Shane Ray Trade Possibility

This time of year, every player and their dogs are thrown into the rumor mill. Some of the trade speculation is warranted, as in the case of Aqib Talib, while others contain more elements of fantasy than any basis in reality.

One player whose name has rarely been mentioned as a bargaining chip in a possible trade is outside linebacker Shane Ray. Ray was Denver’s first round pick back in 2015.

Although he battled through a knee injury that caused him to miss multiple games, he came back strong late in his rookie year and played a key role in the Denver Broncos voracious pass-rush rotation that culminated in a World Championship in Super Bowl 50.

Ray was drafted to be the successor to DeMarcus Ware. Ware came back following the Super Bowl for one more injury-riddled year, which saw Ray play in his place often.

In 2016, Ray’s second season, the future looked bright. Although he missed double-digit totals, he notched eight sacks, a career high, three of which came on the road against the formidable Andrew Whitworth in Cincinnati.

Ray’s second season was a momentous step in the right direction, as he started eight games and managed to stay healthy through the full 16-game regular season. Alas, the Broncos missed the playoffs.

But heading into year three, all eyes were on Ray to really turn the corner — until a wrist injury suffered during training camp derailed a season of promise and cost him eight games. Because of the nature of his injury, Ray was unable to lift weights as he usually would, which caused him to lose significant weight.

I’ve been told that he dropped from his usual 245 pounds down to 225, which, as an edge defender, really hurt him, especially in the run game. Opposing teams would run straight at Ray when he was on the field, and there was naught he could do about it, contending with 300-plus pound tackles and guards at the point of attack.

Ray’s pass rushing efficacy suffered some too. He finished with only one sack on the season, a career low. Pro Football Focus graded him cumulatively at 50.7, which for perspective, is putrid.

While we know that Ray is a better overall player than where he finished ranking-wise, ending his third season as the 97th best edge defender, per PFF, is the opposite trajectory the Broncos were hoping to see from him.


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If you look at his pass rushing metrics, Ray earned a respectable 73.4 grade via PFF, but due to his 45.3 run defense mark, his cumulative grade suffered immensely. However, the silver lining to Ray’s disappointing 2017 campaign was that in 172 pass rushing snaps, he was able to generate some pressure on the QB — he just couldn’t get home.

Unfortunately, that’s been the book on Shane Ray since entering the league in 2015. He can put pressure on the QB, and he has a phenomenal motor, but he’s unable to win his one-on-one matchups consistently to get the sacks.

Now, the Broncos are faced with a big decision on Ray. The team has until May to exercise his fifth-year option. As a former first-rounder, the Broncos have the prerogative to extend his rookie contract from four years to five, but doing so would come at a cost.

Ray’s 2018 salary is $1.678 million, and factoring in his signing bonus and other roster bonuses, he’ll count for $2.9 million against Denver’s cap. If the Broncos exercise the fifth-year option, it is estimated to cost them between $9.1M to $9.3M for 2019.

In other words, the Broncos would have to pay Ray like one of the top pass rushers in the NFL, even though he hasn’t produced like one. If John Elway was unwilling to make Sylvester Williams one of the highest paid defensive tackles by picking up his fifth-year option, why would he do so with Shane Ray?

You might answer that by supposing that pass rushers are a more premium position, and in that sense, you’d be right. But unlike Bradley Roby, who’ll be playing on his fifth-year option in 2018, the production that would justify the cost for Ray simply hasn’t been there.

That doesn’t mean Ray is a bust and it doesn’t mean he can’t improve. He most certainly can. It simply means that from a dollars-and-cents perspective, the Broncos have more to lose than gain by optioning Ray before May.

Heading into a contract year, Ray’s biggest problem has been the injury bug. When he’s managed to stay healthy, he’s been an above average edge defender.

However, the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior and with that maxim in mind, the Broncos would be wise to add Shane Ray to the list of players heading for the trading block this spring.

Shaquil Barrett is set to be a restricted free agent, and I would expect Denver to tender him at the second round level. Tendering him would allow the Broncos to hold onto Barrett for one more year at least, which would likely benefit the team more in the short-term than pinning additional hopes on Shane Ray.

Ray’s age and relative experience and speed-rushing skill-set make him an attractive bargaining chip for NFL teams devoid of edge rushing talent. Knowing how unlikely it is that Denver will pick up his fifth-year option, GM John Elway would be wise to capitalize on the opportunity 2018 will bring to trade Ray away, because after 2018, Ray will be an unrestricted free agent.

Considering that Denver holds the fifth overall pick, and will be selecting early in each round, this NFL Draft class offers the team the opportunity to go younger and cheaper on the edge. Denver should keep Shaq Barrett and bring in some rookie talent for depth behind he and Von Miller.

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DezBears said:

24 years old and I see him coming back next year with a Kyle Fuller like return.

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PolarBear said:

My favourite player coming out of the Kevin White draft. I wanted him so bad at #7 before the whole drugs thing.

Dude had 8 sacks 2 seasons ago in limited snaps behind Ware and Miller in Denver.

His first step and explosion off the line is great and would love to get him to Chicago.

Could be a real buy low option.

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dabears70 said:

I just can't wait for all the threads/posts during next season hating on Pace for signing all these injury prone players that people on here say he should sign. It's all good in the off season when the fans want him to sign all these guys but as soon as one gets hurt it's all Pace's fault for somehow not knowing they were gonna get hurt again....SMDH.

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PolarBear said:

Depends on what you have to pay. Ray could be an absolute steal with his pedigree.

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