The Chicago Cubs May Look to Sign Homegrown Lefty to an Extension

The Chicago Cubs may look to make another move this off season, but this may come in house with a contract extension for left hander Justin Steele.

After the news that the Chicago Cubs made what could be one of the top trades of the off season for outfielder Kyle Tucker a report written by Patrick Mooney and Tim Britton of The Athletic projected that the Chicago Cubs are going to sign left-handed pitcher Justin Steele to a contract extension.

Steele, who will enter the 2025 season at 29-years-old has been in the Chicago Cubs organization ever since he was drafted by the team in the 5th round of the 2014 MLB June Amateur Draft out of George County High School in Lucedale, Mississippi. In four years with the Cubs Steele has accumulated 484 innings pitched, a record of 29-21, an ERA of 3.24, 496 strikeouts and a career WAR of 8.3.  Steeles best season thus far came in 2023 when he had a 16-5 record with a 3.06 ERA, 176 strikeouts, lead the league in HR/9 (.7), as well as being named an All-Star and finishing the year fifth in the Cy Young voting.

The Article

According to Mooney and Britton they propose that the Chicago Cubs should offer Justin Steele a six-year $96 million contract which comes to an AAV (Average Annual Value) of $16 million a year. This deal would buyout all of Steele’s arbitration years (he’s currently in his first year), as well as the first three years he would be eligible to become a free agent. At this AAV according to Spotrac this would tie Steele in salary with Miles Mikolas of the St. Louis Cardinals and Kyle Freeland of the Colorado Rockies. Steele is far and away better than both Freeland and Mikolas both of whom has career ERAs north of 4.

Steele By the Numbers

I would say Justin Steele would deserve a far better deal than that of what Patrick Mooney and Tim Britton proposed. With a need for starting pitch throughout the MLB at a premium and with the way the price tag for it only going up since the start of this year’s free agency, I believe if the Chicago Cubs want to retain a pitcher of Justin Steeles talents they’re going to have to pony up and pay.

When looking at Steeles Baseball Savant page from this past season it really stands out. He was in the 94th percentile in both xERA (2.74) and Barrel% (4.2). As well having a great batting average with hitters slashing .219/.276/.336 with an OPS of .612. This past season Steele was just as stellar as his 2023 season. Managing to make 24 starts (missed time with a hamstring injury) Steele had a 5-5 record with a 3.07 ERA with 135 strikeouts in 134.2 innings.

What’s it Going to Take?

The qualifying offer on player this off season was set at $21.05 million which I think would be a fair market rate for someone of Justin Steeles talents. He is currently in the prime of his career and as I said with there being a need for starting pitching all throughout the league the onus is on the Cubs to get a deal done this off season. A lot of times nowadays pitchers, but especially starting pitchers, rarely stay with one team through their whole career and the Chicago Cubs have a perfect opportunity to Justin Steele a permanent member of the organization.

I would think since there’s such a need for starting pitching especially for the Chicago Cubs who still lack an “Ace” for the rotation they really need to think about retaining someone like Steele should be a priority given he is a strong #2 type starter.

The Cubs need to start thing about extending Steele and their rotation for the future. Currently their rotation figures to be: 1. Imanaga 2. Steele 3. Taillon 4. Boyd. 5. Javier Assad. Boyd who the Cubs just recently signed will become a free agent after next season as well as Taillon. And “Ace” of the staff Shota Imanaga has three team options available for ’26-’28 which are going be determined on how well he does season by season.

Given Steeles age and his talent level in the league I would say Steele is going to require a 5–7-year deal. To meet in the middle I would be fine with giving Steele six-years with an AAV of $21.05 million (same as the qualifying offer) which brings the total deal to six-year $129 million. The signing of this deal as I said would buyout all of Steeles arbitration years as well as his first three year of being eligible to be a free agent and bring him to the age of 35.

With Steele slated to make $7.95 million this season according to Spotrac this $13.1 million raise would be well deserved for a guy who was a Cy Young finalist a year ago. This would tie him at 17th overall for AAV with the Cincinnati Reds Nick Martinez who accepted the qualifying off this off season and just below Yusei Kukuchi ($21.23 million).

Having someone like Justin Steele be an anchor for this Chicago Cubs rotation for years to come would be exactly what this team needs to do in order to build a championship roster. With a solid group of young positional players coming and a few pitching prospects like Cade Horton coming down the pike, having Steele be that nice veteran presence at some point once those guys debut would be a benefit to the Cubs. For now, nothing is set in stone, but the word is now out there, and the Cubs should in fact be thinking seriously of extending Justin Steele.

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