven is pretty risky in the middle of a playoff race.

The Mets probably should trade Jacob deGrom but i doubt they will. Tigers pretty much have said they aren't trading Fulmer. Can't see Carlos Martinez getting traded and even if he were the cubs wouldn't be the team. Sean Manaea would be a nice get but Oakland has no real reason to trade him unless they are striping everything down a la the white sox. Marcus Stroman has a good ERA but he's got pretty middling underlying numbers and the dude is really small for a starter. Danny Duffy just re-signed with KC in the offseason. Dan Straily seems pretty average.

So I mean you look at the list of guys who fit that sort of mold and they are pretty few and far between. If the mets would consider something around Baez ++ for deGrom that would seem fairly worth while but Sandy is pretty notoriously difficult to trade with. That being said, Baez would solve SS/3B/2B for them until Amed Rosario is ready. But like I said, I don't see that happening. Only other guy I'd probably be excited over is Manaea but good luck with that deal as he's not a FA until 2023.

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I think the best move for the Cubs would be to trade for an up and coming starter from someone's minor league system for one of their tradebale assets from the 25 man roster. High risk yes, but a very high reward possible.

brett05 said:

I think the best move for the Cubs would be to trade for an up and coming starter from someone's minor league system for one of their tradebale assets from the 25 man roster. High risk yes, but a very high reward possible.

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I'm not sure that's really the play. I'd honestly just assume they either A) buy low on an upside arm who didn't perform in the majors initially or B) go with a vet guy/mix-match with Butler/Montgomery types as the #5 until their higher profile arms are ready. That's one of the reasons I liked the idea of Daniel Norris prior to the Q trade. He's probably still expensive but I think he's down enough that he'd be relatively cheap given what starters go for. But outside that, it's not that crazy that someone like Tseng could be ready next year in Camp or really early in the year. Alzolay will have probably 10 starts in AA by the end of the year. You could theoretically fast track him for midseason next year. Clifton hasn't been amazing this year but he's spent all year in AA. And obviously that doesn't even talk about guys like butler/mills/Ryan williams ...etc who may end up being decent enough #5 fodder.

I get the impulse people have for another big pitching trade but the reality is the cubs don't really need it that bad. It probably seems some what that way given Lester and Q probably aren't your prototypical looking ace with big K numbers. But both are pretty effective, reliable and consistent. Hendricks as a #3 isn't bad either. And while Butler wasn't amazing he was decent enough I'd argue to earn a #5 shot next year. Presuming both Arrieta and Lackey leave you really just need a #4 starter. Wouldn't shock me to see Arrieta come back honestly. Cubs front office is fairly creative so it wouldn't shock me to see them give him a deal with an opt out after the first year. Arrieta wants that big time money and he's not really pitched up to snuff to get what he probably wants. So, if they could find some middle ground with an early opt out the cubs could essentially buy time with a guy the know and Arrieta can give himself some longer term protection with a chance to land a big deal if he opts out.

If that doesn't work, then i'd expect something similar to the Anderson deal only with someone who has a bit more upside. Obviously if a great trade presents itself I'm sure the cubs would keep their options open but I doubt they rigidly go into the offseason with a "we have to do this" plan.

brett05 said:

I think the best move for the Cubs would be to trade for an up and coming starter from someone's minor league system for one of their tradebale assets from the 25 man roster. High risk yes, but a very high reward possible.

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They're finally being linked to Darvish in trade discussions and that makes sense. I've assumed he'd be a FA target but the lack of linkage was head scratching. The Cubs have never really acquired a pitcher you didn't know they liked first, including Quintana. If Darvish truly is being made available he really makes more sense for LA or Boston than he does here but we'll see.

Its going to take alot to get Avila, who is leading all catchers in OPS. Its hard to see us getting Q without losing a player from the ML roster, I cant see a rental in Avila or a AAA pitcher being worth that guy unless he is already being replaced in the pen or his name is Jay or LaStella.

CBS is reporting Cubs interest in Darvish.

Parade_Rain said:

CBS is reporting Cubs interest in Darvish.

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"It would take something drastic to consider that," Daniels said when outlining his Deadline strategy after the All-Star break. "It would take a team knocking the door down on a player to consider that."

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Honestly if they did go sell mode he would command a return that the Cubs shouldn't be involved with. They have a shallow system right now and moving guys off of their 25 man is not a smart decision. Not for a guy that most likely walks with no compensation.

Man, just looking over that Rangers rotation made me realize how Cole Hamels is probably THE most consistent 'ace' in past 10 years.

Btw. Darvish would be a nice FA option, on the other hand it would be kinda crazy to trade one of Schwarber/Baez/Russell++ for an expiring deal (aka. Chapman 2.0 move, probably with no title to show for).

Cards traded Marco Gonzales for Tyler O'Neill. That's kind of interesting in reference to the cubs search for cost controlled pitching. O'Neill is mlb.com's #29 prospect. Gonzales is only 23 and only pitched 40 mlb innings. His stock has fallen a little but he was a top 50ish pitcher at one point. Something like that is a deal I could see the cubs making though they don't really have a top 50 prospect anymore so you'd likely be dealing in bulk guys.

brett05 said:

I think the best move for the Cubs would be to trade for an up and coming starter from someone's minor league system for one of their tradebale assets from the 25 man roster. High risk yes, but a very high reward possible.

