Random cubs/baseball talks

chibears55 · May 20, 2018

CubsFaninMN said:
Speaking of potential rest-of-season rentals... does anyone think it possible that the Nats will be tanking enough by the TD that they might shop Harper around as a rental? Especially if some of their key pitching goes on extended visits to the DL?

I could see management pulling that kind of trigger to try and cash in on a rental of a soon-to-be FA. Especially if Scherzer and/or Strasberg, who have proven to be somewhat fragile at times, should go on the DL and the team fade far enough back that cashing in on a rental starts to make sense...

I dont think their tanking now..
But
As far as trading Harper etc. will be determined by IF the Braves and Phillies are still on top of the division come July and how far off the Nats are from a playoff spot..

Can you Imagine how much a team can improve offensively by adding a Machado or Harper to it for a world series run in the last 2 months and into playoffs..

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anotheridiot · May 21, 2018

chibears55 said:
I never said it was a rumored deal..

I simply suggested that if they didn't want to do a rental deal for Machado that Andrus is available

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but you implied that the thinking is we need to replace Russell. Kasper still thinks he is going to be an MVP some day. Isn't the only reason there is talk on the subject simply because there is a bigger name SS/3B available on the market for the right price? Suggesting Andrus means you want Russell replaced.

chibears55 · May 21, 2018

anotheridiot said:
but you implied that the thinking is we need to replace Russell. Kasper still thinks he is going to be an MVP some day. Isn't the only reason there is talk on the subject simply because there is a bigger name SS/3B available on the market for the right price? Suggesting Andrus means you want Russell replaced.

If given the choice of hoping Russell figures it out and stays consistent or a proven Andrus, me I'd take Andrus now..

Not that I dont like Russell or hope he doesn't turn the corner offensively, just like to see some consistency on the positive end at this point in his career now.

Also the cubs are in a win now stage..

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CSF77 · May 21, 2018

chibears55 said:
If given the choice of hoping Russell figures it out and stays consistent or a proven Andrus, me I'd take Andrus now..

Not that I dont like Russell or hope he doesn't turn the corner offensively, just like to see some consistency on the positive end at this point in his career now.

Also the cubs are in a win now stage..

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I think that this becomes a bigger issue if Happ and Almora both deserve full time play. At that point you could argue trading Russell to move Baez to SS full time.

But I really doubt that this would be the scenario playing out. I see Theo holding the cards for now. He is stacked ATM and can use those pieces when a real need comes up bs a desire

chibears55 · May 21, 2018

CSF77 said:
I think that this becomes a bigger issue if Happ and Almora both deserve full time play. At that point you could argue trading Russell to move Baez to SS full time.

But I really doubt that this would be the scenario playing out. I see Theo holding the cards for now. He is stacked ATM and can use those pieces when a real need comes up bs a desire

Why you cant write off the possibility of trading for Machado...

If they can't come to an agreement on extension, cubs at the very least can fall back to Baez at SS and Zobrist Happ at 2B with LaStella..
Obviously there other moves they can make ..
But
losing Russell won't set them back if they dont retain Machado, and adding Machado for a WS run this year will be an upgrade to the offense ..

Could be one of a reason why their pushing Happ and Baez to step up their game more

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Omeletpants · May 21, 2018

Russell is replaceable and nothing special as a SS

CSF77 · May 21, 2018

chibears55 said:
Why you cant write off the possibility of trading for Machado...

If they can't come to an agreement on extension, cubs at the very least can fall back to Baez at SS and Zobrist Happ at 2B with LaStella..
Obviously there other moves they can make ..
But
losing Russell won't set them back if they dont retain Machado, and adding Machado for a WS run this year will be an upgrade to the offense ..

Could be one of a reason why their pushing Happ and Baez to step up their game more

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Key to what I said was need vs desire.

They currently do not need Machado to win.

Now if one of their starting 5 or if they lose Morrow then the scenario changes.

2016 was a diffrent scenario. They were owning the league but Theo knew that the pen was a weakness that was going to get exploited. So there was a clear need going on. They were lacking a essential part and the cost was steep.

Now on valuing Russell. Honestly I’m not going to get into that because I’m not a pro scout. My opinion holds little weight there.

Is his celing limited? Who knows. His shoulder was injured last season which gave him the tag of noodle arm. But the year before he was making impossible plays look easy. Is he a top D SS. TOP 5 Is not out of his reach. I think that his bat prevents the love needed to win it though as a GG is very opinionated

chibears55 · May 21, 2018

CSF77 said:
Key to what I said was need vs desire.

They currently do not need Machado to win.

Lol

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CSF77 · May 21, 2018

chibears55 said:
Lol

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The thing is: Most of their loses have come from a pitcher not performing that day. And it happens. Guys lose a feel for a pitch or they just miss a location on a pitch or in Wilson’s case goes wild thing.

This team scores runs. What they have to improve on is run prevention. And that falls in errors. Russell honestly is giving plus at a higher impact spot.

What impacts the Cubs the most right now is:

1. Getting the rotation concistant as you can. 2016 the rotation was not the most talented but it was the most concistant.

