It's time

chibears55 · Mar 16, 2018

Been impressed with Efren Navarro this Spring, unfortunately being a 1B/LF there no spot open for him..
Probably end up released to catch on elsewhere unless at 31, he ok with playing in Iowa most of year..

Im really liking Freeman so far, he good depth to have in Iowa..

To my point earlier about seeing Heyward struggling still this Spring...
When you see guys like Freeman and Navarro who at 30 are no more then major league depth and bench players having a solid spring hitting against regular SP for the most part, makes you wonder more if Heyward will ever figure it out..

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beckdawg · Mar 16, 2018

chibears55 said:
Been impressed with Efren Navarro this Spring, unfortunately being a 1B/LF there no spot open for him..
Probably end up released to catch on elsewhere unless at 31, he ok with playing in Iowa most of year..

Im really liking Freeman so far, he good depth to have in Iowa..

To my point earlier about seeing Heyward struggling still this Spring...
When you see guys like Freeman and Navarro who at 30 are no more then major league depth and bench players having a solid spring hitting against regular SP for the most part, makes you wonder more if Heyward will ever figure it out..

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Think you're vastly overreacting here. Heyward hit .259/.326/.389 last year. With his defense he's easily good enough to be on the major league roster. Obviously with his contract you want more but it's not like he hit .200 last year. Do you know what he hit last spring? .164/.270/.327. So seeing him at .172/.273/.345 this spring shouldn't really phase you this much. If you want to argue it's a bad sign of him regaining his pre-2016 form ok but if you're trying to argue he's going back to 2016 numbers think you're making a fairly weak argument. As I said before, Heyward is a notoriously slow starter. Obviously that's not ideal but it is what it is. As a reference point here, in 2016 he hit .164/.217/.436 in spring training. All 3 samples are largely meaningless but i'd be far more worried if his walk rate had fallen off a cliff like it did pre 2016.

The last 3 years he has had a k rate of 14.9%. This spring he's at 30.3%. His BABIP this spring is .222. His BABIP the past 3 years is .294. That's what's tanking his average this spring. That's why you don't look at small samples. Heyward isn't going to strike out at a 30% rate during the season. After his first 3 seasons breaking into the league the highest his k rate has been was 16.6% in 2013. If you cut his spring k rate in half to where it likely will be that's 2 hits. 7-29 is a .242 average. You then bump up his BABIP 33 points to his career average(it's at .261 if you add the 2 hits) and you're talking about him being roughly in the .275 range which pushes his on base to .353. In 2014 he hit .271/.351/.384 with the braves and was a 5 win player.

I'm not trying to be a dick about this but you seem to be looking for an axe to grind here. If there's legitimate concerns over Heyward, spring numbers aren't the reason. It's more likely his past 2 full seasons you'd point to. But I'd also point out that he wasn't far off being a very decent hitter last year. If you compare 2014 and 2017, the main difference is his walk rate dropping almost 2%. He hit for more slugging in 2017. And in terms of average that's likely just down to a minor difference in BABIP. He hit 12 points higher in 2014 but his BABIP was 24 points higher.

My main point here is that people seem to have the impression that Heyward has to fix his swing or whatever. He really doesn't. If he's simply more selective with pitches and walks a little more he's fine assuming he hits like 2017. That's literally the only real difference. If he is a little more patient and walks in the 10% range he's probably a .340-.350 OBP guy.

chibears55 · Mar 16, 2018

beckdawg said:
Think you're vastly overreacting here. Heyward hit .259/.326/.389 last year. With his defense he's easily good enough to be on the major league roster. Obviously with his contract you want more but it's not like he hit .200 last year. Do you know what he hit last spring? .164/.270/.327. So seeing him at .172/.273/.345 this spring shouldn't really phase you this much. If you want to argue it's a bad sign of him regaining his pre-2016 form ok but if you're trying to argue he's going back to 2016 numbers think you're making a fairly weak argument. As I said before, Heyward is a notoriously slow starter. Obviously that's not ideal but it is what it is. As a reference point here, in 2016 he hit .164/.217/.436 in spring training. All 3 samples are largely meaningless but i'd be far more worried if his walk rate had fallen off a cliff like it did pre 2016.