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That what I expected them to last off season...
I figured they would get a couple young guys to at the very least have ready for 2018 to replace one or both of Arrieta and Lackey

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CSF77 said:

Honestly if they did go sell mode he would command a return that the Cubs shouldn't be involved with. They have a shallow system right now and moving guys off of their 25 man is not a smart decision. Not for a guy that most likely walks with no compensation.

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An actual deal and price tag may be determined by whether or not Darvish agrees to an extension with cubs..



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chibears55 said:

An actual deal and price tag may be determined by whether or not Darvish agrees to an extension with cubs..



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Yeah, the extension thing rarely happens anymore since the money got so crazy. I think Darvish starts at 6/$168 mil and goes up from there. Someone might go over $200 mil for him, with Arrieta being the only other possible TOR, and I'm sure he'd like to find out. I think Verlander is more likely picking up all the money and not dealing off the MLB roster.

TC in Mississippi said:

Yeah, the extension thing rarely happens anymore since the money got so crazy. I think Darvish starts at 6/$168 mil and goes up from there. Someone might go over $200 mil for him, with Arrieta being the only other possible TOR, and I'm sure he'd like to find out. I think Verlander is more likely picking up all the money and not dealing off the MLB roster.

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I'm still 50/50 on them dealing for another SP..
As much as I'd like to see an upgrade over Lackey , I just don't see Epstein letting Lackey go like that..

I think whatever other deals they make will be to upgrade the bullpen and maybe getting a vet backup catcher..

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chibears55 said:

I'm still 50/50 on them dealing for another SP..
As much as I'd like to see an upgrade over Lackey , I just don't see Epstein letting Lackey go like that..

I think whatever other deals they make will be to upgrade the bullpen and maybe getting a vet backup catcher..

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Trading for a starter is basically DFA'ing Lackey. There is no way they do that to a guy that has that kind of respect in the locker room.

DanTown said:

Trading for a starter is basically DFA'ing Lackey. There is no way they do that to a guy that has that kind of respect in the locker room.

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That why I'm split on them actually doing it, even though there rumors that their interested in some guys still..

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I'd love to find a defensive C somewhere (my boy Jesus Sucre is killing it in Tampa) for the September months as well as most likely the playoffs if necessary as I doubt the Cubs would go with Caratini.

Going back to the whole cost controlled pitcher thing, people should probably be aware of Williams Perez at AAA. He just turned 26 in may and while his season numbers look pretty crappy he's been pretty great since june. Not counting tonight in which he pitched, he's put up 44.2 IP, 2.62 ERA, 38 k's, 19 bb's, 32 hits. So that's a 7.66 k/9 3.83 bb/9 and a 1.14 whip. Obviously that's not top of the rotation material stuff here but it looks like he may end up back in the majors rather than a AAA forever guy and as mentioned he's only 26. Probably a #4 upside tops but it's at least something for nothing. Tonight he threw 6 innings giving up 3 ERs 7 hits 2 walks and 5 k's. Not an amazing outing but if you get that in the majors out of your #4/5 you're pretty happy and the PCL does inflate offensive numbers.

After that 8th inning shitfest you have to believe that they will step up the search for a set up.

CSF77 said:

After that 8th inning shitfest you have to believe that they will step up the search for a set up.

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That's a pretty poor way to evaluate need. I'm not saying the cubs couldn't use some help in their bullpen but judging the efficacy of the bullpen based on one bad inning is pretty ignorant. Edwards clearly had an off day and was probably getting squeezed but he's proven to be reliable. Rondon has a bit more to prove but he had been really good recently. And it's not like Edwards left him a clean slate coming in. If there's an issue in my eyes it's grimm. He's just not been good since 2015. But he's also the 8th guy in your bullpen or at least will be when Hendricks returns.

If a trade presents itself then fine but I don't really feel like you force something. I'd just assume they promote Matt Carasiti who's looked pretty good in AAA on the year. His ERA is high in iowa but that's largely because of one bad outing and he's only pitched 7 innings for the cubs. Rest were with the rockies AAA team.

beckdawg said:

That's a pretty poor way to evaluate need. I'm not saying the cubs couldn't use some help in their bullpen but judging the efficacy of the bullpen based on one bad inning is pretty ignorant. Edwards clearly had an off day and was probably getting squeezed but he's proven to be reliable. Rondon has a bit more to prove but he had been really good recently. And it's not like Edwards left him a clean slate coming in. If there's an issue in my eyes it's grimm. He's just not been good since 2015. But he's also the 8th guy in your bullpen or at least will be when Hendricks returns.

If a trade presents itself then fine but I don't really feel like you force something. I'd just assume they promote Matt Carasiti who's looked pretty good in AAA on the year. His ERA is high in iowa but that's largely because of one bad outing and he's only pitched 7 innings for the cubs. Rest were with the rockies AAA team.

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You don't hang your hat on a AAA guy.

Now I agree that Grimm is the weakest link. I'll give you that.

But it makes sense to deal for a established guy to fill the 8th. Add to it you want control. Just because Wade is a pending F/A. And I really don't see them sticking with Urhara in high pressure situations and beyond this year.

Over all both Edwards and Rondon have been better but both can let the inning go full tilt out of control. You really want another guy like Wade back there. Really not a high leverage guy but quietly gets outs in a boring manner