The Chicago Cubs have had no trade remorse when it comes to multi-tool right fielder Kyle Tucker.
The 28-year-old three-time all-star has proven himself to be exactly who the Cubs thought he was when they sent Isaac Paredes, Heyden Wesneski, and Cam Smith to the Houston Astros for him this past December.
The one catch with Tucker, though, was that he’d be eligible for free agency at the end of the 2025 season and would definitely command the kind of multi-year, mega-bucks contract the Cubs ownership has never entertained before.
This reality has led almost everyone to believe that Tucker will be a one-year Cub before moving on to more financially daring organizations.
What The Vladimir Guerrero Extension Means To The Chicago Cubs And Kyle Tucker
This belief became infinitely– and horribly– more firm Sunday night when news broke that the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had agreed on a massive 14-year, $500 million extension.
Removing Guerrero from the 2025 free agent pool now makes Tucker the top position player available for the coming season and, as such, a much more valuable asset.
The Guerrero deal, which pretty much guarantees that the second-generation star will stay a Blue Jay for the entirety of his career, also establishes a market-value salary expectation for elite-level 20-something position players.
A $500 Million Baseline?
Jordan Campbell of Cubbies Crib had hit on that $500 million figure the day before the Guerrero news broke and opined that teams would be willing to cross that line:
“Guerrero not being on the market next offseason would leave Tucker as the best position-player free agent. Given that fact, it wouldn’t be a complete shock if a team like the Philadelphia Phillies would be willing to cross the $500MM threshold on their offer to Tucker next offseason.”
Previous estimates had Tucker, who is two years older than Guerrero, going for as high as $350 million over 10 years, a number in line with the AAV now promised to Guerrero.
Tucker, Already On His Way Out The Door?
But, again, Tucker will be the bright, shiny star of the 2026 free agent class and teams like the Phillies and the Yankees could create quite the bidding war for his services. There is, almost universally, zero confidence that the frugal Cubs ownership has the stomach for such high-stakes bidding wars.
ESPN staff writer Jesse Rogers was already burying Chicago’s chances of re-signing Tucker less than two weeks after Tucker joined the team:
“The addition of a new television network in 2020 hasn’t been the cash cow the team thought it would be, according to sources familiar with the situation. Meanwhile, private equity investment has ownership answering to more than just a handful of local minority investors like it did previously. The bottom line is more of a concern than ever, with some industry observers believing the Cubs won’t sign a megadeal for a player before the next labor agreement is negotiated with the players after the 2026 season.
That means Tucker could be one-and-done at Wrigley Field. After [Juan] Soto helped set the market when he signed for $765 million, the soon-to-be free agent has likely already priced himself out of Chicago. Signing an extension before he hits free agency seems unlikely and some industry observers already believe the odds are low that he will re-sign with Chicago next winter.”
This unpleasant truth is making Tucker’s stellar run so far in 2025 a bittersweet experience for fans as they’re already wrapping their heads around the fact that he may be gone next year.
Guerrero coming off the market has, unfortunately, increased the likelihood that this Cubs-Tucker marriage will be short-lived.
Kyle Tucker becomes first Cubs player in nearly 100 years to do this
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