Chicago Bears simple realities

BearsFan51

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I agree 5-11 at the low end to 8-8 at the high end. Get any kind of consistent play from Glennon/Trubisky and the Bears will win more games. Last year the Bears were 15th in total offense, even with all the injuries at QB the Bears were able to move the ball between the 20's, but could not put the ball into the end zone. With more consistency at that position the Bears should turn some of those red zone field goal attempts into TD's.

This could be where Shaheen makes a huge difference. Perhaps he doesn't get over 800-yards but merely becomes the primary red zone threat.
 

Starion

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Mike Glennon...• Only 7.6% of passes went to inline tight ends; sixth-lowest in the league.

Because this is the same roster as Tampa was for Glennon, Shaheen offers nothing more than Tampa's TEs, same scheme, and Glennon's not improved a lick, so...:dunno:
 

Starion

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Unlike the 2016 Bears, who lost an early season game to the Jags when in good health, the 2015 Cowboys truly were "decimated by injury". Tony Romo was 3-1 when he played, the rest of the Cowboy QBs were 1-11. Dez Bryant missed significant time, and wasn't 100% when he played. So while the Bears were missing out on the services of Brian Hoyer and Jeremy Langford, the 2015 Cowboys were actually losing pro bowl players to injury.

Stats show the Bears had worse injury impact than even DAL in terms of starters missed, and their backups also missed.

http://sportsmockery.com/2017/06/researchers-confirmed-bears-were-most-injury-impacted-team-of-2016/
"Some of the worst they'd seen in two decades of data"

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2016_injuries.htm
https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2017/4/10/15247314/chicago-bears-led-the-nfl-in-adjusted-games-lost-2016-injured-injuries-injury


The Cowboys defense wasn't all that great, and they turned the ball over a ton on offense, which put more pressure on the defense, which resulted in losses.
Sounds very familiar to what the Bears 4th string QBs and backups on O did last year. Gave up the ball.

The strength of their team was the OL, which was good in 2015 and could be a built around in 2016. This is another difference between the Bears and Cowboys...the Cowboys had an identity to build around. Pace has constructed a team with no identity...an offense with a good RB and terrible QBs that ranks near the bottom of the league in rushing attempts, a 3-4 defense using 4-3 players with FA money poured into ILB and DE positions.

Not sure what you're getting at about "identity". Any data on # of plays pass/run or success/failure of what you're getting at?

Difference? You're making my point of their similarities. Clearly the Bears strength is also the interior of their OL, which many say is the best in football. I'd pose that running Howard down people's throats with a'la 2017 league leading ave yards after contact AND yards between the Tackles is something to look forward to. It's just not sexy without WINS to bring attention to it, as Howard was left off the top 100 despite what would've been the rushing title if started since week 3, much less 4 games not starting. (only 160 some yards behind Zeke).

Hard to expect worse or even as bad QB play as last year. To expect no improvement due to new QBs is pretty naive and pessimistic.


In 2016, the Cowboys offense completely changed. The odds are against any team getting a productive rookie QB and a productive rookie RB in the same draft, yet that's what the Cowboys got. Prescott was "good enough" and avoided turnovers...Elliot carried most of the offensive load. They scored more on offense while holding on to the ball...they had some new starters on defense and did well enough when playing with a lead. They were definitely not a strong 13-3 team, their point differntial had them as a projected 10-6 team, and I thought the Packers had a 50/50 shot at beating them in the playoffs, but they obviously improved from 2015.

This is my point on how the Bears again, are similar. Diff is Da Bears had to wait another year to combine their stud RB with a decent QB. Yes, this is to be proven, but again, no way Glennon/Tribs is as bad as the hot mess thrown onto the field from the gutters by 3-13 Bears. CHI will run a LOT, and limit liability of QBs as they ease into things...same as Dak was limited initially as a rookie.

CHI DEF also has some new starters...4-5 new names in backfield for starters (no pun intentended). Even AVERAGE play by those guys and record low turnovers (INTs & fumbles recovered) should get better.

