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  1. #1
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    Default Handy links for FA pitchers on fangraphs



    Saw this and wanted to jot it down some where for future reference during the offseason. Figure some other people on here might get use out of it too.

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    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Jhoulys Chacin Is a low cost move but the feel of a small market type move. Cubs would be wise not to go this direction.

    Cashner again another small market move. He has lost velocity on his fastball. So this is not the same arm they traded.

    Yu is the only upgrade to Arrieta. They are not going to gain value via FA

    On upgrading Lackey any would do but honestly I would shy away from any multi year deal.

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    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    On the pen guys Minor is the guy that I would target. Magee is a down grade to Duensing.

    There is a theme here.

    If you place cost as a priority and you sacrifice talent to achieve this your team becomes middle of the pack.

    If you sign F/A with talent but not established enough to demand top tier pay that is a smart business move.

    If you trade talent to gain high talent in return you pretty much plane out but create playing time for other high talented players. So the potential for improvement is there but depends on the production of the player that gain added playing time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    On the pen guys Minor is the guy that I would target. Magee is a down grade to Duensing.

    There is a theme here.

    If you place cost as a priority and you sacrifice talent to achieve this your team becomes middle of the pack.

    If you sign F/A with talent but not established enough to demand top tier pay that is a smart business move.

    If you trade talent to gain high talent in return you pretty much plane out but create playing time for other high talented players. So the potential for improvement is there but depends on the production of the player that gain added playing time.
    Not sure based on what stat or eye test youd say McGee is a downgrade over Duensing. Especially based on track record.

    And considering where McGee pitches home games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DanTown View Post
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    Not sure based on what stat or eye test youd say McGee is a downgrade over Duensing. Especially based on track record.

    And considering where McGee pitches home games.
    BB and SO are pretty close on both. Im looking at GB%. Duensing put up 50% to 40% for McGee. That kinda matters in a small park that mistakes become gaffs.

    That said I was in favor of Minor as the closer. I feel Wilson bounces back to be the high leverage lefty as he was with the tigers. I really feel that adding resource to a redundant issue is counter productive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Jhoulys Chacin Is a low cost move but the feel of a small market type move. Cubs would be wise not to go this direction.

    Cashner again another small market move. He has lost velocity on his fastball. So this is not the same arm they traded.

    Yu is the only upgrade to Arrieta. They are not going to gain value via FA

    On upgrading Lackey any would do but honestly I would shy away from any multi year deal.
    Chacin might sign a 1 yr deal right? He seems like an ok 5th starter/depth option. Maybe he gets 2 yrs?

  8. #7
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman2385 View Post
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    Chacin might sign a 1 yr deal right? He seems like an ok 5th starter/depth option. Maybe he gets 2 yrs?
    He did pretty well last year and might end up with a multi

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    If Epstein and Hoyer learned anything this past season is that you cant go into the season counting on guys like Butler and Brett Anderson to anchor the rotation...


    They have a wide open window with a pretty good manager a young core of players that not only are going to get better in time but also have that post season experience under their belt..
    They know how to win and dont buckle under pressure

    I also think because of that and because of how the organization is now run and how with that core they will be favorites to make a post season run for the next few years that players will consider joining the cubs a little more then usual if offers are fair..

    I dont think theyll spend crazy money but i dont think money will be an issue this off season filling a couple of their needs to address the rotation and bullpen for next season and next 4+ seasons..

    I see these 3 major moves being made ..

    I think with Maddon and now Hickey they'll make a favorable pitch and offer to Alex Cobb, who i think will come ..

    I also think unless a team makes him a crazy offer years and money wise, Wade Davis will return to the cubs.

    Last, come GM meetings...
    I see a major trade for a TOR type starter..

    I just think Epstein/ Hoyer looking to change a couple players in lineup and will use them to bring in that SP..


    I also see some lesser trades/FA signings to bolster the bullpen and replace who they traded..


    I just dont think we'll see a hope for a quick fix deals or reclamation project on the cheap to address their 3 major needs...

    I think Epstein sees how other teams caught up to the cubs quickly like the Dodgers Nationals and Astros and how the Cardinals and Brewers kept pressure on them all the way through September and will make sure he starts the season with a strong team 1 thru 25 with good depth in AAA..

