IST: Cubs @ Brewers

Omeletpants · Apr 8, 2018

Matt360 said:
Let’s not get too carried away. Let’s start with actually catching the ball first.

Joking aside, he’s turning into a guy you love watching on YOUR team, but hate if he’s not *cough* Ryan Braun. Gotta love the merciless booing at home.

I haven’t seen that scuffle yet, but we’re talking about a guy who had a ball stuck to his chest protected last year. Eh, no big deal. The cubs feed kept talking about the benches clearing and how they’d show it but never did.

I fear Contreras may become insufferable in 5 years

chibears55 · Apr 8, 2018

TL1961 said:
No. It's supposed to make people who understand BABIP realize they are likely to see a "correction". The point of the stat is that an out is not an out. If one guy doesn't K much, and another does, and their BA is currently equal, you can expect them to not wind up the same.

BABIP tends to even out more than BA, due primarily to K's and HR's. Not entirely - Rod Carew and Jason Heyward won't have the same BABIP. But it is an indicator.

I said i know theyll be better and was just pointing out the start for the outfield..

Back to BAB..
You point out about not striking out too much.. Heyward dont strike out much , his BAB was .284 last year..
Did they make you feel better about Heyward? No because he was still making outs

You guys can like these advance stats that try and make a player look a little better then what their actually doing but the bottom line when it all said and done is how many times they get a hit per AB and on base per PA , that all that really matters when it all said and done..
When a guy hitting .240 later in season, your not going to be ok with it cause his BAB is .280

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TL1961 · Apr 8, 2018

chibears55 said:
I said i know theyll be better and was just pointing out the start for the outfield..

Back to BAB..
You point out about not striking out too much.. Heyward dont strike out much , his BAB was .284 last year..
Did they make you feel better about Heyward? No because he was still making outs

You guys can like these advance stats that try and make a player look a little better then what their actually doing but the bottom line when it all said and done is how many times they get a hit per AB and on base per PA , that all that really matters when it all said and done..
When a guy hitting .240 later in season, your not going to be ok with it cause his BAB is .280

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You're just completely misunderstanding others' points.

I am not predicting Heyward will hit .300. The point was, if BABIP is lower than can reasonably be expected, BA can reasonably be expected to go up. He batted .259 last year. No I was not thrilled with it, and I don't expect much better this year. But .259 is way better than .227. If a guy batting .270 raised it to .302 you'd be thrilled with the 32 point difference. But when a guy goes from terrible to poor, they're considered the same thing.

chibears55 · Apr 8, 2018

TL1961 said:
You're just completely misunderstanding others' points.

I am not predicting Heyward will hit .300. The point was, if BABIP is lower than can reasonably be expected, BA can reasonably be expected to go up. He batted .259 last year. No I was not thrilled with it, and I don't expect much better this year. But .259 is way better than .227. If a guy batting .270 raised it to .302 you'd be thrilled with the 32 point difference. But when a guy goes from terrible to poor, they're considered the same thing.

Im not saying you think he'll hit .300, im assuming you mean his BABIP..

But as you say if their BABIP is lower then average, that he should improve..
You can say same thing with the BA if it lower then average..
That you can expect improvement
I dont need to see a special stat to tell me that..

I see a guy who been hitting .280 the last 2 years , hitting .230 in April ..
Well yea i expect him to get better at some point, i dont need a BABIP to tell me that..

As far as Heyward average goes, if he hits .260 all year.. id be good with that, especially if he has a decent OBP..

But again...lol

My origional post was just pointing out the averages of the 4 outfielders..their not good now.. i wasnt saying that where or what i expect to see from them all year.. i expect and hope they improve upwards by the end of the homestand..

Beck threw the BABIP curveball in there. Lol
I like some of the advance stats but there some that i see as just trying to make a player look a little better then what he actually doing..

