If running back Ashton Jeanty is still available when the Chicago Bears are on the clock at No. 10, it won’t take long for general manager Ryan Poles and company to turn their card in. However, as the draft inches closer, that possibility is looking less and less likely.
Jeanty is not only the consensus No. 1 running back in the draft, but he has numerous franchises prepared to buck conventional draft wisdom. It’s usually recommended not to take a running back in the first round, due to the depth at the position and longevity of careers. But not only is Jeanty destined to go into the first-round, it’d be a shock if he fell out of the top 10 picks.
The Las Vegas Raiders, who hold the No. 6 overall pick, have been heavily connected to Jeanty. Because of that, and the overall interest in the running back, Jeanty only has a 13 percent chance to make it to the Bears at No. 10, via Seth Walder of ESPN.
“Jeanty’s likeliest landing spot is No. 6 overall (Raiders), so the Bears would have to make a deal with the Jaguars at No. 5 if they are married to landing the top running back in a stacked class. Jeanty has a 91% chance to make it to that spot, but those chances drop to 57% after No. 6,” Walder wrote.
“Though this sounds like it should be an easy decision for the Bears, the model gives insight into the hidden cost of trading up,” Walder concluded. “There’s still a 13% chance that Jeanty slides to No. 10 on his own, which means the Bears could squander extra draft capital for nothing.”
Chicago Bears trade up option
The Bears can avoid any bad odds by simply trading ahead of the Raiders with the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 5. Assuming Travis Hunter and/or Abdul Carter off the board, the Jaguars could be interested in accumulating more draft capital in Liam Coen’s first year as head coach. Especially with what they could ask from the Bears to move into the top five.
While the idea of Jeanty in Ben Johnson’s new offense is tantalizing, Chicago must be cautious with their draft capital. They hold four picks inside the top 75, giving the organization plenty of room to move up the board. However, it’s not like running back is the only area of need on Chicago’s roster.
By losing any of their mid round picks, the Bears no longer have the opportunity to address their offensive or defensive lines. While they bolstered them plenty in free agency, Chicago is looking for long-term success, not just a flash in the 2025 plan.
There’s no doubting that Jeanty is towards the top of the Bears’ big board. They are desperately hoping their 13 percent odds come up in their favor. But if the running back’s name is called prior to No. 10, Chicago must be prepared.
Ashton Jeanty pivots
Losing out on Jeanty would be a major blow for the Bears. However, it means the team has likely added a building block in the trenches, or a premier playmaker like tight end Tyler Warren. And if they hold onto their two second-rounders and third-round pick, there are plenty of running backs to choose from.
There were five running backs in Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com’s top 50 2025 prospects. Any of Omarion Hampton (No. 13), TreVeyon Henderson (No. 34), Quinshon Judkins (No. 38) or Kaleb Johnson (No. 45) would make an immediate impact in Chicago’s backfield. While it’s easy to speculate on any name, it’s important to note what the Bears are looking for.
Chicago ranked 25th in rushing, averaging 102 yards per game. Lead man D’Andre Swift averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Whoever the Bears draft, they must be able to be consistent with their touches and help Chicago become more of a force on the ground.
Jeanty would fit that bill perfectly, if only he made it to No. 10. Still, the Bears are prepared for any scenarios that may come their way in the draft.
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