IST: Cubs vs. Pirates

beckdawg

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So, one of the concerns coming into this year with the offense was the team has been a high k rate team. One thing I find interesting is excluding Happ specifically and Contreras/Schwarber to a lessor degree that hasn't been the issue. Excluding pitching the offense has 81 k's so far. A whopping 17(20.9%) are Happ. Schwarber has 11 And Willy has 10. If you exclude those 3 players the rest of the cubs have 43 k's in 265 PAs for a 16.2% k rate. Bryant is on pace for his goal to have 1:1 bb:k ratio at 17.4%/15.2% bb/k rate). Zobrist's is double his walks to k rate at 13.8%/6.9%. Russell is 13.9%/11.1%. Heyward is some what similar k rate wise to last year but his walk rate is up about 3% at 12.1%/15.2%. Hell even Baez who has had big issues there is at 14.7%/20.6%(props to him). Rizzo has struggled some and K's are up vs last year for him but the still are decent enough at 21.9%.

If I'm being honest i'd expect it to go up some from the 16.2% rate it's at but if they are in the 18-20% range that would be a big deal for a team that had a 21.1% k rate last year. As an example here, if you take their numbers last year and reduce the k rate to say 18% they would go from 1250 k's to 1068 and if you assume those balls instead go into play at the teams .305 BABIP, you're talking about roughly 55 more hits which would raise the team batting average from .263 to .273. That's likely a rough figure as I'd imagine some of the K's instead become walks but 10 points in BA/OBP seems fairly plausible for a 3% dip in k rate.
 
CSF77

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Man 86 out here today. Sorry about that snow issue.
 
CSF77

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beckdawg said:
So, one of the concerns coming into this year with the offense was the team has been a high k rate team. One thing I find interesting is excluding Happ specifically and Contreras/Schwarber to a lessor degree that hasn't been the issue. Excluding pitching the offense has 81 k's so far. A whopping 17(20.9%) are Happ. Schwarber has 11 And Willy has 10. If you exclude those 3 players the rest of the cubs have 43 k's in 265 PAs for a 16.2% k rate. Bryant is on pace for his goal to have 1:1 bb:k ratio at 17.4%/15.2% bb/k rate). Zobrist's is double his walks to k rate at 13.8%/6.9%. Russell is 13.9%/11.1%. Heyward is some what similar k rate wise to last year but his walk rate is up about 3% at 12.1%/15.2%. Hell even Baez who has had big issues there is at 14.7%/20.6%(props to him). Rizzo has struggled some and K's are up vs last year for him but the still are decent enough at 21.9%.

If I'm being honest i'd expect it to go up some from the 16.2% rate it's at but if they are in the 18-20% range that would be a big deal for a team that had a 21.1% k rate last year. As an example here, if you take their numbers last year and reduce the k rate to say 18% they would go from 1250 k's to 1068 and if you assume those balls instead go into play at the teams .305 BABIP, you're talking about roughly 55 more hits which would raise the team batting average from .263 to .273. That's likely a rough figure as I'd imagine some of the K's instead become walks but 10 points in BA/OBP seems fairly plausible for a 3% dip in k rate.
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Maddon is not going to shake the confidence of his guys by making panic moves. He is looking at the micro adjustments. Like taking a pitch the other way even if the result was a strike out he was not dead pulling.

I think we get wrapped up into the results but coaching and Managment look at the process more then the bottom line.

Case in point is Happ. He is going the other way but the results have not been there yet. After his solid spring he is going to get the time to figure it out due to the law of averages. Now if he was just having poor AB’s and was locked into a bad habit then you would expect a demote.
 
anotheridiot

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chibears55 said:
Nope.. just like he did with Schwarber, he gonna ride that horse til it either takes off or fall to the ground..

Only difference this year though is there will be more of a rotation there between Happ and Almora..

Only other guy we may see there will be Zobrist..

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Eventually they might even be able to give Willson a shot up there. He definitely is one of the faster guys, plays closer to every day as Bryant and Rizzo, and is showing patience Yeah, 10 k's in 40 PA is not good, but its better than the other options.
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
Maddon is not going to shake the confidence of his guys by making panic moves. He is looking at the micro adjustments. Like taking a pitch the other way even if the result was a strike out he was not dead pulling.

I think we get wrapped up into the results but coaching and Managment look at the process more then the bottom line.

Case in point is Happ. He is going the other way but the results have not been there yet. After his solid spring he is going to get the time to figure it out due to the law of averages. Now if he was just having poor AB’s and was locked into a bad habit then you would expect a demote.
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? Not sure why this is replying to me. The point of my post had 0 to do with Happ. The point of my post was seemingly the rest of the roster was improving which is likely a good sign toward Chili. The only reason I even mentioned Happ was because if I didn't there'd be the obvious points toward him. But either way, my aim here was to point toward the good things that were happening not the bad.
 
CSF77

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beckdawg said:
? Not sure why this is replying to me. The point of my post had 0 to do with Happ. The point of my post was seemingly the rest of the roster was improving which is likely a good sign toward Chili. The only reason I even mentioned Happ was because if I didn't there'd be the obvious points toward him. But either way, my aim here was to point toward the good things that were happening not the bad.
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I agree with you. I’m not one to complain on some slow starts when you are 5-4. To me that is nit picking and looking for reasons to complain.