The last 3 years he has had a k rate of 14.9%. This spring he's at 30.3%. His BABIP this spring is .222. His BABIP the past 3 years is .294. That's what's tanking his average this spring. That's why you don't look at small samples. Heyward isn't going to strike out at a 30% rate during the season. After his first 3 seasons breaking into the league the highest his k rate has been was 16.6% in 2013. If you cut his spring k rate in half to where it likely will be that's 2 hits. 7-29 is a .242 average. You then bump up his BABIP 33 points to his career average(it's at .261 if you add the 2 hits) and you're talking about him being roughly in the .275 range which pushes his on base to .353. In 2014 he hit .271/.351/.384 with the braves and was a 5 win player.

I'm not trying to be a dick about this but you seem to be looking for an axe to grind here. If there's legitimate concerns over Heyward, spring numbers aren't the reason. It's more likely his past 2 full seasons you'd point to. But I'd also point out that he wasn't far off being a very decent hitter last year. If you compare 2014 and 2017, the main difference is his walk rate dropping almost 2%. He hit for more slugging in 2017. And in terms of average that's likely just down to a minor difference in BABIP. He hit 12 points higher in 2014 but his BABIP was 24 points higher.

My main point here is that people seem to have the impression that Heyward has to fix his swing or whatever. He really doesn't. If he's simply more selective with pitches and walks a little more he's fine assuming he hits like 2017. That's literally the only real difference. If he is a little more patient and walks in the 10% range he's probably a .340-.350 OBP guy.

Im concerned about a guy who has struggled for the most part the last 2 years and who for the 2nd off season in a row has spent it working on his swing/hitting and even though its spring training , we havent seen anything to this point that says he might have figured it out and he looking good...

The guy has 5 hits in 33 PA and 10 Ks..
He just doesn't look good up there and still looks lost and overmatched, even against guys who won't even sniff the major league this year...

When guys like Court Freeman Navarro etc. are having a lot more decent games and AB then him , it has to be a bit alarming, even if it just ST..

Maybe he surprises us and he comes out and hits over .260 and all but until he shows a pulse up there, like i said before he sits over there in the suck ass bin...

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beckdawg · Mar 16, 2018

chibears55 said:
Im concerned about a guy who has struggled for the most part the last 2 years and who for the 2nd off season in a row has spent it working on his swing/hitting and even though its spring training , we havent seen anything to this point that says he might have figured it out and he looking good...

The guy has 5 hits in 33 PA and 10 Ks..
He just doesn't look good up there and still looks lost and overmatched, even against guys who won't even sniff the major league this year...

When guys like Court Freeman Navarro etc. are having a lot more decent games and AB then him , it has to be a bit alarming, even if it just ST..

Maybe he surprises us and he comes out and hits over .260 and all but until he shows a pulse up there, like i said before he sits over there in the suck ass bin...

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Well first of all, AFAIK he hasn't worked on his swing this offseason. The entire point Chili made was they intended to work on the mental aspect of his game. And I wouldn't call what he did last year "struggling." He had a 88 wRC+ or 12% below average. Russell had a 84 wRC+ last year. The problem people have is they see Heyward's contract and expect more out of him than they do other players. And while I get that, ultimately the contract is a sunk cost. Heyward was always going to be a glove first player. Obviously the thought was he'd be a slightly above average hitter with that glove rather than slightly below average. But as I illustrated his 2017 season has very similar margins to a 5 win 2014 season. He doesn't have to massively change the player he is. He just need to walk more like his career rater rather than the higher contact player he's been since joining the Cards in 2015.