I guess I'm not sure what your question is. The Cowboys were picking outside the top 3, and got the two best players in the entire draft, with one of those players being a QB. Its one of the most remarkable drafts in NFL history. So is it really all that surprising the Cowboys improved? You could trade the entire Bears current roster for Elliot and Prescott and the Bears would get the better end of the deal because 95% of the guys are replacement level. Ryan Pace's drafts have been terrible by comparison...3 years of picking in the top 10, and not one elite player uncovered. While Pace is aimlessly "turning his roster over", the Cowboys are getting elite players and winning games. Thats kind of how it works in the NFL...the more good players you have, the more games you win.

We agree on the last point. Yes, good players are a must. Your points hugely underestimate the talent the Bears have, and are based on nothing but pessimistic exaggeration. 95%? WTH are you talking about? Please back that up with something.

More likely, like many, you're still puckered up in the rear over a 3-13 record and underestimate the fact that most the talent was sitting on the sidelines or at home on IR last season (again, see the list)
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2016_injuries.htm

I stand by my point that the swing from bad record to promising potential is very similar to the turnaround at DAL is closer than most of us think. Just need an average QB to not shit the bed, and no worse than average to decent injury avoidance.


Those unknowns are why I don't bank on a 10-6 record, much less DAL's 13-3 level of success. Still need depth and confirmed QB quality play. The rest is very similar.
 

Starion

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It's not "aimless" to search for solid-to-elite players from later rounds and UDFAs on the super cheap with tons of holes to fill, while gambling on elite athleticism and ceiling in the draft.
See Meredith, Whitehair, Howard as prime examples of a diamond in the rough.

Again, it's not a sexy way to build a team, but overspending for short-term aged vets with big names is no way to last in this league, much less get to the top. Keep the payroll low with cheap filler guys with upside replacing old/expensive and shit/bad fit talent from previous regime, and allow for the chance to jump on the right FAs when they pop up, a'la Sitton.

Guaranteed, Pace is shopping for a cap-casualty Tackle & DBs as cheap rookies show their promise and out-value some vets in camps. I'd be surprised if they don't nab another before Week 1.
 

Wild_x_Card

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Plenty of Gaurds have been drafted in the first round over the past five years. Some in the top 10. The year Long was drafted there was a big run on interior OL early. We could argue the whole "value" of doing so but teams still do it and in some cases the position group is the strength of the class.
 

Starion

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Kind of a weird posting...you asked me a question, I answered your question, you got upset with my answer. OK.

I'll just state/re-state the obvious...the Cowboys OL is better than the Bears OL, Dak Prescott is better than Mike Glennon, Ezekiel Elliot is better than Jordan Howard. Not much sense in indulging a conversation if we can't agree on these 'ground rules'.

I do want to focus on your repeated QB-related comments. Prescott's Rate+ from last year was 122. Glennon's Rate+ from his two seasons in which he started games (essentially 1.5 seasons) were 96 and 93. It would be kind of a huge jump for Glennon to make going from a below average 96/93 Rate+ to a "decent" 122 Rate+. Glennon would have to increase his comp% by 10%, his YPA by 1.5, and REDUCE his INT% by 1.5%. Glennon taking sacks and avoiding INTs is the only aspect of his statistical dossier that can be considered 'good', and Dak has Glennon beat in that department too. And once Glennon can mimic Prescott's passing numbers, he'll have to also account for Prescott's 300 yards rushing and 6 TDs.

Seems like quite the task for Glennon, and that's not even considering that Prescott had the benefit of a better OL, a better RB, and a receiving trio of Bryant-Witten-Beasley.

Sorry, but I'm not seeing a "Cowboys like" turnaround for the 2017 Bears. The talent just isn't there, especially on offense.

I appreciate this response, and don't get me wrong, I'm not upset, just looking for more justification of your opinion, which this certainly delivered on. Seems that so many are so negative without reason, media especially...rubs me the wrong way.

To your points:
- I don't expect Glennon/other QB to be great, just average. Isn't a 122 much greater than average? If you really dive into the stats, Bears sucked primarily last year due to record breaking negative turnover ratios on both sides of the ball. Glennon's known for not turning it over. That alone is worth a few more wins. 300 yards rushing is just under 19 yards / game, hardly enough to significantly contribute to the W/L column.