We can just agree to disagree on that over duscussing them all night..lol

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Globetrotter · Apr 8, 2018

TL1961 said:
Neither of these guys are in Ryan Braun territory. Braun got caught not once, but twice, cheating with PED's, and ruined an innocent man's reputation in the process. (The Fedex driver). I'd hate him more on MY team than on another, given his false proclamation of innocence that sucked in all Bewers fans and Aaron Rodgers.

Many Cards fans are saying Yadi should face no discipline because the ump stepped between Yadi and the DBacks manager. Unreal. He was jawing at the AZ Mgr who was yelling at the ump.

We’re on the same page. I was telling my wife about Braun’s BS earlier today.

beckdawg · Apr 8, 2018

chibears55 said:
Ok.. so this is supposed to make what their currently doing better?

I get putting the ball in play gives you a great chance of getting a hit but an out an out in my book..

Heyward hasnt been a .300 BABIP since 2015...

He was a .284BABIP last year, did that make Heyward a good hitter last year? No

Does knowing he has a .300 career BABIP make you or anyone feel better or confidence in Heyward hitting? No

Yes he had some good AB this year and has hit the ball hard but he still making outs at about an 80% clip

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Do you understand the point of BABIP? It's that baseball is a statistically random game where players hit the ball at players some days and other days don't. Over enough time that levels out. For every 5-24 for stretch someone like Heyward will have he's going to have a 8-26 stretch. Even if you believe he's as horrible as he was in 2016(which given the data on hard hit balls seems unlikely) his BABIP in 2016 was .266 which is 55 points higher than his current BABIP. If you toss 55 points on his average he's hitting roughly .265/.341 which just so happens to be strikingly close to his career average of .261/.343.

So you ask the question how do I feel about this? I feel great because even being super conservative about his likely improvement over more of a sample, he's already on pace for roughly career average numbers which would be an improvement over last year. In particular, his walk rate is up to 12.1% which is a big deal for him considering the past 3 years it's been 9.2%, 9.1% and 8.5%.

This is a perfect example of why looking solely at BA is pointless. His wOBA is .397. Bryant who's scorching right now is only a .452 wOBA. Zobrist who's also scorching is .428.

chibears55 · Apr 8, 2018

beckdawg said:
Do you understand the point of BABIP? It's that baseball is a statistically random game where players hit the ball at players some days and other days don't. Over enough time that levels out. For every 5-24 for stretch someone like Heyward will have he's going to have a 8-26 stretch. Even if you believe he's as horrible as he was in 2016(which given the data on hard hit balls seems unlikely) his BABIP in 2016 was .266 which is 55 points higher than his current BABIP. If you toss 55 points on his average he's hitting roughly .265/.341 which just so happens to be strikingly close to his career average of .261/.343.

So you ask the question how do I feel about this? I feel great because even being super conservative about his likely improvement over more of a sample, he's already on pace for roughly career average numbers which would be an improvement over last year. In particular, his walk rate is up to 12.1% which is a big deal for him considering the past 3 years it's been 9.2%, 9.1% and 8.5%.

This is a perfect example of why looking solely at BA is pointless. His wOBA is .397. Bryant who's scorching right now is only a .452 wOBA. Zobrist who's also scorching is .428.

LMFAO....

Do you understand that i really dont care about BABIP and that my origional post had nothing to do about nothing except for posting the current batting average of the cubs 4 outfielders....lol

Yes.. i also included in that post saying that unlike last year when they had Happ to bring up to play later in year, to where he was able to play for a struggling Schwarber..
they currently dont have anyone like him in their system now if it comes to that later in year.

But yea... you bringing up an advanced stat and getting heated about it over a simple post is kinda funny.. sorry

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beckdawg · Apr 8, 2018

Also FWIW, Schwarber's wOBA sits at .316. Last year non-pitcher league average was .326. In other words there's a vast difference between actual results and expected results based on how he and Heyward have played. Schwarber has been more or less marginally below league average and Heyward has been vastly above.