When a player is "struggling" you can't just look at their triple slash. You need to understand how he is getting out. I already lined that out so I wont go into it again. But that matter a great deal in evaluating what went/is going wrong. I would need more data than I currently have to do a deep dive but you could argue that the reason he's striking out more is he's trying to get back to being more selective and is taking too many pitches now. That's not an unreasonable assumption. He's always had great contact rates so it would be surprising if he suddenly developed a hole in his swing. Even in 2016 in his worst year he had a 85.5% contact rate. That was 23rd best in the majors. So, I'd argue at this point without data to back it up that it's either A) him actively trying to be more patient or B) just some noisy data/early spring rust. I don't think it is reasonable to assume he's suddenly going to be a K machine.

And in terms of BABIP, it's nearly impossible to say without more data. He could just be making bad contact and hitting weak balls or he could be smoking balls right at people. Of the two issue this would be where I'd place more worry. But the thing is he was at .284 BABIP last year so I see little reason to suggest that would suddenly get worse. In fact given his career rate is .300 think you could argue it's more likely to increase in 2018 than get worse.

Regardless, I'll take the over on 95 wRC+ for Heyward this year. I don't know maybe I'm just too hopeful here but when players fall off like Heyward has it's rarely an ability thing. I think the cards/cubs just messed with his approach enough to make him uncomfortable and that snowballed in bad performance which then lead to him being in his own head too much. There's far less attention on him this year and I think if he relaxes a little bit we're going to see him put up a batting line similar to 2014.

chibears55 · Mar 16, 2018

beckdawg said:
Well first of all, AFAIK he hasn't worked on his swing this offseason. The entire point Chili made was they intended to work on the mental aspect of his game. And I wouldn't call what he did last year "struggling." He had a 88 wRC+ or 12% below average. Russell had a 84 wRC+ last year. The problem people have is they see Heyward's contract and expect more out of him than they do other players. And while I get that, ultimately the contract is a sunk cost. Heyward was always going to be a glove first player. Obviously the thought was he'd be a slightly above average hitter with that glove rather than slightly below average. But as I illustrated his 2017 season has very similar margins to a 5 win 2014 season. He doesn't have to massively change the player he is. He just need to walk more like his career rater rather than the higher contact player he's been since joining the Cards in 2015.

When a player is "struggling" you can't just look at their triple slash. You need to understand how he is getting out. I already lined that out so I wont go into it again. But that matter a great deal in evaluating what went/is going wrong. I would need more data than I currently have to do a deep dive but you could argue that the reason he's striking out more is he's trying to get back to being more selective and is taking too many pitches now. That's not an unreasonable assumption. He's always had great contact rates so it would be surprising if he suddenly developed a hole in his swing. Even in 2016 in his worst year he had a 85.5% contact rate. That was 23rd best in the majors. So, I'd argue at this point without data to back it up that it's either A) him actively trying to be more patient or B) just some noisy data/early spring rust. I don't think it is reasonable to assume he's suddenly going to be a K machine.

And in terms of BABIP, it's nearly impossible to say without more data. He could just be making bad contact and hitting weak balls or he could be smoking balls right at people. Of the two issue this would be where I'd place more worry. But the thing is he was at .284 BABIP last year so I see little reason to suggest that would suddenly get worse. In fact given his career rate is .300 think you could argue it's more likely to increase in 2018 than get worse.

Regardless, I'll take the over on 95 wRC+ for Heyward this year. I don't know maybe I'm just too hopeful here but when players fall off like Heyward has it's rarely an ability thing. I think the cards/cubs just messed with his approach enough to make him uncomfortable and that snowballed in bad performance which then lead to him being in his own head too much. There's far less attention on him this year and I think if he relaxes a little bit we're going to see him put up a batting line similar to 2014.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-jason-heyward-working-on-swing-for-2018/c-266199328

I see i guy who hit .271 and .293 hitting .230 and .260 after that , that struggling to me..
Sure he improved off his .230 but he still struggling from what he did those 2 previous years..