- I will straight disagree that Zeke is better than Howard. They're close, but all stats I've seen give Howard the edge despite what you see as a better OL in DAL, who did lose one of their starters this off-season, while CHI had several games missed by several starters including Sitton & Long (played hurt often & eventually on IR).

- Currently DAL has the edge in WR corps for sure, but you can't expect CHI WRs to be as barren and shitty as last season can you?

All indications are for improvements in each area discussed > last season's backup guys. CHI-QBs will be the wildcard for sure. The comparison isn't that far off from the changes made from shit seasons to next year upswing by DAL & CHI. Again, I never claimed CHI will win 13 games, just saying that 8-8 is very doable, with a 10-6 ceiling. This accounts for the advantages of DAL > CHI you noted in QB & WR depts.

Good discussion :yep:
 

Starion

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That sounds terrible, and is terrible, as evidenced by the Bears record under Pace. The team lacks playmakers on both sides of the ball, and an inordinate number of starting positions are mediocre FAs who weren't really valued by their original teams. Not saying that Pace can't occassionally 'hit' on a guy who was let go, like a Josh Sitton, but it seems like that is the main way Pace fills his starting roster, which is a recipe for 'aimlessness'.

I'm not sold on Meredith, but he has had good ROI regardless. He's the kind of guy that would be a great fill in as a target for Tom Brady on the Patriots...like a Chris Hogan...you see him catching passes and you think "Where did this guy come from?"...but even then he's still only a #3 option behind Edelman and Gronkowski. But on Ryan Pace's Bears, Meredith is the PLANNED #1 WR. Its preposterous.

Whitehair was a very good pick, but NFL teams don't spend high draft picks on centers. Whitehair was a 2nd round pick, so he should be a good starting center in the NFL...much like how in some sense Kyle Long should be a good starting right guard in the NFL because teams don't use 1st round picks on guards.

Howard truly was a 'diamond in the rough'.

In some sense, I see Pace thus far as the equivalent to GarPax. His "Jimmy Butler pick" is Jordan Howard...Whitehair is his Taj Gibson...and everything else just kind of sucks.

We'll just have to disagree here also in several ways:
- There are some playmakers. Just need em healthy, and in many cases hitting that sophomore swing (Floyd prime example)
- Pace has hit more than occasionally and is building through the draft, not FA. He's filling gaping holes with temporary patches via affordable unrestrictive FA prove-it deals.
- this is what you want while tanking & developing talent from young unknown corps. Hardly what Gar/Pax was doing...overpaying aged vets like Wade & Rondo. Trading Butler is similar in some ways to Bears letting Alshon walk. Neither was happy about what was going on in CHI (Jimmy signed before Wade was unloaded) and both had max price tags on em. Woulda been nice to build around Jimmy, but Bulls finally accepted the full-on tank role that CHI has embraced since Pace took over. Only 7 players remain from the 2014 roster Pace inherited.
- Gar/Pax continually piss off their players and lie to the fans. Pace seems pretty clear & open about his plans, and will stick to em even if fans & media don't like it. Gar/Pax caved to fanbase by trying to please us with Wade & Rondo happlessly. They are the definition of "aimless" and deserve the heat.


We do agree:
- Meredith & other WRs are hardly proven
- Gar/Pax suck & are aimless.
 

hyatt151

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I appreciate this response, and don't get me wrong, I'm not upset, just looking for more justification of your opinion, which this certainly delivered on. Seems that so many are so negative without reason, media especially...rubs me the wrong way.

To your points:
- I don't expect Glennon/other QB to be great, just average. Isn't a 122 much greater than average? If you really dive into the stats, Bears sucked primarily last year due to record breaking negative turnover ratios on both sides of the ball. Glennon's known for not turning it over. That alone is worth a few more wins. 300 yards rushing is just under 19 yards / game, hardly enough to significantly contribute to the W/L column.

