The Chicago Cubs are in a great spot right now after exceeding preseason expectations with a stellar first half (or so) of the season. Who wouldn’t be okay with being in first place just a few days before the All-Star break?
The offense has been the story of the Cubs’ year thus far. Potent and versatile, it has motored the team’s success for much of the season.
The bullpen has also been a very pleasant surprise.
And the starting rotation? Well, the best you can say is that Matthew Boyd has been outstanding in pitching his way to his first All-Star appearance and that the rotation, as a whole, has held together remarkably well after suffering through bad break after bad break.
The Cubs lost ace Justin Steele for the season after just four starts. They lost projected fifth starter Javier Assad before the season even started. Shota Imanaga missed five weeks due to a hamstring strain. Jameson Taillon is out right now with a right calf strain, expected to miss more than a month. Ben Brown didn’t pan out and was sent back to the minors for re-tooling.
Chicago Cubs trade deadline moves will be crucial
So, if the Cubs want to maintain the feel-good vibe of this season and extended it into the playoffs, the front office needs to make a major starting pitching acquisition or two before the July 31 MLB trade deadline.
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently had a Q&A session with The Athletic that might’ve tipped his hand when it comes to the team’s strategies prior to the deadline.
Best fit vs. best numbers?
First, and perhaps foremost, Hoyer and his staff may be looking beyond a pitcher’s stats and eyeing ideal fits based on where that pitcher is, both mentally and physically.
“There’s a tendency at the deadline to think: “Who’s hot right now? Who’s playing really well?” It is definitely comforting to get that guy who’s doing that.,” Hoyer said. “But at the same time, there’s also a really good argument here: “Listen, this guy’s a good player. He has a good track record, and he’s having a down year.” Sometimes, it’s a matter of time until he plays well.”
To underline that mindset, Hoyer points to the lessons learned from the team passing on Justin Verlander in 2017 and how the acquisition of a key pitcher the following year reinforced his belief that psychology and smart timing trump raw numbers.
“With the Cole Hamels deal, I learned a lesson on Justin Verlander the year before,” Hoyer points out. “He was available in a trade. His stuff was down. He didn’t look good with Detroit. Whenever a player of that age has declining stuff, it’s hard to (know). And then he went to Houston and immediately his stuff ticked up. You try to balance: What is injury? What is age? (It could also be): “I’m frustrated in this bad situation right now
“The next year with Cole Hamels, we didn’t overthink it. He was struggling, and we went and got him. It felt like literally the minute he put our uniform on, he was dominant. That is a little bit of the human factor.”
No rentals, no relievers?
The Cubs may also be looking to eschew 3-month rentals in pursuing arms at the deadline and target pitchers with years remaining of team control. They also may look to avoid big deals involving relievers altogether, preferring to pick up overlooked or underutilized talent as they go.
“For a rental, it may be a little bit harder to make some of those changes and recoup that value (compared to) someone you would control for a year-and-a-half or two-and-a-half years,” Hoyer asserted. “If you’re getting a reliever who’s going to make 15 to 18 appearances, it’s somewhat hard to make significant changes.”
Whatever the case, the Cubs are reported to be “all-in” when it comes to pursuing assets prior to the deadline. The coming days and weeks should be interesting.
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