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beckdawg · Mar 16, 2018

chibears55 said:
https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-jason-heyward-working-on-swing-for-2018/c-266199328

I see i guy who hit .271 and .293 hitting .230 and .260 after that , that struggling to me..
Sure he improved off his .230 but he still struggling from what he did those 2 previous years..

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I mean that link doesn't specifically say anything about what they are "changing." I think it's just a lazy writers way of saying he's doing work this offseason. I could dig up the quote but I think it's safe to assume people know I'm not making shit up. I remember specifically reading Chili say that he was less concerned about what Heyward was doing with his swing and more concerned with his mentality. I'm paraphrasing here of course but the gist I got was that rather than having him change his swing a la Mallee that Chili would prefer to take an approach similar to how the cubs treated Arrieta. That is to say they want him to go back to how Heyward feels comfortable rather than what's "optimal." And I know specifically chili has talked about him being more interested in addressing the mental aspect of the game with Heyward.

So, maybe it's semantics here but I don't think it's accurate to say Heyward will have a new swing again. And parade who seems to be way more knowledgable about this stuff than me would suggest Heyward didn't really even change his swing last year. I'm not going to put words in his mouth as to what changed but I know I've seen him mention that he really didn't change that much. Regardless I think their goal is to just get him back to the player he was with Atlanta rather than changing him again.

As for struggling, I think it's fair to say last year was a down year but my point is had 2016 not happened people really wouldn't be killing Heyward for the year he had last year. It would be more a case of well surely that'll rebound. I get where you are coming from but I think it's far too easy for people to put too much weight on what happened in 2016. I don't want to cherry pick data here but if you exclude that and look at just 2017 on it's own, the numbers look far better than you would expect giving the general negative opinion people have. Just to illustrate this point I'll go back to that 2014 year in Atlanta

2014 Atlanta
10.3%/15.1% bb/k rate, .113 ISO, .308 BABIP, .271/.351/.384, 24.3%/49.4%/26.4% soft/med/hard contact, 40.2%/33.7%/26.2% pull/center/oppo, 18.9% line drive rate, 45.5% GB rate, 6.5% HR/FB, 7.7 % swinging strike rate, 82.2% contact rate, 43.2 % swing rate, 63.9 % in zone swing rate, 27.3 % outside zone swing rate

2017 cubs
8.5 %/13.9 %, .130 ISO, .284 BABIP, .259/.326/.389, 25.7 %/48.8%/25.5% soft/med/hard contact, 46.3 %/33.9 %/19.8 % pull/center/oppo, 19.9 % line drive rate 47.4 % GB rate, 9.2 % HR/FB, 7.1 % swinging strike rate 84.7% contact rate, 46.4 % swing rate, 69.7 % inside zone swing rate, 28.6 % outside zone swing rate

That's a lot of stats but here's the take away. He walked less which is bad but he also K'd less which is good. All things being equal though I'd rather have the walks with the K's. The triple slash is basically the same when you factor in the walk rate. BA is a bit lower but that's surely the BABIP at play. His ISO last year is up a fair amount which is good given that was sorta always the hope to find more power with him. The soft/med/hard contact rates are basically identical. There's a little variance but it's not likely statistically important. One other thing that caught my eye a bit was the 6% more pull side batted balls. I'm guessing that's part of why there's more power shown but one of the concerns from 2016 was his swing was pulling balls he should drive to LF into fowl territory. Unsure how much of an issue that still is but figured it's worth noting. Rest of the batted ball data is basically the same save for the HR/FB rate being up but that obviously goes with the idea of more power in 2017. And the swing rate stuff basically comes down to him making more contact in 2017 but swinging more.

