The 2023 season marked a breakout year for Chicago Cubs left-hander Justin Steele, which gave the organization hope for the future. He made 30 starts and posted a 16-5 record two years ago in 173.1 innings pitched. Steele closed out 2023 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP for a Cubs team that just missed out on a Wild Card spot in the final weeks of the season. Steele’s 3.8 WAR in 2023 was by far the best mark in his career.
Steele was in the running for the CY Young Award two years ago but took a step back in 2024 despite posting similar numbers to the year prior. The southpaw made 24 starts last season and had a 5-5 record to go with his 3.07 ERA. Steele tossed in 134.2 frames as an injury on Opening Day against the Rangers kept him off the mound for about a month. He finished the season with a 1.10 WHIP and a 1.9 WAR.
Plenty is riding on Steele returning to form in 2025 to lead the Cubs rotation alongside Shota Imanaga. The organization desperately needs them to be horses for a pitching staff that is looking to lead the team to the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Unfortunately for Steele, things have not started out the way he would have liked to this year.
Justin Steele doesn’t look like himself
Steele has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his three starts so far this year. His most recent outing against the Athletics on Tuesday was his longest of the year at 6.2 innings, where he gave up four runs on seven hits in the Cubs 7-4 victory. While Steele was a pure gamer in his third start and gave Chicago a chance to win the game despite not having his best stuff, something is clearly off with him.
The left-hander is leaving plenty of his sliders up in the zone, which has led to balls in the gap and over the wall. Athletics’ catcher Shea Langeliers got the best of Steele for a two-run homer on Tuesday, but those were the last runs that he allowed in the game. The Athletics game was the second that the Cubs had won with Steele on the bump this season.
Steele can’t rely on the Chicago offense to score seven or more runs in every game that he starts this season, so something needs to change if the Cubs are hoping to get ace-stuff out of the former 2014 fifth-round draft pick. There is no denying that Steele can be great for the organization when he is on, but the inconsistencies over the past year or so leave room to worry about how much longer he can be relied on as a top-two starter in the rotation.
The Chicago Cubs might need to lean more on the other rotation arms
It will be up to the entire rotation to shoulder the load out of the gate this season. Ben Brown looked sharp in his first start of the campaign against the Athletics on Monday in an 18-3 rout, and he could be called upon in bigger spots down the road if he puts together a solid first full season in the big leagues.
Jameson Taillon had a rough go at it against the Diamondbacks on Friday, and he’ll look to get right against the Athletics on Wednesday. The right-hander is coming off his best season as a Cub, where he had a 3.27 ERA in 28 starts.
Matthew Boyd looked good in his official Cub debut over the weekend against Arizona, but the team couldn’t hold the lead for him as the bullpen imploded in the eighth inning. He and Taillon are in a similar boat as members of the middle of the rotation, and as veterans, they will need to step up.
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