    Im really looking forward to see what they do the next month or so...

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

  10. #9
    Senior Member CSF77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
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    If Epstein and Hoyer learned anything this past season is that you cant go into the season counting on guys like Butler and Brett Anderson to anchor the rotation...


    They have a wide open window with a pretty good manager a young core of players that not only are going to get better in time but also have that post season experience under their belt..
    They know how to win and dont buckle under pressure

    I also think because of that and because of how the organization is now run and how with that core they will be favorites to make a post season run for the next few years that players will consider joining the cubs a little more then usual if offers are fair..

    I dont think theyll spend crazy money but i dont think money will be an issue this off season filling a couple of their needs to address the rotation and bullpen for next season and next 4+ seasons..

    I see these 3 major moves being made ..

    I think with Maddon and now Hickey they'll make a favorable pitch and offer to Alex Cobb, who i think will come ..

    I also think unless a team makes him a crazy offer years and money wise, Wade Davis will return to the cubs.

    Last, come GM meetings...
    I see a major trade for a TOR type starter..

    I just think Epstein/ Hoyer looking to change a couple players in lineup and will use them to bring in that SP..


    I also see some lesser trades/FA signings to bolster the bullpen and replace who they traded..


    I just dont think we'll see a hope for a quick fix deals or reclamation project on the cheap to address their 3 major needs...

    I think Epstein sees how other teams caught up to the cubs quickly like the Dodgers Nationals and Astros and how the Cardinals and Brewers kept pressure on them all the way through September and will make sure he starts the season with a strong team 1 thru 25 with good depth in AAA..

    Im really looking forward to see what they do the next month or so...

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
    I feel that they will not go after Cobb. I believe they will use trade chips to go after Archer but adding Cobb locks the rotation in when they are making a push to become self sustaining in pitching.

    Honestly I get a bridge but not a damn. I see it as they have Tseng in AAA then Alzolay in AA then figure in Lange and Little about 3 years out.

    When I read what has been said they feel Tseng is not ready coming out of ST and Alozay is a TOR potential. So I get adding depth this year but not what Cobb is going to demand.

  11. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    I feel that they will not go after Cobb. I believe they will use trade chips to go after Archer but adding Cobb locks the rotation in when they are making a push to become self sustaining in pitching.

    Honestly I get a bridge but not a damn. I see it as they have Tseng in AAA then Alzolay in AA then figure in Lange and Little about 3 years out.

    When I read what has been said they feel Tseng is not ready coming out of ST and Alozay is a TOR potential. So I get adding depth this year but not what Cobb is going to demand.
    Ok..
    You named 4 pitchers in the range of 1 to 3 yrs out

    Lester has 3 yrs with a 4th yr option that most likely dont get picked up given his age and potential decline..

    Quintana has 1 yr guaranteed and 2 option years... obviously those years getting picked up depends on his play..

    Hendricks only has 3 controlled years left before he a FA..


    You get Cobb and whoever they trade for locked in for 4+ years and then you can use Alozay etc to fill in for the other 3 when or if they become ready in the next couple years, til then they need to lock in a solid rotation while they can...

    If Alozay as good as they think, who to say they cant use Hendricks or Quintana in a trade when he ready, which probably wont be til some point in 2019..
    So why stand pat and wait 2 years for potential when they can have a solid 5 for the next 2 seasons

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  12. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by chibears55 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    If Epstein and Hoyer learned anything this past season is that you cant go into the season counting on guys like Butler and Brett Anderson to anchor the rotation...


    They have a wide open window with a pretty good manager a young core of players that not only are going to get better in time but also have that post season experience under their belt..
    They know how to win and dont buckle under pressure

    I also think because of that and because of how the organization is now run and how with that core they will be favorites to make a post season run for the next few years that players will consider joining the cubs a little more then usual if offers are fair..

    I dont think theyll spend crazy money but i dont think money will be an issue this off season filling a couple of their needs to address the rotation and bullpen for next season and next 4+ seasons..

    I see these 3 major moves being made ..

