Illinois Basketball Gameday Preview: vs. Monmouth

The final game of a three-game homestand happens tonight when the Illini take on the Monmouth Hawks

Illinois heads into this Monday night matchup with a 2-0 record after two relatively easy wins over Eastern Illinois and Kansas City. The competition doesn’t get much more difficult with Monmouth coming into town, but that doesn’t change the effort and execution needed for the Illini. This is their final game before they head to Vegas for the Continental Tire Main Event where they will play UCLA and one of Baylor/Virginia.

Projected Starting Lineups

• Monmouth
  • G Myles Ruth (6-foot-0)
  • G Jack Collins (6-foot-5) (Freshman)
  • G Tahron Allen (6-foot-5)
  • F Myles Foster (6-foot-7) (10 pts vs. Seton Hall, 18 pts vs. Virginia)
  • F Klemen Vuga (6-foot-9)

After a solid season in 2021-22 with 21 wins (their final season in the MAAC), the Hawks are relying on many inexperienced players that have been in the program for multiple seasons. Outside of Foster, this lineup has not scored well through two games against quality opponents. He’s the only player in this lineup that played legitimate minutes last season.

• Illinois
  • G Skyy Clark
  • G RJ Melendez
  • G Terrence Shannon Jr.
  • F Matthew Mayer
  • F Coleman Hawkins

I don’t see any lineup changes coming from Underwood in this game. Outside of benching Mayer for Ty Rodgers or Dain Dainja, they will likely roll the same lineup out there. I’ll be curious to see the minutes for Jayden Epps in this game tonight, he was efficient and elite in 24 minutes on Friday night against Kansas City. It’ll also be interesting to see how Dainja follows up back-to-back double-doubles.

The Analytics Between the Two Teams

As per usual, these numbers come from KenPom and Haslametrics.

• KenPom
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency – ILL 40th, Monmouth 307th
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency – ILL 22nd, Monmouth 206th
  • Adjusted Tempo – ILL 69th, Monmouth 112th
• Haslametrics
  • All-Play Percentage – ILL 36th, Monmouth 269th
  • Offensive Efficiency – ILL 42nd, Monmouth 264th
  • Defensive Efficiency – ILL  33rd, Monmouth 242nd

No surprise that the Illini have a significant analytical advantage in this game. One interesting stat is the adjusted tempo from both teams, the Hawks will be more willing to run the floor than the previous two Illini opponents. I still think if Illinois turns this into a track meet, they will have a lot of success. Their defense is well-equipped to shut down the Monmouth offense in the manner that both Seton Hall and Virginia did, holding them to 52 points and 42 points. Another key to the game will be the turnover battle, the Hawks have 44 turnovers in two games, and the Illini had just 11 turnovers in their win over KC.

Players to Watch & Prediction

• Players to Watch
  • Monmouth – F Myles Foster
    • As I mentioned above, Foster has been the only positive on the offensive end for them. He draws a tough matchup with the size and versatility that Illinois has. I’m looking for Shannon Jr., Hawkins, and Mayer to be all over him tonight.
  • Illinois – G Skyy Clark
    • Clark was incredibly calm and controlled in the Illini’s last game, he had zero turnovers and had 10 points on 2 of 3 shooting with 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals. I would like to see how he follows that up in another favorable matchup with Myles Ruth and other guards for the Hawks.
• Predictions
  • Illinois wins 94-53

The Illini should have no issues blowing Monmouth out. I don’t see how they can hang around with Illinois, their offense doesn’t have enough scoring to do so. However, the Illini can’t downplay any opponent, just take care of business and they’ll be 3-0 heading into Vegas.

Illinois Basketball Game No. 3 Recap: Illini Obliterate Monmouth

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