Point here being statistically those 2 seasons are pretty fucking similar. I think you could argue 2017 Heyward had a bit more slugger and less of a "hitter" in his game but that kinda was the cubs in a nutshell last year. I don't wanna totally blame that on Mallee but that seems a bit of him pushing for more power with guys. And as previously mentioned I think it wouldn't kill Heyward to be a bit more patient like in 2014. But all that not withstanding, we're not talking a huge gap in production those 2 years.

chibears55 · Mar 16, 2018

beckdawg said:
I mean that link doesn't specifically say anything about what they are "changing." I think it's just a lazy writers way of saying he's doing work this offseason. I could dig up the quote but I think it's safe to assume people know I'm not making shit up. I remember specifically reading Chili say that he was less concerned about what Heyward was doing with his swing and more concerned with his mentality. I'm paraphrasing here of course but the gist I got was that rather than having him change his swing a la Mallee that Chili would prefer to take an approach similar to how the cubs treated Arrieta. That is to say they want him to go back to how Heyward feels comfortable rather than what's "optimal." And I know specifically chili has talked about him being more interested in addressing the mental aspect of the game with Heyward.

So, maybe it's semantics here but I don't think it's accurate to say Heyward will have a new swing again. And parade who seems to be way more knowledgable about this stuff than me would suggest Heyward didn't really even change his swing last year. I'm not going to put words in his mouth as to what changed but I know I've seen him mention that he really didn't change that much. Regardless I think their goal is to just get him back to the player he was with Atlanta rather than changing him again.

As for struggling, I think it's fair to say last year was a down year but my point is had 2016 not happened people really wouldn't be killing Heyward for the year he had last year. It would be more a case of well surely that'll rebound. I get where you are coming from but I think it's far too easy for people to put too much weight on what happened in 2016. I don't want to cherry pick data here but if you exclude that and look at just 2017 on it's own, the numbers look far better than you would expect giving the general negative opinion people have. Just to illustrate this point I'll go back to that 2014 year in Atlanta

2014 Atlanta
10.3%/15.1% bb/k rate, .113 ISO, .308 BABIP, .271/.351/.384, 24.3%/49.4%/26.4% soft/med/hard contact, 40.2%/33.7%/26.2% pull/center/oppo, 18.9% line drive rate, 45.5% GB rate, 6.5% HR/FB, 7.7 % swinging strike rate, 82.2% contact rate, 43.2 % swing rate, 63.9 % in zone swing rate, 27.3 % outside zone swing rate

2017 cubs
8.5 %/13.9 %, .130 ISO, .284 BABIP, .259/.326/.389, 25.7 %/48.8%/25.5% soft/med/hard contact, 46.3 %/33.9 %/19.8 % pull/center/oppo, 19.9 % line drive rate 47.4 % GB rate, 9.2 % HR/FB, 7.1 % swinging strike rate 84.7% contact rate, 46.4 % swing rate, 69.7 % inside zone swing rate, 28.6 % outside zone swing rate

That's a lot of stats but here's the take away. He walked less which is bad but he also K'd less which is good. All things being equal though I'd rather have the walks with the K's. The triple slash is basically the same when you factor in the walk rate. BA is a bit lower but that's surely the BABIP at play. His ISO last year is up a fair amount which is good given that was sorta always the hope to find more power with him. The soft/med/hard contact rates are basically identical. There's a little variance but it's not likely statistically important. One other thing that caught my eye a bit was the 6% more pull side batted balls. I'm guessing that's part of why there's more power shown but one of the concerns from 2016 was his swing was pulling balls he should drive to LF into fowl territory. Unsure how much of an issue that still is but figured it's worth noting. Rest of the batted ball data is basically the same save for the HR/FB rate being up but that obviously goes with the idea of more power in 2017. And the swing rate stuff basically comes down to him making more contact in 2017 but swinging more.

Point here being statistically those 2 seasons are pretty fucking similar. I think you could argue 2017 Heyward had a bit more slugger and less of a "hitter" in his game but that kinda was the cubs in a nutshell last year. I don't wanna totally blame that on Mallee but that seems a bit of him pushing for more power with guys. And as previously mentioned I think it wouldn't kill Heyward to be a bit more patient like in 2014. But all that not withstanding, we're not talking a huge gap in production those 2 years.

http://wgnradio.com/2018/02/24/powe...-swing-adjustment-for-the-cubs-jason-heyward/

Here are a few headlines from last spring:

“Joe Maddon impressed with Jason Heyward’s modified swing” – Chicago Tribune

“Cubs’ Jason Heyward rebuilds his swing from ground up” –SI.com

“Jason Heyward trying to get in the zone with new swing” – NBC Sports

And now, in 2018, more talk of a “new” swing.

