2017 Bears Betting Guide

Begin by taking the Bears under 5.5 or 6, if hype pushes it up during pre-season.

Fade the Bears heavy on the moneyline against Falcons, Steelers, and Packers. Avoid the Bucs game totally.

After week 4, jump onto the over if it drops to 3.5. Will it go that far after 4 games if we are 0-4? Public momentum is a bitch.
Watch it, and I guess 3.5 is trigger to buy, but not before week 4 is over. If lower ok, but if higher still avoid.

This way you can be on both sides with chance to win both, and not lose too much. You are buying that 4 and 5 space.

If we are 1-7 at the bye, I think you might be able to buy 2.5. I buy that. Fading public momentum again.

Trubs to the rescue. Sit back and enjoy the second half of the season, low stress just enjoying development and increasing your payday with every game the young guns can steal. Ideally getting to 4 or 5 wins and scoring the lot. You should already be ahead from Falcons, Steelers, Packers.

Raskolnikov said:

Begin by taking the Bears under 5.5 or 6, if hype pushes it up during pre-season.

Fade the Bears heavy on the moneyline against Falcons, Steelers, and Packers. Avoid the Bucs game totally.

After week 4, jump onto the over if it drops to 3.5. Will it go that far after 4 games if we are 0-4? Public momentum is a bitch.
Watch it, and I guess 3.5 is trigger to buy, but not before week 4 is over. If lower ok, but if higher still avoid.

This way you can be on both sides with chance to win both, and not lose too much. You are buying that 4 and 5 space.

If we are 1-7 at the bye, I think you might be able to buy 2.5. I buy that. Fading public momentum again.

Trubs to the rescue. Sit back and enjoy the second half of the season, low stress just enjoying development and increasing your payday with every game the young guns can steal. Ideally getting to 4 or 5 wins and scoring the lot. You should already be ahead from Falcons, Steelers, Packers.

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I like the idea, but I am not sure the O/U drops that much given that the 2nd half has the 49ers and Browns. I think Vegas is smarter than that.

Buy now. You may gain 1/2 game in the 1st 1/2 but if they win a couple of their early games, the #s only going up and this is a close to 500 team without excessive injuries.

didshereallysaythat said:

I like the idea, but I am not sure the O/U drops that much given that the 2nd half has the 49ers and Browns. I think Vegas is smarter than that.

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its the people that will drive it down. After we go 1-3 or 0-4 the rest of the nation will pound the under. Particularly we have a running game, and ball control game manager, going against maybe the 3 best offenses in the NFL early.

I just don't think we can keep up, and for me the Steelers have a shot to be the best team in football. Ben/Bryant/Brown/Bell was unstoppable last time they were together. Rodgers has weapons. Falcons are nasty.

If we look bad, other fans aren't going to know what we are...we had 3 wins last year!!

Just keep your eye out for the above playing out.

I wouldn't be betting the money line on big favorites in the first couple of weeks of the season.

How to lose money 101...

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Burque said:

How to lose money 101...

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which of the Falcons, Steelers, packers games are you going to win off me? Will be -360, probably -500, and -500....but if those are correct, should subsidize the smaller season bets at even odds. I have almost no faith in the pass rush and secondary to control those games and neutrilize those QB's.

If those QB's are injured, don't play it. Julio Jones is unstoppable. Rodgers is unstoppable when weaponized. Big Ben/Brown/Bryant is an unstoppable combo. We have to put up points, not run out the clock with Fox ball.

What you don't see yet is that the era has passed by Fox the same way it passed by Lovie. He was good once, the game changed, they didn't.

Raskolnikov said:

which of the Falcons, Steelers, packers games are you going to win off me? Will be -360, probably -500, and -500....but if those are correct, should subsidize the smaller season bets at even odds. I have almost no faith in the pass rush and secondary to control those games and neutrilize those QB's.

If those QB's are injured, don't play it. Julio Jones is unstoppable. Rodgers is unstoppable when weaponized. Big Ben/Brown/Bryant is an unstoppable combo. We have to put up points, not run out the clock with Fox ball.

What you don't see yet is that the era has passed by Fox the same way it passed by Lovie. He was good once, the game changed, they didn't.

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I wouldn't touch the Falcons game considering they just endured the biggest 4th quarter choke in superbowl history.

If a team was ever going to experience the superbowl hangover, it would be the Falcons.

You have been warned!

Hometown Jimmy said:

I wouldn't touch the Falcons game considering they just endured the biggest 4th quarter choke in superbowl history.

If a team was ever going to experience the superbowl hangover, it would be the Falcons.

You have been warned!

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Not to mention replacing Shanahan with Sarkisian. Lets not forget the redzone turnover machine that was Matt Ryan prior to Shanahan....though we would need competent play from our secondary to take advantage. Makes this one a toss up.

-500 ml

Ha

You clearly don't gamble much as n fl games rarely have a moneyline approaching that number unless it's late in the season and pats vs browns laying a ton of points.

Also...ive never seen season long win totals on a betting board after opening day.....they don't adjust or update week to week so your analysis of betting another way and middling the original bet can't happen.

Other than that...great work

Its like I am in the twilight zone talking to you guys.

After a 3 win season, who do you think the public thinks we are? Our fucking QB is Mike Glennon, and after the world see's the low lights on ESPN without watching the game and knowing the team like we do, if we get jacked up by the falcons, which we most surely will precisely because as you said we are relying on the Bears secondary to save us from them, and then we lose to the Bucs who are much better and a couple years ahead of us in this rebuild process, their time is now, ours is in 2 years. And they see how slow footed Glennon is, and the predictable results behind a Leno/Massie tackled team with TERRIBLE TE blockers all around in our pass catching Sims/Shaheen/Miller trio.