2. Finding someone that stablizes the pen late inning. Edwards and Wilson can be as black and white as it gets.

3. Tinkering. That is where upgrading a set position player goes. It falls back into “wouldnt it be nice”

beckdawg · May 21, 2018

I find perception funny. Perception is currently Russell is expendable and they'd keep Baez for sure. Do you realize Russell is hitting .262/.352/.369 while Baez is hitting .268/.299/.565. Obviously Baez has shown substantially more power but Russell is crushing him in OBP. Baez's bb/k rate is also sort of alarming at 3.4%/22.6%. For him the 22.6% k rate is great but that's basically as low a walk rate you will see from a major league player. Last year the 3 worst walk rates among qualified players were Tim Anderson(2.1%), Alcides Escobar(2.4%) and Brandon Phillips(3.5%). In other words, Baez is in that territory. Anderson was just a bad hitter last year(78 wRC+) but the other two relied on a much lower k rate at 16.2% and 12.1% respectively.

In contrast, Russell's BB/K rate is 11.7%/20.4%. That walk rate is fantastic. It's 1.5% below Bryant/Rizzo range. K rate is more league average but just as a comparison here, that BB/K rate is fairly similar to Choo who hit .261/.357/.423 or Yelich who hit .282/.369/.439. Russell just needs to find his power after what I imagine is him adjusting his swing for more contact hence the lower k rate. He's currently hitting for a .106 ISO. The previous 2 years he was .179. You put another ~70 points on his slugging and you're talking about a .260/.350/.440 hitter. An .800 OPS is like 110 wRC+ for a gold clove caliber SS that's fine.

I'm not suggesting they should deal Baez merely pointing out some context here. Russell needs to get better with RISP but Baez has had the most opps on the team and he's as bad if not worse than Russell. With Baez I'm not even sure what to make of him anymore. I thought I knew what he was before the season. Then he stopped striking out as much and started to hit RHP.... but that came at the cost of hitting LHP which he used to dominate. I then thought he'd broken through but now it looks more like that was just one of his hot streaks because he's been no where near as good in may.

CSF77 · May 21, 2018

beckdawg said:
I find perception funny. Perception is currently Russell is expendable and they'd keep Baez for sure. Do you realize Russell is hitting .262/.352/.369 while Baez is hitting .268/.299/.565. Obviously Baez has shown substantially more power but Russell is crushing him in OBP. Baez's bb/k rate is also sort of alarming at 3.4%/22.6%. For him the 22.6% k rate is great but that's basically as low a walk rate you will see from a major league player. Last year the 3 worst walk rates among qualified players were Tim Anderson(2.1%), Alcides Escobar(2.4%) and Brandon Phillips(3.5%). In other words, Baez is in that territory. Anderson was just a bad hitter last year(78 wRC+) but the other two relied on a much lower k rate at 16.2% and 12.1% respectively.

In contrast, Russell's BB/K rate is 11.7%/20.4%. That walk rate is fantastic. It's 1.5% below Bryant/Rizzo range. K rate is more league average but just as a comparison here, that BB/K rate is fairly similar to Choo who hit .261/.357/.423 or Yelich who hit .282/.369/.439. Russell just needs to find his power after what I imagine is him adjusting his swing for more contact hence the lower k rate. He's currently hitting for a .106 ISO. The previous 2 years he was .179. You put another ~70 points on his slugging and you're talking about a .260/.350/.440 hitter. An .800 OPS is like 110 wRC+ for a gold clove caliber SS that's fine.

I'm not suggesting they should deal Baez merely pointing out some context here. Russell needs to get better with RISP but Baez has had the most opps on the team and he's as bad if not worse than Russell. With Baez I'm not even sure what to make of him anymore. I thought I knew what he was before the season. Then he stopped striking out as much and started to hit RHP.... but that came at the cost of hitting LHP which he used to dominate. I then thought he'd broken through but now it looks more like that was just one of his hot streaks because he's been no where near as good in may.

He might just be a streaky hitter honestly.

My take on Baez is slash. He provides plus depth for Maddon and if became a every day player then his flaws would start to show.

chibears55 · May 21, 2018

beckdawg said:
I find perception funny. Perception is currently Russell is expendable and they'd keep Baez for sure. Do you realize Russell is hitting .262/.352/.369 while Baez is hitting .268/.299/.565. Obviously Baez has shown substantially more power but Russell is crushing him in OBP. Baez's bb/k rate is also sort of alarming at 3.4%/22.6%. For him the 22.6% k rate is great but that's basically as low a walk rate you will see from a major league player. Last year the 3 worst walk rates among qualified players were Tim Anderson(2.1%), Alcides Escobar(2.4%) and Brandon Phillips(3.5%). In other words, Baez is in that territory. Anderson was just a bad hitter last year(78 wRC+) but the other two relied on a much lower k rate at 16.2% and 12.1% respectively.

In contrast, Russell's BB/K rate is 11.7%/20.4%. That walk rate is fantastic. It's 1.5% below Bryant/Rizzo range. K rate is more league average but just as a comparison here, that BB/K rate is fairly similar to Choo who hit .261/.357/.423 or Yelich who hit .282/.369/.439. Russell just needs to find his power after what I imagine is him adjusting his swing for more contact hence the lower k rate. He's currently hitting for a .106 ISO. The previous 2 years he was .179. You put another ~70 points on his slugging and you're talking about a .260/.350/.440 hitter. An .800 OPS is like 110 wRC+ for a gold clove caliber SS that's fine.