“Well, I’m here to tell you, I’m watching his [batting practice] and I really like it a lot,” manager Joe Maddon said before their Cactus League home opener. “Every year he seems to make a little bit of an adjustment. The one right now, if we can take it into the game, it’s going to be very, very interesting to watch.”

It’s like a broken record. Every year there’s an ‘adjustment’ or ‘tweak’ to his swing. This spring, Maddon says he’s seen more power and pop off Heyward’s bat.

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beckdawg · Mar 16, 2018

chibears55 said:
It’s like a broken record. Every year there’s an ‘adjustment’ or ‘tweak’ to his swing. This spring, Maddon says he’s seen more power and pop off Heyward’s bat.

I'm not a hitting coach so I'm not the guy to talk to about this. But isn't that just baseball? Like the point I'm getting at is there's a difference between having a new swing and tweaking your existing one. Bryant tweaked his swing in year 2 in order to cut down on K's. But it's not like he totally retooled how he went about hitting. I suppose that is semantics but that's what I'm getting at. I really don't think Heyward is actually making much of a change but writers being lazy will say anything is a change to his swing.

Regardless, like I said I thought I read some where that what they were trying to do was to get him back to what he was doing earlier in his career in Atlanta. Pretty sure I saw this on bleacher nation so I'll just grab some stuff from a quick search from there...

Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
Maddon: Chili Davis already working with Jason Heyward. “I see that being an easy dialogue.” No overhaul, just subtle changes

According to Heyward, Davis has mostly steered their work together away from the mechanical side of the game. And it sounds like Heyward’s happy about it, telling Mooney: “Sometimes, you may not always need to talk about a mechanical thing. Sometimes, you just may need [to talk about a feel] and this gets you in the right mindset. And then things fall into place that way. Because at the end of the day, during the season, [for] 162 games, that’s what you need more than anything. You can work mechanics. You can work drills all you want to. But the mindset going into that drill is important. And the mindset going into each game and at-bat is a big thing.”

chibears55 · Mar 16, 2018

beckdawg said:
I'm not a hitting coach so I'm not the guy to talk to about this. But isn't that just baseball? Like the point I'm getting at is there's a difference between having a new swing and tweaking your existing one. Bryant tweaked his swing in year 2 in order to cut down on K's. But it's not like he totally retooled how he went about hitting. I suppose that is semantics but that's what I'm getting at. I really don't think Heyward is actually making much of a change but writers being lazy will say anything is a change to his swing.

Regardless, like I said I thought I read some where that what they were trying to do was to get him back to what he was doing earlier in his career in Atlanta. Pretty sure I saw this on bleacher nation so I'll just grab some stuff from a quick search from there...

Whatever you want to call what he did over the winter, he still hasnt put it together this Spring and well, i guess we will see how long and if he does, it takes for him to put it together once the season starts...

Like i said before, ive been pulling for him but until he shows us he out of it and is consistent with it, he in that corner bin for now..

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CSF77 · Mar 16, 2018

I don’t like Jason’s hitting stance. It is more set up for line drives and ground balls. More of a crouch with a level swing plane. His peak power years his approach was more like Frank Thomas’s.

He did crack a homer yesterday into the wind so that is a good sign but with his approach at the plate that result is more towards the exception vs the rule.

beckdawg · Mar 16, 2018

CSF77 said:
I don’t like Jason’s hitting stance. It is more set up for line drives and ground balls. More of a crouch with a level swing plane. His peak power years his approach was more like Frank Thomas’s.

He did crack a homer yesterday into the wind so that is a good sign but with his approach at the plate that result is more towards the exception vs the rule.