So after we are 0-2, and 0-3....yeah I expect some -400 and -500 out of those Steeler/Packer games. Vegas doesn't like to give away free money.

Those TE's are not good for these tackles. They are pass catchers. Massie needs legitamate help. Leno is only adaquate guy that gets in the way and slowly loses like Bushrod, but Glennon ain't no Brees. We are going to lose some footballs this year and its not all Mike Glennons fault. Combine that with the opponents in the first 8 games and the way we match up, and its sad. I don't think we are that bad, but the public is going to taunt us a bit. I would stay calm and save your cash wads for second half when we get some winnable games, maybe switch to Trubs and build some momentum.

You guys are delusional about who we are, and more importantly, how the public perceives us. I got news for you. Had we not had a single injury last year this team still fucking would have sucked and struggled to change a single outcome. Maybe we get 4-5 wins.

Our issues go beyond talent right now too. We have a piss poor OC, a terrible HC who blew games with one of the best teams I have ever seen in his previous stop simply by being too conservative. He was absolutely fired for a reason, I live here in Colorado and can tell you I was tearing out my hair watching Broncos games.

Our defense isn't anywhere close to that one. We don't have the Peyton he had...and he still lost games. Much less our collection of WR's compared to Thomas/Sanders/Thomas.

Merideth/Shaheen need time. Cool your roosters, I love the Bears, the future is bright again...its just not this year. The best thing that can happen to us is the organization see's that Fox is not the answer, and makes a move to get a better schematic profile for the young assets we have as soon as possible. Should have been this year, but contract situation wasn't ideal for old McCuckles.

I think something overlooked in drafted WR timelines as well, the "3 year rule", is the QB/chemistry issue. Don't expect Trubs/Glennon in todays low rep low practice schedule to come in day 1 and master the system and have perfect timing with all new WR's they have never played with.

Give it some time, those first 4 games are a doozy. I agree....IF the secondary is drastically improved...IF...we can hang in some games but that is about it. Hang in and pray.

If all this thread accomplishes is getting a couple homers to pause...calm down...and put the fists of cash back in their pockets and just try to wait and see a little bit, then its a good thing.

Good talks, I'm not trying to be a dick. I agree the superbowl hangover is interesting, but its an emotional state that may or may not be real. They have good leadership over there and are eager to put this behind them. We aren't there, and if we tell ourselves we are on that level right now its kinda silly given we have a passing game that has never played together before, poor OT's, and a defense we are counting on to keep us in games against 3 of the top 5 offenses in NFL right off the bat, with a secondary that has never played together either.

Good luck to you all, and yes maybe I exaggerated. Those games could be -350 because the Bears are at home in a young season, and its the rivalry game where anything can happen. We will see.

Gambling is the work of the DEVIL!!!!

Rask, i think you have to much faith in the Falcons. I think they will be lucky to win 7 games this year. Bears v Falcons is going to be a lot closer then you think and you need to see what the line says before going heavy.

BOLD PREDICTION Both Carolina and Tampa Bay will finish in front of Atlanta!

Raskolnikov said:

which of the Falcons, Steelers, packers games are you going to win off me? Will be -360, probably -500, and -500....but if those are correct, should subsidize the smaller season bets at even odds. I have almost no faith in the pass rush and secondary to control those games and neutrilize those QB's.

If those QB's are injured, don't play it. Julio Jones is unstoppable. Rodgers is unstoppable when weaponized. Big Ben/Brown/Bryant is an unstoppable combo. We have to put up points, not run out the clock with Fox ball.

What you don't see yet is that the era has passed by Fox the same way it passed by Lovie. He was good once, the game changed, they didn't.

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Holy shit you are making some sense to me and, frankly, I'm scared.

I do agree that the game may have passed by Fox. I hope you are wrong but......

BearFanJohn said:

Holy shit you are making some sense to me and, frankly, I'm scared.

I do agree that the game may have passed by Fox. I hope you are wrong but......

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Is Fox installing game plans and calling play?

Raskolnikov said:

which of the Falcons, Steelers, packers games are you going to win off me? Will be -360, probably -500, and -500....but if those are correct, should subsidize the smaller season bets at even odds. I have almost no faith in the pass rush and secondary to control those games and neutrilize those QB's.

If those QB's are injured, don't play it. Julio Jones is unstoppable. Rodgers is unstoppable when weaponized. Big Ben/Brown/Bryant is an unstoppable combo. We have to put up points, not run out the clock with Fox ball.

What you don't see yet is that the era has passed by Fox the same way it passed by Lovie. He was good once, the game changed, they didn't.

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If the bears sneak one of those games and you are fading heavy on the money line you just killed yourself for the chance of a little gain. That just looks like a really expensive parlay to me that doesn't pay for shit.

satchice said:

Rask, i think you have to much faith in the Falcons. I think they will be lucky to win 7 games this year. Bears v Falcons is going to be a lot closer then you think and you need to see what the line says before going heavy.

BOLD PREDICTION Both Carolina and Tampa Bay will finish in front of Atlanta!

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will Jameis actually perform better than just average?

bamainatlanta said:

will Jameis actually perform better than just average?

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Mike Evans, Deshaun Jackson, and OJ Howard say he better! Jameis should put up a ton of yards, his big problem is taking care of the football. He had 28 TD and 28 INT/FUM last year. If they can fix that TB is going to make a serious bid for finishing 1st place in the NFCS.

satchice said:

Mike Evans, Deshaun Jackson, and OJ Howard say he better! Jameis should put up a ton of yards, his big problem is taking care of the football. He had 28 TD and 28 INT/FUM last year. If they can fix that TB is going to make a serious bid for finishing 1st place in the NFCS.

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He's always been TO prone, going back to college with an INT 3.3% of the time. Didn't even look at the fumbles.