The Chicago Cubs are seriously down on their luck.
The team has posted a feeble 3-7 record in their last 10 games and has fallen 9 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central Division. They’re also now in danger of losing their top NL Wild Card seat to either the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres, who are currently battling for first place in the NL West.
Things could seemingly not get worse for the slumping Cubs. But, oh yeah, they absolutely could get much worse. Here are three nightmare scenarios that should have Cubs fans on pins and needles for the rest of the season.
A pitching collapse
The Cubs are walking the tightrope when it comes to their pitching staff, counting on good fortune and a touch of magical thinking to keep everyone healthy and effective.
In the rotation, Matthew Boyd has established himself as the ace in the absence of Justin Steele. His 2.46 ERA has been a godsend for a staff sent into a bit of a free fall when Steele went down with a season-ending elbow injury and Shota Imanaga hit the IL for several weeks about a month later.
However, the 34-year-old Boyd, who has a history of injury and underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-2023, is at 142.2 innings pitched, his highest total since 2019. Last season with the Cleveland Guardians, he managed only 50.1 innings between the regular season and the postseason. Prior to the season, after signing him to a 2-year deal as a free agent, the Cubs targeted 120 innings as Boyd’s realistic season goal. Necessity has forced Boyd to go well beyond that target and there exists a distinct possibility of a breakdown at some point.
Also facing durability issues is rookie Cade Horton, who has been a true revelation, especially over his last several starts. The 23-year-old is at 114 innings between the minors and the majors (85 in Chicago and 29 in Iowa), well beyond what he’s thrown at any point of his young career.
In last year’s injury-shortened season, he could only muster 34.1 innings. In his previous three minor league seasons, he’s never pitched more than 88.1 innings. Manager Craig Counsell already has the young star on somewhat of a pitch count, attempting to negate the possibility of injury or fatigue.
Keep in mind, as well, that Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad are also coming off lengthy stints on the IL.
Going into the bullpen, there are several question marks, but none as potentially devastating as the possible mess when it comes to the closer. Daniel Palencia has had a breakthrough year, coming up from the minors in mid-April to eventually earn his spot as the closer. The 25-year-old Palencia has been spectacular in the role, but it needs to be pointed out that this is his first serious major league run and, most definitely, his first time in such a high-stress position. His 5.40 ERA in August so far could be a sign of mental/physical fatigue.
PCA injury
After a first half of the season full of accolades, record-setting, and talk of being an emerging legend, the second half has been a humbling and likely frustrating run for Pete Crow-Armstrong. Add to that the Cubs’ general offensive drought since late June, along with their tumble from first place, and you get a recipe for disaster when it comes to the young star. The 23-year-old PCA has noticeably been pressing of late, diving for uncatchable balls in center field and taking some additional gambles at the plate and on the bases. When a player presses too hard, accidents often follow. The last thing the Cubs would want is to lose Crow-Armstrong for the rest of this season or beyond.
No playoffs
It didn’t take long for the Brewers to put a lot of distance between themselves and the Cubs atop the NL Central. Lost in the first place takeover, however, is the fact that the Padres have also been on a tear. With the Padres and Dodgers now tied for first place in the NL West, the Cubs are the NL Wild Card no. 1 seat due only to a statistical technicality.
Both the Padres and Dodgers are a half-game better in the standings than the Cubs, who will soon most likely have to settle for the no. 2 Wild Card seat. Below the Cubs, the New York Mets are just 4.5 games behind and the Cincinnati Reds are 5 games behind. If the Cubs keep on their downward trajectory, they may find themselves out of the playoff picture entirely.
So, yes, things could get even worse. Cross your fingers.
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