Again I'll preface this by saying I'm not a hitting coach and mechanics aren't my thing but I think people get to roped up into hitting for peak power. I really don't think there's that much actual difference between a doubles hitter and a HR hitter. Obviously an ideal hitter does both well a la Rizzo/Bryant. But if it's a choice between either or i dont't think it really matters. For example, if you look at Denard Span vs say Cargo last year both had 48 XBH both Span was worth 102 wRC+ to Cargos 84. Even if you instead use Brandon Belt who was a 119 wRC+ you're talking about 67 wRC for Belt vs 68 for Span. Granted Span had 91 more PA's but even if you prorate that over similar PAs you're only talking about a difference of about 13 runs over the course of a season for a HR hitter vs a 2B hitter.

Obviously pro players always are going to go for whatever little edge is there but I guess I'm just in the camp that I'm not sure it's the right move especially in a case like Heywards where it didn't take in Atlanta let alone trying to do it in STL and later CHI. I personally think there's value in having guys on base even if they aren't hitting HRs. I think there's data that suggests pitcher throwing out of the stretch are often far less comfortable which can lead to more pitches and potentially more base runners. I imagine that sort of data isn't taken into account in wRC+ numbers. It often feels like HR's will let a guy who's struggling off the hook which seems like an odd thing to say but it often feels like they can settle back in when no one is on the bases where as a guy who just keeps getting dinked by base hit after hit can't get out of an inning.

I don't that could just be anecdotal but it's sorta how I feel in my gut.

CSF77 · Mar 17, 2018

beckdawg said:
Again I'll preface this by saying I'm not a hitting coach and mechanics aren't my thing but I think people get to roped up into hitting for peak power. I really don't think there's that much actual difference between a doubles hitter and a HR hitter. Obviously an ideal hitter does both well a la Rizzo/Bryant. But if it's a choice between either or i dont't think it really matters. For example, if you look at Denard Span vs say Cargo last year both had 48 XBH both Span was worth 102 wRC+ to Cargos 84. Even if you instead use Brandon Belt who was a 119 wRC+ you're talking about 67 wRC for Belt vs 68 for Span. Granted Span had 91 more PA's but even if you prorate that over similar PAs you're only talking about a difference of about 13 runs over the course of a season for a HR hitter vs a 2B hitter.

Obviously pro players always are going to go for whatever little edge is there but I guess I'm just in the camp that I'm not sure it's the right move especially in a case like Heywards where it didn't take in Atlanta let alone trying to do it in STL and later CHI. I personally think there's value in having guys on base even if they aren't hitting HRs. I think there's data that suggests pitcher throwing out of the stretch are often far less comfortable which can lead to more pitches and potentially more base runners. I imagine that sort of data isn't taken into account in wRC+ numbers. It often feels like HR's will let a guy who's struggling off the hook which seems like an odd thing to say but it often feels like they can settle back in when no one is on the bases where as a guy who just keeps getting dinked by base hit after hit can't get out of an inning.

I don't that could just be anecdotal but it's sorta how I feel in my gut.

It has more to do with creating loft. Happ, Rizzo and Bryant have natural upper cuts where they are more likely to hit the ball at a 45-60 deg. A level swing like Heyward or Almora is more likely to hit at a 30-45.

The ideal swing matches the downward plane of the incoming pitch where you have the longest contact zone vs swing level which limits the contact zone.

https://hittingperformancelab.com/baseball-swing-path/

beckdawg · Mar 17, 2018

It'll be interesting to see how Bote fits into the cubs plans going forward. Seems fairly likely he's MLB ready after his AFL/ST performances. After tonight's game he's hitting .298/.377/.489 this spring. Problem is he's arguably a marginally better La Stella. What I mean by that is he doesn't necessarily have a defensive home and is probably best off the bench but on the plus side in comparison to La Stella he has a bit more power. I think you could make a case for La Stella as a starter on some teams so likewise I think Bote probably could start on rebuilding teams with an eye toward maybe him being good enough to keep around when they get good.