I see the line up as in process and not what it will be at seasons end. I can look at some things like Heyward’s exit velocity which is a great sign. He just needs to not play into the shift as much and look for mistake pitches early count vs swinging into it. Now the 13% walk rate shows that he is doing just that so that over rides his end result and just puts it into a slow start issue.

Happ would concern me more if he was just pulling into the shift. And he is getting shifted. His SO’s might be a result of him trying to do too much to keep out of it. I’m not sure on that honestly. IMO putting the ball in the air beats the shift normally.
 
CubsFaninMN

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Recall, too, that Happ's pattern from last year was really, really streaky. He'll tear the cover off the ball for two weeks, then go cold for another two weeks. As he matures, the up-and-down thing will even out some.
 
chibears55

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Rizzo placed on DL, retroactive to Apr 6th..

He'll be out til at least next monday

No mention on who replacing him on roster

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TL1961

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chibears55 said:
Rizzo placed on DL, retroactive to Apr 6th..

He'll be out til at least next monday

No mention on who replacing him on roster

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Can they play Zobrist at 1st?
 
CSF77

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chibears55 said:
Rizzo placed on DL, retroactive to Apr 6th..

He'll be out til at least next monday

No mention on who replacing him on roster

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Hope it is Bote. But honestly the smart approach would be to promote Gimenez and free up Cartini to play 1B.

But Iowa stats:

Bote: .333/.333/1.00 (6 AB)
Gimenez: .333/.333/.1.00 (3 AB)
Zagunis: .300/.364/.300 (10 AB)

Those are the 3 that you would look at. If you want to start Bote's clock and get him some exposure early in it makes sense but in general having Cartini able to hit with out the concern of losing you back up makes plenty of sense also.
 
CSF77

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TL1961 said:
Can they play Zobrist at 1st?
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Yes. I personally like his bat at 1B the most. It opens up playing time for Baez at 2B.

This can go a few ways but I would look at it from a bench perspective. Does freeing up Cartini to be a primary PH impact more or less than getting MLB AB's for Bote.
 

beckdawg

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Can't imagine you'd bring up gimenez because he doesn't have the options afaik.
 
chibears55

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TL1961 said:
Can they play Zobrist at 1st?
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He was going to play 1st today..

With Rizzo going on DL and just 3 extra bats on bench, they need to bring someone up..

My guess is Bote

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chibears55

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CSF77 said:
Hope it is Bote. But honestly the smart approach would be to promote Gimenez and free up Cartini to play 1B.

But Iowa stats:

Bote: .333/.333/1.00 (6 AB)
Gimenez: .333/.333/.1.00 (3 AB)
Zagunis: .300/.364/.300 (10 AB)

Those are the 3 that you would look at. If you want to start Bote's clock and get him some exposure early in it makes sense but in general having Cartini able to hit with out the concern of losing you back up makes plenty of sense also.
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I was thinking Gimenez but im not sure if theyd wanna bring him up and then send him back down next week..

Im guessing Bote but yea i guess Gimenez would make more sense

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DrGonzo

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chibears55 said:
Rizzo placed on DL, retroactive to Apr 6th..

He'll be out til at least next monday

No mention on who replacing him on roster

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I know it's early and this is all just to protect him for later when it counts. That said, it's still just a bit worrisome.

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CSF77

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beckdawg said:
Can't imagine you'd bring up gimenez because he doesn't have the options afaik.
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Not sure how it works with a guy like him. I’m guessing that he could just accept the demote
 
CSF77

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That said I would rather see Bote in. Add some RH punch on the bench.
 
CSF77

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DrGonzo said:
I know it's early and this is all just to protect him for later when it counts. That said, it's still just a bit worrisome.

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I’m honestly not worried. He has time and they have excess depth to be able to cover it. Honestly Zo is hot right now and Baez has put on a show early on. You want both every day. Rizzo was off and seeing his back issue it makes sense why.

End of the day they are better with him out because his O was not there.
 

beckdawg

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CSF77 said:
Not sure how it works with a guy like him. I’m guessing that he could just accept the demote
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Well there's a couple of issues with this assuming he no longer has options. One I assume he's still on a split contract meaning putting him on the active roster would immediately elevate his salary which if it's only for a week means you're then paying him every day more money than you otherwise would. And also, if he has no options to put him back in AAA would require he pass through waivers which may or may not happen.

That's why I'd be surprised to see him come up now. I think we will see him this year but him coming up because of a short term injury doesn't make much sense to me. If I had to guess it would be either Zagunis, Hannemann or Bote and that largely depends on what they are looking for. Bote can play 1B. The other two would be more targeted as either defensive replacement type in the case of Hannemann or potential short term lead off type hitter in Zagunis though given the way Zobrist is playing if it's not going to be Happ and it's not going to be Almora I'd assume it's almost certainly going to be Zobrist.
 
CSF77

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Pretty sure you are going to see Zo hitting 3rd at 1B until Rizzo returns. You still have LaStella backing Baez up at 2B which frees him for SS. OF you have Schwarber/Happ/Heyward. Almora in CF moves Happ to a corner spot. Zag makes sense to take the other corner then.

It makes sense to add Zag honestly.
 
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