Almora isn't fairing quite as well at .264 wOBA. Thing is he's never going to be a big walk rate guy. He's a guy who's going to live or die on balls in play and when those aren't going his way he's of course going to look bad. But I mean we're talking about a career .287 hitter who's had 23 PAs. I'd relax a bit.

chibears55 · Apr 8, 2018

beckdawg said:
Also FWIW, Schwarber's wOBA sits at .316. Last year non-pitcher league average was .326. In other words there's a vast difference between actual results and expected results based on how he and Heyward have played. Schwarber has been more or less marginally below league average and Heyward has been vastly above.

Almora isn't fairing quite as well at .264 wOBA. Thing is he's never going to be a big walk rate guy. He's a guy who's going to live or die on balls in play and when those aren't going his way he's of course going to look bad. But I mean we're talking about a career .287 hitter who's had 23 PAs. I'd relax a bit.

LMAO...

Didnt know i wasnt relax..

Wow..

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beckdawg · Apr 8, 2018

chibears55 said:
LMFAO....

Do you understand that i really dont care about BABIP and that my origional post had nothing to do about nothing except for posting the current batting average of the cubs 4 outfielders....lol

Yes.. i also included in that post saying that unlike last year when they had Happ to bring up to play later in year, to where he was able to play for a struggling Schwarber..
they currently dont have anyone like him in their system now if it comes to that later in year.

But yea... you bringing up an advanced stat and getting heated about it over a simple post is kinda funny.. sorry

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Do you understand you continually complain about stuff that is just baseball? That's the point. Whether you care about BABIP or not doesn't matter. Players don't pick and choose when the balls fall in play. I don't even understand what the point of your post was. Those 3 players hitting for a low batting average has little meaning going forward. It's one thing to be worried about Happ who is striking out like crazy. You want to point out his struggles fine but the entire reason the other 3 players are "struggling" is because the balls they are hitting aren't falling and that's not something you can control. That isn't something that will continue to happen at the poor rate it is. So complaining about it is entirely pointless.

It's literally the inverse of someone like Chris Owings who's hitting .400/.464/.600 but has a BABIP of .600. That shit isn't going to continue just like those 3 aren't going to continually hit into bad sequencing.

chibears55 · Apr 8, 2018

beckdawg said:
Do you understand you continually complain about stuff that is just baseball? That's the point. Whether you care about BABIP or not doesn't matter. Players don't pick and choose when the balls fall in play. I don't even understand what the point of your post was. Those 3 players hitting for a low batting average has little meaning going forward. It's one thing to be worried about Happ who is striking out like crazy. You want to point out his struggles fine but the entire reason the other 3 players are "struggling" is because the balls they are hitting aren't falling and that's not something you can control. That isn't something that will continue to happen at the poor rate it is. So complaining about it is entirely pointless.

It's literally the inverse of someone like Chris Owings who's hitting .400/.464/.600 but has a BABIP of .600. That shit isn't going to continue just like those 3 aren't going to continually hit into bad sequencing.

Oh stop already with this...

I made a simple post showing the average of their 4 outfielders..
That all

You turned it into a an advanced stat thing and all..

Now you're making it into me complaining lol..

It over....

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beckdawg · Apr 8, 2018

chibears55 said:
It over....

If only that were true.

Diehardfan · Apr 8, 2018

chibears55 said:
Oh stop already with this...

I made a simple post showing the average of their 4 outfielders..
That all

You turned it into a an advanced stat thing and all..

Now you're making it into me complaining lol..

It over....

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Exactly. Some people can't live without some sort of metric mumbo jumbo computing what happened in the past while trying to project the future. Guess what? Unless you have Doc Brown's Delorean, no one will consistently predict the future. Just let them play the fucking game and see what happens.

chibears55 · Apr 8, 2018

beckdawg said:
If only that were true.

Why do you plan on continuing this conversation that should of never gotten to where it is ?