I'm not suggesting they should deal Baez merely pointing out some context here. Russell needs to get better with RISP but Baez has had the most opps on the team and he's as bad if not worse than Russell. With Baez I'm not even sure what to make of him anymore. I thought I knew what he was before the season. Then he stopped striking out as much and started to hit RHP.... but that came at the cost of hitting LHP which he used to dominate. I then thought he'd broken through but now it looks more like that was just one of his hot streaks because he's been no where near as good in may.

You make a good point..
But
I'm just guessing here but I think as far as cubs management goes, they probably prefer Baez defensive ability to be able to play 2B SS 3B 1B and if it came to it OF.

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beckdawg · May 21, 2018

chibears55 said:
You make a good point..
But
I'm just guessing here but I think as far as cubs management goes, they probably prefer Baez defensive ability to be able to play 2B SS 3B 1B and if it came to it OF.

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I mean if Russell is a better SS he can play the same positions Baez can. Maybe not 3B given their difference in arm strength but rest he should be fine at.

chibears55 · May 21, 2018

CSF77 said:
The thing is: Most of their loses have come from a pitcher not performing that day. And it happens. Guys lose a feel for a pitch or they just miss a location on a pitch or in Wilson’s case goes wild thing.

This team scores runs. What they have to improve on is run prevention. And that falls in errors. Russell honestly is giving plus at a higher impact spot.

What impacts the Cubs the most right now is:

1. Getting the rotation concistant as you can. 2016 the rotation was not the most talented but it was the most concistant.

2. Finding someone that stablizes the pen late inning. Edwards and Wilson can be as black and white as it gets.

3. Tinkering. That is where upgrading a set position player goes. It falls back into “wouldnt it be nice”

You need to look beyond the regular season here...
The main goal for this team isn't just to win the division, it to win the World Series..

Taking nothing away from what Russell did in 2016 postseason..

But

They get a chance to add a stud with a career .819 OPS and currently hitting
.343 with a 1.070 OPS to the top of the order in Machado for the postseason..
You get him

This lineup hasn't exactly been consistent all year ..
Sure they should all get better but their not a group you can sit back and be 100% comfortable with once the post season starts as we seen..
So adding a solid bat to this lineup is a need for the post season..

Just to pass along..
11 of their 19 losses, they scored 2 or less runs..

So.. it more the offense then pitching for their losses

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chibears55 · May 21, 2018

beckdawg said:
I mean if Russell is a better SS he can play the same positions Baez can. Maybe not 3B given their difference in arm strength but rest he should be fine at.

Maybe...
But who knows

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chibears55 · May 21, 2018

Makes you go hmmmm..
Winning with Alberto

https://twitter.com/laurencomitor/status/998668328288903169?s=19

https://twitter.com/MLBBruceLevine/status/998675581645590528?s=19

Their Cousins.. thought they were just close childhood friends..

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beckdawg · May 21, 2018

chibears55 said:
Makes you go hmmmm..
Winning with Alberto

https://twitter.com/laurencomitor/status/998668328288903169?s=19

https://twitter.com/MLBBruceLevine/status/998675581645590528?s=19

Their Cousins.. thought they were just close childhood friends..

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Yeah I knew they were friends but wasn't aware they were literal blood relatives.

chibears55 · May 21, 2018

beckdawg said:
Yeah I knew they were friends but wasn't aware they were literal blood relatives.

You have to think..
If Machado truly desires to play with Almora and wants to win a WS with him, or at least try..
Cubs are definately in that position now and for next couple years..

You'd think he'd be ok with signing / agreeing to an extension to make a trade happen...

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TL1961 · May 21, 2018

chibears55 said:
You have to think..
If Machado truly desires to play with Almora and wants to win a WS with him, or at least try..
Cubs are definately in that position now and for next couple years..

You'd think he'd be ok with signing / agreeing to an extension to make a trade happen...

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I wouldn’t be so quick to assume he will sign an extension. A trade to a contender is happening. No way Baltimore gets nothing. And he will be #1 or 2 sought after FA. Why not test the market? I would be shocked if he signed an extension.

chibears55 · May 21, 2018

TL1961 said:
I wouldn’t be so quick to assume he will sign an extension. A trade to a contender is happening. No way Baltimore gets nothing. And he will be #1 or 2 sought after FA. Why not test the market? I would be shocked if he signed an extension.

I only brought it up because of the Almora connection...
Wouldn't blame him for going after the biggest deal he can get..

But

What if the cubs offer is 30 per for say 5 yrs and maybe options on yr 5 through 7 or something like that..

What other teams out there needs a big time SS, can pay more money, and is close to winning..

And

Has a cousin he wants to play with..lol

I mean that are something he needs to think about if such trade is contingent on an extension..
How much more money then the cubs offer is worth fulfilling a dream with his cousin now, and would it be there this offseason..

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