Stat shows Bears’ Ryan Poles is among best general managers in the NFL

When it comes to trades few NFL GMs are on the same level as Ryan Poles

Ryan Poles had his work cut out for him when he was hired by the Chicago Bears in 2022.

Two years after being hired, Ryan Poles has completely altered the future of the Chicago Bears, for the better. For the first time since 2018, the Bears have the chance to be a competitive football team. During his time as Chicago  Bears GM, Poles has made trades his bread and butter.

Stats show Ryan Poles has few rivals when trading

Data analyst Steven Patton posted a graph on X( formerly Twitter) that ranks the best and worst active NFL GMs in terms of Net Value Gained via trading since 2020. Ryan Poles ranks number two on this graph.

The graph features each NFL GM with a tenure of at least two years with a single team since 2020. The data is displayed as win rate (%) vs Net Value Gained through trades. There is a general trend that can be observed on this graph. When a GM gains more net value through trading, their teams win percentage tends to increase.

The best and worst active GMs in terms of Net Value Gained through trades since 2020:

1. Chris Ballard
2. Ryan Poles
3. Chris Grier
4. John Schneider
5. Jason Licht
…
23. John Lynch
24. Monti Ossenfort
25. Howie Roseman
26. Les Snead
27. Mickey Loomis pic.twitter.com/xjJBJgHlWe

— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) August 9, 2024

This means Ryan Poles is the second best GM when it comes to creating a positive net value during a trade.

The only general manager who was better at trading during the last four years was Indianapolis Colts GM Chris Ballard. Ballard has the Colts in a similar situation to the Bears. The Colts were in a rough patch after the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck in 2019. He has since rebuilt the Colts in a relatively quick fashion.

What does “net value” even mean?

The number associated with a trades net value is a simplified way to understand the overall gain or loss from a trade. A positive net value indicates that the team likely benefited from the trade, while a negative number suggests a potential loss or disadvantage.

This means that Ryan Poles is the second best GM in the NFL when it comes to maximizing the advantage the Bears gain during a trade. When Poles makes a trade, it gives the Bears even more of an advantage than they had before.

There are obvious outliers, like the Chase Claypool trade for example. That trade was never a ideal trade from the start. The Steelers seemed okay with just giving away Claypool at the time. Giving any assets up to get Claypool was not great.

Different ways a trades net value can be calculated

Net value numbers can be derived from various methods. A trade value chart inspired by the one Jimmy Johnson created is one of said methods.

The J.J trade value chart has largely become outdated due to a league wide pay increase for rookies and the addition of compensatory picks. The groundwork Jimmy Johnson laid is still valuable to this day, and still serves as the framework of modern trade value charts, even if the chart itself didn’t age well.

Player and pick valuations can also be used to calculate the net value of a trade. Some data analysts use detailed evaluations of players’ performances, potential, and salary cap implications. The net value number could quantify the difference between the expected contributions or future potential of the traded players and picks.

For a full in depth breakdown on trade economics and valuations, check out Patton’s Substack article. The article includes over 20 visualizations to help readers understand the mountain of statistics that have been complied on this topic.

Final thoughts

When it comes to determining trade net value, it takes a lot of estimation and prediction. A trades overall net value could change over time. For example, the D.J. Moore trade had a positive net value when Poles pulled the trigger on the deal. The net value Of the trade increased even more in the Bears favor when the first-round pick they received from Carolina became No. 1 overall.

In a fluid industry like profession sports, where the outcome is never certain, net value is an effective metric by which to evaluate a trade. There are many moving parts to an NFL trade and it can take years for the ramifications to truly set in.

This data relays one important message, the Bears are in good hands with Poles as the general manager.

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