Youre the one who turned a simple post of me just showing the current batting average of the cubs 4 outfielders into something it wasnt ..

So go ahead if you wanna throw some more advanced stats that wasn't really needed for my origional post for you to prove anything...

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CubsFaninMN · Apr 8, 2018

KCbear said:
Did anyone else see Contreras yelling fuck you to somebody when he got to 3rd?

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Yes. I was on the phone, talking with my sweet 86-year-old mother, at the time. We both were watching the game as we talked.

So, Mom says "What was Contreras saying, uh, doing there?" I stutter (I mean, this is my Mom, I usually don't swear in front of her) and finally say "Um, I think he was saying fock you, like three times." I even pronounced it wrong.

So, my sweet Mom says, "I know *that*, who was he yelling 'fuck you' at, do you think?"

I'm not absolutely certain, but that may be the first time I have ever heard my Mom use that word...

KCbear · Apr 8, 2018

CubsFaninMN said:
Yes. I was on the phone, talking with my sweet 86-year-old mother, at the time. We both were watching the game as we talked.

So, Mom says "What was Contreras saying, uh, doing there?" I stutter (I mean, this is my Mom, I usually don't swear in front of her) and finally say "Um, I think he was saying fock you, like three times." I even pronounced it wrong.

So, my sweet Mom says, "I know *that*, who was he yelling 'fuck you' at, do you think?"

I'm not absolutely certain, but that may be the first time I have ever heard my Mom use that word...

I saw a tweet earlier that he was jawing at the brewers dugout with someone... something stemming from Venezuela winter ball. Whatever lol cracked me up

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beckdawg · Apr 8, 2018

chibears55 said:
Why do you plan on continuing this conversation that should of never gotten to where it is ?

I don't. But considering you've been complaining about Almora and Heywards batting average since spring training I some how don't believe your point here was simply pointing out statistical information. Clearly you have an axe to grind which I doubt is going to die any time soon.

CubsFaninMN · Apr 8, 2018

Guys? Please, please, please always recall...

Any numbers right now come from a...

***SMALL SAMPLE SIZE***

You really can't tell anything from 10 games or so. Give it another two or three weeks before you can even start talking about actual trends.

Also, please recall that some guys just generally have slow Aprils. I recall Rizzo batting below .200 for much of April, 2016, for one thing. No one was concerned, because we all know Rizzo has slow Aprils. He usually ends up batting between .290 and .310 for the season.

It happens. It's people, who aren't perfect (and are too complex to be accurately modeled), and it's baseball. Shit happens.

The time to start flogging season stats to date is around the all-star break. Let's enjoy watching it develop over the next couple of months, shall we?

chibears55 · Apr 8, 2018

beckdawg said:
I don't. But considering you've been complaining about Almora and Heywards batting average since spring training I some how don't believe your point here was simply pointing out statistical information. Clearly you have an axe to grind which I doubt is going to die any time soon.

I actually was just pointing it out..
I had looked cause i was curious to see how everyone was doing so far and noticed 3 of the 4 outfielders were under .200..
I actually thought Schwarber was doing much better..
Then while i was posting it, i was thinking that there really no one in system now or at least in Iowa, that they can bring up if needed like Happ..
So it was an innocent post..lol

Heyward yea.. i just dont think he going to be any better then what he has shown.. he'll have good AB and good games but i think overall were all going to still be frustrated with him..

Almora.. i only mentioned him once in ST early on and he picked it up after that.. him i have high hopes for, as ive been wanting to see him take over CF since ST last year..
I love the way he plays the game and with Happ struggling, i hope Maddon gives him a good opportunity to prove himself by letting him start a few games in a row..

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beckdawg · Apr 8, 2018

Since we're bringing up stats today...

Heyward average exit velocity
2018 93.1 mph
2017 86.4 mph
2016 86.6 mph
2015 89.3 mph

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