Cubs’ rookie Cade Horton’s dominant second half in Jake Arrieta territory

Chicago Cubs fans know all about Jake Arrieta’s legendary second half in 2015. During his Cy Young-winning campaign, Arrieta posted an unbelievable 0.75 ERA over 15 starts after the All-Star break, highlighted by two complete game shutouts and a stretch of pure dominance rarely seen in MLB history.

Fast forward a decade, and history is somewhat repeating itself, this time by rookie Cubs pitcher Cade Horton. While operating on a pitch count, due to a shoulder strain significantly limiting his volume a season ago, Horton has pitched to a 0.77 ERA in the second half this year. He hasn’t thrown more than 82 pitches since August, but has only given up four earned runs over 47.0 innings pitched.

Cade Horton’s dominant second half is currently MLB’s best ever by a rookie

According to Marquee Sports Network, Horton’s second half ranks as the best in MLB history (minimum eight starts) based on ERA. His performance tops a list that includes some elite company. Jose Fernandez is second with a 1.32 ERA in 2013, followed by Jim Turner’s 1.49 ERA in 1937 and Steve Rogers’ 1.50 ERA in 1973.

What has changed for Cade Horton in the second half?

Before the All-Star break, Cade Horton carried a 4.45 ERA over 56.2 innings, but he’s turned a major corner since then, thanks largely to improved results with his fastball. In the second half, opponents are hitting just .183 against the pitch with a .310 slugging percentage and a 20.4% whiff rate. That’s a dramatic jump from the first half, when hitters teed off on his heater for a .361 average, .472 slugging, and just a 12.4% whiff rate.

As impressive as Horton’s second-half breakout has been, drawing comparisons to Arrieta’s historic 2015 run and ranking as the best ever for a rookie, the Cubs are wisely taking the long view. With his pitch count carefully managed following last year’s shoulder strain, prioritizing Horton’s health is clearly the right move, even if it means controversially removing him after five no-hit innings, as they did against the Braves on September 3.

This means the Cubs will need the rest of their pitching staff to step up until the team feels comfortable loosening the reigns on Horton’s workload. The rookie has made the most of his limited time on the mound, now it’s up to the rest of the rotation and bullpen to match his effectiveness and help keep the momentum going.