- I will straight disagree that Zeke is better than Howard. They're close, but all stats I've seen give Howard the edge despite what you see as a better OL in DAL, who did lose one of their starters this off-season, while CHI had several games missed by several starters including Sitton & Long (played hurt often & eventually on IR).

- Currently DAL has the edge in WR corps for sure, but you can't expect CHI WRs to be as barren and shitty as last season can you?

All indications are for improvements in each area discussed > last season's backup guys. CHI-QBs will be the wildcard for sure. The comparison isn't that far off from the changes made from shit seasons to next year upswing by DAL & CHI. Again, I never claimed CHI will win 13 games, just saying that 8-8 is very doable, with a 10-6 ceiling. This accounts for the advantages of DAL > CHI you noted in QB & WR depts.

Good discussion :yep:

Howard
SEASON TEAM GP ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LST
2016
CHI
15 252 1,313 5.2 69 6 70 1 1
Career 15 252 1,313 5.2 69 6 70 1 1
RECEIVING STATS
SEASON TEAM GP REC TGTS YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LST
2016
CHI
15 29 50 298 10.3 34 1 12 1 0
Career 15 29 50 298 10.3 34 1 12 1 0

Elliott

SEASON TEAM GP ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LST
2016
DAL
15 322 1,631 5.1 60 15 91 5 1
Career 15 322 1,631 5.1 60 15 91 5 1
RECEIVING STATS
SEASON TEAM GP REC TGTS YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LST
2016
DAL
15 32 40 363 11.3 83 1 11 0 0
Career 15 32 40 363 11.3 83 1 11 0 0


Actually close to identical
 

bamainatlanta

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Plenty of Gaurds have been drafted in the first round over the past five years. Some in the top 10. The year Long was drafted there was a big run on interior OL early. We could argue the whole "value" of doing so but teams still do it and in some cases the position group is the strength of the class.

Warmack in Tennessee hasn't been impressive and Cooper has been a major bust at OG. Both drafted in top10
 

Raskolnikov

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I agree 5-11 at the low end to 8-8 at the high end. Get any kind of consistent play from Glennon/Trubisky and the Bears will win more games. Last year the Bears were 15th in total offense, even with all the injuries at QB the Bears were able to move the ball between the 20's, but could not put the ball into the end zone. With more consistency at that position the Bears should turn some of those red zone field goal attempts into TD's.

What some fail to realize is the TD passes and 300 yard games were some magical horseshoe shit special from Matt Barkley. We chased that guy out of town, which will now expose that wasn't Barkley holding Loggaines and the vaunted Bears offense back, but a young QB finding a way to convert first downs despite his team and coaches. We removed the one element that kept us even remotely competitive.

Its plain as day these coaches are incompetent and being out schemed in every game, out philosophie, out play called, and out adjusted.

The worst part is Trubisky working his rookie cherry ass off for guys who won't be here when it matters for him. He should be learning the 2018 playbook already but the McCaskey's wanted to save a few million and give Fox a chance, showing there ignorance and anyone here supporting them and saying 8-8 is just showing their ignorance too or is young.

The Bears are in the worst stretch of franchise history. They thought Fox was safe after one disaster only to fall into the trap of old school has been. Sports has changed more in the last 5 years in every sport due to analytics, and the Bears are gearing up for ground and pound, bend don't break defense. wtf. its a surreal nightmare, as is al the homerism and hope in here. 8-8 with our schedule is a fantasy delusion.
 

BearFanJohn

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The Bears are in the worst stretch of franchise history.

I agreed with a lot that you said but I don't think the Bears are in a franchise low. I think there is a lot more to look forward to than you. But this is not a franchise low. I've been an avid fan since the early 70s and this, in my opinion, is not a low point.
 

BearsFan51

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Plenty of Gaurds have been drafted in the first round over the past five years. Some in the top 10. The year Long was drafted there was a big run on interior OL early. We could argue the whole "value" of doing so but teams still do it and in some cases the position group is the strength of the class.

And arguably every guard drafted in the first round other than Kyle Long have been massive disappointments. The Bears were lucky with Long and nothing more.
 