    I think with Maddon and now Hickey they'll make a favorable pitch and offer to Alex Cobb, who i think will come ..

    I also think unless a team makes him a crazy offer years and money wise, Wade Davis will return to the cubs.

    Last, come GM meetings...
    I see a major trade for a TOR type starter..

    I just think Epstein/ Hoyer looking to change a couple players in lineup and will use them to bring in that SP..


    I also see some lesser trades/FA signings to bolster the bullpen and replace who they traded..


    I just dont think we'll see a hope for a quick fix deals or reclamation project on the cheap to address their 3 major needs...

    I think Epstein sees how other teams caught up to the cubs quickly like the Dodgers Nationals and Astros and how the Cardinals and Brewers kept pressure on them all the way through September and will make sure he starts the season with a strong team 1 thru 25 with good depth in AAA..

    Im really looking forward to see what they do the next month or so...

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
    Largely disagree with bolded points. You're thinking entirely too near term. Anderson was a mistake because he didn't work. Hammel was fantastic in basically the same role. The reason you don't want to sign a mid tier FA for your #5 starter is because you are almost assured to lock that guy in for 4 years. And ok if you literally deplete the rest of the farm system to get Archer/whomever maybe you consider that but I really doubt they do that. One of Albertos and Lange almost certainly will be still around and you want the ability to slot that player in a half year to year from now depending on performance. The cubs lost to the best team in baseball record wise in the playoffs. Aside from the game 5 stinker from Q starting pitching and more specifically the #5 starter wasn't the difference these two teams had. The difference was clearly in the bullpen and I suppose if you want to go a bit farther the situational hitting the cubs lacked.

    In terms of trading for a TOR i could see that but think you're placing too many eggs in that basket. It's entirely plausible the Rays don't trade Archer at which point who is this supposed guy? Think it's just as likely they fork out the money necessary for Darvish or Arrieta who probably are undervalued based on their potential talent. I'd personally prefer Darvish as I think he's more consistent but if Arrieta finds his mechanics we've seen what he can do.

    Regardless, the cubs consistently have signed cheaper buy low vets to fill the back end of their rotation. And by in large it's worked. And it's just not the cubs. Charlie Morton was an after thought for most people but he had a fantastic year for Houston. Identifying the right buy low guys is where the true FA value is. If you sign a guy for $8-10 mil and he goes out and gives you 2-2.5 fWAR you're looking at +$8-12 mil in value on that players deal. And if the guy is healthy and pitches moderately well it's not that difficult to get to 2.5 fWAR.

  13. #12
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    Also for what it's worth, Cobb got QO'd meaning the cubs would not only pay him money but they would also lose a 2nd round pick and $500k of IFA money. Given the new rules on IFA spending and given the cubs will finally be out of the penalty box that $500k is likely costly to them where as Darvish and Arrieta cost them nothing to sign.

  14. #13
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    Ya saw the Q offer and that is going to keep the Cubs out. Their system is tapped and the last thing you do is stem the source.

    Jake and Wade are going to be Q offered so that will add to the draft. Then the curb will be lifted on IFA. I see them focusing on replenishing the system.

  15. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by CSF77 View Post
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    Ya saw the Q offer and that is going to keep the Cubs out. Their system is tapped and the last thing you do is stem the source.

    Jake and Wade are going to be Q offered so that will add to the draft. Then the curb will be lifted on IFA. I see them focusing on replenishing the system.
    Not sure how much Davis/Arrieta add. I believe cubs only get third round picks which assuming they are post round three are only ~$500k in bonus money a pop. Compare that to last year where the #30 pick the cubs got was worth $2.184 mil in slot money and it's quite a downgrade. In my eyes the bigger impact is the $500k in IFA because you can no longer just go nuts and go way over the $3 mil budget. You have $5 mil(think that's right) and that's it. So, $500k off that really hurts especially if you're going for cream of the crop types. Also, in the instance Otani skips this year because of the japanesse league/MLB agreement you'd like to have more to play with or depending on how the Atlanta situation plays out potentially Maitan could become a free agent in which case I think he'd still fall under IFA rules. Buying a top 50 player would be big.

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