The Chicago Cubs started the offseason with the goal of targeting a front-of-rotation starting pitcher. As the offseason progressed, though, that goal seemed to fade.
Instead, the team focused on adding an impact player (Kyle Tucker), a co-starting catcher (Carson Kelly), and increased bullpen depth.
They DID pick up a noteworthy starting pitcher in rehabbed lefty free agent Matthew Boyd, but the oft-injured 34-year-old is really more of a mid-to-low-rotation roll of the dice at this point. They also acquired veteran Colin Rea as a swing man option.
That top-of-rotation impact starter, however, never materialized.
Cubs Rotation Not Potent Enough?
Some will argue that the Cubs will be just fine with the starting crew they have and with Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga atop the rotation.
Eno Sarris of The Athletic, however, may beg to differ.
Sarris recently compiled his ranking of 151 major league starting pitchers and the Cubs’ starters didn’t rate all that well. Mind you, this was for fantasy league purposes, but the ability and perceived worth of the ranked pitchers does directly correlate to their actual real world performance.
Per Sarris, here is the ranking of the six Cubs listed:
35. Justin Steele
36. Shōta Imanaga
98. Matthew Boyd
122. Jameson Taillon
133. Ben Brown
140. Javier Assad
Averaged out, the Cubs starters sport a no. 94 ranking. That’s not very good for a team with deep postseason aspirations. By comparison, the starting crew of the NL Central Division rival Milwaukee Brewers averaged a 89.8 ranking.
Quantity over Quality?
The Cubs certainly have the horses for the race. There are a number of capable starting pitchers on the roster who can take the ball and do a fine job every fifth day. The operative word in that statement, though, may be “fine.” There’s a case to be made that the Cubs don’t really have a proven shutdown ace, other than Steele– and some may even dispute Steele’s “elite” status.
Hope Springs Internal?
Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation seems to share some of that skepticism regarding the Cubs rotation.
Per Cerami:
“For the starting rotation, the group has depth. There’s no doubt about that. Running down the list, you could reasonably go 9-10 guys deep before you’re just truly rolling the dice: Steele, Imanaga, Taillon, Boyd, Javier Assad, Collin Rea, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Brandon Birdsell. But at the top? And in the middle? They’re missing something – impact, velocity, top of the rotation upside.
Steele and Imanaga are legitimate, playoff-caliber starters. But after that, there is a whooooole lot of hoping. Hoping that Jameson Taillon is more like the guy he was last year than the guy he was in 2023. Hoping that Matthew Boyd’s eight starts in 2024 are a good sign of what he’ll do in 2025. Hoping that the prospects step up or that Craig Counsell can help this roster gobble up innings with a collection of middling arms the way he often did in Milwaukee.
That’s (partly) why they tried to sign Roki Sasaki or trade for Jesus Luzardo.”
At this point, it seems most likely that the Cubs will go with the starting pitchers they have and hope that a young player, like Brown or Horton, surprises with a breakthrough season. They’ll simultaneously be hoping that none of their established starters have an “off” season.
Time will tell if the Cubs’ inability to land a top-of-rotation starter will haunt them this season.
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