Starion

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And arguably every guard drafted in the first round other than Kyle Long have been massive disappointments. The Bears were lucky with Long and nothing more.

Usuing words like "every" will lead to arguments yes. It's exaggerating and you give nothing to back up your negativity. Do you really believe what you say? Why bother posting crap like this?

It must go both ways. Can't just shit on a draft hit as "lucky", then also shit on the misses. Look at the causes at least. Further, not saying this is you, but sooo many are shitting on guys who have yet to prove whether hits or busts way too early. Ex. Floyd. He also has yet to prove one way or the other, but 4 games in people called him a massive bust & not worth the trade up. Fellow CHI fans are chapped to say the least.

The leaning to the negative at every turn and failure to even justify it beyond opinionated labeling and assumptions is just a pissy way to look at things.
 

mecha

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I agreed with a lot that you said but I don't think the Bears are in a franchise low. I think there is a lot more to look forward to than you. But this is not a franchise low. I've been an avid fan since the early 70s and this, in my opinion, is not a low point.

the Wannstedt years were probably still worse. even Brian Hoyer scored more touchdowns than the scrubs they bought the farm for multiple times in the 90s. I wasn't alive in the 70s, so I didn't get to experience that shitshow either. or the 60s either for that matter. you people are whining about Bears teams now that lose games by a score, we're already out of the tunnel compared to being down 50 points at halftime 3 years ago.

the jury's still out on the talent Pace has acquired, I'll give everyone that, and the "rebuild" has taken an eternity. I think it'll all come to fruition eventually. maybe even Aaron Rodgers' play will diminish in time for it. :lmao:
 

hyatt151

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the Wannstedt years were probably still worse. even Brian Hoyer scored more touchdowns than the scrubs they bought the farm for multiple times in the 90s. I wasn't alive in the 70s, so I didn't get to experience that shitshow either. or the 60s either for that matter. you people are whining about Bears teams now that lose games by a score, we're already out of the tunnel compared to being down 50 points at halftime 3 years ago.

the jury's still out on the talent Pace has acquired, I'll give everyone that, and the "rebuild" has taken an eternity. I think it'll all come to fruition eventually. maybe even Aaron Rodgers' play will diminish in time for it. :lmao:


Gibron may not have been alive either, but he was still the HC!
 

Raskolnikov

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I agreed with a lot that you said but I don't think the Bears are in a franchise low. I think there is a lot more to look forward to than you. But this is not a franchise low. I've been an avid fan since the early 70s and this, in my opinion, is not a low point.

two 3-13 seasons in the modern cap era of parity and schedule relief for bad teams would statistically be right there though no?

I think you have to be a fucking tool not get better nowadays whereas the era you are talking about you could either be cheap or sometimes might find yourself in a competitive talent gap and have some bad years.
 

BearsFan51

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Mike Glennon...• Only 7.6% of passes went to inline tight ends; sixth-lowest in the league.

Whoa look at you coming with the fancy metric to look smart.

A). The TEs in Tampa sucked when Glennon arrived

B). They drafted Austin Seffaris Jenkns who has been a major bust and has already been cut in Tampa.

That equals C, there wasn't anyone worth a shit to throw the ball to at the TE position wo why would Glennon target them in the first place?
 

Starion

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Whoa look at you coming with the fancy metric to look smart.

^ I at least appreciate the effort. Better to see an attempt making a point than spewing blind negativity like many.

Funny how each time this is called out, threads dry up. Seldom much at all to back up the opinionated blame-game & bitch-festing.

Some informative back & forth discussions here would be cool, but it seems a wait & see approach is all that's left since many minds are simply made up that everything sucks until proven wrong with some wins.
 

The Hawk

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I agreed with a lot that you said but I don't think the Bears are in a franchise low. I think there is a lot more to look forward to than you. But this is not a franchise low. I've been an avid fan since the early 70s and this, in my opinion, is not a low point.

It might not be a franchise low but it is definitely a pretty bad low. This is going to be a very ugly season offensively. And if they have a below average fate injury-wise, this team is going to be pathetic because as bad as the starters are as a group, the reserves are even worse:(
 

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