As I see him and La Stella as similar players, think its worth noting that the trade to get La Stella cost Arodys Vizcaino. Vizcaino was looking like a potential dominant back end type and while he was only at AA/AAA at the time, the markers were there. He had a fantastic k rate and he was always a guy who had high grades on his pitches. And given the cubs current needs, a trade in this sort of vein makes sense. Given Miami is clearly tanking I'd be curious what it would take to get Barraclough.

beckdawg · Mar 18, 2018

So... Fernando Kelli is in the game today... that's.... odd. He's a super young CF who was in the DSL last year. Not sure what to make of that. I think he's only 19. He was pretty fucking good in the DSL though. Seems pretty young though to be used in this manner.

chibears55 · Mar 18, 2018

beckdawg said:
So... Fernando Kelli is in the game today... that's.... odd. He's a super young CF who was in the DSL last year. Not sure what to make of that. I think he's only 19. He was pretty fucking good in the DSL though. Seems pretty young though to be used in this manner.

Probably just giving the kid a little taste in a game where half the squad is in Vegas...

Which they showed this game on T.V. today over the other one

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beckdawg · Mar 18, 2018

chibears55 said:
Probably just giving the kid a little taste in a game where half the squad is in Vegas...

Which they showed this game on T.V. today over the other one

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I'm watching it online. I turned it on to catch Kelli because I think he's going to pop up big in prospect lists the next year or so. He only had 1 AB so far but he hit a liner up the middle. Didn't look to have a ton of power behind it but it got the job done. He hasn't had much hit to him in CF but he looked to have decent range and an average arm on the one play I saw.

beckdawg · Mar 18, 2018

Kelli had another hit in his second AB. Hit right in front of the CF. Kid looked LEAN but you can tell he had good bat on ball skills. I'm guessing he starts in A- but depending on how stuff shakes out it wouldn't shock me to see him in A ball. I think he's good enough in terms of contact to play there.

CSF77 · Mar 18, 2018

beckdawg said:
It'll be interesting to see how Bote fits into the cubs plans going forward. Seems fairly likely he's MLB ready after his AFL/ST performances. After tonight's game he's hitting .298/.377/.489 this spring. Problem is he's arguably a marginally better La Stella. What I mean by that is he doesn't necessarily have a defensive home and is probably best off the bench but on the plus side in comparison to La Stella he has a bit more power. I think you could make a case for La Stella as a starter on some teams so likewise I think Bote probably could start on rebuilding teams with an eye toward maybe him being good enough to keep around when they get good.

As I see him and La Stella as similar players, think its worth noting that the trade to get La Stella cost Arodys Vizcaino. Vizcaino was looking like a potential dominant back end type and while he was only at AA/AAA at the time, the markers were there. He had a fantastic k rate and he was always a guy who had high grades on his pitches. And given the cubs current needs, a trade in this sort of vein makes sense. Given Miami is clearly tanking I'd be curious what it would take to get Barraclough.

I’m pretty sure that he plays at AAA this year. Freeman has looked even better and would be ahead of him in the recall list as he covers a vital position vs a tweener sub avg glove hitter looking for a opertunity.

chibears55 · Mar 19, 2018

CSF77 said:
I’m pretty sure that he plays at AAA this year. Freeman has looked even better and would be ahead of him in the recall list as he covers a vital position vs a tweener sub avg glove hitter looking for a opertunity.

Ryan Court put himself in good position for team to keep an eye on him too..

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CSF77 · Mar 19, 2018

chibears55 said:
Ryan Court put himself in good position for team to keep an eye on him too..

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He is a good depth player. They are lacking SS at the higher levels. A injury to either Baez or Russell forces Freeman up to UI. That leaves Iowa exposed.

Looking at it another way Freeman proves that this spring is not a fluke it opens up trading either Baez or Russell. Ideally you would target Coleme and it would take either to headline the deal.

It's time

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